Vernon Croy
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals
This pick falls into one of my MLB systems and we are getting solid value here with the Nationals tonight. The Orioles are just 0-6 in Koji Ueharas (2-3, 4.34 ERA) last 6 starts and although I had the Orioles last night as my MLB Bookie Buster I look for the Nationals to bounce back Saturday night. The Orioles are just 3-11 in their last 14 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game and the Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 games when they score 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Orioles are just 6-22 in their last 28 games in game 2 of a series and they are just 6-23 in their last 29 interleague road games against a left starter. The Nationals are now 33-11 in their last 44 interleague home games against a team with a losing record and the Orioles are just 4-12 in their last 16 games after a win this season. Grab the value with the Washington Nationals as my MLB Free Play for Saturday night.
ALEX SMART
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona DBacks starting pitcher Dan Haren (3-4, 2.09 ERA) went 43-34 with a 3.64 ERA in 102 starts with Oakland from 2005-07 and will be very prepared for a top notch performance in his return to his old diggs, against his former team that he has had success in the past in his only start against them, garnering a stingy 1.29 ERA, while allowing four hits with eight strikeouts in seven innings in a 11-1 victory. In Harens last official start, on May 12, he allowed just three runs on six hits while striking out five , allowing no walks in seven innings against the Reds for his eighth straight quality start this season.This season, Haren owns the fifth-best ERA in baseball and leads Arizona with 56 strikeouts.
Meanwhile, his right handed pitching opponent, Edgar Gonzalez, is coming up from the minors after pitching at Triple-A Sacramento. The native of Monterrey, Mexico was average at best in his minor league outings, postings a 3-2 with a 5.22 ERA in seven starts at Sacramento. Gonzalez started last season in Arizona's starting rotation but was bumoed to the bullpen after six starts recording a 1-3 record along with a 6.00 ERA in 17 games.He has proven himself a sub par pitcher as is evident by a 14-21 mark with a 5.97 ERA in 80 Major League games, including 35 starts. With the pitching matchup very much favoring the DBacks in what many believe to be a pitchers park the DBacks are the right side in this spot on the moneyline. Final notes & Key Trends: The A's are 12-30 against a starting pitcher that averages 5 or more strikes per start dating back to last season. Diamondbacks are 11-4 in their last 15 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Diamondbacks are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. American League West. Athletics are 6-22 in their last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Athletics are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter . Diamondbacks are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Oakland. Road team is 8-0 in umpire Gale Scotts last 8 interleague games behind home plate. ........Play on the Arizona DBacks ( 0.5% of bankroll)
Scott Rickenbach
Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Under
Yesterday's 1-0 final was a sign of things to come here. The Braves Lowe has the stuff to be tough on a righty-dominated lineup and that's exactly what the Blue Jays possess. As for Toronto's Janssen, he's got great stuff and has been anxiously awaiting this opportunity. Atlanta has enjoyed some offensive explosions of late but they've truly been "all or nothing" in terms of run production. They've been held to 1 run or 0 runs in four of their last six games! As for the Blue Jays, they've averaged just 1.6 runs per game in their last five games. Yes, another "yawner" (unless you enjoy pitching) is likely to be on tap tonight. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Atlanta on Saturday
Tom Freese
Arizona Diamondbacks at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona starter Dan Haren has a better than 6-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. The Diamondbacks are 11-5 in the last 16 starts made by Haren if he is off a quality start in his last outing. The D'Backs are 5-1 their last 6 road games. Oakland is 11-27 their last 38 games after allowing two or less runs in their last game and they are 3-8 their last 11 Interleague games as underdogs. The A's are 6-22 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15 and they are 0-5 at home vs. the Diamondbacks. PLAY ON ARIZONA w/Haren
Wunderdog
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros
The Texas Rangers may be leading the American League West, but they have gotten there by taking advantage of their hitter-friendly home park, as they are just 10-11 on the road for the season. Scott Feldman has taken over for Vicente Padilla - out with an injury. Feldman has a 5.79 ERA in one start vs. the Astros and his innings will be limited, exposing the Rangers’ pen. Brian Moehler got off to a horrific start, but has found a groove pitching to a 3.18 ERA in his last three starts, and he has had success against the Rangers at 6-4 over his career. The Rangers are a different team on the road where they score more than two runs fewer than they do at home, so I like the Astros in this one.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
LOS (-130) vs ANA
The Dodgers, who wasted a solid outing from Clayton Kershaw, will now send Randy Wolf (2-1, 2.72) to the mound. The veteran left-hander is 1-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his last five starts. In his last outing, Wolf gave up two runs and six hits in a season-high 7 2-3 innings during the Dodgers' 3-2, 11-inning win over the New York Mets on Monday night. Look for the DODGERS to improve to 18-4 (+12.4 units) when playing in front of the hometown crowd!
Mr. A
Detroit Tigers -145
Boston Red Sox -175
Denver Nuggets -3½
GINA
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets
Go with Denver tonight at Mile High City. The Nuggets were able to make it difficult for the Lakers in Los Angeles. I predict it will be worse for them in Denver. The Nuggets have won 16 straight at the Pepsi Center and is 6-0 both straight-up and against the spread in the playoffs at home. The Lakers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.
Denver Nuggets -3½
Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers
Go with the roaring Tigers tonight at home. Detroit has won their last seven games and the last seven at Comerica Park. The Tigers will send Armando Galarraga to the hill. The right-hander has struggle as of late, 0-3 with a 10.90 ERA in his last four starts, but is 4-1 in his last 5 home starts and 4-0 in his last 4 interleague starts. Meanwhile, Colorado has lost five of their last seven games overall and the last four in Detroit. Additionally, they have dropped their last 7 interleague games. The Rockies will counter with Jason Marquis. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 7.64 ERA in his last three starts.
Detroit Tigers -145
Johnny Guild
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets have been impressive at home during the regular season and playoffs, not to mention very lucrative. Denver is 12-0 ATS at home in the playoffs, winning by double digits. If they continue to play the Lakers as they did in the first two games, it will be a daunting task for the Lakers.
Denver Nuggets -3.5
BEN BURNS
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees
PICK: Under 11.5
The majority of the betting public is backing the 'over' in this afternoon's Phillies/Yankees clash. In my opinion, this has created some reasonably solid line value with the 'under.'
Yesterday's game snuck below the total with a score of 7-3. The perception is that these teams couldn't possibly be "held down" twice in a row, not in new hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. A look at the Yankees' recent games would suggest otherwise. Looking at New York's last 12 games and we find that 10 of them finished with 11 runs or less, nine of them finishing with 10 or less. As for the Phillies, they've now seen three of their last four fall below the total.
Happ goes for the champs and he's had some success out of the bullpen, recording a stellar 2.49 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Note that Happ did make several (five) starts for the Phillies last summer. He allowed two earned runs or less in each of the last four of them and all four of those games stayed below the total. All five of his starts finished with 11 runs or fewer.
Pettitte goes for New York and he's still more than capable. He wasn't all that sharp last time out but still only allowed four runs through six complete innings. He was much better in his most recent road start, allowing just two runs (one earned) and five hits through six complete innings at Toronto.
While he hasn't seen them for a few years, Pettitte has been dominant the last few times that he faced the Phillies. Looking at his last three starts against Philadelphia and we find that the Yankees' southpaw has allowed just two earned runs in 19 innings. All three games finished with eight runs or less with the 'under' going 2-0-1. Note that Rollins, Ibanez, Utley and Howard are hitting a combined .233 (10 for 43) with just one home run and nine strikeouts against Pettitte. Consider going 'under' the high total.
Dwayne Bryant
Toronto at Atlanta
The Jays cost us 2 units (actually 3.3 units with juice) last night when they couldn't score a single run. This play isn't about me wanting payback, but it is about how the Jays are struggling. The Jays are batting .245 during their 4-game slide, including .133 (4 for 30) with runners in scoring position. Derek Lowe (5-2, 3.58) looks to rebound from his first loss in nearly a month for the Braves. Despite another strong performance, Lowe was unable to win his fifth straight start Monday against Colorado as he allowed two runs and three hits over eight innings in a 5-1 loss. The veteran right-hander pitched at least seven innings and allowed three runs or fewer for the fourth time in his past five starts. Lowe is 1-1 with a 2.49 ERA in his past three outings against Toronto, so I expect him to get back into the win column tonight against a struggling Jays lineup. Take Atlanta and Lowe over Toronto and Janssen for a half-unit.
GREG SHAKER
Cleveland Indians at Cincinnati Reds
Play: Reds
Note: I am not a huge proponent of Interleague Records and how some teams do better in this situation but I am a Huge Proponent of (LPS) commonly known as Little Penis Syndrone. That is what the Reds have and that is why they play the Indians very well when they do play them. It is all about the Press that Cleveland gets verses that of Cincy and the Reds just don't like it. That is perhaps why they have beaten the Tribe the last 7 of 8 times they have played including last night's win. We have 2 kids pitching tonight in this contest and both have not lived up the hype. I am not sure how either of them will do and I don't think it is important. What is important is that LPS Thing and also where these squads have been going this year. Cleveland is currently in the toilet as they have struggled all year with their second line pitching and in part that is why they have had trouble winning games away from home. OK wait. They have had trouble winning games anywhere. While their relief throwers are doing a better job of late, I am not convinced that will continue. I am convinced that Cincy's Pen is much better and more consistant. I am also convinced that this LPS Thing is to our benefit. And I am convinced that this betting line is a good one considering the malady that we have with the home team. Therefore I will play them with Vim and Vigor.
O.C. Dooley
Indians / Reds OVER 11
Last night these two teams combined to put only 4 runs on the scoreboard even though the posted total was up at the 10’ run mark. But this evening in game two of the “battle of ohio” we have a pair of rookie hurlers on the mound who are a bit suspect. Homer Bailey has been one of Cincinnati’s highest rated prospects for quite some time but has been unable to harness his quality skills up to this point. Due to an injury to All-Star starter Edinson Volquez (back spasms), Bailey has been called up to the major leagues once again. The problem is Bailey in the minors this season (3-5, 4.57 ERA) put up some suspect statistics. Making his second major league start for Cleveland is rookie David Huff who was pounded to the tune of SEVEN runs in just 3.2 innings of an ugly professional debut. Despite last night’s low scoring result, the Indians are 10-2 OVER/ROAD this season with a “double digit” posted total. In the past three years Cincinnati is 24-12 OVER/HOME in the month of May.