SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Cleveland (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) at (3) Orlando (11-7 SU, 9-9 ATS)
The Cavaliers, the No. 1 overall seed in the playoffs, continue their quest to keep their season alive when they travel to Amway Arena for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Magic, who remain just one win away from their second-ever trip to the NBA Finals.
In Game 5 Thursday night, Cleveland gave away all of a 22-point first half lead, but LeBron James either scored or assisted on all of the Cavs’ fourth-quarter baskets as they earned a 112-102 victory laying 7½ points at home. James finished with a triple-double of 37 points, 14 rebounds and 12 assists, and four teammates scored in double figures, including Mo Williams (24 points), who hit 6 of 9 from three-point range. The victory marked the first time in this series –and the first time in eight overall meetings with the Magic this season – that the Cavs beat the spread.
Hedo Turkoglu led Orlando with 29 points in Game 5, and Dwight Howard had 24 points and 10 rebounds before fouling out for the third time in this series. The Magic shot a respectable 45.8 percent from the floor (33 of 72) but made just eight of their 25 three-point tries (32 percent), while allowing Cleveland to shoot 50 percent from the floor (38 of 76 overall, 9 of 18 from long distance).
The Magic are still a sterling 14-2 ATS in the last 16 clashes in this rivalry, and they’ve cashed in five straight at home against Cleveland. This year, Orlando is 7-1 ATS (5-3 SU) against the Cavaliers. Also, the underdog is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 head-to-head clashes.
Cleveland is 31-16 SU (25-22 ATS) on the road this year, including 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) in the playoffs, with both losses coming in Games 3 and 4 in Florida. Orlando is 38-11 SU (28-21 ATS) at Amway Arena, including 6-2 SU (5-3 ATS) in the postseason.
The Cavaliers, who are 33-6 SU in their last 39 starts dating to the regular season, are on positive ATS runs of 12-5 overall, 10-2 after a spread-cover and 10-3 following a SU win. However, Mike Brown’s troops are still just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 outings against Southeast Division opponents, and they’ve failed to cover the number in four straight as a road pup.
The Magic have cashed in six of their last seven overall (5-2 SU), going 3-0 SU and ATS at home during this spurt. They are on further ATS upswings of 10-4 overall, 5-1 at Amway Arena, 9-2 against the Central Division, 4-1 as a playoff chalk and a lengthy 51-21-1 following a SU loss.
The total has gone high in four of five games in this series and five of the last six contests overall between these teams, and the over for Cleveland is on streaks of 7-1 in the conference finals and 5-1 with the Cavaliers catching less than five points. On the flip side, the under is on runs for the Cavs of 5-1 on the road and 7-2 after a SU win, and the under for Orlando is on stretches of 8-3 at home, 7-1 as a favorite, 5-0 when laying less than five points, 8-1 after a non-cover and 7-1 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Cincinnati (26-21) at Milwaukee (28-20)
The Brewers ended the Reds’ four-game winning streak Friday and now send David Bush (3-1, 3.92 ERA) to the hill to battle Cincinnati’s Aaron Harang (5-4, 3.36) as this three-game weekend set between N.L. Central rivals resumes at Miller Park.
Milwaukee won Friday night’s opener 3-2 and has now taken three of the last four over the Reds. The win was just the Brewers’ second in their last six games, and they were held to three runs or less for the seventh straight contest. They’ve also now gone 10 straight games without getting more than four runs in a contest and they’ve managed just seven runs in the first four games of the current homestand. On the bright side, Milwaukee is on hot streaks of 13-5 at home, 18-6 against the N.L. Central, 17-5 against teams with a winning record and 18-6 as a home favorite.
While the Reds’ four-game winning streak came to an end last night, they are still on streaks of 6-2 against N.L. Central foes, 6-2 in the second game of a series and 5-2 against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati also has won eight of its last 12 at Miller Park and it is 5-2 in Harang’s last seven outings in Milwaukee.
On Monday, Harang allowed three runs on 10 hits in five innings to beat the Astros 8-5. He was dominant in two starts against the Brewers last season allowing a total of two runs on nine hits in a combined 16 innings as the Reds won 4-3 and 4-1. However, the Reds are just 3-13 in Harang’s last 16 road starts and 1-8 in his last nine when visiting an opponent a winning record.
The Brewers weres riding a six-game winning streak with Bush on the hill until Sunday when he allowed four runs on five hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 6-3 loss in Minnesota. In two starts at Miller Park in 2009, the right-hander has allowed seven runs (six earned) on 13 hits in 13 1/3 innings. Milwaukee is on stretches of 36-16 with Bush on the mound at home, 13-3 when he starts as a favorite and 18-4 when he starts at home against teams with a winning record.
Bush faced the Reds three times last season with the Brewers going 1-2, and both losses were at home. With Bush pitching, Milwaukee has lost six of seven against the Reds dating back to 2006.
The under is 11-5-1 in Harang’s last 17 outings and 5-1-1 in his last seven on the road. The under is also is 4-1 in Bush’s last five outings overall, but the over is 13-4-1 in Bush’s last 18 as a home favorite and 11-4-1 in his last 16 when he faces N.L. Central rivals.
Cincinnati has stayed under the total in 13 of its last 19 road games and four of its last five as a road ‘dog, but otherwise the Reds are on “over” runs of 8-3 in the second game of a series, 5-0 on Saturday and 8-1 against N.L. Central teams. Milwaukee is on “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 11-4 at home, 10-2 as a home favorite and 5-1 against right-handed hurlers. In this rivalry, the over is 4-2 in the last six clashes overall and 9-0-1 the last 10 times Bush has faced the Reds.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (28-21) at Toronto (28-23)
The Blue Jays will try to make it two in a row over the Red Sox when they send southpaw Brian Tallet (2-3, 4.31 ERA) to the mound opposite Brad Penny (5-1, 5.96) inside the Rogers Centre in Toronto.
Toronto ended a nine-game losing skid with a 6-3 win over Boston on Friday, also ending a four-game losing skid to the Red Sox dating back to last season. Toronto has now won five straight and 14 of 18 in Canada and it is 44-21 at home dating back to last year. However, the Blue Jays remain in slumps of 1-8 against A.L. East foes and 2-6 against the Red Sox dating to last season.
Boston is just 2-3 on its current road trip and 3-7 in its last 10 on the road overall, but the Red Sox are still on positive streaks of 14-5 against winning teams, 4-1 against A.L. East teams and 10-3 against left-handed starters.
Despite a 5.81 ERA on the highway, Penny is 2-1 as a visitor, including a 6-5 win in Minnesota on Monday when he allowed three runs on six hits in 5 1/3 innings. He faced the Blue Jays 10 days ago and held them to two runs on nine hits in 6 2/3 innings of an 8-3 Boston win. In five career starts against Toronto, Penny’s teams have never lost and he’s held the Jays to two runs or less in four of the five outings.
Tallet has a 2.66 ERA at home but hasn’t gotten a decision in 20 1/3 innings of work. The Blue Jays are 0-3 in Tallet’s last three starts even though he’s pitched at least six innings each time and allowing two earned runs in each contest. He started in Boston 11 days ago and gave up two runs on four hits in six innings of a 2-1 Blue Jays’ loss. In two career starts against the Red Sox Tallet has allowed a combined two runs on eight hits in 12 innings of work.
The over is 6-2-1 in Penny’s last nine starts overall, but the under is 4-0 in Tallet’s last four efforts against A.L. East opponents.
For Boston, the over is 13-6 in its last 19 against southpaws and 11-3-1 in its last 15 Saturday contests, but the beyond that, the Sox sport “under” trends of 11-3-1 overall, 7-1-1 on the road and 6-2 against teams with a winning record. Toronto is on “under” streaks of 6-2 at home, 9-3 against A.L. East teams and 10-4 against right-handed starters. Finally, six of the last eight meetings between these squads have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
Jimmy The Moose
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
The A's have lost 3 in a row and that includes two to the Rangers on Friday. Texas has won 6 of their last 8 games overall. Oakland is 2-9 in their last 11 games as an underdog. The A's have lost 6 of Anderson's 8 starts this season. Texas is 10-1 in their last 11 games as a favorite. The Rangers are 11-2 in their last 13 home games. Oakland is 4-12 in their last 16 trips to Texas. The Rangers have been red hot at home and they'll take this one.
Play on: Texas
VEGAS EXPERTS
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
Despite the 5-2 win Friday night, the Mariners bats are weak right now, averaging just 3.7 runs per game while hitting .253 as a team. Against righties, it gets even worse as the scoring average dips down to 3.4 runs per game and the team batting average goes down to .246. That's no good against "diamond in the rough" starter Matt Palmer, who has seen the Angels win all six of his starts to date. Even with yesterday's win, Seattle has won just 8 of 23 in Anaheim.
Play on: LA Angels
Frank Jordan
Seattle Mariners vs. LAA Angels
Play: Seattle Mariners
Hernandez and Palmer are a combined 10-3 as they square off in LA. Seattle was able to be Lackey in game one of the series Friday night. Look for Hernandez to pitch a gem and shut down the potent Angel offense. Play Seattle
Cajun Sports
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Detroit Tigers
Baltimore looks to keep their winning streak going on Saturday night they have taken the first two games of a four-game set versus the Detroit Tigers and their last five overall. Baltimore will send Jeremy Guthrie to the bump with his 4-4 W/L record and ERA of 4.90 on the season. The right-hander has gone 1-4 W/L with a 6.26 ERA in his previous seven starts. Guthrie is 1-0 W/L with a 4.85 ERA in one start and three relief appearances against Detroit. The Tigers hope to end the O’s winning streak and they will send one of the major’s hottest pitchers to the hill on Saturday night. Justin Verlander is 5-2 W/L with an ERA of 3.55 on the year but the right-hander is 5-0 W/L with a 0.85 ERA in his last six starts, striking out sixty in 42 1/3 innings of work. Verlander has been solid in four starts versus this Orioles team posting a record of 3-0 W/L and an ERA of only 1.29. In his last outing on Monday Verlander allowed five hits while striking out eight in seven scoreless innings in a 13 to 1 win over the Royals. Baltimore is 20-41 W/L (-18.9) in home games versus an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better the last 3 seasons. The Orioles are 15-36 W/L when facing a team with a winning record and 20-51 W/L when installed as a home underdog of +150 or less. The Tigers are 37-18 W/L as a favorite of -150 or less and 18-6 W/L their last twenty-four as a road favorite. Because of the O’s current winning streak we are getting decent line value with one of the league’s best pitchers so lay the chalk with the Tigers as Verlander and his teammates take down the Orioles on Saturday night.
Graded Selection: 2* Detroit Tigers 5 Baltimore Orioles 2
Craig Trapp
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: New York Yankees
What a great Friday for Craig with his premium picks going 3-1. Unfortunately we ended our free play winning streak but today Craig loves, loves, loves his free play. Also Craig looks to continue his NBA winning streak at 4 games so make sure you don't miss his premium play. Lets look at today's free play breakdown.
Records
New York Yankees 28-20, 14-11 away (Sabathia 4-3, 3.42 ERA)
Cleveland Indians 21-29, 11-12 home (Carmona 2-4, 6.42 ERA)
Betting Trends
-Yankees are 12-3 in their last 15 overall.
-Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
-Indians are 2-5 in Carmonas last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
-Indians are 3-7 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
Sabathia will pitch on Saturday for the NYY and after a slow start he has been much better. In his last 4 starts he has only given up 6 runs an has pitched 32 innings and was 3-1 in that stretch of games. The NYY have been on fire the last 15 games only losing three times and averaging over 6 runs per game. For Cleveland they go to Carmona who has been very up and down this year. His last three games he has been down right horrible giving up 15 runs in only 13 innings. Not good news for the Tribe as the NYY will be scoring a ton of runs on Saturday. Run Line is a great play today as Sabathia will shut down an average Indians lineup, and the NYY will score at least 7 runs today. SCORE NYY 7 - CLE 2
Mike Rose
Orlando Magic -2
The Cavaliers faced elimination for the first time in the 2009 NBA Playoffs in Game 5, but put their fishing poles on hold by defeating the Magic. Cleveland finally found a way to beat Orlando by closing out on their three-point shooters defensively; while getting its role players going offensively. Cavs F LeBron James scored 37 points to mark the second time he has failed to reach 40 in this series; incidentally, Cleveland won both of those contests. If the Cavaliers are to win in Orlando tonight they will need another solid performance from the supporting cast and a bench that scored 15 points in Game 5. The Cavs cover on Thursday was their first against the Magic in the L/10 meetings.
The Magic have the Cavs right where I predicted it before this series began and sure took some heat for being a homer. This game is a must-win for Orlando to reach the NBA Finals or they will be in deep trouble if there is a Game 7 in Cleveland. Magic F Rashard Lewis powered his team to a victory at home in Game 4 and turned in another solid performance on Thursday putting up 15 points with eight rebounds. Lewis has made every crucial shot of this series for Orlando and will be a big key to its success tonight in closing out Cleveland. The Magic have covered the L/5 spreads at home against the Cavs and are 4-1 ATS overall in this series.
My pick before the series was the Orlando Magic in six games and that hasn't changed a bit as Cleveland winning games two and five on their home floor was part of the plan. Orlando has found a way to defeat Cleveland on its home floor for the last two seasons and I don't expect tonight to be any different. Look for the Magic to take control of this contest early and answer any charge the Cavaliers might mount late in the game.
James Patrick Sports
Penguins vs Red Wings
In the NHL Stanley Cup Finals Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection is Pittsburgh Penguins in the series as they look to avenge a 4 game sweep to the Detroit Red Wings from last seasons Finals.
Marc Lawrence
St Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
When the Cardinals send Cris Carpenter to the mound in San Francisco this evening they will do so knowing he is back in commanding KW form with 2 walks and 16 strikeouts in his last three starts. He is also 3-1 with a 3.04 ERA in his career team starts in this series. Look for Carpenter to improve to 14-2 in his last sixteen road starts in May here tonight.
Red Dog Sports
Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays
Play Tampa Bay
David Price starts at home where the Rays are 70-30 in their last 100 games. Liriano of the Twins has an ERA of 8.36 in his last 3 and the team is 3-7 in his 10 starts. The Twins are just 5-15 on the road. We won with the Twins at home vs. the Rex Sox on Tuesday and Wednesday and go against them on the road today!
Jeff Benton
For Saturday’s free play in baseball, we’ll back the Marlins and Josh Johnson against the Mets in early action from Citi Field.
Johnson has faced the Mets twice this season and had the unfortunate luck of drawing Johan Santana as his opponent on both occasions. Despite that cruel twist of fate, Johnson delivered two solid outings – a complete-game, one-run effort at home and a three-run, six-inning effort on the road – and the Marlins won both contests by scores of 4-3 and 2-1.
Today, Johnson not only avoids Santana, he gets to go up against journeyman Tim Redding, he of the 0-1 record and 6.75 ERA in two starts, both of them Mets losses. Last year with Washington, Redding faced the Marlins a whopping six times and went 1-4 with a ghastly 7.76 ERA. Florida won five of the six games and Redding didn’t so much has have a single quality start!
On the flip side, including this year’s two wins, the Fish are 6-1 in Johnson’s seven lifetime starts against the Mets (3-0 in New York), with the hard-throwing right-hander posting a 5-0 mark and a 1.97 ERA. This year, Florida is 7-3 in games started by Johnson, and he’s allowed three runs or fewer in nine of those 10 games.
One last reason to love Johnson in this one: He doesn’t have to deal with two of New York’s better offensive players (Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are both on the D.L.). This is a ridiculously cheap price to be laying with stud like Johnson matching up against a crappy pitcher like Redding. Jump all over Florida here!
7♦ FLORIDA
Matt Rivers
For Saturday lay a little wood with the Cardinals.
I am the last person to normally lay some decent coin on the road but with that said how can you not back the visitors in this game from San Francisco!?!?!?
Chris Carpenter is as injury prone these days as they come but with that said, when the guy takes the hill he doesn't give up runs, literally! The former Cy Young award winner has yet to have an opposing player cross the plate and just took a perfect game into the seventh inning in Milwaukee against a very competent Brewer squad. The bottom line with Carpenter is that he is a beast and will be on his game once again today.
Barry Zito has improved a bit this season and is no longer a total disaster but the lefty is not close to being the Cy Young pitcher that he used to be and with Ankiel and Ludwick back in the fold to help out Albert the Redbirds are the same team that started the first month of the season in such fine form.
The Giants have been winning some games of late and at home have actually been pretty good but let's be honest here, San Francisco is a light hitting team that is just not good without Lincecum or Cain holding things down on the bump. The Giants are offensively challenged with very little blue chip talent and when compared to the clear superior Cardinals with Carpenter are in a ton of trouble today!
If this game ends 7-1 I would not bat an eye!
Jake Timlin
Free action on the NBA hardwood I look for yet another series game going HIGH between Cleveland & Orlando. You see in a series that has going over the total in 4 of the last 5 games it is clear that both offenses are getting the upper hand in this series. I mean even going back to the regular season the over has cashed in 5 of the last 6 games in this series as the Oddsmakers are given both defenses way to much respect. Well given yet another total posted under two hundred the Oddsmakers have erred once again as I fully expect for both teams to top the century mark for the third straight game. Flat out, with the way Orlando is able to score on the Cavaliers mixed in the Cavs all but unstoppable when LeBron touches the ball I fully expect a high scoring game tonight.
PICK: Cleveland & Orlando OVER
Sports Gambling Hotline
Cleveland at ORLANDO
We are on a 10-5 comp play run the last 15 days!
Another NBA total tonight, as we will play the Cleveland-Orlando game OVER the posted total.
The last pair in this series, and 4 of 5 overall in this Eastern Conference Finals have eclipsed the posted price.
That makes 5 of the last 6 series meetings having gone OVER the total, and it also puts Cleveland on a 7-1 OVER run their last 8 conference finals games.
With Cleveland facing elimination once again, expect the Cavaliers to do whatever it takes to send this series back home on Monday. That means we will see some points on the Amway Arena scoreboard tonight.
Play on the OVER.
4♦ OVER
Bobby Maxwell
Cincinnati at MILWAUKEE -125
Got the FREE winner Friday night with the Blue Jays at home over the Red Sox and we'll deliver another comp play tonight as we go with the Brewers and lay the chalk with them at home against the Reds.
The Brewers love playing at home behind starter David Bush (3-1, 3.92 ERA) and we're going to cash in with it tonight. Meanwhile the Reds can't win on the road when Aaron Harang (5-4, 3.36 ERA) takes the hill.
Milwaukee won Friday's series opener 3-2 and snapped the Reds' four-game winning streak. The Brewers are on hot streaks of 13-5 at home, 18-6 against N.L. Central foes, 17-5 against teams with a winning record and 18-6 as a home favorite.
But more importantly, with Bush on the mound, Milwaukee is on rolls of 36-16 at home, 13-3 when he starts as a favorite and 18-4 when he starts a thome against a team with a winning record. They are 6-1 in his last seven starts overall.
On the opposite side, Harang has been brutal on the road and the Reds are just 3-13 in his last 16 on the highway and 1-8 in his last nine on the road against teams with a winning record.
Even though the Brewers' offense has struggled lately, they will get enough runs for Bush tonight to score the victory. Bush dominates on the Miller Park mound and he'll show more of that in this one.
Go ahead and lay the chalk, this one is an easy play on Milwaukee with Bush on the hill.
2♦ MILWAUKEE