Michael Cannon
NY Yankees at CLEVELAND
Take the Yankees on the run line tonight over the Indians.
Obviously this is a game that C. C. Sabathia will be charged up for. But it also comes at the right time for him as he’s hitting his groove right now and the Yankee offense is clicking on all cylinders.
Fausto Carmona will get the nod for Cleveland and he’s been getting tattooed this year. The right-hander is 2-4 with a 6.42 ERA on the year and he’s been pounded over his last three starts, sporting an ERA of 9.24 over that span.
Sabathia has been consistently solid over his last four starts, going 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA.
New York has won 13 of 16, including last night’s 3-1 win in the series opener.
Take the Yankees on the run line as they deliver the big win.
3♦ NY YANKEES -1 1/2
Craig Davis
I lean towards the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight to extend this series to 7 games, getting back to Cleveland for a chance to give us the series we all wanted to see in the first place... the Lakers and the Cavs. It seems to me as if the Cavs just haven't given full effort for 48 minutes in one single game in this series, yet they've won two games and had huge leads in three of them. I realize they haven't won a game in Orlando yet and have definitely had their struggles vs. the Magic the last few seasons, but this is "do or die" and you have to expect the Cavs realize the importance of this elimination game. For whatever reason, they simply haven't played the type of defense we saw from them all season, and I keep thinking, "this is the game they put it all together"... yet is hasn't happened. Tonight, with the urgency of elimination, I have to think this team will come to play for the full 48 minutes, sending this series back to Cleveland for a pivotal Game 7. Though Cleveland hasn't really had an answer for Dwight Howard, Orlando hasn't had an answer for LeBron James, and he did a FANTASTIC job of getting his teammates involved in Game 5, dishing out 12 assists while grabbing 14 boards en route to a playoff triple-double. The underdog has covered 11 of the last 16 meetings between these two and I expect that trend to continue tonight, with Cleveland winning outright to force Game 7.
3♦ CLEVELAND
Free Selection from Totals4U
Saturday's free selection:
San Diego/Colorado under 11
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
270 - 175 - long term winning run 60 %
15 wins -5 losses run = 75% short term
SAT: LA DODGERS
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EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
Game: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic
(523) Cleveland Cavaliers +2
I like LeBron and Company to find a way to pullout the
road win and force a game seven back in Cleveland.
Take the points with the Cavs.
2009 Free Selections Record 80-66 (54.8%)
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8)
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
OAK (+120) vs TEX
Strictly a value play here: Brandon McCarthy, though, is 0-3 with an 11.57 ERA in five games - three starts - against the A?s. He lost to them again May 7, lasting just four innings after surrendering seven runs and seven hits in a 9-4 loss at Oakland. Brett Anderson (2-4, 4.98) is looking to win a third consecutive start. The 21-year-old left-hander has a 2.25 ERA in his last two outings after going 0-4 with a 6.03 ERA in his six previous starts. That stretch included a solid performance while not getting a decision against the Rangers on April 28, holding them to three runs - one earned - and three hits in five innings of a 5-4 win. Anderson was impressive Monday, yielding one run and six hits in six innings of a 6-1 victory over Seattle.
Vernon Croy
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Cubs are 14-3 in Ryan Dempster's (3-3, 4.99 ERA) last 17 starts in game 3 of a series. The Cubs are also 20-6 in Dempster's last 26 home starts and they are 7-1 in Dempster's last 8 starts after they allow 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Dodgers send Eric Stults (4-1, 4.29) to the mound who is just 0-1 with an ERA of 7.94 in his last 4 road starts and he has struggled on the road this season with an ERA of 6.45 over 5 starts while lasting just an average of 4.5 innings per start. Stults has struggled to find the strike zone walking 18 batters over just 22.3 innings on the road and his control will get him in trouble today against this Cubs line-up. Take the Chicago Cubs as my MLB Free Play for Saturday afternoon.
Rocketman
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Boston Red Sox
Boston comes in with a 28-21 record this year while Toronto is now 28-23 on the season. Toronto is now 1-9 their last 10 games after a win last night. Boston bullpen has a 2.88 ERA overall this year and a 2.93 ERA on the road this season. Brad Penny is 5-1 overall this year, 2-1 on the road and 2-0 his last 3 starts. Penny is 3-0 with a 3.23 ERA overall vs Toronto since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Boston today!
DAVE MALINSKY
Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Over 9
We have written about Francisco Liriano twice this week, first in cashing a 4* ticket with the Red Sox against him on Monday, and then in a TOTB column a few days later, and at this point the numbers are becoming most striking. First, the 2-6/6.42 is beginning to look like an accurate reflection of just who he is right now. But when we go a step further it looks even worse. Liriano has managed to work to a respectable 4.75 tune in all first meetings against an opponent this season, but in four “second looks” he has been tattooed to an ugly 11.77 count. It shows that once offenses actually get to see what he is throwing, instead of remembering back to the dominant pitcher he was in the past, they find that there is nothing special at all about his offerings. They particularly learn to lay off of that low and inside slider to right-handers, which usually breaks out of the strike zone, and when Liriano can not get hitters to swing at that pitch his arsenal is extremely limited. This will be the second look for the Tampa Bay lineup, which should have them poised to wait him out, and off of Monday’s drubbing by Boston (11 of the 22 batters he faced got hits), and with a 1-3/7.62 road performance so far, his confidence will be at a low ebb.
The Twins at least have a chance to win here, however, because David Price is facing some confidence issues as well. Despite being staked to a 10-0 lead at Cleveland in his first start of the season he could not even hang around long enough to qualify for a “W”, lasting just 3.1 innings and laboring to 100 pitches. We have not seen many mistakes from Joe Maddon the past two seasons but that was one of them – he wanted so badly for his young left-hander to get a win that he left him in beyond the projected pitch count, and considering how badly he was faring he never should have even flirted with getting near 100 pitches. He had not worked beyond the fifth inning in any of his eight AAA starts, which produced an uninspiring 1-4/3.93 over 34.1 innings, with 18 walks. Price has great stuff, and may be special some day, but it is going to take time, and a patient Minnesota lineup will force him to bring more precision to the mound today than he may have at this point.
In a game that could see the middle relief corps in play early for both teams, there is major potential for a big inning or two.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Atlanta Braves
The Braves snapped their losing streak in a big way last night with ten runs from the offense. Atlanta is 11-6 this season against left-handed starters and the Atlanta lineup has posted significantly better numbers against southpaws this season. Arizona starter Doug Davis is 2-6 on the season and though he owns a respectable 3.77 ERA he has struggled with walks in recent games, walking nine over his past two starts, while allowing ten runs. Arizona has lost five straight Davis starts and the Diamondbacks bullpen has not been of great assistance with a 5.19 ERA. With Jon Garland being removed in the third inning last night the Arizona bullpen was worked heavily last night as well.
Atlanta was a terrible road team last season but that has changed this year with a winning record and Arizona is seven games below .500 in home games on the season. The Braves have been a slightly better team in terms of overall record and the Braves have allowed far fewer runs on the season compared to Arizona. The Braves have been playing strong ball overall in recent weeks, winning five consecutive series in May before losing a few close games in San Francisco. Against a much less stingy Arizona staff the Braves should find plenty of scoring opportunities, particularly in a favorable match-up versus a left-hander. Atlanta beat Davis and the Diamondbacks earlier this season in this same pitching match-up.
Javier Vazquez has delivered an outstanding season so far, posting 78 strikeouts and just 15 walks. Vazquez already has six quality starts and he was dominant against Arizona earlier this year. Vazquez has also pitched well on the road with a 3.16 ERA and a 3-1 record. His season WHIP is just 1.14, one of the best marks in the NL. Arizona has not been producing on offense and the key catalyst in the lineup Felipe Lopez appears to still be banged up so this is a favorable situation for Atlanta as just a slight road favorite.
Tom Freese
St Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: Under
St. Louis is 20-8-1 UNDER their last 29 games and they are 6-1 UNDER vs. lefty starters. The Cardinals are 12-0-1 UNDER on Saturday with Chris Carpenter on the mound. Carpenter has allowed 1 run total in 23 innings of work this year. San Francisco starter Barry Zito has allowed 13 runs in 7 starts this year. The Giants are 8-0 UNDER with Zito on the mound on Saturday and the are 15-5-2 UNDER off a win. San Francisco are 12-3 UNDER after allowing 2 or less runs in their last game. 10* PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Zito vs. Carpenter)
LT Profits
Florida Marlins @ New York Mets
Josh Johnson of the Florida Marlins came back from Tommy John surgery much better than most experts expected, but he now looks better than ever, and we look for Johnson to key an Under vs. Tim Redding and the New York Mets today.
Johnson is 3-1 with a terrific 2.67 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 10 starts covering 67.1 innings, and he has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts and in nine of his 10 outings this year. He has also been fantastic against the Mets, as he has six Quality Starts in seven career starts against them including allowing four runs in two starts against them this season, and he allowed only four runs in his one non-quality effort against them.
Now Redding did not pitch well in his second start as a Met after posting a Quality Start in his New York debut, but that was almost expected. Remember that he just came off the Disabled List to take that first start on May 18, and the second start off of an injury-induces layoff is usually the toughest due to natural muscle soreness. Now that Redding has gotten that stinker out of the way, he should return to his normal level tonight.
Besides, the Marlins have tailed off considerably after a very hot start, so look for both offenses to struggle this early afternoon.
Pick: Marlins/Mets Under 8.5
Wunderdog
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
The name on the back of the uniform sometimes holds the line down on the opposing team. Francisco Liriano has one of those names, but since his injury, he simply has not been anything close to what earned him the reputation. Three years ago, Liriano looked like he was going to match Johan Santana win for win, but after surgery, he has lost three MPH off his pitches, and a whole lot of confidence to go with it. The 144 Ks in 120 innings has been replaced by less than a strikeout per inning. And the 32 walks in 120 innings, have almost been matched in 54 innings this season, as he is becoming bat shy - not trusting his stuff. Tampa will go with David Price, one of the top prospects in baseball and was nervous his first time out, but should settle down here. The Twins are the worst road team in baseball, so I'll back Tampa in this one.
Freddy Wills
Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets
Play: Florida Marlins
Well we know the story with Johnson and how he dominates the Mets. Redding will be looking for a bounce back against the Marlins as he struggled vs. the Red Sox. Normally I like to take pitchers in back bounce mode, but not here.
I was right when I said Pelfrey would have a dominant performance last night. However I thought the Mets would score more runs against the LHP, but they did not. I think it is a sign of things to come unfortunately for the Mets. With Reyes, Church, and Delgado out they just can't get by with a thin lineup. It will certainly catch up with them today when they face a pitcher they already struggle against.
Lastly, Redding is 1-4 in 7GS last 3 years with a 7.76 ERA vs. the marlins. He loves pitching during the day over that time, but I still like for him to struggle as Ramirez and Hermedia both are hitting over .500 vs. the RHP.
Take the Marlins
Stephen Nover
BAL / DET Under 9
Who's the hottest pitcher in baseball right now? You can't be faulted for automatically saying Zack Greinke. But you can also argue for Justin Verlander.
Verlander is 5-0 with a 0.85 ERA in his last six starts. His strikeout-to-hit count is 60-to-24. He's only allowed 10 walks during this span. Verlander has a strong track record against Baltimore, too. In four starts versus the Orioles, he's 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA. Detroit's key bullpen arms are rested.
The key to making this under work, though, is Baltimore starter, Jeremy Guthrie. He's 4-4 with a 4.90 ERA. On the surface, this isn't very impressive. But keep in mind, Guthrie has pitched against teams in the toughest division, the AL East. He has faced very strong offenses going against the Yankees three times, the Blue Jays twice while also facing the Red Sox, Rays, Rangers and White Sox.
Guthrie is off a confidence-building victory against Toronto. He is 3-2 with a 3.75 ERA at home. The Tigers have scored three or fewer runs in five of their last seven games. Nobody in the Detroit lineup has more than five career at-bats against Guthrie.
I can see Guthrie matching Verlander in a well-pitched game that goes under this total.
I had to laugh when I saw this posted on another forum
" Im in another forum that copies all the plays from here "
In that forum you can find this entire thread post for post 😀