Schools to Watch
By Bodog
The Holidays are here, and all is indeed quiet with just four contests on the schedule for college basketball. It’ll be a slow weekend as well; business picks up again Monday with a full slate. It’s the unofficial halfway point of the season, and a good time to look ahead to what might transpire in 2010.
1) Kansas (11-0 straight up, 5-3 against the spread): It’s been smooth sailing so far for Bill Self's team, although KU has had its way with small fry for most of the first semester; the toughest matchup was a 57-55 victory over Memphis in November. This is a legitimate championship contender, but the betting value might not be there once the meat of the Big 12 schedule kicks in.
2) Texas (11-0 SU, 7-2 ATS): As long as Texas is playing in the shadow of Kansas, there should be money to be made on its betting lines. The Longhorns 7-2 ATS record includes convincing wins over North Carolina (+7) and Michigan State (+9.5).
3) Kentucky (13-0 SU, 5-6 ATS): The Wildcats have made a complete turnaround under coach John Calipari. But there’s still some work to be done in Lexington. Kentucky was taken to overtime by Stanford (+10) and came within a bucket of losing to Miami, Ohio as a 17.5-point favorite. Kentucky is 2-5 against the spread at home this year, so beware of this chalk monster.
4) Purdue (11-0 SU, 5-5-1 ATS): Purdue was ranked seventh in most preseason polls and shows no sign of slowing down, although it remains to be seen how the Boilermakers will do against the Big Ten. Non-conference victories over Tennessee (+1) and Alabama (+6) should be good indicators.
5) Syracuse (12-0 SU, 6-2 ATS): The former Orangemen are one of the feel-good stories of the first semester, at least for handicappers. Iowa State transfer Wes Johnson (16.8 PPG) has been great this year and freshman Brandon Triche (11.5 PPG) have stepped in for last year’s departed players and taken Syracuse to the next level. Keep squeezing the Orange until it runs dry.
6) West Virginia (9-0 SU, 3-5 ATS): The Mountaineers are playing at a very high level, but the betting lines have been just beyond their reach; for example, Wednesday’s 76-66 victory over Ole Miss came up as a loser against the 11 1/2-point spread. WVU has a very balanced team on both sides of the ball and a very good chance of making money in 2010 once the lines come down.
7) Duke Blue (9-1 SU, 6-3 ATS): It’s always good to get Duke early; we’ve seen the Blue Devils fall apart down the stretch for almost the entire decade, especially in the tournament. This year could be different with North Carolina taking a step back and Duke moving up hard. The Devils have covered some fat spreads against NC-Greensboro and Gardner-Webb, and they beat a ripped a pretty solid Gonzaga club by 35 points, all good signs for the future.
8) Villanova (11-1 SU, 8-3 ATS): Villanova got taken down a peg two weeks ago with a loss at Temple, and the ‘Cats ranked No. 29 with the No. 90 defense in Division I rankings. There are going to be some tough days ahead in the Big East. However, the mainstream media loves Villanova. It’s a good formula for a fade team.
9) Michigan State (9-3 SU, 3-8 ATS): Michigan State was tabbed the No. 2 team in the preseason and has already been thrown around in losses to Florida, North Carolina and Texas. The good news for the Spartans is that the Big Ten is relatively weak, and we saw MSU go 17-9-1 ATS during the second half of the 2008-09 season.
10) North Carolina (9-3 SU, 5-5 ATS): The Tar Heels after losing so many quality players from last year's championship team, especially Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough and Danny Green. But consistency is going to be a huge issue for this young team, which will inevitably give handicappers some fits.