SEC Snapshot
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
The SEC has generally been considered the weakest of the major basketball conferences of late, but over the past 11 years, the conference has produced eight Final Four teams and three national championship teams. Only the Big East can top that with nine Final Four teams in that run, but that conference has gone through more significant changes in that span. Right now, it looks like only four teams are bound for the NCAA Tournament from the SEC, but they are four teams with potential to win multiple games in March. Here is a look at the teams with a shot to make the Big Dance though it looks like only three teams are assured spots.
Favorite – Kentucky (9-2 S/U, 4-7 ATS): With three freshmen that are projected first round NBA draft picks, Kentucky as usual is one of the most talented teams in the nation. This year’s team is still the favorite for the SEC title, but it isn’t clear if this young group could come together for a great NCAA Tournament run or whether another first weekend exit is more likely. Despite being a high caliber team in all of the John Calipari era, Kentucky only has three outright SEC titles in the past 11 years plus last season’s shared title with Texas A&M. Kentucky’s toughest remaining games including a rematch with Florida will be at home to keep the Wildcats in the driver’s seat. While Kentucky rates as the top offensive team in the SEC, the defensive numbers are closer to the middle of the pack and superior defensive teams South Carolina and Florida will be threats to unseat the Wildcats who may be hitting a freshmen wall with a 1-8 overall ATS run since early January.
Contender – Florida (9-2 S/U, 7-4 ATS): Since a surprising home loss to Vanderbilt, Florida has been on a tear with five straight double-digit wins including a 22-point home win over Kentucky to announce that the Gators are back as a national force. Florida lost three out of five games at one point early in the year, but those opponents have all wound up being top-20 caliber squads and if Florida can beat Kentucky again, they will likely take the SEC title. They also still have to play South Carolina again, but this time it will be in Gainesville and the rest of the remaining schedule looks favorable. In his second season with Florida, Michael White’s team is rated second in the SEC in offensive and defensive efficiency and after some inconsistent shooting early in the season, Florida has shot much stronger from 3-point range in recent weeks. Florida has an impressive resume through one of the nation’s toughest schedules and after missing the NCAA Tournament last season, the Gators are poised to be a serious March threat this season.
Overachiever – South Carolina (9-2 S/U, 6-4-1 ATS): The Gamecocks are the #1 defensive efficiency squad in the nation and South Carolina is still in the mix for a SEC championship even following the epic four-overtime loss at home against Alabama. Three non-conference losses against quality teams all came with senior Sindarius Thornwell suspended and while the Gamecocks were blasted at Kentucky with a 16-point defeat, they won’t have to face them again. South Carolina does have a difficult game at Florida remaining, but they should be favored to win every other remaining game in a breakthrough season for Frank Martin in his fifth year in Columbia. In the three-team conference race, South Carolina likely ends up a step behind Kentucky and Florida with the team featuring the worst effective field goal rate in the entire 14-team SEC.
Bubble Team – Tennessee (6-5 S/U, 6-5 ATS): The Volunteers have 10 losses but after a 1-3 start in SEC play, Tennessee is up to 6-5 with a strong run of play the past three weeks that includes a win over Kentucky and an impressive non-conference win over Kansas State. The Volunteers played a tough non-conference schedule though they didn’t win any of the big early season games other than beating Georgia Tech. They’ll still end the season having faced one of the nation’s toughest slates which should help the cause with the selection committee. While the young Volunteers have some current momentum bouncing back from an upset loss with a comeback win hosting Mississippi this week, the remaining schedule is daunting with road games vs. Kentucky and South Carolina. Tennessee has three home losses this season and games with Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Alabama won’t be assured wins for a team that has been inconsistent. Ultimately, Tennessee probably needs to reach a double-digit win mark in SEC play to stay inside the NCAA Tournament picture as there isn’t much margin of error unless the Volunteers score another major upset vs. one of the league’s top three teams.
Sleeper – Alabama (7-4 S/U, 5-6 ATS): Sleeper candidacy for Alabama in the SEC race gained some credibility with this week’s four-overtime win at South Carolina. That was a fourth road win for the Crimson Tide in league play this season and while the ceiling doesn’t look as high for this squad, winning out isn’t impossible with the remaining schedule. The toughest remaining game is this weekend hosting Kentucky, but with the Wildcats clearly out of sync of late that upset looks a bit more plausible than it did a few weeks ago. The remaining road games are at Missouri and Texas A&M before a finale at Tennessee that could be a critical game on both sides. Alabama has a lot of work to do to even reach NCAA Tournament consideration as they aren’t even on the bubble at this point and a win this weekend vs. Kentucky is a required piece of the puzzle. Alabama played close with a number of quality teams in the non-conference campaign and with a SEC schedule that features the top three teams just once each a run to a 14-4 finish is unlikely, but not impossible for a team that has quality defensive numbers and is the best rebounding team in the conference.
Enigma – Arkansas (6-5 S/U, 5-6 ATS): Arkansas started the season 11-1 with a couple of decent wins on the resume, but the Razorbacks have been a puzzling team in league play. Arkansas has three road wins including winning at Tennessee, but they have also lost badly in several games while handing Missouri its only SEC win so far. That bad loss likely ended the NCAA Tournament candidacy for Arkansas, but March Madness hopes are still on life support with remaining opportunities for quality wins though the upcoming games vs. South Carolina and Florida are both on the road. Getting to 10-8 in SEC play likely won’t be enough for Arkansas, but they could make a reasonable bubble case at 12-6 or 11-7 especially if they score one of those big road upsets. Mike Anderson’s squad is very capable offensively and is the best 3-point shooting team in the SEC, but surprisingly hasn’t created turnovers with its pressure defense as usual. Arkansas needs to win almost all of the remaining coin-flip games to stay in the conversation, but this squad has a better postseason chance than most probably would expect given some of the recent outings.
Underachiever – Mississippi (5-6 S/U, 6-4-1 ATS): Wednesday’s loss at Tennessee was emblematic of how much of the season has gone for Ole Miss as the Rebels led the entire second half until inside of three-minutes only to get outscored 15-2 to finish the game, losing and not even holding on for the underdog cover. Ole Miss similarly failed to close out wins vs. Texas A&M and in a big non-conference opportunity vs. Baylor in late January as at 5-6 NCAA Tournament, hopes for the Rebels no longer exist despite a favorable remaining schedule. Four of the final seven SEC games are at home, including the finale with South Carolina as the Rebels drew a very tough path this season with seven games vs. the league’s likely top four teams. Five home losses on the season already is a very disappointing result for Andy Kennedy’s 11th season, but this team could have some upset potential down the stretch or in the SEC Tournament with great free throw shooting and offensive rebounding numbers and one of the better interior defenses in the conference as this looks like a stronger team than the results have shown.
Long Shot – Georgia (4-7 S/U, 7-4 ATS): With a 4-2 SEC start, Georgia looked like a candidate to make a run to the top tier of the SEC as the losses came by six and by four in overtime vs. South Carolina and Florida. The Gators have lost five SEC games in a row since, only mixing in a narrow non-conference win over Texas. The past three losses have come against Kentucky, South Carolina, and Florida in succession including an overtime loss at Kentucky and a two-point loss at South Carolina as the Bulldogs haven’t missed by much in what could have been a stronger season. They still have to play Kentucky again at home next week, facing the three contenders twice each for possibly the toughest SEC slate any team has drawn. Non-conference losses to Clemson, Kansas, and Marquette give Georgia a great strength of schedule rating and should the Bulldogs rally to finish 10-8 in SEC play and perhaps win a few SEC tournament games the case for NCAA Tournament inclusion would be possible. Beating Kentucky in the toughest remaining home game will be required, but with home games vs. Mississippi State, LSU, and Auburn remaining, there is a good chance Georgia closes February with much better results than the month has started with.
Cash Collector – Vanderbilt (5-6 S/U, 7-4 ATS): The Commodores have won four of the past six games including three road wins with a big upset at Florida while also impressively beating Iowa State in non-conference action. Six non-conference losses and five home losses on the season dooms any hopes for Bryce Drew to get this team into the NCAA Tournament, but Vanderbilt could continue its run as one of the best ATS teams in the conference. They still get to play all four of the top teams in the SEC which should draw some favorable underdog pricing and Vanderbilt rates third in the SEC in offensive efficiency. The Commodores can have rebounding issues, but they are one of the best outside shooting teams in the conference while also leading the SEC in free throw percentage. Vanderbilt won without Matthew Fisher-Davis on Tuesday at Arkansas and with mostly veteran contributors this is a squad that should continue to play at a high level even if a difficult remaining schedule might mean more close losses for a team that has 10 losses by 12 or fewer points this season.
Cash Burner – Texas A&M (5-6 S/U, 3-8 ATS): In the non-conference season, Texas A&M looked like a tough-luck loser with narrow defeats against USC, UCLA, and Arizona, but the Aggies started SEC play 1-5. Texas A&M has rallied to reach 5-6 in league play, but three of the five wins are vs. LSU and Missouri, the clear bottom two teams in the conference as the Aggies have played the SEC’s weakest schedule so far. Games with Florida and Kentucky remain with four of the final seven on the road and it seems unlikely that the losing ATS fortune will change for this squad given that the three of five SEC wins have come by four or fewer points. The Aggies have the worst turnover rate in the SEC while getting to the free throw line on offense at the third lowest rate in the conference while on defense allowing foes to shoot 38 percent from 3-point range. Texas A&M doesn’t have a top 50 win on the season while possessing only three top 100 wins all season by a combined total of eight points and six of the seven remaining games are vs. top 100 squads.