SEC Tourney Preview

SEC Tourney Preview
By Brian Edwards

The SEC Tournament returns to Nashville this year and the home of the NHL’s Nashville Predators, Bridgestone Arena. Kentucky is the minus-125 ‘chalk’ (risk $125 to win $100) to cut the nets down Sunday in Music City. Those odds, and the following ones, are provided by Sportsbook.com.

Vanderbilt has the second-shortest odds with gamblers getting a chance to cash a plus-350 ticket (risk $100 to win $350) on the Commodores. Like Vandy, Tennessee is playing in its home state with plus-450 for its future number.

Going into the league tournament, UK, UT and Vandy are considered the only locks to hear their names called this Sunday night when the NCAA Tournament pairings are announced. However, we should note that the last two SEC Tournaments were won by schools that would’ve otherwise been nowhere near making the field.

In 2008, Georgia was the sixth seed in the East when it arrived at the Georgia Dome to face Ole Miss late Thursday night. The Dawgs would eventually win by a 97-95 count in overtime. The next night, a tornado rolled through downtown Atlanta and caused significant damage to the area.

Therefore, the rest of the tourney was moved to Ga. Tech’s arena, Alexander Memorial Coliseum, where only family members of the coaches and players along with media were allowed into the arena. On Saturday morning, UGA beat Kentucky 60-56 in overtime.

Later that day, the Dawgs beat Mississippi St. Finally on Sunday, Dennis Felton’s team knocked off Arkansas to earn the SEC’s automatic bid. Georgia AD Damon Evans had been prepared to fire Felton before the team’s improbable run that was fueled by tournament MVP Sundiata Gaines.

Then last season, Mississippi St. was the team to catch fire in Tampa at the St. Pete Times Forum, as the event took place in the Sunshine State for the first time since 1990. The Bulldogs beat Tennessee 64-61 in the finals as 5 ½-point underdogs.

The Bulldogs, who are the No. 1 seed from the SEC West this year, will face the Florida-Auburn winner in Friday’s quarterfinals matchup at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. Rick Stansbury’s team, by virtue of a loss at Auburn and a home setback against Tennessee to close the regular season, probably have to win the league’s automatic bid.

In fact, Ole Miss, which is the No. 2 seed in the West, has better at-large hopes than its in-state rivals, who actually beat the Rebels twice during the regular season. If Andy Kennedy’s team can beat the LSU-Tennessee winner, assuming that would be the Vols, it becomes a player in the conversation depending on how other bubble schools fare this week.

The Gators, who have been to the NIT in consecutive years after winning back-to-back national championships, are probably going to be in decent shape with a win over Auburn. Then again, if other bubble teams get busy this weekend, UF might also need to beat Mississippi St. Billy Donovan’s team prevailed over the Bulldogs when these schools collided in Gainesville last month.

Let’s take a look at all four of Thursday’s first-round games…

**South Carolina vs. Alabama**

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Alabama (16-14 straight up, 12-13-2 against the spread) as a one-point favorite with a total of 138.

Anthony Grant’s team garnered the No. 4 seed from the West division by beating Auburn 73-61 in Saturday’s regular-season finale. The Crimson Tide hooked up its backers as five-point home favorites. Freshman forward Tony Mitchell was the catalyst with 16 points and seven rebounds. MikHail Torrance finished with 13 points, 12 boards and six assists.

South Carolina (15-15 SU, 10-17 ATS) took a six-game losing streak both SU and ATS into its regular-season finale Saturday at Vanderbilt. The Gamecocks brought that slide to an end behind the hot second-half shooting of Devan Downey, who sparked USC to a 77-73 win over the Commodores as a 10-point road underdog. Downey had 26 points, while junior forward Sam Muldrow tallied 20 points and nine rebounds.

When these schools met in Columbia last Wednesday, ‘Bama captured a 79-70 win as a four-point road underdog. Torrance led the Tide with 17 points, eight assists and six rebounds, while Justin Knox chipped in with 17 points and seven boards. Downey went for 23 points, but Muldrow was limited to seven on 1-of-8 shooting from the field.

JaMychal Green, ‘Bama’s sophomore star who averages 14.3 points and 7.0 rebounds per contest, was suspended for the win at S-Carolina for an unspecified violation of team rules. He came off the bench against Auburn but was limited to only one point, three rebounds and three turnovers in just 14 minutes of play.

The ‘under’ has been a major money maker for both of these teams this year, going 17-9 overall for the ‘Cocks and 16-9 overall for the Tide.

‘Bama and USC both have 60/1 odds to win the SEC Tourney at Sportsbook.com.

Tip-off is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network. The winner will take on Kentucky at 1:00 p.m. on Friday.

**LSU vs. Tennessee**

LVSC opened Tennessee (23-7 SU, 12-14-1 ATS) as a 12 ½-point favorite with a total of 135.

LSU (11-19 SU, 9-17 ATS) has endured a nightmare campaign after losing Marcus Thornton, Garrett Temple and Chris Johnson following last season’s trip to the NCAA Tournament’s second round before losing to eventual national champ, North Carolina. With that said, the Tigers have won two of their last four games and are 4-2 ATS in their last six outings.

Trent Johnson’s squad won its regular-season finale 50-48 Saturday as a 1 ½-point home favorite. On his Senior Day, Tasmin Mitchell had a team-high 20 points to lead his team to its second SEC victory. Bo Spencer added 10 points, including a key go-ahead trey at crunch time.

Bruce Pearl’s squad has won five of its last six games, including a dominating performance this past Saturday at The Hump in Starkville. The Volunteers slammed Mississippi St. 75-59 as 3 ½-point road underdogs. They hooked up money-line backers with a plus-150 payout (risk $100 to win $150). J.P. Prince scored a game-high 16 points, while Brian Williams had 10 points and 13 boards.

Tennessee owns a 5-6 spread record in 11 games as a double-digit favorite. Meanwhile, LSU is 2-5 versus the number in seven double-digit underdog spots.

When these teams met in Baton Rouge at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center back on Feb. 4, UT survived a game effort from the Bayou Bengals to win a 59-54 decision. However, LSU took the cash as a 6 ½-point home underdog. Wayne Chism was the only Vol in double figures with 20 points. Spencer had a game-high 25 points in defeat, while Mitchell went for 13 points and 17 boards.

The ‘under’ has cashed in five consecutive LSU games and is 18-7 overall for the Tigers.

Tennessee has seen the ‘under’ go 16-7 overall.

This game will come off the board 30 minutes after the conclusion of USC-Alabama. The SEC Network will have the telecast around 3:30ish p.m. ET. The winner gets Ole Miss at the same time on Friday.

**Florida vs. Auburn**

LVSC opened Florida (20-11 SU, 14-12 ATS) as a six-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 142.

UF comes to Music City on a three-game losing streak but unlike the last two years, the Gators are playing well right now. Prior to the three-game slide, Florida had won nine of its previous 12 games. Two Saturdays ago, UF lost a 78-76 heartbreaker to Georgia in Stegeman Coliseum, the same arena where the Dawgs also knocked off Saint Louis, Ga. Tech, Vandy and Tennessee. Then last Tuesday, UF led Vandy for nearly the entire second half before going the last nine-plus minutes without a bucket from the field. Nevertheless, Kenny Boynton had a great look at a go-ahead trifecta in the waning seconds, only to misfire in a 64-60 loss.

In Sunday’s regular-season finale at Rupp Arena, Kentucky ran out to an 18-point lead in the first half. But the Gators wouldn’t go away. In fact, they trimmed the deficit all the way to two at 62-60 in the final five minutes. UK withstood the charge, however, and pulled away for a 74-66 triumph. UF covered the spread as an 11 ½-point underdog.

Auburn (15-16 SU, 12-11-2 ATS) is playing out the final chapter of Jeff Lebo’s unspectacular tenure here. Like Felton at Georgia in recent seasons, Lebo inherited NCAA sanctions from the Cliff Ellis Era. And according to multiple VI sources, Lebo was also like Felton in another way. He refused to cut corners or ever bend, much less break, any rules. The result, barring a run similar to Felton’s Dawgs circa ’08, will result in Lebo’s pink slip in the next week.

When these teams met at the O-Dome on Feb. 18, UF captured a 78-70 victory as a nine-point home favorite. Chandler Parsons led the winners with 17 points, six rebounds and four assists. Erving Walker put the game on ice with a plethora of free throws in the final minute. The Brooklyn native finished with 14 points – all from the charity stripe – and six assists. DeWayne Reed had a game-high 22 points and six assists before fouling out in the losing effort.

Auburn has been a lucrative squad to support in recent weeks, compiling a 9-3-2 spread ledger in its last 14 games. The Tigers are 7-5-1 ATS in 13 games as underdogs.

UF owns a 4-6 ATS mark in 10 games as a single-digit ‘chalk.’

UF has 12/1 odds to win its fourth SEC Tournament title in school history. All three previous titles came in succession from 2005-2007. Auburn’s future number for this tourney is 200/1.

The ‘over’ is 15-7 overall for Auburn. On the flip side, the ‘under’ has gone 13-9 overall for the Gators.

The SEC Network will provide television coverage at 7:30 p.m. ET.

**Georgia vs. Arkansas**

LVSC opened this game as a pick ‘em with a total of 144.

Georgia (13-16 SU, 16-12 ATS) was on a profit-producing 15-4 ATS run before dropping back-to-back games both SU and ATS to close the regular season. The Dawgs lost their home finale to Kentucky by a 74-58 score as eight-point underdogs last Wednesday. Then they went to Baton Rouge and lost a nail-biter, 50-48.

Arkansas (14-17 SU, 12-12 ATS) has lost five in a row, going 1-4 ATS in the process. The Razorbacks raced out to a double-digit lead in the first half Saturday vs. Ole Miss and led the Rebels by 10 at halftime. But the home team couldn’t finish off Chris Warren and Co. Warren scored a game-high 31 points and hit a crucial 3-pointer at crunch time, as Ole Miss stayed alive in its quest for an at-large invite to the Big Dance with a 68-66 win. The Rebs also covered the number as 1 ½-point road ‘chalk.’

I backed UGA when it hosted Arkansas as a 4 ½-point home ‘chalk’ on Feb. 3. I thought I had a winner in my pocket when the Dawgs went to intermission with a commanding 37-22 advantage. However, Hogs sophomore guard Courtney Fortson led his team back to win a 72-68 decision. Fortson finished with 27 points, while Michael Washington added 15 points and eight rebounds. For UGA, Trey Thompkins had 21 points and seven boards.

If there’s a longshot to look at in this event, it says here that Georgia should be that team at 100/1 odds. As we mentioned, the Dawgs made an unlikely run at a similarly generous price just two seasons ago with Albert Jackson and Jeremy Price playing pivotal roles. Most importantly, the draw looks attractive for UGA, which would get Vandy in a potential second-round game. The Dawgs stroked the ‘Dores 72-58 in Athens before losing in overtime at Vandy in a game they should’ve won in regulation. The likely semifinal foe – MSU or UF – wouldn’t intimidate the Dawgs, who beat UF recently as mentioned and lost by just three to the Bulldogs in Starkville.

Fortson missed the first 14 games of the year due to suspension. In the 17 games he’s played, Fortson has averaged 18.1 points, 6.0 assists and 5.3 rebounds per game despite usually being the smallest player on the court.

This is Thursday’s late-night game that most likely won’t tip until around 10:00 p.m. ET.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

The SEC Tournament will return to the Georgia Dome in Atlanta in 2011. In 2012, the event will be moved to the New Orleans Arena in the Crescent City.

Auburn has certainly enjoyed pockets of hoops success during Sonny Smith’s tenure and at times on Ellis’s watch, but it isn’t the most attractive job in the SEC by any means. That will change to some degree with this coaching search since the Tigers are moving into a brand new arena next season.

Ole Miss has 10/1 odds to win this tourney, while Mississippi St. has a 12/1 number.

I still say Kentucky isn’t going to the Final Four even though it might have the nation’s best talent. The Fab Five at Michigan was even younger than these ‘Cats in the early 1990s, but the Wolverines were much mature than this outfit. Jalen Rose was wise beyond his years while Juwan Howard and Chris Webber were much steadier than the mercurial DeMarcus Cousins. John Wall, like Rose, is tremendous in the clutch but he allows himself to get frustrated when he’s not getting his shots or points. I just don’t see it happening for John Calipari’s squad.

All-SEC, First-Team:
John Wall (Kentucky)
Patrick Patterson (Kentucky)
Devan Downey (South Carolina)
Jarvis Varnado (Mississippi St.)
Chris Warren (Ole Miss)

Second-Team All-SEC:
Tasmin Mitchell (LSU)
Trey Thompkins (Georgia)
DeMarcus Cousins (Kentucky)
Jermaine Beal (Vandy)
Jeffery Taylor (Vandy)

Third-Team All-SEC:
Wayne Chism (Tennessee)
Chandler Parsons (Florida)
Travis Leslie (Georgia)
J.P. Prince (Tennessee)
Erving Walker (Florida)

Fourth-Team All-SEC:
Dee Bost (Mississippi St.)
Terrico White (Ole Miss)
A.J. Ogilvy (Vandy)
Courtney Fortson (Arkansas)
Kenny Boynton (Florida)

SEC All-Freshman Team:
John Wall (UK)
DeMarcus Cousins (UK)
Kenny Boynton (UF)
Marshawn Powell (ARK)
John Jenkins (VANDY)

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