Blade/Michael/Others,
I have a unque situation with my NCAA bracket and was hoping to get some advice from the forum. **The following situation assumes that WVU beats Duke and advances to the Championship game. Otherwise please ignore.**
By per donkeyness, I have a chance to tie for 1st/2nd in a 250 person bracket pool if WVU wins the Nat Champ. The other bracket owner is willing to chop the total 1st and 2nd place prize money regardless of the final tiebreaker score. (approx $3500).
So...if WVU advances to the championship game I essentially have a $1750 wager on the WVU moneyline. My question to the forum is how much should I hedge on the other team?
Best case scenario would be WVU wins, but does not cover. I would win both the pool and the "hedge" wager.
Also in the mix: The other bracket owner is considering opening a joint account with my local agent in order to increase our hedge amount and hopefully our final payout.
GO MOUNTAINEERS!!!
ps: My final score total = 142, his final score total = 139.
I'm certainly no sharp, but it seems to me the clear answer is 1/2 ($875). Hell, that's not even gambling; it's a guaranteed $875.
Years ago when I was using an offshore internet book, I "earned" (by losing a few dimes, I imagine) a $10 free play on some Super Bowl coin toss. So, I took the free play on heads (or whatever) and bet $10 on tails. Ch-ching. Guaranteed sawbuck (minus the juice potentially ;).)
I note your situation seems pretty good, as W. Va. would probably be a decent size favorite against Butler or Michigan State (the actual potential lines are probably up somewhere), giving them a good chance to win but not cover, as opposed to being a 1-2 point favorite.
I happen to like WV +2.5 and SU against Duke and the +200 to win it all (but I'm a perfect 0-2 on the picks I've shared on this board.) But don't go blaming me for jinxing you.
Good luck, buddy.
Are you gonna hedge at all against Duke or let it ride?
I love donkeyness, I think I am gonna start using that.
To your question...there is really no correct. It all comes down to how much of a gambler you are.
I will say you are definitely ahead of the game by noticing you have the opportunity to hedge this situation.
Beyond that it all comes down to how much you want to win or how much you are willing to potentially lose.
If you want a little profit guaranteed this is what I would do.
Open a account at SPORTSBETTING.com and take advantage of the 110% bonus they have right now.
If you deposit 500.00 that will give you 1,050. to work with, I then would bet 500 flat on Duke ML which would net you about 330 or so. If WV wins that game that will leave you 550 to take the dog plus the points since WV will be favored I think over either Mich St/Butler. This way your guaranteed some type of profit and if Duke does win you have a nice little bankroll for Baseball for only a 500 deposit.
If the other guy was smart he would do the same thing. 😉
I should of thought of that.
What Blade said would be real smart IMO.
Doesn't get much smarter then a 100% bonus on free money. Nice call
I should of thought of that.
What Blade said would be real smart IMO.
Doesn't get much smarter then a 100% bonus on free money. Nice call
Actually 110% bonus ;D It's a no vig hedge bet if WV beats Duke. 😉
Thanks guys. I will always support your sponsors when I have a chance. I have talked the other guy into it and we are probably going to deposit together in a "joint" account on SPORTSBETTING.com . I never considered hedging the Duke game as well. That is great advice. (Do you have a referrel number I can use so you can get a bonus when I deposit?)
Questions: 1. Is the 110% bonus in "bonus dollars" or real cash? Do you have to "earn" the bonus cash or is it available for withdraw right away? 2. My local agent has offered me $500 cash to buy my bracket out right (before the Duke game!!). I could take that, make the SPORTSBETTING.com deposit, move on to baseball and enjoy the tournament without chewing off all my finger nails. Is this a good offer?
ps: Just to let you know. My wife thinks I should just let it ride and try to win the pool hands down (only cost me $40). You can see who has the real balls in this marriage, but a $500 to $875 return on 40 bucks is good enough for me.
Just use this link to signup and the boss would appreciate it SPORTSBETTING.com
Yes that is a real cash bonus.
I was just checking the rules on it and noticed that it is limited to 300.00 😛 with a 10x rollover so what you would have to do is both open accounts and do 250.00 each to get the 500.00.
If you deposited 300.00 you would have to bet 3,300 before you could withdraw any money.
Your locals offer isn't bad at all if you don't feel like sweating and you could make a deposit and still have a few hundred in your pocket.
You can click on any of the banners or links on the site that point to SPORTSBETTING.
Regardless if you decide to use someone who advertises on the site or not - SPORTSBETTING or otherwise, you should definitely look into depositing somewhere that will give you a bonus on that money because that will definitely make your hedge more profitable.
To give the money to a local bookie that won't give you shit but bad lines is not something I would suggest when there are bonuses available.
Whatever you decide, congrats on your win, it's been a tough tourney to be in the position you are. I read that ESPN had almost 5 million brackets filled out and only 200 people got the Final Four right.