Spurs-Suns Outlook
By Kevin Rogers
No. 3 Phoenix Suns vs. No. 7 San Antonio Spurs
Series Price: Phoenix -145, San Antonio +125
Series Format: Phoenix, 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: These two veteran squads get together for the fourth time in postseason play since 2005, as the Spurs have eliminated the Suns in the last three meetings in the playoffs. Each team needed six games to advance on to this round, but Phoenix and San Antonio went down different roads to get to this point.
The Suns were able to grab a pair of road victories at the Rose Garden, including a Game 6 triumph over the Blazers to oust Portland, 4-2. The key to Phoenix's success in this series was hitting its shots from downtown, as Alvin Gentry's squad drilled at least 10 treys in four games. The scoring load was shared by several different Suns, led by Jason Richardson's 23.5 ppg. J-Rich put up a career playoff-high of 42 points in the Game 3 blowout, as the Suns hit a series-best 13 three-pointers.
The Spurs avenged last season's first round loss to the Mavs by eliminating their cross-state rivals, 4-2. San Antonio won all three games at home, including the series-clinching 97-87 triumph in Game 6. The Spurs held the struggling Dallas offense to just eight points in the opening quarter, while Manu Ginobili scored 20+ points for the third time in the series with a team-high 26 points. The point guard duo of Tony Parker (15.8 ppg) and George Hill (14.3 ppg) was the right amount support for the Spurs, as opposed to the one-man wrecking crew of the Mavs in Dirk Nowitzki (26.7 ppg).
What Phoenix did extremely well against Portland is something San Antonio needs to contain in this series. The Suns shot a league-best 41% from long distance in the regular season, while nailing 60 of 153 three-point tries against the Blazers (39.2%). On the flip side, the Spurs limited the Mavs to just 32.7% shooting from downtown (38 of 116), while Dallas' best game from three-point range was the 8 of 20 effort in Game 3.
The home team won all three games this season, with two of the meetings coming in the Valley. The Suns were in control from start to finish in a 116-104 victory as two-point favorites on December 15. Phoenix lit up San Antonio from long distance by knocking down 11 of 18 treys, including four from Goran Dragic. The Suns were paced by Steve Nash (23 points) and Amare Stoudemire (28 points), while Tim Duncan led all scorers with 34 points.
The Spurs avenged that loss with a 113-110 victory on February 28 at the AT&T Center, as both teams shot over 50% from the floor. San Antonio failed to cover as four-point 'chalk,' but received strong showings from Antonio McDyess (12 points) and DeJuan Blair (14 points). Stoudemire tallied his second-best scoring game of the season with 41 points in the defeat.
Alvin Gentry's team picked up the series victory by downing the Spurs on April 7 at home, 112-101 as six-point favorites. Stoudemire dominated once again with 29 points, while Nash contributed 18 points and 12 assists. Phoenix returned home from a five-game road trip that ended with a loss at Milwaukee, snapping a ten-game winning streak. The Suns caught the Spurs on a back-to-back as San Antonio was coming off a victory at Sacramento.
Gambling Notes: The 'over' hit in all three regular season meetings, as the Spurs are coming off five straight 'unders' in the Mavs series. The Suns compiled a 27-15-1 ATS mark as a home favorite, while going 34-9 SU. Phoenix has been streaking in the Valley, putting together a 14-3-1 ATS mark the last 18 at home.
San Antonio has been less than stellar as a road underdog, owning a 10-13 SU/ATS ledger. However, the Spurs have won and covered eight of the last 14 when receiving points on the highway. Heading into the series opener on Monday, the Spurs are 6-4 SU/ATS as a road 'dog off a home win, while finishing 'under' the total seven of ten times.
Series Outlook: The Suns haven't been able to figure out the Spurs in the postseason, but Phoenix's defense stepped up against Portland by allowing 96 points or less in each of the last five games. San Antonio has clicked with Parker coming off the bench, but the inability to slow down Stoudemire in this series may be the Spurs' demise. I'll take the Suns to advance to the conference finals in seven games.
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