Robert Ferringo
1-Unit Play. Take North Carolina (-7) over Oklahoma
I have the feeling that I’m going to be kicking myself for again going against my pick to win the NCAA Tournament (Oklahoma). But the bottom line is that I don’t think that they can play any better than they did against Syracuse and I don’t know if that’s going to be enough against North Carolina. For the Tar Heels, this run has been three years in the making. In 2007 they choked away a double-digit lead to Georgetown before losing in OT in the Elite Eight. In 2008 they made it to the Final Four, but they lost a tough one to eventual champion Kansas. So this year I see the natural progression filling itself out and I see the Tar Heels cutting down the nets. The bottom line, to me, is that the winner of this game is winning the title. This was by far the most difficult bracket and I think that these are the two best teams left (with Connecticut right behind them). This is a lot of points to lay out. But, again, Oklahoma has simply not been battle-tested like this UNC team. Over the last two seasons OU has played just 10 games against teams rated in the Top 15. They are 2-8 against them, including just 1-2 this year. North Carolina is 10-2 against Top 15 teams over the same span. This is rated so ridiculously low because I love both of the teams. But we’ll back experience, play for a letdown, and hope that UNC hits the jets like they’ve been known to do.
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take Louisville (-2) over Michigan State AND Take North Carolina (-2) over Oklahoma
Smooth44
Knockout Punch Of The Day - Sacramento +6
Louisville -6 -120
Oklahoma +7
Master Sports
5* Mich St
4* Lakers
3* Toronto
ROOT
Chairman- Oklahoma
Millionaire- Michigan St
MoneyMaker- New Orleans Hornets
SCOTT RICKENBACH
1* (regular play) Michigan State Spartans (+) vs Louisville
The Cardinals, as you would expect, are getting a lot of hype right now because of how they thrashed Arizona on Friday. Additionally, the Spartans are not getting nearly the same respect because they have “only” squeaked out wins against Kansas and Southern Cal in their last two games plus they failed to cover against Robert Morris in their Big Dance opener. What does this mean for our purposes? A lot of line value is being given to a Spartans team that has gone 13-2 in it’s last 15 opportunities on the second day of an NCAA Tourney weekend. Coach Tom Izzo has built this team well for success in these tough, back to back spot. Their half-court offense, a deep rotation, and a strong rebounding unit all combine to make the Spartans dangerous in a spot like this. Playing in the Big Ten, Michigan State certainly knows plenty about physical play and their style is conducive to being able to slow down Louisville. The Cardinals have been harassed into some poor games offensively where their shots don’t fall. We believe Tom Izzo’s crew is capable of that type of defensive effort here.
One of the keys for the Spartans is how well they rebound and the fact that this should eliminate a lot of second chance opportunities for Louisville. Also, Michigan State does an amazing job on the offensive glass! Believe it or not, the Spartans rebound over 40% of their own shots and their rebounding margin (nearly a +10) is the best in the nation. The Cardinals are a very strong team and they do have depth but will they start to wear themselves out here. Their recent eliminations from the tournament have often come on the second day of a tourney weekend. Here, with Izzo and his Spartans capable of forcing a half-court game, we could see the Cardinals offense bogging down. Their explosion against Arizona was a game that just got blown wide open and ‘ran wild’ all the way. Now, forced to play in half-court sets – where Louisville struggles – the Spartans should successfully get the tempo they want here. The Cardinals have enjoyed a favorable draw so far with Morehead State, Siena, and 12th-seeded Arizona team. All of the sudden, the Cardinals now face a battle-tested Spartans team that has survived back to back tight games against top competition (USC and Kansas). This will make a big difference in how this one plays out as the Spartans keep this tight all the way and the Cardinals struggle to respond as they are suddenly faced with a tight game. This means big value with the big points here. Play Michigan State plus the points as a regular selection.
Lee Sterling
San Antonio at New Orleans
Play: New Orleans +1.5
This is Lee Sterling and I've been in the top three for winning percentage for a long time now. If you want winning picks then I'm your guy. In NBA today I'm clearly behind New Orleans because they are getting healthier and they need this game in the worst way for their confidence. Most teams get beaten by San Antonio because they have no PG to guard Parker but New Orleans does and can get a lot of easy baskets in transition versus a tired and slow San Antonio squad. New Orleans big on Sunday night.
Matt Fargo
Chicago at Toronto
Play: Toronto -2
Chicago looks to be coming together at the right time as it has won five straight games but now it heads out on the road once again where things have not been very good. The Bulls are just 12-26 away from home this season and since February 20th, the home team is 17-3 in Chicago games. The Bulls are now tied with Detroit for 7th place in the Eastern Conference so the recent run have been a good one but this is definitely the time to fade. They have been very solid in games played with no rest as they are 13-8 both straight up and against the number in the second game of a back-to-back set. However, that includes a 9-2 record when going from a road game to a home game and they are only 1-4 when that first game was at home. That again brings in the home/road dichotomy that Chicago has been facing all season long. Toronto’s playoff hopes were dashed a long time ago but this team certainly has not tossed in the towel. The Raptors have won three straight games, the first time they have accomplished that since January and the offense has put together solid efforts in all of those, averaging 109 ppg. Expectations were high for Toronto this season and that is the main cause for its dismal record against the number as it is a putrid 27-42-3 ATS on the season. However, most of that lack of success came against the better teams as the Raptors are 13-26-3 ATS as underdogs but a more respectable 14-14 ATS as favorites. Toronto is actually 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite which shows that the betting market was slow to adjust when they were losing as favorites earlier in the year and they are once again slow to adjust this time around. The road team has won the first two meetings this season but that changes here as the Raptors remain hot and snap the Bulls string at five. 3* Toronto Raptors
Doc's
3 Unit Play. Take Louisville over Michigan State
5 Unit Play. Take North Carolina -7 over Oklahoma
Fairway Jay
Michigan St
Cal Sports
4* Mich St / Louisville Over 137.5
Mike Lineback
Toronto Raptors
JB Sports
Toronto Raptors
Opposite Action Plays
Atlanta Hawks
Lenny Del Genio
North Carolina
Tony George
Louisville