Craig Davis
40 Dime ---- OKLAHOMA
15 Dime ---- LAKERS
5 Dime ---- LOUISVILLE
OKLAHOMA --- Top play today on the Oklahoma Sooners PLUS the points to challenge North Carolina for the outright win.
Before even handicapping this game myself, I was inundated with stories about how UNC was going to run the Sooners out of the gym. Not many outside the Sooner state are giving OU a chance to keep this game within ten. And while occasionally the general public is correct, in many cases they are dead wrong and I believe this to be the case today. There’s no question how much talent North Carolina has… especially with a healthy Ty Lawson running the point and scoring at will. But let’s not forget something… the Tar Heels don’t really care about playing defense. And although it hasn’t caught up with them yet, they also haven’t played a team that can make them pay for their lack of defense like Oklahoma can and will.
I believe the fact North Carolina wants this game in the 90s plays right into OU’s hands, because they can score with just about anyone. Shoot, they took their foot off the gas against Syracuse (a team that many handicappers had you believing was the hottest team in the tourney) and still scored 84. What others also had you believing was that the Orange had enough big thugs inside to beat up on Blake Griffin and take him out of his game. Well, 30 points and 14 rebounds later, Griffin was still dominating and just continues to get better. The only thing that slowed Griffin down was the backboard on a dunk from the baseline. It amazes me the comparisons of Tyler Hansborough to Blake Griffin. PLEASE!!! It’s not even close. I’m not dogging Hansborough, but he’s a stiff compared to Griffin and it will finally be proven today.
And let’s not forget all of the “role players” for both teams. I don’t know about you, but I’m getting sick and tired of hearing about Ellington and Lawson and Green. What about Crocker, Johnson and Warren? It absolutely boggles my mind that these guys don’t get any credit, but after they compete hard for 40 minutes against the Heels, the world will know who they are. And remember this… the Sooners were once considered the best team in the nation until Griffin went down with a concussion. It’s taken him a while, but he’s finally back to full strength and it’s shown over the first three games of the tourney. Now, back to those “role players”, one Tony Crocker. Since hitting 6 of 11 from distance back on Feb. 7 against Colorado, Crocker had gone cold nailing just 7 of his next 33… until Friday. Crocker hit 7 of 11 from downtown and appears to have found his stroke again. If the Tar Heels decide to double-down on Griffin, Crocker might start lighting a fire from outside. Beware.
Both teams are 6-1 SU on a neutral floor this year. OU is 4-1 ATS in their last five tourney games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven on a neutral floor. Oh yeah, I almost forgot. The Heels are just 1-6 ATS following a game in which they score more than 90 points and just 2-8 ATS following an ATS win. I wasn’t impressed with their 84-70 win over LSU and I’m telling you right now OU is loads better than LSU. Take the Sooners PLUS the points and don’t be surprised to see the SU upset win.
LA LAKERS --- I realize this is a road game for the Lakers and the Hawks are a fairly solid home team, but let’s not forget the fact the Hawks have dropped two straight at home. These two teams have identical records (Atlanta and the Lakers on the road), but they’re currently headed in opposite directions. The Lakers, who are currently chasing Cleveland for the best record in the NBA and home court advantage throughout the playoffs, have won five straight and eight of their last nine… all by six points or more and six of them on the road.
The last time these two met was back in February, and L.A. decided to play a little defense, beating the Hawks 96-83 as 8.5-point favorites. Though Atlanta will do whatever they can to stop Kobe Bryant, I’m not sure they have an answer for Pau Gasol, who hit 14 of 19 shots in their last win over New Jersey. The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last five following an ATS win, 4-0 ATS their last four as a favorite, 6-0 ATS in their last six road games, and 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. teams from the Eastern Conference. Guys, this one’s easy. Take the Lakers minus the small number to win by at least 10 today.
LOUISVILLE --- I’m a Big 10 guy and would love nothing more than to see Michigan State win this game to represent the conference in the Final Four. I’m kinda sick and tired of hearing about how mighty the Big East is, and if MSU was able to pull off the upset, we’d have two teams from the Big East, one from the Big 10 and one from either the Big 12 or ACC. More flavor, don’t you think? But my wishes are NOT going to come true as I see a 10-point + win from the Cardinals today. Rick Pitino is no stranger to this position, just like his counterpart, Tom Izzo, and you can bet he realizes this might be his best chance since his days in Kentucky at a National Championship.
Does MSU have talent? Absolutely. And if they can keep Louisville playing the type of game they want to play this game will end in the 60s. But one thing that I believe will, in the end, be State’s downfall is the lack of enough ball-handlers to beat Louisville’s press. All it’s going to take is a few mishaps in the backcourt and Michigan State will quickly find themselves down by 10-15 points. Shoot, if Kansas can get them down that quickly, what’s to say the Cardinals can’t open up a 20-point lead with all of those athletes and sharp-shooters? MSU will keep it close for a while, but in the end Louisville will be cutting down the nets and headed to the Final Four.