O.C. Dooley
Pick: Cavs/Lakers UNDER 203
“2 UNIT” NBA MARQUEE TOTAL (Cavaliers at Lakers UNDER 204 in a 3:35 eastern tipoff on ABC-TV): It comes as no shock that the first Sunday televised ABC package of the season has two of the NBA’s most popular players (Kobe, LeBron) involved, so the ratings for this late afternoon affair should be decent. LeBron James (29.7) leads the entire league in scoring this campaign, while Kobe Bryant (27.7) is right behind in the #2 position. Ever since center Andrew Bynum (knee) suffered a major injury that will keep the Lakers center out of the lineup until March, Kobe has had to step up his offensive production even more (32 points per game last five). But with Kobe once again dominating offensive possessions, his teammates have not been involved enough which has led to a recent string of Los Angeles losses. There is no question that Bynum’s injury is critical to handicapping this total, because so much of the Lakers offense actually ran through him. Even though Kobe Bryant is known for his offensive exploits, he is one of the few superstars in the entire league to guard the opposition’s best player nightly on DEFENSE, so he excels on both ends of the court. It is easy to see why today’s total is inflated, as the Lakers are averaging a whopping 109 points per game, which makes it imperative for Cleveland to SLOW down the pace of this contest and choke off all fast-breaks. The Cavaliers have actually been playing their best basketball of the entire season this month, as the entire team finally was healthy while off-the-court contract hassles were solved. But this team just suffered a major injury as Sasha Pavolic (sprained foot) will now be watching from the sidelines for the foreseeable future. That most likely will give veteran Larry Hughes additional playing time, but he is suffering through his worst offensive campaign as a pro, averaging LESS than 10 points per contest on weak 34% shooting from the field. I have mentioned on the premium service many times that the Cavaliers to a man, including LeBron, constantly bring up the point that they play their best basketball when making DEFENSIVE stops. I am fully aware that Cleveland just lost a very high scoring home game a few days ago 110-108 versus Phoenix. I am also aware that the Cavs offense put 121 total points on the scoreboard in a game played back on Wednesday. But all this has done is inflate today’s total, and I am taking advantage of the value that has created. Getting back to the Lakers, they have one of the league’s underrated players in Lamar Odom who not only is a tremendous DEFENDER, he is also pulling down an average of nearlyt 10 rebounds per contest, as he does all the dirty work, Note that Cleveland has played UNDER the total at a 66% clip with Mike Brown as head coach (36-18), when cast as an underdog of 3’-to-9’ points, which is the case in this marquee NBA contest.
Alex Smart
Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been playing some great basketball behind their maturing super star LeBron James , who is the NBAs top scorer, averaging just under 30 PPG. This afternoon on the road at the Staples Center against the LA Lakers and their own super star Kobe Bryant , the Cavs and James will be severely tested, but capable of a passing grade . Bottom line: The Lakers have been tough on all their league opponents this season, but since Andrew Bynum(13.1 PPG), went down with injury the team does not seem as cohesive, as is evident by losing 3 of their L/4 games. With that said take the points with the Cavaliers as they make it 5 straight wins in this series.
Bob Akmens
Northwestern @ Illinois o122.0
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 152 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.
The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.
Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows:
In this contest between two disappointing teams (especially the Illini at 9-11), the linemaker has put up a low total of 122. What’s this based on? Perhaps that the last 4 meetings between these two teams have gone under. But those were with better Illini teams. And certainly this totals-line is based on the perceived notion that both teams are involved in mostly low-scoring games.
Lines are set up to suit the general publics perception of an event – not necessarily the reality. For instance, the general betting public – and I don’t use that term in any pejorative sense, just distinguishing amateur bettors from the pros that handicap for a living – perceives the Illini as a superior defensive team almost year after year.
Well, some years that’s true – and others it’s not. Let’s look at the reality here. How have the totals gone in Illini games lately with this sort of 122 total? Here’s how:
WHEN THE TOTAL HAS BEEN IN THE 120’s, ILLINOIS IS 7-1 OVER LAST 8!
So right there, we have the separation of perception and reality, huh?
Here are some other numbers favoring the over in this game:
AS A FAVORITE, ILLINOIS HAS GONE OVER 9 OF THEIR LAST 13 TIMES
VS CONFERENCE OPPONENTS, ILLINOIS HAS GONE OVER 5 OF THEIR LAST 7 – CONTRAST THAT WITH A LONG-TERM RECORD IN THIS CATEGORY: JUST 16 OVERS OUT OF 42 GAMES
And Northwestern? As a bettor you make a huge mistake if you base any betting decision on just a unilateral perspective – you must always look at both teams performance:
NORTHWESTERN HAS GONE OVER 8 OF THEIR LAST 12 GAMES
NORTHWESTERN HAS GONE OVER 4 OF THEIR LAST 6 BIG-10 GAMES – AGAIN, CONTRAST THAT WITH LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE: JUST 16 OVERS IN THE LAST 40 CONFERENCE GAMES.
GO WITH OVER THE TOTAL OF 122 IN THIS 800PM EST MATCHUP.