Gina's
San Antonio Spurs (40-17) at New Jersey Nets (26-32)
The Nets have been unsuccessful against the Spurs. They have dropped nine straight against San Antonio, including the last four at Continental Airlines Arena. Take the Spurs to continue their domination over the Nets. The Spurs are 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games versus the Nets and 7-0 ATS in the last 7 in New Jersey.
New Jersey Nets are 0-5 both straight-up and against the spread in its last six games at home against the San Antonio Spurs.
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs - 5½
Houston Rockets - 4
Kelso
Chairmans 10 units Louisville
Best Bets
5 units Cincy
3 units St. Joes
College Cappers
CBB:
80 Dime - UCLA -5
35 Dime - Indiana +5
30 Dime - Maryland -1.5
NBA:
45 Dime - Cleveland -5.5
35 Dime - Boston -11
20 Dime - Denver +4.5
AFL:
10 Dime - Columbus/Colorado UNDER 97.5
MLB:
3 Dime - Minnesota +135
2 Dime - Cincinnati +110
FREE:
1 Dime - Kentucky +14.5 (CBB)
BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
MICHIGAN STATE
Game: Indiana vs. Michigan State
Prediction: Michigan State Reason: I'm laying the points with MICHIGAN STATE. I won with Indiana when these teams faced each other two weeks ago. At the time, the Hoosiers were right in the middle of the "Kelvin Sampson scandal" and they were coming off a heartbreaking loss vs. Wisconsin. The general public didn't believe that they could overcome the distractions and the Spartans were a very popular bet. The Hoosiers blew them out 80-61. Public sentiment has shifted considerably in two weeks though. While the general feeling is that any negative effects from the Sampson debacle are now finished, the Spartans have fallen largely out of public favor. Those two factors have kept this afternoon's line generously low. With the Spartans playing with revenge from the earlier embarrassment and playing their final home game of the regular season, I feel that it's too low. I don't necessarily agree that the lingering effects of the Sampson controversy are finished and won't be surprised if they "catch up" with the Hoosiers today. Regardless of their mindset, the Hoosiers have lost their last 13 games in East Lansing dating to a 62-56 win on Feb. 28, 1991. Michigan State was a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five of those games, winning each of the last four by a minimum of seven points. Spartans' scoring leader and preseason All-American Drew Neitzel, who is coming off a sub-par performance vs. wisconsin, will be playing his final game at the Breslin Center. Look for Neitzel an co. to bounce back in a big way, conintuing their homecourt dominance in this series and avenging the earlier loss with a convincing victory of their own. *Big 10 GOM
DEPAUL
Game: Notre Dame vs. DePaul
Prediction: DePaul Reason: I'm taking the points with DEPAUL. Led by Luke Harangody, the Irish are an explosive team which can put up a lot of points. They also allow a lot of points though, including a whopping 79.8 per game their last five times out. Coming off an important loss vs. Louisville, I expect them to be in a rather "deflated" mood this afternoon. Harangody's post game comments after the Louisville loss reveal the importance the Irish placed on the Louisville game: "If we got the win, that’s all I wanted. It was a huge opportunity. That's all we were looking for. I'm sad we didn't come out of here with a win." Stepping down in class to face a Depaul team which they already defeated, I won't be surprised if Notre Dame isn't fully focused here. Note that the Irish are 2-3 ATS their last five games against teams with a losing record and just 18-32 ATS their last 50 lined games against losing teams. During that stretch, they've also gone just 2-5 ATS when listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. While the Irish are coming off a huge game, this is a huge one for the the Blue Demons. Not only are they clinging to the 12th and final spot (top 12 of 16 advance to conference tournament) in the Big East but they're playing with "revenge," looking to snap their current skid AND also playing their final home game of the season. The Blue Demons earned the cover when they played at Notre Dame last month and the home team has won the last five games in this series. Its also worth noting that the Blue Demons were 6-1 ATS in March the last two years. I expect them to improve on those numbers with a highly motivated effort this afternoon. *Best Bet
ARIZONA
Game: UCLA vs. Arizona
Prediction: Arizona Reason: I'm taking the points with ARIZONA. The Bruins are having another strong season and are currently enjoying an impressive run. That has caused the public to fall in love with them and their lines to climb higher and higher. I expect those "inflated lines" to catch up with them here, as I feel that this afternoon's number is too high. Note that the Bruins are just 6-11 ATS the last 17 times they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. As good as they've been, the Bruins aren't unbeatable. They failed to cover in last weekend's game vs. Oregon and it wasn't all that long ago that they lost outright at Washington. Much like today, that was a Sunday game and the Bruins were coming in off a big road win (at Washington State) within the same state. (Today, they're coming in off a big win at Arizona State.) The Wildcats are stil without guard Nic Wise. However, they've still got a pair of highly capable scorers in Budinger and Bayless. This is their final home game of the season and they could desperately use a victory. While they've had some trouble covering the spread when listed as favorites, the Wildcats are a healthy 7-4 ATS when listed as underdogs. Looking back further and we find them at a highly profitable 38-18 ATS the last 56 times they were getting points, winning half of those games outright. The Wildcats struggled offensively last time out, managing only 58 points vs. USC. They've been able to bounce back from those type of performances very well though, going 4-1 SU/ATS after scoring 60 points or less in their previous game and 6-2 SU/ATS in that situation the past three seasons. Looking back further and we find them at 15-3 SU and 12-6 ATS the last 18 times that they failed to score 60 in their last game. I expect them to "bounce back" again with a huge performance in their home finale. *Contrarian GOM
NBA
NEW JERSEY
Game: San Antonio Spurs vs. New Jersey Nets
Prediction: New Jersey Nets Reason: I'm taking the points with NEW JERSEY. Both teams come off a win over the Bucks in their last game. The situation favors the Nets though, as they had the past two nights off while the Spurs faced Milwaukee last night. That game was tougher than San Antonio, now 11-17 ATS on the road, expected and I won't be surprised if the veteran champions are feeling the effects today. Even Spurs coach Gregg Popovich admitted that San Antonio was fortunate to win that game, saying: "We're certainly very fortunate to get the win. Milwaukee probably played better basketball for more minutes than we did. We had a really good third quarter and got back in and found a way to stumble through it at the end." In fact, the Spurs may well have lost outright if Milwaukee's Mo Williams didn't get ejected midway through the third quarter with the Bucks ahead by seven. Regardless, the point is that the Spurs really had to work hard and will now be playing their third game in the past four days. While the Spurs did manage a 5-point win/cover at Toronto a couple of weeks ago, they're still an ugly 1-6 ATS their last seven games against teams from the Atlantic and a money-burning 4-10 ATS over the past 12 months when playing the second of back to back games. They'll face a New Jersey team which is fighting to stay alive in the Eastern Conference playoff race and one which has seemingly recoverd from all the negative energy affecting them prior to the Jason Kidd Trade. Indeed, Thursday's win over Milwaukee brought the Nets to 5-1 their last six home games. Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson each scored 19 points and newly acquired Devin Harris came off the bench to add an impressive 21 in his Nets' debut. Coming from Dallas, Harris knows all about the Spurs and I expect him to deliver another quality performance in his second game. The Nets know how important this game is, particularly as they hit the road for five games next, starting with a rematch vs. the Spurs on Tuesday. Look for them to continue their recent strong homecourt play while the Spurs' road and "back to back" struggles continue. *Best Bet
BULLS
Game: Chicago Bulls vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Chicago Bulls Reason: I'm taking the points with CHICAGO. This game will mean a little more than normal to both teams. Not only are they division rivals but these teams are meeting for the first time since the recent blockbuster trade (and first time this season) which included Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden going to Chicago and Ben Wallace and Joe Smith going to Cleveland. While both teams will want to play well against their former teammates, I feel that the Bulls have both more to play for and more to prove than do the Cavs. After blowing a 52-34 halftime lead vs. Washington on Friday, Bulls interim coach Jim Boylan said: "We embarrassed the organization and the city of Chicago tonight. I apologize for that." That sounds an awful lot like what Coach Knight said at Texas Tech after the Red Raiders were embarrassed by Texas A&M. Knight's team, listed as a similar size underdog as the Bulls are today, responded by knocking off Texas outright yesterday. I expect "Boylan's team," to also respond with its best effort. While the Cavs already appear to be locked in either the #4 or #5 seed, the Bulls are fighting for their playoff lives, currently in 10th in the conference. The loss to Washington notwithstanding, the Bulls have been highly competitive over the last month. In fact, they're 9-4 ATS since the beginning of February. Conversely, the Cavs are 5-8 ATS their past 13 games, most recently narrowly failing to cover vs. Minnesota. They did hold Minnesota to just 84 points in that game which is noteworthy as we find them at 1-6 ATS (2-5 SU) this season after holding their previous opponent to 85 points or less. For the season, they're also a dismal 9-19 ATS here at home. I expect the Cavs to have their hands full once again and feel that the Bulls have an excellent shot at the outright win.
UNDER Blazers/Warriors
Game: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Golden State Warriors
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Warriors and Blazers to finish UNDER the number. We all know that the Warriors can score. In fact, they've failed to reach triple digits in scoring only eight times this season. However, two of those games came in the previous two meetings vs. Portland when the Warriors managed just 95 and 91 points. As Coach Nelson had to say following the most recent loss: "...They match up well with us and we don't match up well with them." While the Warriors have been a profitable "over" team for the season, they are coming off back to back games which stayed below the number. Additionally, its interesting to note that they've seen the UNDER go 10-1 the last 11 times they played on a Sunday. The Blazers are coming off a high-scoring home game vs. the Lakers. However, their previous two games both came on the road (vs. the Clippers and Lakers) and had combined final scores of just 162 and 179. Including those results, the Blazers have seen the UNDER go a perfect 8-0 their past eight road games. Including the two earlier meetings, which both finished below the total, the UNDER is also a highly profitable 12-2 the last 14 games in this series. That includes a 6-0-1 mark the last seven times that the teams met here in California. Portland only cracked the 90 point mark once (scored 94 in 2004) in those seven games and averaged a mere 83.3 points. With the exception of the game which landed right on the number, the other six games all stayed below the total by double-digits. Tonight's big number gives us plenty of room to work with and I'm expecting the final combined score to stay beneath it once again. *Blue Chip
Frank Rosenthal
NBA HOOPS
504 LAKERS-5
OVER 207
517 NUGGETS+5
UNDER 207
520 WARRIORS-5
OVER 210.5
522 KINGS-5.5
COLLEGE HOOPS
523 PROVIDENCE+5
525 KY+14.5 S
OVER 142
528 DEPAUL+5
UNDER 156.5
536 ARIZONA+5.5
537 NOVA+12
OVER 137
542 MARYLAND-1
OVER 147.5
544 OREGON ST+10.5
PSYCHIC
NCAAB
2 units Depaul +5.5
2 units Temple +6.5
NBA
3 units Denver +4
DA STICK
5 units Buffalo -115
Michael Cannon
20 Dime –
NOTRE DAME
Take the Irish as the road chalk today over DePaul.
I can’t see DePaul slowing down the force that is Luke Harangody. The big sophomore is coming off a career-best 40-points in Thursday’s loss at Louisville. He almost single-handily brought the Irish back from a 19-point deficit before falling, 90-85.
It helps that Notre Dame is playing for one of the four byes into the quarterfinals for the Big East tournament.
I do expect the Irish to bounce back from that loss at Louisville and the combination of Harangody and Kyle McAlarney will be too much for the Blue Demons to handle.
DePaul is just playing out the string right now, having lost four straight and eight of nine. They have shot only 39.8 percent from the floor in the last six games.
Take Notre Dame minus the number as they grab the cash with the road win and cover.
10 Dime –
CINCINNATI
Take the Bearcats as the home chalk today over Providence.
Cincinnati made a pledge to get revenge for all of its conference losses last year, and they’ve actually made good on most of them. They couldn’t in last Saturday’s loss to Georgetown because the Hoyas are an elite team, but that doesn’t apply here today.
Providence doesn’t have a consistent offense, and they are in the midst of a terrible free fall, having lost five straight and nine of its last 10. They are 0-5 ATS during their current losing streak.
Cincinnati had won three straight before dropping both of its two recent road games, to Georgetown and Pitt, but those losses are understandable considering the Hoyas are in another class and the Panthers had revenge motive for an earlier loss at Cincinnati.
Take the Bearcats minus the points as they grab the home win and cover.
Billionaire Boys Club
10,000,000* Chicago+6
5,000,000* New Jersey+5
5,000,000* Bobcats +4'
5,000,000* Depaul+4'
SEABASS
100* Mich St
Seabass Hockey
20* Fla
Stan Sharp
SAN ANTONIO -5.0
Arthur Ralph
Super Pick: Michigan St -5
900 Daily Play: Notre Dame -5
John Ryan LIVE NHL Major DOGS
3* LA Kings
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Los Angeles Kings – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 28-15 and has made 27.5 units since 1996. Play against home favorites against the money line that are off 2 consecutive road wins by 1 goal and is a tired team playing their 4th game in 7 days. Kings have a strong PP unit and Minnesota is just 7-15 against the money line (-10.5 Units) against excellent power play teams that are scoring on >17.5% of their chances this season. Take the Kings.
3* Atlanta
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Atlanta– Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 64-33 and has made 38.5 units since 2002. Play against home teams against the money line revenging a loss where opponent scored 4 or more goals and is an extremely tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days. Atlanta is 13-9 against the money line (+7.7 Units) against excellent power play teams that are scoring on > 19% of their chances this season. Pittsburgh off two straight losses allowing 5 goals in each. Note that Pittsburgh is just 9-19 against the money line (-13.5 Units) in home games after allowing 4 goals or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Take Atlanta.
Larry Ness
cbb insider - cincinnati
cbb www - michigan state
nba insider - lakers
nba 20* - gs warriors
Gamblers Data
Temple +6.5
Drew Gordon Sunday Picks:
1. 200,000* Mavericks
2. 50,000* Indiana
1. Mavericks- Got to like the Mavericks in this spot for several reasons, but let's start with Jason Kidd. While its true they lost at San Antonio in their last road game, there's no question the Mavs are a better team with Jason Kidd. He was even better against Sacramento Friday, and I expect both Kidd and the Mavs will only improve as he gets more accustomed to their system and personnel. The fact he's matched up against the smaller Derek Fisher, could mean big problems for the Lakers this afternoon.
Second, if you saw the Mavericks play at San Antonio, is there any question they're one of the top teams in the West? They bring one of the better blends of offense and defense to the table, scoring 101 ppg, while allowing only 92 ppg over their last 5 games overall! They were a couple plays away from winning outright against the Spurs, a team I believe to be superior to the Lakers, despite the Gasol trade.
Match up-wise, neither team can cover the others superstar, as both Kobe and Nowitzki will run rampant over their defenders. Also, you can bet both Gasol and Josh Howard will control their match ups as well. The difference in this match up is two-fold: A. the Mavs are the deeper team & B. They have a huge edge at the point guard position with Kidd over Fisher. Its those two edges that propel the Mavs to the cover in this one, and even possibly win outright.
Bottom line, Dallas is the play here, as I just don't see the Lakers beating them by that many points. In fact, as mentioned above, it wouldn't surprise me if the Mavs won outright here, especially after the way they played at San Antonio. Make no mistake, The Mavs acquired Jason Kidd for exactly this kind of match up, and I say the veteran point guard makes the difference today, as Dallas grab the cash in this one!
Take the Mavericks plus the points over the L.A. Lakers as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Indiana- A couple close ones for the Hoosiers as they adapt to life without coach Sampson, but I believe they're ready for a bigtime match up this afternoon in East Lansing and here's why
Pop in the tape of their last meeting, and you'll see why the Spartans are in trouble here this afternoon. Despite the fact the Hoosiers got almost nothing from D.J. White and Armon Bassett, Indiana's offense still rolled. Why? Two words: Eric Gordon. The sensational freshman was unstoppable in delivering one of his biggest games of the season - 28 points on 9 of 15 shooting! You know damn well White and Bassett will not go quiet once again in this one, while stopping Gordon is out of the question for the Spartans guards.
Herein lies the problem for the Spartans, as they rely on their defense to make up for their offensive shortcomings. True, Michigan State is better offensively in East Lansing, but not good enough to cover the number in this one. Remember guys, Indiana can play defense too, allowing just 65 ppg on 39% shooting away this season!
Finally, for all the hoopla surrounding the Spartans 17-0 SU record at home, they've been consistently overvalued at the Breslin Center, going just 2-7 ATS over their last 9 home games. Indiana meanwhile, is 6-4 ATS on the road, and that includes the scare at Northwestern, which we can chalk up to the emotions of losing their coach. Note, Indiana is also only a 1/2 game back from Wisconsin and Purdue in the Big Ten, so you better believe they've got plenty of motivation to win here today.
Bottom line, Michigan State may keep their perfect SU record at home, but they'll need to win dogfight to do it. Indiana has the match ups, the motivation, and the defense to keep this game competitive, and I say that's exactly what they do this afternoon in East Lansing.
Take Indiana plus the points over Michigan State in this Big Ten match up.
Tonight's Games...
1. 50,000* Maryland
2. 50,000* Pacers
1. Maryland- Great spot for the Terrapins, as Clemson is coming off their 20th win of the season, and will be returning to the road, where they've proven much more vulnerable. If you saw them play at Florida State in their last road game, then you know exactly the kind of inconsistent effort this Tigers team is capable of on the highway, losing outright 64-55 as 3'-point favorites.
So what happens to the Tigers when they travel? Apparently, they forget to pack their defense, allowing 73 ppg on 42% shooting this season. Those numbers pail in comparison to the kind of attacking defense they're going to see from Maryland tonight at home, allowing 64 ppg on 37% shooting, which is outstanding by anyone's measure.
Match ups also slightly favor the Terrapins, as they've got the best player on the court in G Grievis Vasquez. Not to mention, fowards Gist (31 points 11 boards in last game) and Osby are more than capable of matching up with the Tigers frontcourt of Booker and Mays.
Finally, there's two much over-looked factors I want to discuss: A. This is the Terrapins final home game, marking senior forwards Gist and Osby last regular season game in front of the home crowd, and you better believe they'll be looking to impress. And B. In a game expected to be very competitive, don't be surprised if Clemson's inability to shoot free throws (62% on season) dooms them in the end. Terrapins roll in this one!
Take Maryland at home over Clemson in this ACC showdown.
2. Pacers- I gave you the Bucks as 50K bonus play covering against the Spurs in Milwaukee last night, but tonight things are much different. For starters, this game is on the road, where the Bucks have been garbage all season, going just 6-25 SU & 12-18 ATS. They've lost their last 3 road games, all by double-digits, including an ugly one at New Jersey Thursday, getting blown out 120-106... What makes you think tonight will be any different?!
With Danny Granger returning to the lineup, and the Pacers coming off an impressive outright road win at Toronto 122-111 as an 11-point dog, Indiana is poised to get the solid win here tonight. So how do they do it? With offense, averaging 106 ppg over their last 5 games! How in the hell do you expect the Bucks to keep pace, when they can only muster about 93 ppg on the road this season?!
We're all aware of Milwaukee's shortcoming on defense, but lately, they've taken it to a whole other level of mediocrity, allowing a mind-boggling 110 ppg on 48% shooting over their last 5 games! If the Pacers can score 122 points at Toronto, without Granger, then they sure as hell can light up this struggling Bucks defense.
Finally, the last factor we have to discuss is fatigue, as the Bucks are coming off a hard-fought loss to the Spurs last night. Milwaukee is 7-8 ATS on no rest, but in this case, against a high-octane Pacers offense, their tired legs will really cost them. In the end, Milwaukee is terrible on the road, and while indiana is no powerhouse, they're more than capable of taking this Bucks team behind the woodshed in this one. A tired, road-weary Bucks team doesn't stand a chance at Conseco Fieldhouse tonight!
Take the Pacers comfortably over the Bucks in this NBA match up.
Razor Sharp
Diamond Club Play: UCLA -5
Regular Service:
50 Stars: Indiana +5
20 Stars: Orgegon -10
Bob Balfe
NBA Basketball
Bulls +6 over Cavs
College Basketball
DePaul +5.5 over Notre Dame
Savannah Sports
4 units on Cincinnati -5
BOB AKMENS
-- Major League Baseball --
LA Dodgers (-125) / 1 units
Chicago Cubs (-130) / 1 units
-- National Basketball Association --
Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 / 3 units
-- Arena Football --
Columbus Destroyers +6.0 / 3 units
-- College Basketball --
Villanova - Louisville UNDER 138.0 / 3 units
-- National Basketball Association --
Toronto Raptors - Charlotte Bobcats OVER199.0 / 3 units
Lenny Del Genio
Play on Cincinnati
History and the situation totally favor a play on the Bearcats here. Providence is on a 0-5 SU/ATS run, including double-digit losses in three of their last four games. A 27-point setback at West Virginia last Saturday puts them in a terrible spot. They are 0-9 against the spread away from home when coming off a double-digit loss in conference play and 0-6 vs. the number coming off a loss by 15 or more points, regardless of the previous opponent. The Friars are also just 5-17 ATS if they were a road underdog in their previous contest. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is coming off back-to-back losses, but history suggests a bounce back. Also, after playing Georgetown and Pitt, this is a steep drop in class. The Bearcats are a perfect 7-0 vs. the number off a road loss this season and a perfect 6-0 ATS coming off a conference loss. How can one argue with five trends that add up to a 45-5 ATS edge for your side, especially when Providence's leading scorer Jeff Xavier is dinged up? Cincinnati is our CBB Oddsmakers Mismatch.
Tom Freese
Game: Oregon at Oregon St.
Prediction: Oregon
Reason: Oregon is 8-2 ATS off a road game and they are 15-6 ATS off two straight games where they had 9 or less offensive rebounds. The Ducks have won the last two meetings vs. the Beavers by 16 and 21 points. Oregon St is 0-6 ATS off two straight conference games and they are 0-6 ATS home with revenge. The Beavers are 3-11 ATS off a double digit loss and they are 0-8 ATS at home off one or more straight losses.
PLAY ON OREGON