The 'Sportsmen'
5* Siena+ 1 unit
5* Davidson+ 1 unit
5* Texas- 1 unit
5* Dallas- 1 unit
Inside Information
2* Tennessee
2* North Carolina
Maddux Sports
3* Raptors
3* Western Kentucky
3* North Carolina
3* Butler Under
3* Mississippi St
Root
Chairman - Villanova
Millionaire - Davidson
Money Maker - Arkansas
No Limit - Oklahoma
Seabass
100 Vegas steam Villanova/Sienna Over
20 Nova
50 Davidson
20 SD
20 Ark
20 Miss St
20 Mavs
20 Lakers
Doc's
4 Unit Play.Take San Diego +5 over Western Kentucky
4 Unit Play.Take Georgetown -4 ½ over Davidson
4 Unit Play. Take North Carolina -11 over Arkansas
Breakfast Club
Texas
Louisville
Robert Ferringo
6-Unit Play. Take Arkansas (+11.5) over North Carolina
Note: This is our Game of the Week.
When the brackets were announced one of the first thoughts I had was that Arkansas would be North Carolina. That was it: first thought when I saw the bracket. I’m going with it. Arkansas just rolled Tennessee last week. If they can hang with the Vols they can hang with the heels. The Razorbacks have size to matchup with Tyler Hansbrough down low and their guards can play with UNC’s. In some ways I think Arkansas is a bit like Clemson, a team that gave North Carolina a lot of trouble. The ACC has only covered 25 percent of the time as a double-digit favorite over the last 10 tournaments. In the second round alone they are 2-12 ATS as favorites of 10 or more. We saw yesterday in the UCLA game that teams are fearless at this point in the season. And if Arkansas shoots like they did against Indiana then they can win this game outright. Will they? Who knows. We have to see how well UNC plays it. But I like the ‘Backs to stun some people.
2-Unit Play. Take Davidson (+5.5) over Georgetown
Fear the Wildcats. Davidson has lost by four to UNC, by six to Duke, and had a lead in the second half at UCLA. They can play with elite competition and they are not one-hit wonders. The thing that strikes me about the Wildcats is how well they play off Stephen Curry and how they exploit teams over-guarding Curry to find open shots for everyone else. PG Jason Richards only went 4-for-14 against Gonzaga. So while Curry isn’t going to go for 40 again today I think Richards will pick up the slack. The No. 10 seed has gone 13-4 ATS recently in the second round of the dance and has been a money play against the No. 2 seed. Further, the Big East is just 1-8 ATS as a favorite in the second round.
2-Unit Play. Take Butler (+4.5) over Tennessee
Tennessee struggled with American. American. Butler plays a similar deliberate style, only they are much, much better. The Bulldogs look like they are on a mission and they are a fantastic underdog. Butler beat the Vols outright in last year’s preseason NIT. This is a better UT team, but it may be a better Butler squad as well. I simply don’t think that anyone will blow out the Bulldogs and I do think they can win outright.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Miami (+7) over Texas
I, like everyone else who knows squat about college hoops, thinks that Texas is going to destroy Miami. It shouldn’t be close. The Longhorns are clearly the better team and should shoot the ‘Canes out of the gym. But here’s the thing: that type of logic has gotten people (myself included) worked over recently. This number seems off, and seems way too low. It just seems too easy, much like the Pittsburgh game did on Saturday. Miami is 9-0 ATS in nonconference games and 18-7-3 ATS overall. They also have two things that no team that Texas has played recently (Kansas excluded): they have both frontcourt athletes to matchup with Texas’ AND a top-level guard that can go toe-to-toe with Texas’ stellar backcourt.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Siena (+5.5) over Villanova
I think these teams are just too close for this type of cushion. Villanova has better overall players, and they have the best player on the floor (Scottie Reynolds, who could go for 35). But Siena actually has a bit more experience and they are fearless. The Saints have some athletes and they can play a little ball. They are also the hot team. They’ve won seven straight, including W’s over Vandy and Boise State, two tourney teams. They’re also 10-2 in their L12 with an OT loss and a one-point loss as the only blemishes. They are 5-0 ATS as a dog over the last three months and I do think they can win this one. The Big East has been representing in the tournament. But, historically, they are a bad play as a favorite in the second round. Recently they are 1-8 ATS as a second-round fave, including last night’s loss by Pittsburgh. I’m on the ‘under’ as well because both teams just came out of a game in which they shot over 50 percent from the field, 50 percent from 3-point land, and 80 percent from the free throw line. Somebody isn’t doing that again.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 127 Oklahoma vs. Louisville
UL shot 50 percent from 3-point land on Friday. I don’t see them repeating that feat considering they shoot 34 percent on the season. I see the pace of this game screeching to a halt in the second half, and Louisville, who I think will be leading, doesn't make its free throws. Kick in a lot of missed 3-pointers by the Sooners and I think this one is a close, grind-it-out contest played in the 50's. That makes the spread a bit too much and the total a bit too high. I don't see either team hitting 70 so we should be OK.
LT's LOCK
Western Kentucky -5
ATSlocks.com
15 Units Texas -7
10 Units San Diego +5.5
10 Units Siena +5.5
10 Units Davidson +5
8 Units Butler +4.5
8 Units Louisville -7
Strike Point Sports
3-Unit Play.Take Siena +5 over Villanova
I'm not quite sure the Wildcats deserved to even be favored in this game. Yes, they looked good in their comeback over Clemson, but still were getting pounded for a half vs. the Tigers in round one. Siena put it on Vanderbilt for the entire game and increased its lead as the game progressed. That couple with the fact that I argue 'Nova didn't even deserve to be in the Big Dance, and we'll see the MAAC champs advance into the Sweet 16.
3-Unit Play.Take Mississippi State +9 over Memphis
Another play against conventional wisdom. This is March, and it's wear upset happens (to take a page out of the NBA's slogan). But nonetheless, the Bulldogs have a nice defensive prowess, as well as some upset minded players in Jamont Gordon and Jarvis Vernardo. Look out for Mississippi State here.
3-Unit Play.Take Arkansas +11 over North Carolina
After seeing UCLA nearly slip up in the second round, this is too many points for a talented Hogs team to be getting. Arkansas has weapons all around, particularly on the wings with Sonny Weems and Patrick Beverly. I say they give UNC a good run for its money, just like we saw Texas A&M vs. the Bruins on Saturday. This one will be a back-and-forth affair, but in the end this large number will stand up.
GOLD SHEET NEWSLETTER PICKS
NBA Key Release
Detroit By 15 Over Washington
College Hoops Key Release
Georgetown By 16 Over Davidson
GINA - Sports Rumble
Golden State Warriors (42-26) at Los Angeles Lakers (48-21)
Golden State is averaging 110.9 points per game, the highest scoring team in the league, but currently is playing horrible defense, allowing an average of 112 points per game in its last five games. Look for the Lakers and Kobe Bryant to pound the Warriors tonight at the Staples Center. The Warriors have lost 25 of its last 27 battles versus the Lakers and nine straight at Los Angeles. Golden State is 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Los Angeles Lakers
Teddy June
10* Western Kentucky
10* Mississippi State
10* Miami
Bob Akmens
3* Siena Under 145
3* Texas Under 140½
3* Louisville Under 126