Totals 4 U
Southern California @ Arizona State
Southern California (15-7, 6-4 PAC 10) The Trojans were overmatched from the gate last Saturday by UCLA’s defense, heading into the break with a 21-44 deficit, before finally falling at Pauley Pavilion 60-76 in a game Tim Floyd’s (78-44 in 4th season at Los Angeles) crew committed 23 turnovers. Before you write this unit off, though, consider the Bruins are crushing everyone right now and USC had previously banked 3 consecutive big wins over Washington State, Stanford, and California. Possibly a bigger issue is the dislocated finger suffered in that game by Wooden Award Candidate 6’9” 225 junior F Taj Gibson (14.3p, 10.0r) just prior to halftime. X-rays were negative and we expect Gibson (.574 field, conference-best 63 blocks) to go but keep an eye on his mitts when the Trojan travel to Arizona Thursday night. Size across the board (36.7 rebounds vs. 31.1 for opponents) is the major feature of this squad with 6’5” junior guard Daniel Hackett (11.2p, 3.9r, 5.0a) and Dwight Lewis (15.5p, 3.1r, 1.5a) manning the backcourt and capable deep threats (combined 57 of 151) for a team that has only attempted 264 shots from behind the arc all season. In the swing is 6’7” 220 G/F DeMar DeRozan (12.5p, 5.2r, 1.1a) and joining Gibson on the blocks is a super garbage man in 6’7” 230 freshman F Leonard Washington (7.3p, 4.9r) who is healthy again after missing 5 games to injury. Coach Floyd generally plays only about 7 deep but his contributing bench players also bring the beef with 6’10” 225 senior F Keith Wilkinson (3.5p, 3.1r, 1.3a) a veteran that can be relied on for productive minutes and 6’10” 220 freshman F Nikola Vucevic (2.5p, 2.3r) a talented youngster still growing into his body that has shown flashes of a fine future. In the PAC 10 there are few nights off and USC has run the gauntlet pretty well, managing a 5-3 mark over their last 8 opponents that currently sport a 133-51 combined record, and their 7 losses have come to teams sitting at 122-40. By the numbers Southern California scores 68.9 points per game (.470 field, .314 from 3-point) while a stacked schedule to average 62.2 points per game (.396 field, .334 from 3-point) and hold a 3-6 mark away from the Galen Center.
Arizona State (18-5, 7-4 PAC 10) The Sun Devils overcame a poor shooting performance (16 of 42) Saturday in Corvallis with smothering defense to top the Beavers 49-38 to complete last week’s road sweep over Oregon and Oregon State. 6’1” junior PG Derek Glasser (7.1p, 2.3r, 4.9a) was held out of that contest after taking a scary fall last week at Oregon from a hard pick. The diagnosis was a neck sprain and he should return this week but keep an eye out for Glasser Thursday night when the Devils host UCLA Thursday night. In his place 6’2” sophomore Jamelle McMillan (4.5p, 2.0r, 1.9a) made the most of his 2nd start this season with 14 points, 4 boards, 4 assists, and 5 steals with his father, former NBA star and current Portland Trailblazers coach Nate McMillan, in attendance. Guard play drives Coach Herb Sendek’s (47-40 in 3rd season at Tempe) philosophy and he has super personnel this season’s attempt for a back to back 20-win season. 6’5” sophomore G James Harden (21.9p, 5.4r, 4.0a, 42 steals) not only leads the conference in scoring and steals per game but is a dynamite shooter from behind the arc with 40 makes in 108 attempts and is our selection for the nation’s best all-around young player. Yes, at Arizona State! Swingman 6’6” 205 sophomore G/F Rihards Kuksiks (10.4p, 3.9r, 1.1a) is also a marksman with 59 makes behind the arc in 127 tries and 6’3” sophomore G Ty Abbott (7.0p, 4.2r, 1.8a) rounds out the backcourt. The Sun Devils don’t have a ton of capable players to man the blocks but the guy they do is pure warrior. 6’9” 240 senior F Jeff Pendergraph (13.7p, 7.9r, 1.0a) has superb body control and leads the NCAA in shooting percentage at a whopping 67.6% with 127 buckets in 188 shots. Other than McMillan, the only other notable bench contributor is 6’3” junior G Jerren Shipp (3.5p, 2.1r, 1.0a) – brother of UCLA’s Josh whom he will face Thursday night. By the numbers Arizona State scores 70.2 points (.480 field, .355 from 3-point) per game while allowing only 58.4 (.401 field, .322 from 3-point) to opponents and hold an 8-2 record at Wells Fargo Arena.
SELECTION: The Sun Devils play on the perimeter is as good as any squad in the country - both on offense where they boast the conference’s best assist/turnover ratio at 1.33 and have nailed 182 of 513 shots from downtown and on defense where they heist 6.4 steals per game. A season advantage on the boards of 32.0 to 28.9 per game is enough to hold their own against the Trojans and a free throw edge of 74.1% versus just 67.1% for USC seals the deal. Take Arizona State.
Jeff Hochman
East vs. West
Play: West -4.5
As a former odds-maker I always set my own lines in every lined game on the board. I have the West -6.5 points with a total of 265.
I just think the West has too much size for the East to handle. Keep in mind with Shaq, Kobe, and Phil reunited, they are going to be extra motivated. The affect on the entire team will be quite evident.
I doubt the East will even care midway through the 4th quarter. That's when the West will pull away and win convincingly.
SPORTS ADVISORS
(6) Duke (20-4, 11-11-1 ATS) at Boston College (18-8, 11-10 ATS)
Duke attempts to rebound from Wednesday’s humbling home loss to third-ranked North Carolina when it treks north to Chestnut Hill, Mass., for an ACC battle with Boston College.
The Blue Devils got outscored 57-35 in the second half Wednesday en route to a 101-87 loss to the Tar Heels as a two-point home underdog. Duke shot 48.6 percent from the field, but allowed North Carolina to connect on 54.8 percent of its shots and 27 of 31 free throws. The Blue Devils, who had given up more than 80 points just once all season – when Michigan scored 81 – have now dropped three of their last five games (1-4 ATS) following a 10-game winning streak.
Boston College has followed up a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) with back-to-back SU and ATS setbacks to Wake Forest (93-76 as an 11-point road underdog) and Clemson (87-77 as a 3½-point home pup). The Eagles have surrendered nearly 84 ppg in their five ACC defeats compared with 68.8 ppg in their six conference wins.
Duke dropped to 7-3 SU and 4-6 ATS in ACC play with the loss to North Carolina, and it has lost its last two conference road games (0-2 ATS) at Wake Forest (70-68) and Clemson (74-47). B.C. is 6-5 SU and 5-6 ATS in league action, but only 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS at home.
The Eagles are winless in seven meetings with Duke going back to 2001, including 0-3 at home, but they’re 4-2-1 ATS (2-1 ATS at home). In last year’s lone meeting, the Blue Devils prevailed 90-80 at home, but came nowhere near covering as an 18-point chalk. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six series clashes.
Duke’s 1-4 ATS slump has all come in ACC play, and it is also 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games following an outright loss, 0-4 ATS in its last four against winning teams and 1-4 ATS this season as a single-digit favorite. However, the Blue Devils have cashed in four straight contests following a double-digit home defeat. Boston College carries a slew of ATS slumps into this one, including 1-5 at home, 0-5 after a double-digit home loss, 1-4 after a SU defeat of any kind and 3-7 against winning teams.
All seven meetings between these teams have gone over the total. Also, for B.C., the over is on runs of 6-1-1 overall (all in the ACC), 20-6 at home and 7-0 versus teams with a winning record. The over is also 7-0 in Duke’s last seven against winning teams, but the under is 21-7 in its last 28 overall, 13-3 in its last 16 ACC games and 4-0 in its last four on Sunday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(3) North Carolina (22-2, 10-12 ATS) at Miami, Fla. (15-8, 9-8-1 ATS)
Four days after an impressive 14-point win at archrival Duke, North Carolina heads back on the road when it visits Miami, Fla., in ACC action.
The Tar Heels overcame an eight-point halftime deficit and throttled the Blue Devils 101-87 as a two-point road chalk Wednesday, running their winning streak – all in ACC play – to eight in a row (4-4 ATS). All five UNC starters scored in double figures against Duke, led by point guard Ty Lawson, who had a game-high 25 points while also contributing four rebounds and five assists. Both teams finished with 34 field goals, but the Heels won the game at the free-throw line, going 27-for-31 compared with 11-for-18 for Duke.
Miami has been idle since last Saturday, when it squandered a 32-19 halftime lead at Duke and lost 78-75 in overtime, but covered as a 14-point underdog. It was the fourth defeat in the Hurricanes’ last five games (2-3 ATS), with three of them coming in overtime. On the bright side, the last time the ‘Canes were at home, they throttled Wake Forest 79-52 as a 2½-point home pup.
The Tar Heels have won 21 of their 22 games by 14 points or more and are averaging 91.7 ppg (48.4 percent shooting) and allowing 72 ppg (40.4 percent). Miami puts up 74.6 ppg (43.7 percent shooting) and gives up 66.1 ppg (39.1 percent).
Since losing its first two conference games to Boston College and Wake Forest, North Carolina has won eight in a row and now sits alone atop the ACC standings at 8-2, but only 4-6 ATS. On the road in conference, Roy Williams’ squad is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS.
These teams met Jan. 17 in Chapel Hill, N.C., and the Tar Heels rolled to an 82-65 win, but came up a hair short as a 17½-point home favorite. North Carolina has won the last four meetings (3-1 ATS) and six of the last seven (4-3 ATS), including consecutive double-digit routs the last two years in South Beach (98-82 as an eight-point road chalk in 2007; 80-70 as a one-point road pup in 2006). The visitor has cashed in five of the last six series clashes.
North Carolina is 9-4 ATS as a favorite of less than 20 points this season and has also covered in 31 of its last 46 games against teams with a winning record. On the downside, the Heels are mired in pointspread funks of 4-10 following a SU win, 0-6 after a spread-cover, 4-9 in ACC play, 1-4 on Sunday and 0-4 following a game in which they scored more than 90 points. Miami is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine after a SU loss and 5-2 ATS as an underdog this year, but 1-4-1 ATS in its last six at home.
Last month’s meeting between these teams stayed under the total, ending a 4-0 “over” stretch in this rivalry. The over is also on runs for UNC of 5-1 overall (all in the ACC), 4-1 on the road and 13-3 on Sunday. Miami is also riding “over” streaks of 5-1 overall (all in the ACC), 19-9 after a SU loss and 4-1 versus winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER
USC (15-8, 10-11 ATS) at (18) Arizona State (19-5, 13-7 ATS)
Fresh off an impressive home win over No. 11 UCLA, Arizona State returns to Wells Fargo Arena looking to avenge a loss to USC and further damage the slumping Trojans’ NCAA Tournament hopes.
The Sun Devils pulled away in the final couple of minutes against UCLA on Thursday, winning 74-67 as a 1½-point home underdog to become the first Pac-10 team to sweep a season series from the Bruins in three years. Arizona State, which is trying to win its first-ever Pac-10 title, shot an astounding 60 percent from the field, making 11 of 18 tries from three-point range. Star forward James Harden led the way with 15 points and 11 rebounds.
After closing out January with three straight wins, the Trojans have opened February with consecutive losses, including Thursday’s 83-76 setback at Arizona as a 2½-point road pup. USC had a 27-19 rebounding edge and made 51.8 percent of its shots in the defeat, going 10-for-17 from three-point range. However, the Trojans couldn’t get a stop, as Arizona shot 59.1 percent from the field (12-for-20 on three-pointers).
Arizona State is tied for second place in the Pac-10 at 8-4 SU and ATS, including 3-2 SU and ATS at home, and the SU winner has covered the spread in each of the team’s last 14 lined games. The Trojans are 6-5 SU and 5-6 ATS in league action (2-4, 3-3 ATS on the road).
The Sun Devils went to USC on Jan. 15 as a one-point road favorite and fell 61-49, as Harden missed all eight of his field-goal attempts and was held to just four points (all on free throws). USC has won the last two meetings, including a four-point victory in last year’s Pac-10 tournament, but Arizona State is still 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes. Also, the home team has won five consecutive regular-season battles, cashing in each of the last four. Finally, the underdog has covered in 10 of the last 12 meetings.
Despite Thursday’s setback at Arizona, the Trojans are still on positive pointspread upticks of 24-11 on the road, 22-10 on the road versus teams with a winning home record, 20-8 after a SU loss and 6-2 after an ATS setback. However, they have failed to cover in four consecutive Sunday games. ASU is on ATS runs of 5-2 overall and 11-4-1 in Pac-10 play.
The over has hit six of the last seven times USC has played at Arizona State. Additionally, the over is on stretches of 5-2 for the Sun Devils at home, 4-0 for the Trojans overall (all in Pac-10 play) and 5-2 for the Trojans on the road. Conversely, the under is 5-1 in USC’s last six Sunday contests, 7-3 in ASU’s last 10 overall (all in the Pac-10), 5-2 in ASU’s last seven on Sunday and 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Rocketman
Illinois Chicago @ Valparaiso
Play: Illinois Chicago +1.5
Valparaiso is 3-13 ATS since 1997 after a win against a conference opponent. Flames are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss. Crusaders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Illinois Chicago is 3-0 ATS overall vs Valparaiso since 1997. My main set of power ratings has Illinois Chicago winning outright by 3.16 points. We'll recommend a small play on Illinois Chicago today!
Big Al McMordie
Michigan vs. Northwestern
Play: Northwestern -3.5
At 3 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats minus the points over Michigan. These two teams met earlier this season in Ann Arbor, and John Beilein's Wolves came away with a 68-59 victory, as a 5-point favorite. But since that win, Michigan has won just one of its five games, and has dropped five straight road games overall. Northwestern has played 14 home games this season, and is 11-0 straight-up when not installed as an underdog, and is 0-3 straight-up when installed as the home dog. The Wolverines are an awful 24-51 ATS their last 75 as road underdogs, including 1-11 ATS if U-M defeated its opponent earlier in the season. Take Northwestern.
Cajun Sports
Illinois vs. Indiana U
Play: Illinois -10
Assembly Hall will be the site of today’s Big 10 battle between the host Indiana Hoosiers and the visiting Illinois Illini. Illinois enters off back-to-back wins over Purdue at home 66 to 48 and on the road at Northwestern 60 to 59 on Thursday night. Indiana is coming in off back-to-back losses on the road at Michigan State 75 to 47 and at Minnesota 62 to 54 last Tuesday night.
The Hoosiers will be looking to avenge a 31 point beat down they had put on them by the Illini in Champaign back on January 10th losing 76 to 45 as a 17.5 point road underdog. Although the Illini may be seeking some revenge themselves as Indiana defeated them in both meetings last season. This game like all others will come down to talent and execution and Indiana is certainly shy in the talent department and it’s hard to execute when you lack the players to make the shots.
Indiana is 1-10 SU and 6-5 ATS in conference play this season averaging 60.6 points per game and allowing 71.7 points per game. Illinois is 8-4 SU and 6-5 ATS in conference action this year averaging 61.6 points per game and allowing 57.4 points per game. The Illini are 100-44 ATS when they allow 60 or fewer points in a game since 1997. Indiana is 9-28 ATS when they score between 55 & 60 points and 7-17 ATS when they score 60 or fewer points in a game the last three seasons.
College basketball teams after losing straight up and winning ATS in their last game and are now involved in a game with a line range of 10 to 13.5 points are 346-403-19 ATS. College basketball teams after losing straight up by five or more points and winning against the spread in their last game now a conference home underdog are 172-214-8 ATS. College basketball teams after winning straight up and losing ATS on the road now installed as a conference favorite have posted a record of 87-61 ATS in that role if they have a line range of 10 to 13.5 those teams are 17-6 ATS.
Illinois is 55-36 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread, 22-7 ATS after a close win by 3 points or less, 14-4 ATS off a close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival and 9-1 ATS off a close road win by 3 points or less since 1997. Indiana is 7-16 ATS after 1 or more consecutive ‘unders’ the last 2 seasons, 5-13 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread and 0-10 ATS off 2 or more consecutive road losses since 1997.
With the talent advantage along with solid fundamental and technical support we will back the visitor here as they get the season sweep and cash another ticket for their backers as the Illini roll to an easy win in Bloomington on Sunday afternoon.
Projected Final Score: (2*) Illinois Illini 68 Indiana Hoosiers 52
AC Sports Advisors
East vs. West
Play:West -4.5
We like the west here because the game is in the west and Kobe does not want Lebron to get another mvp. Kobe wants to hook up shaq and Armire to look good and win the game. Coach Mike Brown won't over use Lebron look for the west to put on a show it means more to them.
Dave Cokin
Play: Buffalo -2'
It's been an amazing year for Buffalo. First, they pretty much shocked the college football world by winning the MAC title and going to their first ever bowl game. Now the Bulls are making all kinds of noise in MAC roundball, with a legit shot to claim this crown as well. Buffalo has been exceptional as lightly priced chalk, covering 10 of 12 when laying six or fewer points. Ball State is only 12-23 vs. the spot in lined home games, and the Cardinals are really starting to miss the presence of their injured guard Newell. I like Buffalo to rack up another win and cover.
James Patrick Sports
USC vs. Arizona State
Our selection in Sunday NCAA College Basketball action is the PAC 10 match-up between the Sun Devils and the Trojans to continue the trend of 6 of 7 Over the Total games in Tempe when these teams lock horns. USC cannot stop anybody of late and Arizona State is a machine on this court. Let the scoring begin in Tempe.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Duquesne
When Duquesne plays host to Temple in an Atlantic 10 clash today they will do so knowing the host team in this series is 6-0-1 ATS. With the Dukes 5-2 ATS in their last 7 tires as home dogs, including 2-0 ATS this season, and the Owls off a 2-point decision over crosstown rival St. Joe's, look for Duquesne to improve to 4-0 ATS at home with revenge this season here today.
Jim Feist
USC at ARIZONA STATE
Take: Under
These are two of the top 5 teams in scoring defense in the Pac 10. Arizona State is third allowing 61.7 ppg, while USC is 5th allowing 68.4 ppg. Arizona State is on a 6-1 run under the total. When these teams met last month, USC won a monster defensive game, 61-49. USC shot 41% and won only because they held the Sun Devils to 34% shooting. The Trojans shot 1-for-12 and committed seven turnovers in the first 11 minutes, but the Sun Devils didn't take full advantage, leading just 13-4. Look for another powerful defensive duel, play USC/Arizona State Under the total.
Jimmy The Moose
Montreal Canadiens at Vancouver Canucks
Prediction: Vancouver Canucks
Montreal really struggling right now losing 5 of their last 6 and 7 of their last 10. Doesn't get any better vs Vancouver tonight as the Habs are 0-9-1 last 10 meetings vs the Canucks. Montreal 1-7 last 8 road games. Vancouver after dropping 9 straight have now won 4 of their past 5 and will continue their dominance over Montreal tonight. Play on Vancouver -.
Jeff Benton
For Sunday’s freebie in college basketball, we’ll back Miami, Fla., plus the big number at home against North Carolina.
Let’s start with the fact that this is potentially a big-time letdown spot for North Carolina, which is coming off Wednesday’s impressive 101-87 rout of Duke as a two-point road favorite. It marked the fourth straight year that the Tar Heels had won in Durham, but two of the last three years they pulled off that feat, they followed it up with a non-cover. That includes last year, when the Heels ended the regular season with a 76-68 victory at Cameron Indoor, then six days later opened the ACC Tournament with an 82-70 win over Florida State as a 13½-point chalk.
Furthermore, even though it easily covered at Duke the other night, Carolina is just 4-6 ATS in the ACC this season and has yet to cover in back-to-back conference games. In fact, you have to go back to Dec. 3 – a stretch of 16 games – for the last time UNC covered in consecutive games, and they’re just 6-10 ATS overall in this time.
Today, the Heels face a Miami squad that has lost four of its last five games, but three of those defeats came in overtime (Virginia Tech, N.C. State and at Duke), and the other was a five-point loss at Maryland. And while it’s true that the Hurricanes got drubbed 82-65 when they went to Carolina a month ago, the game was much closer than the final score suggests. Miami was up by nine points late in the first half before the Heels closed on a 13-0 run to take a four-point halftime lead. The Hurricanes were as close as 47-43 in the early stages of the second half before a 21-5 Carolina run put the game out of reach. Even still, Miami did not quit and managed to get the cover as a 17½-point underdog.
As a matter of fact, even though North Carolina is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in this rivalry, it is only 4-3 ATS. Also, it’s interesting to note that the last time the Hurricanes played at home, they annihilated seventh-ranked Wake Forest 79-52 as a 2½-point underdog, and they’re 4-1 ATS as an underdog in ACC play, the only hiccup coming at Maryland as a 1 ½-point pup.
Tonight, Miami is catching nearly double-digits at home! And when you consider that the ‘Canes are averaging 77.2 ppg on 46 percent shooting in their last five games and North Carolina is allowing 78.4 ppg on 44.5 percent shooting in its last five – not to mention giving up 76 or more in four of its five ACC roadies – those big points Vegas is giving us become even more attractive. Play the home underdog.
6♦ MIAMI, FLA.
Matt Rivers
For Sunday take USC plus the points.
I do fully understand that USC is a mediocre at the very best team as OJ Mayo and others left after last season but it's a very solid spot to grab the number with the Trojans.
Arizona State is a very good team and proved it once again the other night by beating UCLA and sweeping the Bruins in the season series. That certainly is impressive and Harden and Pendergraph are no joke but all in all the Sun Devils' offense is anemic at times and after the huge win against UCLA open up a potential letdown spot today.
I have seen Herb Sendek's team routinely play games in the 50's and can see another one here today in this spot. In the end ASU should be too strong and win on the court but the contest should be very tight.
In the first meeting of the season USC took care of business 61-49. Taj Gibson, Daniel Hackett and a few others are quality players and this game is important for USC as it can determine if they can move up to the upper third in the Pac-10 at 7-5 or fall back to the lower third at 6-6. After dropping two straight the Trojans will lay it all on the line today and in another defensive struggle the points could easily equal its weight in gold.
Jake Timlin
A much bigger number than expected I like the Eagles plus the home points as they might just win outright. After all given the Blue Devils struggles right now as they have failed to cover 3 in a row and 4 of their last 5 the last think they should doing is laying this big of a number on the road. Even worst news for Duke is the fact they are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as they roll into today with a bruised ego after losing at home to North Carolina. Meanwhile, for Boston College since beating UNC things have not been good as they have lost their share of games, but due to being 12-4 at home the Eagles are a dangerous team at home and that includes today. So looking for a close game I say take the points as Boston College will challenge Duke today at home.
PICK: Boston College