Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Duquesne +2
These teams have played each other tight each of the past two seasons, with Duquesne beating Temple at home by 4 as an underdog in 2007. Duquesne is 9-3 at home this season and I like the Dukes here against an Owls team that is just playing .500 ball on the road. Home court has definitely been the key in this series as the Home team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. It also bodes well for the Dukes being in a bounce back spot of a loss as they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss. Duquesne plays its best ball against the best. We saw this when the Dukes knocked off Xavier a week ago at home. Duquesne is 11-3 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons. Take the home dog here.
Drew Gordon
Illinois at INDIANA +10
For as bad as you may think the Hoosiers are this season, the Illini have been just as terrible on the road of late, going 1-4 SUATS over their last 5 in hostile territory. They eeked out a win at Northwestern to snap their 4-game slide on the road in their last one, but even that win was by the skin of their teeth. Sorry Illini-backers, but your team is in trouble this afternoon and here's why:
The Hoosiers are starting to "get it." A strong home win and cover over Iowa in their last one at Assembley Hall is a positive sign of things to come. Granted, Iowa is no juggernaut, but the Hawkeyes can play defense, and the Hoosiers torched them for 49% shooting from the field and a blistering 53% from 3-point land! Of course, Indiana didn't look so hot in their next two road games, but fact is, a return home is exactly what this team needs.
On the flip side, we've discussed the Illni's road woes above, but the real key to their problems has been on the offensive end, where they're struggling mightily. Illinois is averaging just 54 ppg on 40% shooting (26% from 3-point) over their last 5 games, and going out on the road (even at 6-17 Indiana) is not going to help them get any better. Illini have proven consistent in their inability to score points on the road, and with Indiana's confidence rising... This is NOT the spot to be laying this many with Illinois.
Take Indiana plus the points over Illinois in this college hoops match up.
3♦ INDIANA
Michael Cannon
North Carolina -8' at MIAMI (FLA)
Take North Carolina minus the points tonight on the road over Miami (Fla).
I know what the consensus thought here is. Aren’t the Tarheels ripe for a letdown here after their big win at archrival Duke on Wednesday?
Sure, that’s a distinct possibility. But I’m more concerned about the Hurricanes’ psyche going into this game than anything.
Miami has lost four of its last five overall, and three have come in overtime. They’ve been off since February 7 so there’s a real chance they’ll come out rusty in this one, and all it takes is a little opportunity and North Carolina can be up by 20 in the blink of an eye.
It’s not like Miami has been competitive in this series lately either. The Hurricanes have lost four straight in this “rivalry”, with the average margin of victory of 21 for the Tarheels.
North Carolina just looks like a team that’s ready to take off and I can easily see them winning this game by 15 or more tonight.
Lay the points with North Carolina on the road as they blowout Miami.
3♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Jrtips
ILLINOIS vs. INDIANA
llinois dropped four straight on the road before a last-minute comeback win in their last game against Northwestern. The 22nd-ranked Fighting Illini face last place Indiana today at Assembly Hall and try to win there for the first time in more than five years.Illinois went more than six weeks without a road win, dropping four Big Ten road games by an average of 13.0 points. Illini (20-5, 8-4) are led by a trio of sophomores, McCamey, 7-foot-1 center Mike Tisdale and forward Mike Davis each starting and averaging more than 10 points. McCamey had a game-high 21 points, six rebounds and five assists against the Wildcats.Illinois also has the top scoring defense in the Big Ten, ranking among the top 10 nationally by allowing 56.6 points per game.The Indiana Hoosiers(6-17, 1-10) sputtering offense, which has averaged 50.5 points in its last two games, both losses and has one win in its last 14 games, including home losses to Northeastern and Lipscomb. The Illini won 76-45 over the Hoosiers on Jan. 10th. Indiana started four freshmen in Tuesday night's 62-54 loss at Minnesota, two days after indefinitely suspending top scorer Devan Dumes for throwing an elbow in the previous game against Michigan State.It's unclear if Dumes will be activated for Sunday's game. The Illini haven't won in Indiana since 2004, but they've still won nine of 13 overall against the Hoosiers. Both of these teams have trouble scoring and even though the Illini is the better team, they will have to win with their Top 10 defense today where they struggle on the road.TAKE UNDER 123
Larry Ness
Drake -1.5 vs Illinois St.
Illinois St opened 14-0 but is since 6-5 SU and 3-8 ATS. Drake, which last year won 28 games on its way to the MVC title (regular season and tourney) and its first NCAA appearance since 1971, also started well but has likewise faded. The Bulldogs lost head coach Keno Davis to Providence plus scorers Houston (14.1) and Korver (10.4), as well as MVC p-o-y Emmenecker (8.6-4.6-6.5). Drake opened 13-3 but has lost SEVEN of nine (all in MVC play), to come in 15-10 (6-8 in the conference). Young (15.8) and Parker (12.0) can score, while the 6-8 Cox (11.8-8.5) is one of the league's best big men but Drake's depth is a question. The 6-5 Templeton (5.8-3.8) is a JUCO transfer and Drake had hoped he'd fill Emmenecker's shoes but that hasn't happened. The 6-8 Heemskerk (3.8-4.4) has also fallen short of expectations. While Illinois St is having the better overall season, the Redbirds are hardly "hitting on all cylinders" these days. Returning guards Eldridge (14.0-6.0) and Holloway (10.1-4.2) have been joined by 6-6 Oregon transfer Oguchi (14.9-5.9) plus JUCO point guard Phillips (11.6-3.5 APG) to form an excellent backcourt. However, Phillips will miss again here (personal reasons) and that hurts. The 6-8 Odiakosa (9.3-7.2) and the 6-8 Sampay (7.1-4.9) are decent inside players but Illinois St was only able to beat Drake 65-61 in Normal (as eight-point favorites) and here in Des Moines, a desperate and proud Drake team should prevail. Take the home team.
GREG SHAKER
Rider Broncs at Manhattan Jaspers
Play: Under 136.5
Playing the Rider Broncs UNDER the Total is always a scary proposition. Afterall, they do possess a tempo that is well within the Top 25% in this land and they do have a combination of good offensive efficiency and less than average defensive efficiency. However, there are some things that I expect to happen in this contest and on this floor which has produced just 122 points per game this year. The Jaspers like to control the tempo here and they have been pretty spiffy at doing so. Other High Octane conference foes have come here and have had to play along with the Jasper style. That is the reason why UNDER is 6-3 this year right here and that is the reason why UNDER is 8-2 last 10 regardless where Manhattan dribbles the ball. They simply cannot afford to get into a free for all shooting match with the visitors and they will work very hard not to do so. This betting line opened at 139 and has quickly come down to it's current level. You can play it down to 134 but I it probably would be smart to play it now.
Nelly
Drake - over Illinois State
Player turnover and the coaching change has certainly taken a toll on Drake, coming off a great season last year that led to an unexpected conference title and a NCAA tournament trip. The Bulldogs have now lost seven of the past nine games but have gone 4-3 at home in Missouri Valley games with two narrow losses also included. Illinois State won by four at home against Drake earlier this season but the Redbirds had a fantastic long-range shooting game with twelve 3-point makes. Illinois State is 2-4 ATS in the past six road games and two road wins came in OT so the Redbirds have been fortunate to squeak by in a few games. Illinois State is 20-5 but they have played the weakest schedule of any team in the MVC still not having played a team in the top 50 of the Sagarin ratings. Following a narrow win at Evansville on Wednesday this is a tough turnaround and a second straight road game that could give Drake an opportunity for an upset. Drake has shown it can deliver high level performances at home.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Miami +8.5
After a highly emotionally and physically draining win at Duke, the Heels fall into a letdown situation on the road today. Miami is 10-3 at home this season and it has not lacked confidence in big games, crushing Wake Forest and losing by just 3 to Duke in OT. That was Wake's last game, and it was over a week ago, so the Canes have had more time than you ever usually get to prepare for one opponent and that will serve them well here. UNC won the first meeting at home, but did not cover the spread and Miami will look like a completely different team in this game. The Tar Heels are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. Atlantic Coast, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. The Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog. Bet Miami here.
Tony Karpinski
Illinois State vs. Drake
Play: Drake -1.5
Illinois state has the better record, but I like DRake in this spot tonight. Drake is 13-4-1 ATS off an ATS loss and they are 10-4-1 ATS vs a team with a winning road record. The Bulldogs are 16-7 ATS vs. teams with a winning percentage of over 60% and they are 8-3 ATS their last 11 games vs. the Redbirds. Illinois St is 3-8 ATS their last 11 Conference games and they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games vs. winning teams.