Drew Gordon
Denver at INDIANA +2
Going to grab whatever points I can with Indiana at home today versus Denver.
In case you haven't noticed, the Pacers are no pushover at Conseco, winners of 12 of their last 14 games at home straight-up. So, let's not get too hasty with the Nuggets in this spot, as they'll be hard-pressed to match the energy of an Indiana team playing great basketball at home.
Speaking of that, the Pacers are 17-11 ATS at home this season, including an impressive win over the mighty Cavaliers in February. Needless to say, if there's one place you DO NOT want to mess with the Pacers it's at Conseco. Denver has been rock-solid at home, but its 17-13 SU & 16-14 ATS record on the road shows some real vulberability on the highway. Recent road losses at Chicago and Milwaukee are tough to overlook.
Both teams clearly love to run-and-gun, but lately, it's been all about the Pacers' offense, averaging 106 ppg over their last 5 games. Denver, meanwhile, has cooled off a bit, averaging just 98 ppg over the same span. Herein lies the problem for the Nuggets, as they are slumping a bit offensively, but their defense remains as suspect as ever, allowing a whopping 107 ppg over their last 5 games.
Finally, despite the absence of Danny Granger, the Pacers have managed to stay competitive, falling to Boston by only 5 points in their last roadie, easily covering as 12-point dogs. Underestimate this Pacers' team at your own risk, as they have depth, and have proven incredibly feisty at home. Thus, play on the home dog in this one and grab the points with the Pacers.
2♦ INDIANA
Karl Garrett
St. Bonaventure +9 at ST. JOSEPH'S
For Sunday, I have to take the points with the visiting Bonnies, as it appears as though the Hawks have lost their way these days.
St. Joe's has lost its last 5 both straight up and against the spread. That includes 3 in a row at the Palestra - their temporary home - where they are a lowly 3-9 against the oddsmakers this year.
St. Bonaventure just whipped up on St. Louis, 72-55 on Wednesday, and is a money-making 9-2 against the spread on the road this season.
The Bonnies have lost 10 in a row straight-up in the series, but it should be noted that the road team is on a 12-4 spread run when these two clash.
Until the G-Man sees evidence that the fading Hawks can actually win a game, I want no parts of them laying any kind of wood to anyone, let alone a team that has covered 9 of 11 on the road this year.
Bonnies are the call.
3♦ ST. BONAVENTURE
Bobby Maxwell
Maryland at N.C. STATE -4'
We scored two FREE winners Satruday with the Orlando Magic and Stanford to make it 21 days of comp winners over the last 35 days. Today we've got a freebie for you on N.C. State as the Wolf Pack host Maryland.
This one should be entertaining as two of the ACC's middle of the road teams meet at N.C. State when Maryland visits the Wolf Pack. Both schools have been playing better, but we expect N.C. State to get this one by about 10 when all is said and done.
The Wolf Pack have won three of their last five and they've cashed in five of their last six. They've had some nice wins at home lately, beating Virginia and Wake Forest and Miami is three of their last four ACC home games. And on Thursday they went to Wake Forest and hung tough the whole way, finally falling 85-78 as 11 1/2-point road 'dogs.
Maryland isn't much on the road, losing three of their last four on the highway and they fell at home on Wednesday 78-67 and failed to cover as six-point home pups.
Maryland has won the last three in this series, including an 84-70 win in Maryland back on Feb. 9, covering as an 8 1/2-point favorite. N.C. State has won two of the last three an its home court in this rivalry.
The Wolf Pack is 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last six ACC contests. Meanwhile, Maryland hasn't had much success on Sundays, going 1-7 ATS in their last eight.
We like the way this Wolf Pack is going right now. Play them at home to pull away late and get the win and cover.
3♦ N.C. STATE
Sports Gambling Hotline
Tennessee at FLORIDA -4'
We scored with another comp play winner on Florida State on Saturday.
Now an 18-6-2 comp play the last 26 days!
We are willing to lay the points in the SEC today, as Tennessee visits the O-Dome for a date with the Florida Gators.
Not that we don't trust Bruce Pearl's team...but we just don't trust them!
Tennessee has lost 3 in a row on the conference road, and they have failed their last 4 against the spread on the SEC highway.
Florida is a perfect 16-0 straight up at home this year, and they do have a score to settle with the Volunteers, as the Vols put a hurting on the Gators, 79-63 on January 31st in Knoxville.
That win made it 4 straight, and 6 of 7 in favor of the Vols, a mark that we feel sure Billy Donovan has been pounding into his players heads this week in practice.
Florida to post a long-overdue series win, and cover.
Play on the Gators.
3♦ FLORIDA
DAVE COKIN
RHODE ISLAND / DUQUESNE
Take RHODE ISLAND
Rhode Island is 21-8 and is actually not very far from being 27-2. But the Rams do not have a ticket to the dance at this point, and simply have to win their last two regular season contests to have any prayer of getting in as an at-large entry. Fact is, URI probably deserves more consideration than they're receiving. Five of the losses are by 4 or fewer points, and that includes wire jobs against Duke, Providence, Oklahoma State and Xavier. They also have a triple OT defeat on their ledger, and have really had just one blowout loss all season. That ought to be good enough, but apparently it's not. URI has a very good recent history on this court and Duquesne is just 1-9 vs. the number coming home off a conference road win. This is a tough game, but I think there's enough there to warrant a lean on Rhode Island.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Pistons/Celtics UNDER 180.5
Both of these teams have been unders machines as they are defensive minded ball clubs. Boston has now gone under in 6 of its last 7 and Detroit has gone under the number in 5 of its last 6. We have come to expect hard-fought, low-scoring battles in this matchup as 13 of 16 games played over the last 3 seasons between these two teams have gone under. The Under is also 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Boston. The Under is 16-6 in the Pistons last 22 road games and 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Under is also 6-0 in Celtics last 6 games as a favorite. Bet the Under.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Cavs/Hawks UNDER 189.5
Cleveland has really been getting after it on the defensive end, holding its opponents to 93 or fewer points in each of its last 4 games. In fact, the Cavs have held 3 of their last 6 opponents to 79 or fewer points. Cleveland is only allowing 90.2 ppg on the season and its superior defense keeps this one under today. Cleveland is 16-5 UNDER in Sunday games over the last 2 seasons, 25-12 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, and 8-2 UNDER in its last 10 against the Eastern Conference. Bet the UNDER.
Rob Vinciletti
Michigan State vs. Illinois
Play: Illinois -1
On Sunday the free pick is on Illinois.Game 866 at 4pm eastern.Illinois is 16-6 vs winning teams,3-1 as a home fav of -3 or less,13-5 vs teams who allow less than 65 per game,5-1 after scoring 60 or less and are 4-1 home with revenge.Michigan.St has struggled as a small road dog going 0-5 su-ats.Look for Illinois to get there revenge today.
Pure Lock
TENNESSEE @ FLORIDA
PLAY: TENNESSEE (+) PTS
Mikey Sports
Marist @ Niagara
Play: Marist (+) pts
R&R Totals
Marquette @ Louisville
Play: OVER THE TOTAL
#1 Sports
Missouri @ Kansas
Missouri (24-4, 11-2 Big 12) The Tigers opened up a 55-32 halftime lead and coasted to a 94-74 victory Wednesday night to post their 7 consecutive victory by forcing 21 turnovers - including 13 steals - by a pretty decent Kansas State squad, revenging an earlier season loss. Full court defense and furious offensive tempo, termed the “Run and Execute” by Nolan Richardson protégé and former UAB Coach Mike Anderson (58-32 in 3rd season at Columbia) and “40 Minutes of Hell” by the more creative, has put the Show back in the Show Me State with huge advantages in points scored (82.6 to 65.4), turnovers forced (19.5 to 12.8), and steals (10.9 to 6.6) this season made possible by big men winning to run and dynamite ball-handling guards. 6’3” junior G JT Tiller (7.8p, 3.3r, 3.6a) and Delaware transfer 6’4” junior G Zaire Taylor (5.3p, 3.0r, 3.5a) may not rack up eye-popping point numbers but between the pair they sport a superb 2.54 assist to turnover ratio while 6’6” freshman G Kim English (6.8p, 1.8r, 1.3a) and 6’7” senior G Matt Lawrence (8.9p, 2.1r, 60 of 145 from 3-point) share the shooting role on the wing. Despite good overall size, rebounding is not a major strength (37.6 per game versus 36.1 for opponents) for Missouri but they do have a couple of fine seniors on the in 6’8” 225 F DeMarre Carroll (17.1p, 7.1r, 2.1a, 185 of 324 from the field) and 6’9” 244 F Leo Lyons (14.3p, 6.0r, 2.0a) that both know how to finish and effectively kick when the shot’s not there. Key to the strategy in Columbia is to simply wear teams out making opponents work the ball up the court every trip and turning them on their heels on the break. This requires great depth and the Tigers have depth to burn with no less than 11 players averaging at least 8 minutes per game. Freshman guards Miguel Paul (3.5p, 1.0r, 1.8a) and Marcus Denmon (7.2p, 2.4r, 1.8a) have each appeared in all 28 games this season as has 6’9” 210 junior F Keith Ramsey (4.1p, 3.3r) while 6’8” 205 freshman F Laurence Bowers opened plenty of eyes Wednesday night when he piled up 16 points and 6 boards in just 15 minutes versus Kansas State. Watch out for the Tigers; this crew is built for tournament play.
Kansas (23-5, 12-1 Big 12) The Jayhawks topped the Griffin-less Sooners Monday night, 87-78 in Norman, with stars Collins (26 points), Aldrich (15 points and 20 boards), and Taylor (26 points) scoring all but 10 of their points in the charge to take over first place in the Big 12 Conference standings. 5’11” junior G Sherron Collins (18.3p, 2.5r, 4.9a) runs an offensive attack that averages 77.4 points per game on team shooting marks of 48.4% from the field and 38.4% from behind the arc plus is a fine shooter himself with 62 makes in 158 attempts from deep with a 81.3% mark from the stripe. 6’11” 245 sophomore C Cole Aldrich (15.0p, 10.7r, 1.0a, conference best 71 blocks) is one of the premier big men in the country and an absolute gorilla (save your Washington Post-esque emails; he’s White!) close the rim with 162 buckets in 264 shots. 6’3” freshman G Tyshawn Taylor (9.7p, 2.3r, 3.0a) is another Kansas star is the making with a good stroke (20 of 58 from 3-point) and willingness to distribute the ball, skills that have earned him Big 12 Rookie of the Week honors three times already this campaign. Collins and Taylor aren’t the only sharp shooters on the roster with 6’3 sophomore backup G Tyrel Reed (6.7p, 1.9r, 1.1a) knocking down 39 of 102 three-pointers while 6’3” sophomore G Brady Morningstar (7.1p, 3.1r, 2.7a) leads the conference at a connection rate of 46.8% (44 of 94) from the arc. Our only question is why isn’t the bomb a bigger part (6.5 makes per contest) of Coach Bill Self’s (165-37 in 6th season at Lawrence) game plan. Hey, Self only has 8 total conference titles to his credit with 3 different teams plus a National Championship to his credit while we have…OK, back to the article. Along with Aldrich on the blocks, Coach Self has a decent freshman pair to achieve this balance. 6’8” 225 F Marcus Morris (7.5p, 4.9r, 1.2a) has cracked to staring lineup while his backup - and twin brother - 6’9” 232 F Markieff Morris (4.9p, 4.4r, 1.1a) are a big part of the future. This group has led Kansas to the top conference rebounding margin (38.9 per game versus 31.2). The Jayhawks have held 67 consecutive opponents to below 50% shooting and are 16-1 at Allen Fieldhouse this season.
SELECTION: The Tigers overcame a 14-point halftime deficit and a 28-48 rebounding disadvantage to top the Defending National Champion Jayhawks 62-60 back on February 9th at Missouri Arena. Missouri’s “40 Minutes of Hell” approach simply wore Bill Self’s crew down into committing 27 turnovers so the play of backup Kansas guards 6’3” sophomore Tyrel Reed (6.7p, 1.9r, 1.1a, 39 of 102 from 3-point) and 6’5” junior Mario Little (4.9p, 3.1r, 1.0a) will be critical to this outcome. At Allen Fieldhouse we’ll give them the nod in the latest edition of The Border Showdown. Take Kansas on Sunday
Tom Freese
Toronto Raptors at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks
Dallas is 7-3 ATS their last 10 home games and they are 4-0 ATS off an ATS loss. The Mavericks are 6-2 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game and they are 8-3 ATS vs. a team that scored 100 or more points in their last game. Toronto is 17-41 ATS when playing with one day of rest and they are 17-35-2 ATS their last 54 games as underdogs. The Raptors are 2-7 ATS off an ATS loss and they are 1-8 ATS after allowing more than 125 points in their last game. PLAY ON DALLAS -
Matt Fargo
North Texas at Denver
Prediction: Denver
Not only did Denver snap its 43-game road losing streak last season, it has now won two straight games away from home following a second consecutive easy victory. This team is brimming with confidence and the Pioneers end their regular season Sunday with a chance to grab a share of second place in the Sun Belt West Division. The Pioneers trail North Texas, South Alabama and Middle Tennessee by just one game, meaning they could finish anywhere from 4th to 7th in the upcoming SBC Tournament. They are already locked in to host a first round game but I highly doubt that they are satisfied with just that. This is a rather big revenge game for Denver who lost by seven points in Denton back in January. North Texas overcame a 21-point deficit to win that game and losing teams simply do not forget when that takes place. Denver is 11-2 at home this year with both losses coming in overtime. Since head coach Joe Scott took over as head coach prior to the 2007-08 season, the Pioneers are 20-5 at Magness Arena and it is one of those places that teams do not like playing at. The altitude alone is an issue but this is the longest road trip for teams out of the SBC as well. North Texas holds an 11-8 advantage in the all-time series, but Denver has a 6-3 edge at home, including five of the last six meetings. Something will have to give in this one as the Mean Green are second in the SBC in scoring offense with 77.2 ppg, while the Pioneers are first in scoring defense, allowing opponents only 60.1 ppg. Denver held UL-Monroe to just 28.6 percent shooting on Thursday, marking the lowest field goal percentage by a Denver opponent this season. Based on that and the fact that the Pioneers are returning home, the defense gets the call in the head-to-head matchup. I love the momentum right now and Denver has a go-to player in Nate Rohnert, a spate of emerging freshmen and burgeoning confidence. This is a tough team to prepare for as the Princeton style offense that the Pioneers employ is never an easy one to get ready for. Denver is 11-2 ATS revenging a loss this season and it is 6-0 ATS following two straight games where it allowed 60 points or fewer. 3* Denver Pioneers
Stephen Nover
DAL / TOR Over 207.5
The Raptors have picked up their tempo since trading Jermaine O'Neal, a low-post player, for racehorse Shawn Marion.Marion is at his best in the open court and the Raptors are trying to accommodate him as the team gets more adjusted to him. This is reflected in their past three games. Toronto has scored 113, 118 and 111 points. The Raptors, however, have also allowed an average of 117.5 points in their last four games.Expect a strong game from Chris Bosh, who is from Dallas. The Mavericks should get big games from Dirk Nowitzki, averaging 23.9 points in his last nine games, and Josh Howard, who is averaging 20.7 points in his past six games.Dallas has scored at least 110 points in three of its past four games. The Raptors rank 20th in defense and defensive field goal percentage.Toronto and Dallas also are the two best free throw shooting teams in the NBA.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Providence -3 over RUTGERS
The Friars are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite, while the Scarlet Knights are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. If Depaul wasn't in the league then the Knights would be considered the worst that the Big East has to offer. Rutgers is just 1-14 in conference play and yep you guessed it, that lone win was vs Depaul. The Knights have lost 6 in a row since that win over Depaul and they have been outscored by 9.7 ppg in the 6 games. Overall this sorry Rutgers team has been outscored by 9.5 ppg in league play. Providence comes in winners of 3 of their last 5, including a big win over #1 Pittsburgh their last time out. Don't expect a let down from that game either as they are fighting for a Tournament berth. Both defenses have been bad of late, but Providence comes in averaging 79.2 ppg ion their last 5, while the Knights have averaged just 64.2 ppg over their last 5 and that to me means that the Friars are more equipped to score on a bad defense than the Knights are. Providence has won the last 5 in the series, by an average of 15.6 ppg and with the way their offense is clicking right now, i can easily see them winning this one by double digits.
2 UNIT PLAY
Louisville/ Marquette Over 144
The Over is 6-1 in Golden Eagles last 7 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 and 44-18-2 in Golden Eagles last 64 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, while the Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games following a ATS win. Both these teams have been scoring a ton of points lately, as the Wariors have averaged 79.2 ppg in their last 5 games, while the Cardinals have averaged 85.3 ppg in their last 4 games. Overall Marquette has the 10th ranked scoring offense as they average 80 ppg on the year, while the Cardinals come in ranked 71st in scoring at 74.2 ppg. On defense louisville is ranked 32nd in scoring allowing just 61.6 ppg overall, but they have slipped a bit of late as they have allowed 68.2 ppg in their last 5 games. Marquette has had their problems on defense this year as they have allowed 69 ppg overall (209th) and 78.6 ppg in their last 5 games. Louisville home games have averaged just 139.4 ppg overall, but their last 2 at home have put up 161.5 ppg, while their last 5 overall have averaged 147.8 ppg. Marquetts road games have averaged 148 ppg, while their last 5 overall have put up 157.8 ppg. These two teams should look to run today and that has me seeing a game in the mid to upper 150's.
1 UNIT PLAYS
FLORIDA -4.5 over Tennessee
Tennessee has struggled on the road lately losing this last 3 and by an average of 12 ppg. The Gators have been playing very well at home this year as they are 6-0 in SEC home games and have outscored their opponents by 13 ppg. Florida gets payback for an earlier 16 points loss at the hands of the Vols.
Michigan/ Wisconsin Under 126
NBA
2 UNIT PLAY
Boston/ Detroit Under 180
VEGAS EXPERTS
Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are just awesome as a home underdog, covering 23 of their 32 times in that situation. Playing with no rest, then travelling to face Golden State is no small task. They have too much offense, averaging 114 points per game at home this season and beat Utah here by 20, 116-96, a little more than three weeks ago. Furthermore, Utah is just 10-22 ATS on the road when playing on back-to-back days and 3-13 ATS on the road off a home SU win where they failed to cash. Take the points.
Play on: Golden State