SPORTS ADVISORS
(7) Duke (25-5, 14-14-1 ATS) at (2) North Carolina (26-3, 11-16 ATS)
Duke takes a five-game winning streak (3-2 ATS) down the road to Chapel Hill looking to avoid getting swept by its archrivals and hoping to grab a share of the ACC title. On Tuesday, the Blue Devils barely edged Florida State 84-81, falling way short as a 12½-point home favorite, ending a 3-0 ATS run. Duke’s offense has sprung to life lately, scoring 72 points or more in eight straight games since a demoralizing 74-47 loss at Clemson.
North Carolina outlasted Virginia Tech 86-78 on Wednesday, but failed to cover as a 9½-point road favorite. The Tar Heels, who will clinch the outright league title with a victory today, have won two in a row and 12 of their last 13, but they’ve been a betting disaster of late, cashing just seven times in their last 21 games, going 3-8 ATS at home during this stretch.
The Tar Heels sit alone atop the ACC standings at 12-3 (5-10 ATS), one game clear of Duke (11-4, 7-8 ATS). UNC is 6-1 in conference home games but just 2-5 ATS, while the Blue Devils are 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS on the highway, though they have won and covered in their last two conference roadies.
North Carolina rallied from an eight-point halftime deficit at Duke on Feb. 11, outscoring the Blue Devils 57-35 in the second half en route to a 101-87 victory as a two-point road chalk. The Tar Heels have taken control of this storied rivalry in recent years, winning five of the last six meetings and cashing in six of the last seven, but last year Duke went to the Dean Dome and scored an 89-78 victory as a 4½-point road underdog.
Also in this series, the ‘dog is on a 12-4 ATS roll and the visitor is 6-1 (5-2 ATS) in the last seven. Finally, from 2004-07, these rivals played seven games decided by a total of 27 points. However, the last three meetings had victory margins of 14, 11, eight and 14 points.
The Tar Heels’ ATS slumps of 1-4 overall, 3-8 at home and 0-4 on Sunday are offset by pointspread streaks of 7-3 after a non-cover and 13-5 at home against teams with a winning road record. Duke is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 against opponents whose winning percentage is greater than .600 and 1-4 ATS in its last five after a non-cover.
The over is 6-1 in the last seven Duke-Carolina clashes and 6-1 in the last seven tussles in Chapel Hill. Additionally, the Tar Heels are on “over” streaks of 4-0 overall (all in the ACC), 4-1 at home, 6-1 against winning teams, 8-2 after a SU win, 21-8 after a non-cover and 13-4 on Sunday. Duke is on “over” stretches of 6-2 overall, 5-0 after a non-cover and 6-1 against winning teams, but otherwise the Blue Devils sport “under” trends of 6-2 on the road, 14-5 in ACC play, 11-4 after a victory and 11-5 on Sunday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER
(19) Purdue (22-8, 12-14 ATS) at (8) Michigan State (24-5, 14-11-1 ATS)
Michigan State, which has already clinched the outright Big Ten regular-season title, is riding a four-game winning streak and is 7-1 in its last eight (5-3 ATS). The Spartans wrapped up their first outright league crown this decade with Tuesday’s 64-59 win at Indiana, falling way short as a 14-point road chalk. Tom Izzo’s team has scored 64 points or fewer in five of its last six outings and has alternated ATS wins and losses during this six-game stretch.
Purdue is coming off Wednesday’s shocking 64-61 home loss to Northwestern as a 12½-point home favorite. The Boilermakers have followed up a four-game winning streak by losing two of their last three, and they’re mired in a 3-6 ATS funk, including four consecutive non-covers on the road (1-3 SU).
The Spartans sport a 14-3 Big Ten record (9-7-1 ATS), including 6-2 in East Lansing (3-5 ATS). Purdue is in second place at 11-6 (8-9 ATS), including 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS as a Big Ten visitor.
The Boilermakers were the last team to defeat Michigan State, rolling to a 72-54 home win as a four-point favorite on Feb. 17. Purdue has won the last two meetings and is 5-0 ATS in the last five. The host has won the last five regular-season meetings and is 8-1 in the last nine (6-3 ATS). Also, the favorite has cashed in 10 of the last 13 series clashes.
Although they’ve failed to cover in six of nine overall and four straight on the road, the Boilermakers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 after a SU win and 5-2 ATS in their last seven after a non-cover. The Spartans have cashed in four straight after an ATS setback and four of five on Sunday, and they’re 8-2-1 ATS as a single-digit favorite.
The under is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in this rivalry and 5-1 in the last six in East Lansing. Additionally, Michigan State is on “under” streaks of 7-1 overall (all in the Big Ten), 4-0 at home and 5-1 after a SU win, while Purdue carries “under” trends of 4-1 on Saturday, 12-2 against winning teams and 4-0 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN STATE and UNDER
Northwestern (17-11, 12-11-1 ATS) at Ohio State (19-9, 14-10 ATS)
Northwestern has boosted its hopes for the school’s first-ever NCAA Tournament berth by winning three straight games, including Wednesday’s stunning 64-61 upset of No. 19 Purdue as a 12½-point road underdog. The Wildcats’ winning streak comes on the heels of a 1-4 SU slump, but they’ve alternated spread-covers in their last 10 lined games (all in the Big Ten).
Ohio State put the brakes on a 1-4 slump by edging Iowa 60-58 Tuesday, barely covering as a one-point road favorite. The Buckeyes have followed a five-game ATS winning streak by going just 2-3 ATS in their last five
The Wildcats are 8-9 SU and ATS in conference, including 3-5 SU and ATS on the road. Ohio State is 9-8 in the Big Ten (10-7 ATS), but just 3-6 as a visitor (5-4 ATS).
Northwestern ended an 11-game losing skid to Ohio State with a last-second 72-69 victory as a one-point home underdog back on Feb. 18, with freshman John Shurna hitting the game-winning three-pointer with 3.3 seconds to play. The ‘Cats have cashed in five of the last seven head-to-head clashes, going 2-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Columbus.
The Wildcats are on ATS runs of 5-2 on Sunday and 7-4 against winning teams, while the Buckeyes are on pointspread upticks of 7-3 overall (all in league action), 4-1 at home, 4-1 after a SU win and 11-4 after a spread-cover. However, Ohio State has failed to cover in six of its last seven on Sunday, and Northwestern is 2-7 ATS as a single-digit underdog this season.
The over is 12-4 in Northwestern’s last 16 games (all in the Big Ten) and 5-2 in its last seven on the road, while Ohio State has topped the total in six of its last eight in Columbus. Conversely, the under is on stretches of 6-3-1 for Northwestern on Sunday, 7-2 for Northwestern versus winning teams, 15-5 for Ohio State on Sunday and 7-3 for Ohio State after a spread-cover. Finally, seven of the last eight series clashes in this rivalry have stayed below the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(18) Clemson (23-6, 12-11-1 ATS) at (10) Wake Forest (23-5, 14-10 ATS)
Wake Forest has won three in a row, five of its last six and six of its last eight, most recently knocking off Maryland 65-63 as a 1½-point road favorite on Tuesday. Despite that spread-cover, the Demon Deacons have split the cash in their last 12 games. However, they have won five straight home games (4-1 ATS), all against ACC foes.
Clemson ended a two-game SU and ATS slide with Tuesday’s 75-57 rout of Virginia, covering as a 14½-point home favorite. The Tigers have split their last eight games both SU and ATS, going 2-2 SU and ATS on the road.
The Demon Deacons started the season 16-0, including three straight wins and covers to begin the ACC campaign. However, they are now 10-5 in conference (9-6 ATS) and in sole possession of third place in the league standings, one game ahead of Clemson (9-6, 9-5-1 ATS) and Florida State. Wake Forest is 14-1 at home (8-3 ATS in lined contests), including 7-1 hosting ACC foes (5-2 ATS), while the Tigers are 4-3 SU and ATS in ACC roadies.
The winner is 14-0-1 ATS in Clemson’s 15 conference games and 14-1 ATS in Wake’s ACC contests. In fact, the winner has covered in 16 of the Deacons’ last 17 games.
Wake Forest handed the Tigers their first loss of the season back on Jan. 17, rolling to a 78-68 road win as a 2½-point underdog, a result that ended the home team’s 4-0 SU run in this rivalry. The Demon Deacons have covered in seven consecutive meetings with Clemson, and they’ve won four straight at home, covering in the last two. Finally, the visitor is on an 8-2 ATS roll in this series, and the ‘dog has cashed in four of the last five.
The Tigers are 3-0 ATS as a single-digit underdog.
Clemson is on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 8-1 on the road, 5-1 on Sunday and 4-1 against winning teams. Likewise, the Demon Deacons have topped the total in six of eight overall, four straight at home and six of seven on Sunday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST and OVER
MISSOURI VALLEY TOURNAMENT
(at St. Louis, Mo.)
Northern Iowa (22-10, 15-13 ATS) vs. Illinois State (24-8, 16-12 ATS)
Illinois State advanced to its second straight Missouri Valley Conference tournament title game by crushing Creighton 73-49 as a three-point underdog Saturday, one day after dominating Evansville 78-68 as a 4½-point chalk at the Scotttrade Center. The Redbirds, who had closed the regular season on a three-game losing skid, are on a 6-2 ATS roll (3-0 ATS in the last three).
Northern Iowa advanced to the conference championship game for the first time since 2004 by pounding Bradley 76-62 as a 1½-point chalk Saturday. The top-seeded Panthers, who beat Indiana State 73-69 as a 6½-point favorite Friday, have followed up a 1-4 SU slump by winning four in a row, and they’re on a 4-1 ATS roll.
Northern Iowa swept the regular-season series with a pair of narrow victories, winning 59-55 as a 2½-point home favorite and 69-67 in overtime as a 6½-point road underdog last Saturday. The Panthers are 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three regular-season meetings, but the Redbirds eliminated Northern Iowa in the second round of last year’s conference tourney 56-42 as a 4½-point favorite.
In last year’s Missouri Valley Conference championship game, Illinois State got crushed by Drake 79-49 as a 2½-point underdog.
Illinois State is on ATS runs of 6-2 overall and 6-1 in the Missouri Valley, but it is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 neutral-site games, 1-4 ATS in its last five as an underdog and 3-6 ATS in its last nine against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Northern Iowa is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 in road/neutral-site games.
The under is 9-3 in Illinois State’s last 12 neutral-site contests, 5-1 in its last five as an underdog at neutral sites and 8-2 in its last 10 after a SU win, but otherwise the Redbirds are on “over” streaks of 4-2 overall and 4-1 in conference. Also, Northern Iowa has topped the total in five straight games and eight of its last nine.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Orlando (45-16, 38-22-1 ATS) at Boston (49-14, 34-29 ATS)
Orlando takes a three-game winning streak to TD Banknorth Garden in Boston for a key Eastern Conference clash with the Celtics.
The Magic struggled to knock off New Jersey on Friday, prevailing 105-102 but coming up short as a 9 ½-point home favorite, marking just the ninth time in 61 contests that the winner failed to cover the spread in an Orlando game. The Magic, who have scored 105, 106 and 111 points during their three-game run, are shooting for their first four-game winning streak since winning seven in a row from early to mid January. They’re 12-8 SU since that streak.
The Celtics shot down LeBron James and the Cavaliers 105-94 as a 1½-point home favorite on Friday, moving to 20-5 SU in their last 25 games. However, despite halting a four-game ATS slide, Boston is still just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 contests, including 1-5 ATS at home. Doc Rivers’ team has been scoring in bunches lately, averaging 108.1 ppg in its last seven.
The Magic have been solid on the highway this year, going 21-9 SU and 20-9-1 ATS, but they got clobbered in their first visit to Beantown, losing 107-88 as an 8½-point underdog on Dec. 1. The Celtics have won 26 of 31 home games, but are a mediocre 17-14 ATS.
Seven weeks after posting a 19-point home win over the Magic, Boston went to Orlando and cruised to a 90-80 victory as a 4½-point underdog. That ended a seven-game winning streak by the home team in this rivalry (6-1 ATS). Boston has covered in five of the last seven meetings, going 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three at home, and the defending champs are 13-3 ATS the last 16 times they hosted Orlando. Finally, the home team has gotten the money in 21 of the last 28 clashes.
Orlando has failed to cover in seven of its last nine after an outright win, but otherwise the Magic enjoy nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 28-13 overall, 55-26-3 on the road, 55-27-3 as an underdog, 42-16-1 as a pup of less than five points, 45-17-1 after a non-cover, 16-6 against winning teams, 4-0 on Sunday and 40-13 after allowing 100 points in the previous game.
The Celtics are in pointspread droughts of 1-5 at home, 1-7 when playing on one day of rest and 3-7 after a SU victory. However, they’re on ATS rolls of 8-1 when coming off a double-digit win, 5-1 as a favorite of less than five points, 9-4 after a spread-cover and 17-8 on Sunday.
The over has cashed in four of the last five meetings in Boston. Also, the over is on runs of 5-2 for the Magic overall, 4-1 for the Magic on the road, 7-3 for the Magic as an underdog, 4-1 for the Magic on Sunday, 5-1 for the Magic versus the Eastern Conference, 13-3 for Boston at home, 5-0 for Boston on Sunday, 5-1 for Boston against Eastern Conference foes and 6-2 for Boston when playing on one day of rest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Phoenix (34-28, 24-35-2 ATS) at San Antonio (41-20, 31-28-2)
The Suns hope to salvage a disappointing four-game road trip with a win at the AT&T Center when they face the Spurs for the fourth and final time this season.
After beginning the trip with losses at Orlando and Miami on back-to-back nights, Phoenix went to Houston on Friday and fell short 116-112, but it did cover as a 5½-point underdog after failing to cash in Orlando and Miami. The three-game hiccup comes after a 6-2 SU and ATS run, but the Suns have now dropped four straight road games (1-3 ATS) and seven of nine on the highway (3-6 ATS).
The Spurs are coming off Friday’s 100-78 rout of Washington, covering as a 12½-point home favorite to end a 1-3 SU and ATS slump. San Antonio, which has played just five home games in its last 19 contests, is on a 19-4 SU run at the AT&T Center, going 4-1 ATS in the last five.
Despite Friday’s result in Houston, the SU winner is still 24-1-2 ATS in the Suns’ last 27 games, including 14-1-1 ATS in the last 15 on the highway. Also, the winner has covered in each of San Antonio’s last 13 games and is 17-1-1 ATS in the last 19 (5-0 ATS at home). Finally, the winner is on an 8-1-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.
The road team has won all three meetings in this rivalry. Phoenix took the first one 103-98 in a pick-em contest at San Antonio in the season-opener for both teams, but the Spurs won the last two in the desert 91-90 as a 2½-point underdog and 114-104 as a 1½-point pup. The ‘dog is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 clashes (playoffs included), and Phoenix is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six trips to San Antonio.
The Suns are in ATS declines of 2-5 on the highway, 3-7 versus the Southwest Division, 9-20 against teams with a winning record 1-5 as a road underdog, 2-8-1 as a pup of 5 to 10½ points, but they have covered in five of their last six against the Western Conference.
The Spurs have failed to cash in four of their last five on Sunday and are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 when coming off a double-digit win. However, San Antonio is on positive pointspread stretches of 12-5-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-0 as a chalk, 8-2-1 against the Pacific division, 7-2-1 against the Western Conference, 8-3-1 versus teams with a winning record and 7-3-1 when playing on one day of rest.
The over for Phoenix is on runs of 9-3 overall, 5-1 on the road, 5-1 against the Western Conference, 8-3 versus the Southwest Division, 18-6 as an underdog and 5-2 on Sunday. Similarly, the Spurs are on “over” tears of 9-4 at home, 8-2 against the Western Conference, 4-1 on Sunday and 8-3-1 when playing on one day of rest. Also, five of the last eight series meetings between these rivals have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO and OVER
Cajun Sports
Miami Ohio vs. Buffalo
Play: Buffalo -3
Alumni Arena in Buffalo New York will be the site of today’s Mid-American Conference clash between the host Buffalo Bulls and the visiting Redhawks from Miami-Ohio University. Both teams enter today’s contest off of overtime affairs in their previous games. The Redhawks won their OT game at home over Bowling Green 50 to 45 but failed to cover as a 6.5 point home favorite. In that game four of five Redhawks starters logged more than 35 minutes of playing time due to lack of support from their bench. The Hawks shot 18 of 54 and Bowling Green shot 19 of 51 from the floor. Poor shooting and no bench have continued to be a problem for this Miami-Ohio team. The Bulls lost their OT game on the road at Kent State falling 77 to 71. This game came on the heels of a huge win for the Bulls at Ohio University a place they had not won in their last eleven trips. That win over Ohio also broke a four-game losing skid with such an emotional win it’s no surprise they fell to Kent State on the road in their next game. Because Buffalo has more depth their OT game was not as taxing on their starting five as they only had two starters that logged more than 37 minutes. This could be a deciding factor because the Bulls have an advantage when it comes to their bench and the Redhawks may suffer from tired legs during the second half of today’s game. Buffalo will push the ball on offense and they have become more physical on the defensive end of the floor over their last eight games allowing their opponents to average only 58.6 points per game over that span. The Bulls won the first meeting between these two teams back in January 76 to 64 as an 8 point road underdog shooting 25 of 50 from the field while the host only managed to shoot 19 of 49. We do not expect the Redhawks to shoot any better on the Bulls floor today and tired legs often leads to missed shots something that will once again be the downfall of this Miami-Ohio team. On the technical front we know that Buffalo is 10-2 ATS after losing their last game and now installed as a favorite of 3 to 6.5 points. If they also lost ATS in their last game and now a home favorite they are 8-1 ATS and if facing a conference opponent their record improves to a perfect 6-0 ATS. Miami-Ohio coming off a home win and now facing a division foe with a line range of 3 to 6.5 points are 5-15-1 ATS if they are on the road their record is 1-14 ATS, if they are a road underdog 1-11 ATS and if the won SU but lost ATS in their last game they are 0-6 ATS. Lay the short price with the Bulls as they sweep the regular-season series and cash the winning ticket for us in the process.
Graded Selection: 2* Buffalo Bulls 70 Miami-Ohio Redhawks 61
Craig Trapp
Duke vs. North Carolina
Play: Duke +8.5
Always an exciting end to a season with the rivalry match up and much more on the line than NCAA tourney seeding. These two teams really want to be able to have bragging rights during the summer. UNC won by double digits earlier this year at Duke. Since then Duke has struggled to find there identity and have put Schyers at PG to lead the team. UNC has had a couple of bad losses this year where they were not motivated on the defensive end. Not sure motivation will be a problem this game.
Neither of these teams are good ATS with UNC down right horrible 11-16 (4-9 at home) and Duke is 14-14 ATS (7-6 on the road). Recent betting trends:
Tar Heels are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Blue Devils are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Revenge and rivalry always makes me take extra hard look at the underdog. UNC has already locked up the league title and in all likelihood a #1 seed for the big dance. Duke on the other hand has played very well lately and are pushing hard to improve seeding for the big dance. Also they would love to get revenge against rival UNC and keep up the momentum for the ACC tourney.
Sometimes you just have to go with your gut feeling and this is definitely one of those cases. Duke keeps it close and has a shot to win it late. SCORE DUKE 81 - UNC 80
James Patrick Sports
Duke vs. North Carolina
The Blue Devils have revenge from a home loss and whenever Coach "K" is installed as an underdog were on it. Our Sunday complimentary selection in an ACC Tobacco Road Blockbuster is Duke Blue Devils in College Basketball action.
Dave Cokin
Florida Int'l vs. Western Kentucky
Play: Western Ky -9
The Sun Belt Conference is substantially down this season and will get just one bid to the NCAA Tournament. The best team in the league is Western Kentucky, and the Hilltoppers are playing their best ball of the season right now. Florida International upset Western Ky earlier in the season when the Hilltoppers were struggling with a mostly new lineup. But the rematch wasn't nearly as close as the 79-66 margin might indicate, and I see a similar result here. The lean is to Western Kentucky in a game the Hilltoppers should dominate.
Brian Hansen
Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Sacramento Kings
Most are looking for a rout by Denver in this game but I look for the Kings to take this to the wire and possibly earn the upset win. Denver has struggled on the road of late losing their last five games. This is just too many points to be laying on the road versus a Sacramento team that has won 17 of their last 20 home meetings against the Nuggets. Denver has struggled going 1-4 ATS their last five games when listed as a favorite. Look for the Kings to keep this one close as they cover the generous number. Play on Sacramento!
Marc Lawrence
Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics M
Prediction: Orlando Magic
The Celtics proved their vulnerability on this court when they dropped a 10-point decision as 10-point favorites here eight days ago. In fact, heading into Friday's showdown with the Cavs that loss marked their 5th straight pointspread loss at the Garden. The weight of being defending champions cans he heavy at times and especially against quality opposition. The Magic enters as the best underdog in the NBA this season (10-2 ATS at press time). They are also 4-2 SU and ATS in this series when playing with same season double revenge. The bottom line is there are simply too many good numbers to pass with a good team playing in their ideal role (Orlando) against a team off a huge, emotionall revenge win. And we won't.
Jeff Benton
For Sunday’s free play, we’ll head to Tobacco Road for the big Duke-North Carolina showdown and take the points with the visiting Blue Devils.
Simply put, the Tar Heels may be the most talented team in the country – scratch that: they definitely have the most talent in the country – but they’ve been a mess at the betting window. And when I say “mess,” I’m talking 7-14 ATS in their last 21 games, including 1-4 ATS in their last five overall, 5-10 ATS in ACC play and 2-5 in ACC home games.
So how can you not take nearly double digits with Duke, which is 25-5 on the season and is playing its best basketball right now, winning five in a row. Moreover, how can you not take these points when North Carolina continues to refuse to play defense (80 ppg allowed in their last four) while the Blue Devils are averaging 81.7 ppg in their last seven games?
Yes, North Carolina throttled Duke in Durham last month, winning 101-87 thanks to an incredible second half when the Heels outscored the Blue Devils by 22 points. However, the key Tar Heel in that game was point guard Ty Lawson, who had a game-high 25 points. Well, Lawson is questionable with a toe injury suffered in Friday’s practice and he didn’t participate in Saturday’s drills. A less-than-100-percent Lawson is a big edge for Duke.
Lastly, even though Carolina cashed easily as a two-point road favorite at Duke on Feb. 11, the underdog is still on an impressive 12-4 ATS run in this rivalry. That includes Duke’s 89-78 win in Chapel Hill as a 4½-point pup last year – a game, by the way, that Lawson missed with an injury. Do I see another upset by the Blue Devils, who have won two of their last three at the Dean Dome? I wouldn’t be stunned, that’s for sure. At the very least, I see a competitive game and Duke absolutely can hang within this number.
5♦ DUKE
Matt Rivers
For Sunday take Northwestern at Ohio State.
In what should be an ugly low scoring game I am all about the Wildcats and the points here. This Northwestern team is not great by any means but they hang in games with the best of them and just shocked Purdue on the road as an even bigger dog than this. Bill Carmody's team is not at all a doormat anymore and at 17-11 overall and 8-9 in the Big Ten we are looking at a group that can compete here and almost anywhere these days.
Kevin Coble is a semi stud and Craig Moore and Michael Thompson should be able to at the very worst hold their own as well. This team not only just won in West Lafayette but also come in winners of three straight and four of five including downing this same Ohio State squad as well as Iowa and Indiana, not exactly two powerhouses but still decent enough wins.
The days of Greg Oden and Mike Conley, Jr. and Daequan Cook are long gone and these Buckeyes are alright but nothing more. They started out great this season and then the injury to David Lighty took effect and we are looking now at a capable squad, capable.
Thad Matta is a quality coach with some quality players led by a stud in Evan Turner but the Bucs have dropped four of their last six and are giving a bit much today against an up and coming and dangerous Northwestern group!
Bobby Maxwell
Duke +8' at NORTH CAROLINA
We've given you FREE winners 24 of the last 42 days and we did it again for you on Saturday when Kansas got the win and cover over Texas. Tonight we've got a comp winner coming on Duke as the rivalry is renewed with North Carolina.
The Battle for Tobacco Road has its second meeting of the season and you know Duke has been looking forward to this one since that ugly Feb. 11 loss when the Tar Heels rallied for a 101-87 win at Duke as two-point road favorites.
The Blue Devils led by eight points at halftime and then proceeded to get outscored 57-35 in the second half as the Tar Heels just shredded that normally tough Duke defense. But tonight we expect this one to be a classic and come down to the final minutes before it's decided. That's why we'll gladly take the points with the Dukies.
Duke is on a five-game winning streak and they are 3-1 ATS in the last four and the Blue Devils have been getting it done on offense with 72 points or more in eight straight games.
North Carolina failed to cover Wednesday when they beat Virginia Tech 86-78 as 9 1/2-point favorites. This team hasn't been able to cover the inflated numbers the oddsmakers are putting on them, cashing just seven of their last 21 games and going 3-8 ATS at home during this time period.
The Tar Heels are just 2-5 ATS at home in ACC action and remember what Duke did to them last year inside the Dean Dome, getting an 89-78 outright victory as 4 1/2-point road pups.
In this series the underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 and the visitor is 6-1 ATS in the last seven. That leads us to grab the points and back Duke tonight!
3♦ DUKE
JIM FEIST
DENVER NUGGETS at SACRAMENTO KINGS
Take: DENVER NUGGETS
Reason: Denver is desperate! The Nuggets' Northwest Division is shrinking, off another frustrating loss at Utah. They still have the lead. But that is now a half-game in a division race that has an increasingly negative feeling of finality to it. The Utah Jazz beat the Nuggets 97-91 Friday. The Nuggets built a 19-point first-half lead before losing. Now they face a defenseless Sacramento team going nowhere, losing 11 of 13 games. They've also had 4 days off. Denver has won both meetings this season, 118-99 and 118-85, and will have little trouble rolling as they need a BIG win. Play Denver.
Jimmy The Moose
Colorado Avalanche at Chicago Blackhawks
Prediction: Over
The Avalanche's last played on March 4th and in their last 10 games played with 3 days of rest or more between action the over is 8-2. Colorado has played over the total in 4 of their last 5 road games. The over is 4-1 in Chicago's last 5 games played vs. a team with a losing record. Chicago plasyed on Saturday and in theur last 13 games played with 0 day rest between games the over is 9-4. Expect a high-scoring game this afternoon. Play the over.
Stephen Nover
Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics
PICK: Orlando Magic
Can Boston defeat Cleveland and Orlando without Kevin Garnett?
I'm willing to take this many points with the Magic to answer no.
Orlando has been one of the best road spread clubs going 25-10-1 against the spread (ATS) as a road 'dog, 11-5 ATS as a road 'dog versus foes with a winning home mark and 20-9-1 ATS on the road this season.
Despite the fourth-best record in the NBA, the Magic still are fighting the perception they are a soft team because they've yet to beat physical clubs Boston and Detroit.
The Magic will be going all out to prove that perception is wrong on the nationally televised stage.
Boston has the No. 2 defense in the league, but is without its top defender, Garnett. The Magic rank ninth in defense and third in defensive field goal percentage.
The Celtics got up for their Friday win at Cleveland. But let's not forget that is their only cover in their last five games.
This is a one-unit play for me.
Jake Timlin
In a matchup of a pair of top 25 teams I like Wake Forest at home minus the chalk. After all thanks to the Demon Deacons playing at home where they are 14-1 straight up it’s not that tough to lay the points here. Not when Wake Forest has covered the past 7 series meeting, including a 10 outright win at Clemson this season. Meanwhile, for Clemson despite their solid record they are struggling after losing 2 of their last 3 games overall and on the road. Flat out, given how good Wake Forest has been at home this season mixed in with the fact they are going for the season sweep I look for the Demon Deacons to send out their seniors in grand style. All Wake Forest as they post another double digit victory over the Tigers!
PICK: Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
Kiss your damn sister. We take the push yesterday as Washington can’t do enough to get the win over Washington State.
That’s fine because we’re breaking through and getting a win tonight as we’re taking Wake Forest at home against visiting Clemson.
The Demon Deacons come into tonight’s game on a roll, having won five of their last six games SU and having covered in four of those in that stretch, including covers in each of their last two games.
The Demon Deacons now get to battle a Clemson team that has covered only once in its last three games and is on a seven-game ATS losing streak against Wake Forest.
Going back a little further, over their last 10 games the Demon Deacons are 8-2 SU and ATS against the Tigers.
Also, Wake has covered in four of its last five games when installed as a favorite and has covered in 11 of its last 12 home games against teams with a winning road record.
The Demon Deacons will continue their winning ways against the Tigers and make it eight straight covers against Clemson.
3♦ WAKE FOREST