SPORTS ADVISORS
ACC TOURNAMENT
(at Atlanta)
(22) Florida State (25-8, 18-8-1 ATS) vs. (9) Duke (26-6, 15-15-1 ATS)
Florida State advanced to its first ever ACC tournament championship game by upsetting top-seeded and No. 1-ranked North Carolina 73-70 as a nine-point underdog at the Georgia Dome on Saturday. Toney Douglas had a game-high 27 points for the Seminoles, who shot 49 percent from the field and held the Tar Heels to 37.3 percent. Florida State snapped an 11-game losing skid to North Carolina and ended the Tar Heels’ two-year reign as tournament champs.
One day after barely staving off elimination with a 66-65 quarterfinals victory over Boston College as a 10-point chalk, Duke knocked out Maryland on Saturday, prevailing 67-61 but once again coming up short against the number, this time as a nine-point favorite. The Blue Devils advanced to the tourney championship game for the first time since winning the title in 2006 despite shooting just 36.4 percent overall, but they made 9 of 22 shots from the three-point arc (41 percent).
Prior to shocking North Carolina, the Seminoles eliminated Georgia Tech 64-62 in the semifinals, failing to cover as a five-point favorite. They’ve won three in a row and nine of their last 12, and they’re on a 13-5-1 ATS roll. Meanwhile, Duke has won seven of its last eight games – the only defeat coming a week ago today at North Carolina (79-71) – but it has followed up a three-game ATS winning streak by going 1-3 ATS in its last four (0-3 ATS as a favorite).
Duke swept the season series from Florida State, but the ‘Noles got the cash both times. The Blue Devils prevailed 66-58 in Tallahassee as a 9½-point favorite on Jan. 10, then barely held off the Seminoles at home two weeks ago, eking out an 84-81 win as a 12½-point chalk. Duke has won three in a row and eight of the last 10 in this rivalry, but Florida State has cashed eight times during this stretch, going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, all from the underdog role.
The Seminoles carry a slew of positive ATS streaks into the championship game, including 22-9-2 overall, 6-1 at neutral sites, 16-5-2 in ACC action, 19-7-2 against winning teams and 15-4-1 as an underdog. Duke is on ATS slides of 10-22 at neutral venues and 1-5 the ACC tourney.
The under has been the play in 10 of the last 12 meetings in this rivalry, though the clash earlier this month at Duke went over the total. Additionally, the under for Florida State is on stretches of 6-1 overall (all in the ACC), 14-4-2 at neutral sites, 20-7-1 on Sunday and 10-2 against winning teams. Finally, Duke sports “under” streaks of 26-11 overall (5-1 last six), 17-5 in ACC play, 10-1 at neutral venues and 5-2 on Sunday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA STATE and UNDER
BIG TEN TOURNAMENT
(at Indianapolis)
Ohio State (22-9, 16-11 ATS) vs. (24) Purdue (23-9, 13-15 ATS)
Ohio State dominated top-seeded and seventh-ranked Michigan State in Saturday’s Big Ten tournament semifinals, rolling to an 82-70 victory as an eight-point underdog at Conseco Fieldhouse to reach the league championship game for the second time in three years. The Buckeyes shot a blistering 53.2 percent from the field, including making 9 of 16 three-point tries, and held Michigan State to 38 percent shooting (3-for-21 from long range) as they won their fourth in a row (3-1 ATS).
Purdue followed up Friday’s 79-65 rout of Penn State as an eight-point favorite with Saturday’s 66-56 win over Illinois as a 3½-point chalk. The Boilermakers, who led 37-17 at halftime, got 20 points from JaJuan Johnson and 19 from Robbie Hummel to make it to the title game for the first time in 11 years. Purdue’s two wins and covers in Indianapolis come on the heels of a 1-3 SU and 1-4 ATS slump
These teams split their season series, with the host winning each contest. The Buckeyes needed overtime for an 80-72 victory as a two-point home ‘dog, but Purdue got revenge in a big way three weeks later, rolling 75-50 as a 9½-point chalk. Ohio State is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings and 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 clashes, including a 63-52 rout as a 6½-point favorite in the 2007 Big Ten tournament.
Ohio State, which won the tournament championship behind then-freshman Greg Oden in 2007, is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games in this event. Also, the Buckeyes, who won last year’s NIT, have won and covered seven straight postseason games, including Friday’s 61-57 upset victory over Wisconsin as a three-point ‘dog in the quarterfinals, and they’re on additional pointspread runs of 9-4 overall (all in the Big Ten) and 5-0 at neutral sites. However, OSU has failed to cash in seven of its last eight on Sunday.
Purdue, which had advanced past the first round of the Big Ten tournament just once in seven years prior to this season, is 4-5 ATS in its last nine tourney games and 3-5 ATS in its last eight at neutral sites.
The under is on runs of 4-1 for Ohio State overall (all in the Big Ten), 16-5 for Ohio State on Sunday, 5-1 for Purdue on Sunday and 4-1 in this rivalry. However, the Boilermakers have topped the total in both of their tournament games this weekend, making the over 7-1 in their last eight on neutral courts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER
SEC TOURNAMENT
(at Tampa, Fla.)
Mississippi State (22-12, 17-10-1 ATS) vs. Tennessee (20-11, 13-15-1 ATS)
Mississippi State knocked off SEC regular-season champion LSU 67-57 in Saturday’s tournament semifinals, prevailing as a four-point underdog to earn their first berth in the finals since 2003. The Bulldogs have won and covered five in a row and kept their postseason hopes alive despite making just 33 percent of their shots against the Tigers, including missing 13 of 16 tries from beyond the three-point line. However, Mississippi State held LSU to just 31 percent shooting and it went 24-for-35 from the foul line, while its opponent was 9-for-13 on free throws.
Tennessee routed Auburn 94-85 in Saturday’s other semifinal matchup, cashing as a 4½-point favorite just one day after pummeling Alabama 88-62 as an eight-point chalk. The Volunteers, who have reached the title game for the first time in 18 years, shot 62 percent from the field and 58 percent from beyond the arc in crushing Auburn. The Vols have won five of their last six, and they’ve followed an 0-3 ATS stretch by cashing in four of their last five.
These teams faced off on Feb. 25 in Knoxville, Tenn., and the Vols scored an 81-76 victory but failed to cover as a nine-point home favorite. Tennessee has won five in a row in this series (4-1 ATS).
Prior to this weekend, Mississippi State had been in a 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS slump in the SEC tournament since losing to Kentucky in 2003 finals. In addition to knocking off LSU yesterday, the Bulldogs beat Georgia 79-60 as a nine-point favorite Thursday and routed South Carolina 82-68 as a 2½-point pup Friday.
In addition to cashing in its last five games, Mississippi State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven at neutral sites and 4-0 ATS in its last four against winning teams. Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last five at neutral sites, but 3-6 ATS in its last nine SEC tourney tilts. Also, the Vols haven’t covered in three straight games all season.
Tennessee entered this tournament on a 12-3 “under” streak (11-3 in SEC play), but it has topped the total in its two games this weekend. Mississippi State is on “over” runs of 8-3-1 overall (all in SEC action), 5-0 on Sunday and 23-9-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, the over is 3-1 in the last four meetings between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Dallas (40-26, 32-34 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (52-13, 34-31 ATS)
After two days off, the Lakers will try to complete a Texas trifecta when they host the Mavericks inside the Staples Center in Los Angeles.
Los Angeles scored back-to-back wins and covers in Texas last week, winning at Houston 102-96 as a 3½-point ‘dog Wednesday and then getting a 102-95 victory in San Antonio the following night as a three-point pup. The Lakers are 29-4 at home this season, but just 16-17 ATS.
The Mavericks had their three-game winning streak snapped Friday night in Oakland when they fell to Golden State 119-110 as a 1½-point favorite. The 119 points was the most Dallas has allowed since Jan. 25 when it got smoked in Boston 124-100 as a nine-point pup.
The Lakers have dominated this rivalry lately, winning five straight (2-3 ATS), including both meetings this season. On Nov. 11, Los Angeles got a 106-99 win in Dallas as a 5½-point chalk and then scored a 114-107 home win on Nov. 28 but came up short as a 10½-point favorite. The visitor is on a 6-0-1 ATS run in this series, and the Mavs have gotten the cash in their last four visits to the Staples Center.
Dallas is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight roadies overall and 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a pup, but it is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 after a non-cover and 4-1 ATS in its last five against Pacific Division squads. The Lakers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five as a favorite, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 6-1 after getting two days off and 6-2 against Southwest Division teams.
The Mavs have topped the total in seven of 10 overall, but otherwise it’s been all “unders” for Dallas, including 7-2 on the road, 17-6 on Sundays and 7-1 as an underdog. For Los Angeles, the under is on runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1 as a favorite, 4-1-1 on Sundays and 4-0 at home against teams with losing road records. However in this rivalry, the over is 5-1 in the last six clashes overall and 6-2 in the last eight in Hollywood.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Utah (41-25, 35-31 ATS) at Orlando (48-17, 41-23-1 ATS)
The Jazz don’t have much time to recover after a triple-overtime loss in Miami Saturday, heading up the Florida coast to Amway Arena in Orlando to take on the Magic.
Utah has followed up a 12-game winning streak (9-3 ATS) with back-to-back SU and ATS setbacks, including Saturday’s heartbreaking 140-129 setback in Miami in three overtimes, failing as a two-point chalk. Including Wednesday’s 100-93 loss in Atlanta as a 1½-point underdog, the Jazz are just 13-19 SU (15-17 ATS) on the highway this season.
Orlando has won six of seven overall (5-2 ATS), most recently knocking off Washington 112-103 Friday, getting the cash as a 7½-point favorite. The Magic have been tough defensively, allowing just 92.2 points a game over the last five, and they surrender just 91.8 ppg at home this season.
The Magic are 9-1-1 ATS in this series dating back to 2004 and they scored a 103-94 victory in Utah on Dec. 13, pulling off the upset as a 7½-point underdogs However, last season in Orlando, the Jazz prevailed 113-94 as four-point underdogs. The pup has cashed in five straight meetings, with the visitor getting the money in four of those five. Finally, prior to last year, the Magic had covered four straight against Utah at Amway Arena.
Utah is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 overall and 4-2 in its last six on the road, but the Jazz are on ATS slides of 2-5 against the Southeast Division, 2-5 on the second night of a back-to-back and 2-7 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Orlando is on a plethora of ATS runs, including 35-16 overall, 20-6 against the Western Conference, 5-0 on Sundays, 6-1 after one day off and 4-1 against Northwest Division teams.
For the Jazz, the under is 6-2 in their last seven overall, 4-1 in their last five on Sunday and 4-2 in their last six against teams from the Eastern Conference, but the over has been the play in seven of their last 10 on the second day of a back-to-back. Orlando is on “under” streaks of 15-7 at home, 5-2 against Western Conference teams and 4-1 against teams with a winning record. Lastly, the under is 4-1 in the last five matchups in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Craig Trapp
Florida State vs. Duke
Play: Florida St +5.5
Florida State is much better than anyone has given them credit for. Not many teams are doubting them now they have made a run to the conference tourney final. Duke has fixed there point guard issues mid season and have put a run of great games together to finish the season very strong. Odds makers have make Duke the favorite at -6. Lets look at recent trends and ATS records and look for an edge in this matchup.
ATS Records:
FSU: 18-8 ATS overall 11-4 away ATS
Duke: 15-15 ATS overall 8-7 away ATS
Recent Betting Trends:
Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as an underdog.
Seminoles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
Seminoles are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Blue Devils are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 neutral site games as a favorite.
Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Most one sided trends ATS records Craig has seen all season!! Have to go with FSU and in fact think they can win not just cover but will gladly take the six points. Tony Douglas is the best player in the league and FSU is so long and athletic they will give the smaller Duke fits all game. Duke has overachieved this season with no big man to speak of but today it comes back to hurt them. SCORE FSU 76 - DUKE 72
Dave Cokin
Heat @ 76ers
Play: 76ers -5
The Heat won an absolute thriller Saturday as Wade outdueled Williams and Miami beat Utah in three overtimes. But off that marathon and now having to travel to face a rested Philadelphia squad, I think this could be tough for the Heat. I'll lean to the 76ers to get the money here, even at what appears to be slightly inflated number.
James Patrick Sports
Nets vs. Warriors
New Jersey has flown Over the Total in 10 of 12 games and the Warriors love to play uptempo. Our Sunday complimentary selection is New Jersey - Golden State Over the Total in NBA action.
JIM FEIST
NEW JERSEY NETS at LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Take: OVER
Reason: New Jersey is fine offensively, on an 11-2 run over the total. It's defense and rebounding that are the problems. The Nets played brilliantly for much of the night at Denver, building a double-digit cushion, and had an eight-point lead in the fourth period against an elite opponent, before a 109-100 loss. They haven't outrebounded an opponent since Feb. 7 - that's 14 games and counting, after losing a 37-32 glass battle in last night's 109-100 loss to the Blazers. The Clippers are similar, with plenty of offensive weapons, but little regard for defense. These teams met once this season, with LA allowing 112 points as the game went over the total. This will, too. Play the Nets/Clippers over the total.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Golden State
The Warriors return home in a nice spot to host the Suns in this Western Conference clash on ESPN Sunday night. And home is where the money has been for Golden State in this series as the Warriors are 8-1-1 ATS the last ten games when hosting Phoenix. Meanwhile, the struggling Suns enter off last night's home affair with the Thunder knowing they are 4-14 SU and 6-12 ATS on the road off a home game without rest against an avenging opponent. With Phoenix looking ahead to a same-season revenge rematch with Philadelphia, this game has all the makings of an upset. You know what to do.
Big Al Mcmordie
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers
At 1 pm, our member selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers over the Miami Heat. Dwyane Wade has been spectacular of late. Yesterday, "Flash" scored 50 points, as the Heat won 140-129 in overtime vs. Utah. But off that emotional, big win, I look for a letdown on the road in the City of Brotherly Love this afternoon. And it certainly doesn't hurt that Philly has dominated the Heat at home in the Wachovia Center. The Sixers have won and covered five straight, and have also won 15 of 17 (covering 13) dating back to 2000. Take the Sixers.
Jimmy The Moose
Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins
Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins
Two team's headed in opposite directions meet-up in Pittsburgh this afternoon. The Bruins are struggling for the first time this season and come into this game having lost 5 of their last 7 games. Boston has lost 4 straight on the road and are 1-6 in their last 7 on the road. Pittsburgh has won 7 of their last 8 games and their only loss was a shootout loss in Columbus. Pittsburgh is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. an Eastern Conference opponent. In their last 67 home games they are 46-21. The Bruins have owned the Penguins of late but play on the team playing better right now and that's the Pittsburgh Penguins -.
Jeff Benton
For Sunday’s free play in conference tournament action, we’ll lay the points with Purdue in the Big Ten championship game against Ohio State.
Kudos to the Buckeyes for Saturday’s dismantling of top-seeded Michigan State (82-70 win as an eight-point underdog), but Purdue has been flat-out dominating in victories the last two days over a solid Penn State team (79-65) and a quality Illinois squad (66-56). Don’t even pay attention to those two final scores, as the Boilermakers had both games in the bag at halftime, leading Penn State 51-35 at the break Friday and outscoring the Illini 37-17 yesterday.
Having not been taxed either physically or mentally the last two days, Purdue has a significant advantage over Ohio State in the “which team is fresher” department. Then there’s the Boilermakers’ advantage in overall talent. Remember: While the Buckeyes were picked to finish in the middle of the Big Ten pack Purdue was the preseason favorite to win the league, but key injuries – particularly to star forward Robbie Hummel – kept the Boilermakers from living up to expectations in the regular season. However, a win today gives Purdue a rare Big Ten tournament championship and sends the dangerous Boilers in the Big Dance riding high.
Finally, let’s review the two meetings between these teams this season. Without Hummel, Purdue went to Ohio State on Feb. 3 and took a 32-29 halftime lead but lost 80-72 in overtime as a two-point favorite. However, 25 days later in West Lafayette, Hummel poured in 17 points in 30 minutes and the Boilermakers hammered Ohio State 75-50 as a 9½-point home favorite. See what I mean by the talent discrepancy between these squads?
Throw in the fact that Purdue should enjoy partisan crowd support – this tournament is being played in Indianapolis – and I’ll back the more talented Boilermakers, who have surrendered just 59.4 ppg in their last five outings.
3♦ PURDUE
Matt Rivers
For Sunday lay a few points at home with the red hot Hawks.
Don't look now but Mike Woodson's boys are a phenomenal 24-7 at Philips Arena and I don't see anything but another solid win today.
Sure Portland is an up and coming squad that has a nice future with guys like Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden (when healthy) but all the way across the country like this is going to be too difficult. Plus it's not like the Blazers have been all that great on the road as their 13-18 highway mark attests to. Also today's visitors have lost six straight on the road and have failed to cover in five of those contest.
These teams met on February 20th at the Rose Garden and as they usually do at home Portland snatched the win and the cover. Now with a little bit of revenge this price seems cheap enough for me to back the home boys from Hotlanta. Marvin Williams and that cranky back will probably be out but guys like Joe Johnson, Al Horford, Josh Smith and Mike Bibby are no joke and have really gelled well this season. The Hawks are gunning for a home playoff series and the way they have been playing at Philips there is no reason they can't achieve that four spot in the East behind the elite Celtics, Cavaliers and Magic.
It's the NBA so I'm sure this game will come down to the number late but I trust the Hawks at home a lot more than I trust the Blazers on the road and at this cheap price a SU win should, not definitely, but should translate into a cover.
Atlanta has won and covered four in a row. I see five in their future!
Jake Timlin
To find today title game winner all we have to do is look at the only meeting between Mississippi State and Tennessee where the Volunteers won by five points at home. With that win Tennessee has won the past five series meeting straight up while covering 6 of the past 8 meetings. Well given that Tennessee has play one less game in this weekend’s SEC tournament and backed by a pair of easy wins I look for the Volunteers to continue their series dominance against Mississippi State team running on tired legs. So look for the league title and a better seed in big tournament next week I look for Tennessee to take care of business today with an easy win over the Bulldogs.
All Tennessee minus the points!
PICK: Tennessee Volunteers
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
Hey, a minor slip up yesterday as LSU can’t do its job and costs us three straight Comp Play winners in a row. That’s fine as we’re making it three of four winning days as we’re going to Big Ten country where we’re taking Purdue over Ohio State.
The last time these two hooked up, just a few weeks ago, the Boilermakers avenged an earlier loss to the Buckeyes with a huge beat down, beating Ohio State 75-50 as a 9 1/2 point favorite.
Purdue now comes into this game having covered in each of its last two games, both in the Big Ten tournament, beating Penn State 79-65 as an 8-point favorite and beating Illinois 66-56 as a 3-point favorite.
Including both of those games the Boilermakers have covered in three of their last four games where they were installed as a favorite. Also, Purdue is 5-2 ATS its last seven games against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or stronger.
Now the Boilermakers battle an Ohio State team that has covered only once its last four games against Purdue.
The Boilermakers will get over on the Buckeyes easily today and cover almost as easily as they’re last matchup. Take Purdue in this Big Ten matchup.
3♦ PURDUE
Sports Gambling Hotline
Boston at MILWAUKEE +7
Today we grab the points with the home dog Bucks as they take on a Boston team that is struggling with their health, and also struggling against the spread.
Boston is still without Garnett, Allen, Davis, and Scalabrine, and as a result have gone no better then .500 over their last 8 games, at 4-4 straight up. Worse still, is their 1-7 against the spread mark in those 8 games, which bodes well for a Milwaukee team that enters having lost 5 of their last 6 games straight up.
The good news for the slumping Bucks is the fact that while they have lost the last 6 series meetings, they have covered in 2 straight, 3 of the last 4, and 14 of the last 20 series meetings.
Milwaukee may be below .500 for the season with a 30-38 mark, but they do sport a winning 17-16 spread mark at the Bradley Center this year, while going 19-14 straight up in those 33 games.
Play on the Bucks in the home dog role to play strong today.
2♦ MILWAUKEE
Karl Garrett
Dallas +10' at LA LAKERS
Today I'm backing the Mavericks as they hit the City of Angels to play a Lakers team that just played 3 on the road at Portland, Houston, and San Antonio.
The Lakers did cop 2 of the last 3 on that trip straight up and against the spread, but they are just 16-17 against the spread at the Staples Center this season, and have gone just 2-5-1 against the spread the last 8 meetings, even though they have won the last 5 outright.
Dallas just had a 3-game win and cover streak snapped in a loss at Golden State on Friday, so you have to wonder if the Mavericks weren't peaking ahead just a little when they played the Warriors?
I think they were, and I think they will be ready to give it their all as they look to snap that 5-game straight-up series skid.
Take the points.
3♦ DALLAS
Bobby Maxwell
Dallas at L.A. LAKERS -9'
The Lakers were in a bit of a funk until they went to Houston on Wednesday. Then, thanks to Ron Artest, the Rockets woke up the Lakers and they have been great since. More like he woke up Kobe Bryant and this Lakers' team has come right along with him. Play the Lakers today to continue to roll and clobber the soft Mavs by 15.
When Artest started talking to Kobe, he lit them up down the stretch for a 102-96 win as a 3 1/2-point underdog. Then they went to San Antonio on Thursday and beat the red-hot Spurs 102-95 as a three-point pup. Now today they will complete the Texas trifecta with an easy win over the Mavs.
Dallas got knocked around in Oakland on Friday night, losing 119-110 as a 1 1/2-point road favorite. And a defensive effort like that is going to get them smoked today.
The Lakers have won five straight in this rivalry, both this season. They are on ATS runs of 6-1 after getting two days off and 6-2 against Southwest division teams.
We have no doubt the Lakers will come up big today and watch as Kobe puts up 30-plus today for the national TV audience. Play the Lakers.
2♦ L.A. LAKERS