Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Celtics/Bucks UNDER 199
Boston has played to the over in 5 of its last 6 games so odds makers have been forced to post the highest number we have seen during this stretch. The second highest number we have seen during this run was 196.5 against the Magic and that was the lone game that went under the number. Boston is 17-4 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season, 14-2 UNDER in road games after a win by 10 points or more this season, and 11-3 UNDER in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. Bet the Under.
Vegas Experts
New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavs
Normally, we like to lay the points at home with Cleveland, no matter how big a favorite they are, but not today. The Cavs are suddenly struggling on the defensive end and at the betting window. The one thing the Knicks can do well is score (100+ pts in EVERY game since 1/17), so we look for them to stay with Cleveland just like they did in MSG last month. This is also Cleveland's first home game following a week long road trip.
Play on: New York
EZWINNERS FREE SELECTION
Game: Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers
(881) Dallas Mavericks (+9.5)
The Mavericks have been playing pretty well despite their loss
at Golden State on Friday and they always play the Lakers tough
at Staples Center. The road team is 6-0-1 against the spread in
the last seven meetings between these two teams and the Mavs
are 11-1 against the spread after an against the spread loss.
This line looks to be overinflated. Take the points!
2009 Free Selections Record 41-32 (56.2%)
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
224 - 150 run 60 %
Sunday - Boston Celtics
DUNKEL
Florida State vs. Duke
The Seminoles are 10-4 ATS as an underdog and look to take advantage of a Duke team that is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 March games. Florida State is the underdog pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Devils favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+6 1/2).
Game 893-894: Florida State vs. Duke
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 67.982; Duke 71.915
Dunkel Line: Duke by 4
Vegas Line: Duke by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+6 1/2)
Game 895-896: Mississippi State vs. Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 63.273; Tennessee 71.248
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 8
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 4
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-4)
Game 897-898: Ohio State vs. Purdue
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 65.141; Purdue 69.632
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Purdue by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+6 1/2)
Game 899-900: TX-San Antonio vs. Stephen F. Austin
Dunkel Ratings: TX-San Antonio 48.054; Stephen F. Austin 55.408
Dunkel Line: Stephen F. Austin by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Stephen F. Austin by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stephen F. Austin (-6 1/2)
NHL
Boston at Pittsburgh
The Penguins look to take advantage of a Boston team that has lost four straight on the road. Pittsburgh is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-135).
Game 1-2: Philadelphia at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.042; NY Rangers 11.534
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+110); Under
Game 3-4: Boston at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.558; Pittsburgh 12.588
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-135); Over
Game 5-6: NY Islanders at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.467; Chicago 11.862
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-300); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-300); Under
Game 7-8: Detroit at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.913; Columbus 12.496
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+115); Over
Game 9-10: Minnesota at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.609; St. Louis 11.285
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145); Under
Game 11-12: San Jose at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 10.942; Anaheim 11.173
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+115); Over
Game 13-14: Colorado at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.960; Vancouver 11.724
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-250); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-250); Under
John Ryan
Ohio State vs. Purdue
Play: Purdue -7
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Purdue as they face Ohio State in the Big-10 Championship. AIS shows a 74% probability that Purdue will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 75-35 for 68% since 1997. Play against neutral court teams as a dog in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams hitting 69-73% and is a good ball handling team committing <=14.5 TOPG facing an average pressure defensive team forcing 14.5-17.5 TOPG. Purdue is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a good team sporting a win percentage of 60% to 80% after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Take Purdue.
Tom Freese
Dallas at La Lakers
The Lakers are 20-7-1 OVER off a Straight Up Win and they are 5-1 OVER off an ATS win. Los Angeles is 20-9-1 OVER vs. an opponent that scored 100 or more points in their last game and they are 5-2-1 OVER as favorites of 5.0 to 10.5 points. Dallas is 5-0 OVER when playing with one day of rest and they are 4-0 OVER off an ATS loss. The Mavericks are 7-3 OVER their last 10 games overall and they are 6-2 OVER their last 8 games with the Lakers. PLAY ON 'OVER'
Larry Ness
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers
Is Dwayne Wade really any good? He matched a career high with 50 points while adding 10 rebounds and nine assists in Saturday's 140-129 triple-overtime win over Utah. He's averaging an NBA-leading 30.0 PPG, while adding 5.2 RPG and 7.7 APG. After last year's 'nightmare' season (15-67), the Heat are 36-29 and in great position to return to the playoffs, this year. O'Neal (13.5-5.8) and Moon (8.8-5.4) have now each played 13 games with the Heat (Miami sent Marion to Toronto) and that trade seems to have worked very well for Miami. Haslem (10.6-8.4) has been a 'rock' in the frontcourt all year, with rookie PG Chalmers (10.1-4.7 APG) settling nicely into the starting lineup, while the No. 2 pick (overall) from last year, Michael Beasley (13.4-5.2), has done a good job accepting his role of coming off the bench. The 76ers made a strong second-half run last year to make the playoffs. Much was expected from them this season, especially after they signed Elton Brand away from the Clippers. However, Brand (13.8-8.8) never fit in and now is lost for the season with an injury. His 13.8 points mark a career single-season low in PPG, as does his 44.7 FG percentage (his career mark is 50.3). Iquodala (18.0-6.0-5.3) got off to a slow start but his numbers are now up to those of the last two seasons. Miller (16.5-4.5-6.5) continues to be one of the league's most consistent PGs and small forward Thaddeus Young (14.4-4.9) has made a HUGE improvement from his rookie year (8.2-4.2). Williams (12.1) has followed last year's breakout season (11.5) with another solid year plus veteran guard Green (9.5) adds depth to Philly's quality perimeter players. Inside, center Dalembert (6.4-8.8) is an excellent rebounder and defender plus 6-10 Florida rookie Speights (7.9-3.7), may turn out to be a better player than Joakim Noah? Philly really struggled coming out of the All Star break, losing their first four and going 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS in their first 10. They have won two straight though (home wins over Tor and Chi), and now get a Heat team coming off yesterday's triple-OT win. Chalmers, Haslem and Wade all played 50-plus minutes on Saturday, while the always fragile O'Neal played 48. What's more, Miami has dropped 15 of its 17 games in Philadelphia. Take the 76ers.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Lakers -9.5
Off back-to-back wins over Houston and San Antonio the Lakers are back at home and well rested to take on a road weary Mavs team. The Lakers have won 21 of the last 24 at home in this series and I expect them to breakout offensively today after 3 straight games of being held below their season average. The Lakers are 13-3 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons and 29-11 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Lay the points this afternoon.
Gina
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers should have no problem against the Mavericks tonight at the Staples Center. Los Angeles has won 22 their last 25 games at home versus Dallas, but they haven’t beaten them by double digits in the last ten battles. Take the points! The Mavericks have covered the spread in the last four contests versus the Lakers in Los Angeles and the road team in this series is 6-0-1 ATS.
Dallas Mavericks +9½
Johnny Guild
Portland Trail Blazers at Atlanta Hawks
Portland Trail Blazers have won six of their last eight games and have taken 13 of the last 14 clashes against the Atlanta Hawks, including six straight in Atlanta. However, the Blazers road struggles continue. Portland has lost six of their last 7 games on the road, going 2-5 ATS and is just 13-18 away from home this season. Contrary, the Hawks have won six of its last seven games at home, going 7-0 ATS. Take the Hawks on their home court to finally win a hard fought clash against the road struggling Blazers.
Atlanta Hawks -4
Conference Tournament
Ohio St. Buckeyes +6.5
Michael Cannon
Ohio State +6' vs. Purdue, at Indianapolis, IN
My free play run is now 3-0 after Louisville takes care of Syracuse last night!
Take the points with Ohio State this afternoon in the Big 10 championship over Purdue.
The Buckeyes just absolutely dominated Michigan State yesterday, winning 82-70 as an eight-point dog.
Ohio State has now won four straight, going 3-1 ATS.
Purdue has rolled through this tournament as well, winning by 14 over Penn State and by 10 over Illinois yesterday.
But I like the mojo the Buckeyes have going for them right now and I expect them to keep this game close throughout.
Ohio State is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings and 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 with the Boilermakers. The Buckeyes are also on ATS runs of 9-4 overall and 5-0 at neutral sites.
The Boilermakers, who advanced to the title game for the first time in 11 years, are 4-5 ATS in their last nine tournament games and 3-5 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.
Take the points with Ohio State as they stay within the number.
2♦ OHIO STATE
Drew Gordon
Boston at MILWAUKEE +6'
Have you seen the Celtics play on the road of late? They lost outright at the Clippers, failed to cover at the Nets, and lost outright again at Miami in their last 3 roadies... And yet, the public continues to back them as though they're healthy, when they're obviously not! Boston sending out a clear fade signal, as they try and manage while Garnett heals.
Granted, we all know about Milwaukee's injury situation, and yes, they've been struggling of late, but they're still 19-14 SU and 17-16 ATS at home, so let's not get too down on the Bucks in this one. They've lost 2 of their last 3 at the Bradley Center, and you better believe they're coming full force this afternoon!
So how do they do it? Simple, here's another example of a team that benefits greatly from the absence of Garnett, who's one of the best frontcourt defenders in the game. Villanueva and Jefferson should have a field day against this Celts defense, which while still solid, is allowing 98 ppg on 46% shooting over their last 5 games! No denying the Celtics defensive numbers have declined greatly in the absence of Garnett, and with Glen Davis out, they're even thinner at the position.
Finally, a couple things to remember: A. Last time these 2 met in Milwaukee, the game was razor close, with the Celts winning 102-97 in OT. In fact, the Celtics are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 meetings with the Bucks! And B. Remember guys, the Celtics are just 1-7 ATS over their last 8 games, as the absence of Garnett is really beginning to wear on this team's profitability. Play here on the home dog!
Take Milwaukee plus the points over Boston in this NBA match up.
3♦ MILWAUKEE
Craig Davis
Okay, I’m a believer. I had no idea Florida State had as much talent as they really do and if there’s a team that plays defense like the Seminoles, they’re probably winning a ton of games. FSU did a fantastic job of keeping the Tar Heels off the boards and out of the scoring column, allowing the high-scoring Heels to score just 70 points yesterday. Today, they get to show that defense off against a team that isn’t quite as athletic as they are, and that’s going to spell trouble in the end for Duke.
Like Ohio State and Michigan State, the higher ranked team swept the season series but won’t have an answer in the post-season tourney. Duke nearly let a double digit lead slip away Saturday against Maryland, but held on in the end for a 67-61 win. As the season has gone on, FSU has gotten better and better and it’s evidenced in their recent scores. Not only did they beat UNC today, they also beat Virginia Tech, lost by three to Duke (at Duke), beat Clemson and beat Miami. Their losses haven’t been bad and they haven’t dropped a game by double digits since an 86-63 blowout at Wake Forest over a month ago. Sorry, but I don’t trust Duke in this role and even if they win the game SU, I don’t believe they have it in them to win by more than 6. Take FSU and take the points.
2♦ FLORIDA STATE
Wunderdog
Portland at Atlanta
Pick: UNDER 187
The Blazers are tied with the Nuggets at the top of the Northwest. This team doesn't lose at the Rose Garden but on the road they struggle. Atlanta is very similar - not so hot on the road but extremely tough at home. As we get closer to the playoffs, games like this become statement games of sorts. They often take on a playoff atmosphere and that means defense. Atlanta games have averaged just 181.6 total points in their last five. They are 18-12 UNDER at home this season and Portland has seen more UNDERs than OVERs on the road this season. The Hawks are also 16-6 UNDER in non-conference games this season. When facing a winning team, the Blazers are 65-45 UNDER the past three seasons. Over the past two seasons, Portland is 42-29 UNDER as an underdog. The last time these teams met, Portland embarrassed the Hawks, winning by double-digits. I expect a fired-up Hawks team to dictate the tone here and that will be defense. Take the UNDER.
Yankee Capper
NBA
New York/Cleveland Under 209
Phoenix/Golden State Under 242.5
NCAA Hoops
FSU/Duke Over 134.5
NHL
Detroit/Columbus Over 5.5
Boston/Pittsburgh Under 5.5