SPORTS ADVISORS
Dallas (48-31, 39-40 ATS) at New Orleans (48-31, 33-44-2 ATS)
The Mavericks and Hornets – stuck in a heated battle for third place in the Southwest Division as well as playoff positioning in the Western Conference – get together for the second time in 48 hours, with the scene shifting from Dallas to New Orleans Arena.
The Mavericks built a large lead against New Orleans through three quarters Friday night, then survived a furious Hornets comeback to win 100-92 and cover as a seven-point home favorite. Dallas finished its three-game homestand a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS, and it has won five of its last six overall (4-2 ATS), averaging 113 points per game during this stretch.
New Orleans is stumbling to the finish line, losing two in a row, four out of five and six out of 10, going 1-3 at home during this span. In addition, the Hornets have been a disaster at the betting window of late, going 1-4 ATS in their last five and 5-10 ATS in their last 15 (3-5 ATS at home). Normally the team’s strength, defense has been costing New Orleans lately, as it is allowing 102.7 ppg in the last seven outings.
With Friday’s victory, Dallas snapped a four-game losing skid (1-3 ATS) to the Hornets that stretched to last year’s first-round Western Conference playoff series. The home team has won 10 of the last 12 battles (9-3 ATS), with the Hornets winning the last six clashes in New Orleans (5-1 ATS). Additionally, the favorite is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 battles between these division rivals.
Despite covering against the Hornets on Friday, the Mavericks are still only 2-6 ATS in their last eight against Southwest Division foes, but they’re on ATS runs of 4-1 against the Western Conference and 7-3 as a ‘dog of less than five points. New Orleans carries nothing but negative pointspread trends, including 1-4 overall, 0-4 against the Western Conference, 1-6 when laying points, 1-7 as a favorite of less than five points, 1-4 when playing on one day of rest and 4-12 after a SU defeat.
The under is 5-1 in the last six series meetings between these squads. Additionally, Dallas is on “under” streaks of 5-1 on the road, 11-1 as an underdog, 5-1 versus winning teams, 12-5 in divisional contests and 19-7 when playing on Sunday. Finally, the Hornets are on “under” runs of 13-3 overall, 7-1 at home, 10-3 as a favorite, 10-2 when playing on one day of rest, 9-3 against Western Conference opponents and 17-5-1 versus division rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Boston (60-19, 41-38 ATS) at Cleveland (64-15, 47-32 ATS)
The surging Celtics look to become just the second visitor this season to win at Quicken Loans Arena when they face the Cavaliers for the final time in the regular season.
Boston has won six in a row and 10 of its last 11, including Friday’s 105-98 victory over the Heat as a six-point home favorite. The Celtics have followed up a 1-10 ATS slump by cashing in seven of their last 10, and they’ve won three of their last four on the road (4-0 ATS), the only blemish being an 84-82 setback at Orlando as a 3½-point underdog. Boston’s offense has kicked into gear over the last two weeks, scoring 103 points or more in five straight games, averaging 105.8 ppg on 50.4 percent shooting.
Cleveland, which is 38-1 at home this year, ran its winning streak to three in a row with Friday’s 102-92 victory at Philadelphia as a 6½-point road chalk. The Cavaliers are 25-4 SU in their last 29 games and they’ve held 12 of their last 14 opponents to 96 points or fewer. On the downside, LeBron James and his crew remain in a 7-12 ATS slump (3-7 ATS at home), and it has cashed in consecutive contests just once during this 19-game span.
This rivalry has belonged to the home team over the last two-plus years, with the host winning 15 clashes in a row, including last year’s seven-game Eastern Conference semifinal playoff series. However, the Cavaliers are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 battles, including four consecutive spread-covers at Quicken Loans Arena. In the most recent meeting March 6, the Celtics cruised 105-94 as a 1½-point home chalk after Cleveland won and covered the first two battles this season.
Boston has failed to cover in five of its last seven Sunday contests and four of its last five against the Central Division. Aside from that, though, the Celtics are on pointspread streaks of 4-0 on the highway, 5-0 against winning teams, 38-16 as an underdog, 41-16 as a road pup, 10-1 as an underdog of 5 to 10½ points and 5-0 when playing on one day of rest.
In addition to its 3-7 ATS funk at home, Cleveland is on pointspread slides of 4-9 after a SU win, 1-5 against the Eastern Conference and 1-6 after a spread-cover, but the Cavs have cashed in 21 of their last 26 against the Atlantic Division.
For Cleveland, the “under” is on runs of 39-19-1 at home, 13-3-1 as a home chalk, 6-2-1 as a favorite regardless of venue, 38-14-1 on Sunday, 24-10-1 when playing after one day off and 17-8 against the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, the Celtics have topped the total in four straight games overall, but otherwise they’re on “under” stretches of 20-9 on the road and 13-4 as a road ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (3-2) at Milwaukee (2-3)
Jeff Suppan (0-1, 13.50 ERA) looks to bounce back from a horrible 2009 debut when he leads the Brewers against the Cubs and Ryan Dempster (0-0, 3.00) in the finale of a three-game series between division rivals at Miller Park.
After losing Friday’s series opener in the bottom of the ninth inning, the Cubs got two runs in the top of the ninth Saturday to rally for a 6-5 victory. Both Chicago and Milwaukee have alternated wins and losses in their first five games.
Chicago is on runs of 24-11 on the road, 18-6 as a road chalk, 8-3 on Sunday and 4-0 when Dempster starts on Sunday. The Brewers are on hot streaks of 8-3 at home, 7-2 against the N.L. Central and 22-8 when Suppan starts against division rivals.
Dempster was solid in his first start of the season, holding the Astros to two runs on six hits and three walks in six innings, but Chicago fell 3-2 in 10 innings on the road. The Cubs have lost five of Dempster’s last seven starts (playoffs included), even though he’s yielded three earned runs or fewer in six of those contests. Furthermore, Dempster has allowed four earned runs or fewer in 18 straight starts since the beginning of last July.
Suppan lasted just four innings in Tuesday’s season-opener at San Francisco, allowing six runs (all earned) on six hits and a walk, losing 10-6. Going back to the start of September, Suppan has a 9.84 ERA in seven starts, with Milwaukee going 1-6. Last year at home, the veteran right-hander was 3-3 with a 4.36 ERA in 13 starts.
Dempster went 4-0 with a 2.40 ERA in five starts against the Brewers last season, including 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two outings at Miller Park. For his career, he’s 8-2 with a 2.45 ERA in 35 appearances (13 starts) versus Milwaukee. Suppan is 6-6 with a 3.60 ERA in 19 career starts against Chicago, including 1-1 with a 6.60 ERA in three games last season.
The over is 11-4-2 in the last 17 meetings between these rivals and 13-4-2 in the last 19 battles at Miller Park. Otherwise, though, the under is on streaks of 4-2 for Chicago overall, 5-2 for Chicago on the road, 10-2 for Chicago as a road favorite, 6-0 for Chicago on Sunday, 5-2 for Chicago when Dempster starts, 7-3 for Milwaukee overall, 4-1 for Milwaukee at home and 5-2-1 for Milwaukee on Sunday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (2-3) at L.A. Angels (2-3)
After hanging on for a victory over the Angels on Saturday, the Red Sox will hand the ball to ace Josh Beckett (1-0, 1.29 ERA) in the rubber match of a three-game series at Angel Stadium. Los Angeles is set to counter with Dustin Moseley (0-0, 4.50).
Jason Bay socked two home runs, Mike Lowell contributed a solo shot and closer Jonathan Papelbon survived a shaky ninth inning as Boston prevailed 5-4 on Saturday to end a three-game slide. Additionally, the Red Sox snapped a nine-game regular-season losing streak to the Angels, winning for the first time in five tries in Anaheim.
Boston is 12-3 in its last 15 games against the A.L. West, but just 2-5 in its last seven against right-handed starting pitchers and 3-8 in its last 11 as a favorite. The Angels are on sterling runs of 24-12 against the A.L. East, 7-1 as an underdog, 5-0 as a home pup and 5-0 on Sunday.
With Beckett on the mound, the Red Sox are on runs of 22-10 on the road and 20-7 as a road chalk, but they’re just 2-5 in his last seven outings overall, 2-5 in his last seven starts on Sunday, 1-4 in his last five against the A.L. West and 1-4 in his last five outings versus the Angels. Meanwhile, L.A. is 4-1 the last five times Moseley has taken the mound as a home underdog.
Beckett was dominant in his season debut Tuesday, holding the Rays to one run on two hits and three walks while striking out 10 over seven innings en route to a 5-3 home victory. However, Beckett struggled on the road last year, going just 5-5 with a 5.65 ERA (compared with 7-5 with a 2.85 ERA at home),
Moseley allowed just three runs on nine hits in his debut Tuesday against the A’s, but got a no-decision as Los Angeles lost 6-4 at home. It marked the first time since April 9, 2008 – a stretch of nine starts – that Moseley lasted at least six innings, but he has given up three earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven outings, including the last four in a row. The right-hander was 4-0 despite a bloated 5.65 ERA in 19 home appearances (four starts) in 2008.
Beckett went 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in three starts against the Angels last season, including one playoff outing. Prior to that, the veteran right-hander had gone 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in his first five career starts against the Halos, with Boston winning four of those contests. Meanwhile, Moseley’s one start against Boston came in August 2007, and he got roughed up, allowing six runs (all earned) on 10 hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 9-6 loss.
For Boston, the “under” is on streaks of 6-0-1 on Sunday, 4-0-1 against right-handed starters, 11-5-1 as a favorite, 6-1-1 with Beckett on the mound and 4-1 with Beckett working on the road. The under is also 36-17-5 in the Angels’ last 58 Sunday games, but the over is 6-2 in Moseley’s last eight home starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Craig Trapp
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Chicago Cubs
Today free sports pick is the Cubs traveling to the Brewers in a divisional matchup. Lets look at the records and trends:
Records:
Chicago Cubs: 3-2 Dempster 0-1 (3.00 ERA)
Milwaukee Brewers 2-3 Suppan 0-1 (13.50 ERA)
Trends:
-Cubs are 17-6 in their last 23 games as a road favorite.
-Cubs are 4-0 in Dempsters last 4 Sunday starts.
-Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
-Brewers are 2-11 in their last 13 games as an underdog.
-Brewers are 0-4 in Suppans last 4 Sunday starts.
-Cubs are 4-1 in Dempsters last 5 starts vs. Brewers.
As you can see with the trends Milwaukee has been owned by Demsters and also by the Chicago Cubs. Suppan has not looked great in spring training and in his first start was down right horrible. Saturdays game was another demoralizing loss for MIL with a late 2 run home run by Soriano in the 9th inning. CHC are the big bullies that always beat you up and today they will do it again. Don't worry CHC will win this one going away. SCORE CHC 6 - MIL 3
James Patrick Sports
76'ers vs. Raptors
The 76'ers are still in a play-off position battle and need every win they can grab. This series has provided some high scoring affairs with 5 straight Over the Total in Toronto and 7 of 8 meetings going Over the Total. James Patrick's Easter Sunday complimentary selection in the NBA is Philadelphia - Toronto Over the Total.
Cajun Sports
Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors
Selection: Philadelphia 76ers +1
The Toronto Raptors will host the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday evening at Air Canada Centre. The 76ers are still fighting for playoff position even though they have locked up a spot they need this win tonight because they face Boston and Cleveland to close out the regular season. Philadelphia's recent slide has kept it from overtaking Miami for fifth place in the conference, and it's also put the team in danger of being overtaken by Chicago and Detroit. Philadelphia is one game behind the Heat, who hosts New York on Sunday. The 76ers last visit to Air Canada Centre was a successful one as they defeated the Raptors 106 to 96 as a five-point road underdog. That win came way back in November but the Sixers have taken two out of three from the host and also covered the spread in those two wins. The Raptors are 11-26 ATS when facing teams with a winning record this season and we expect that trend to continue tonight. Philadelphia is 30-14 ATS in road games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days the last 3 seasons and 14-4 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more in 2 straight games. Our TPR Index projects a Philadelphia win and cover by 4.8 points over the Toronto Raptors on Sunday. With one team playing for playoff position and the other having tossed the towel on the season we will back the visitor here tonight as Philadelphia rolls past the Raptors north of the border.
Graded Selection: 2* Philadelphia 76ers 99 Toronto Raptors 94
Marc Lawrence
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
Mark Buerhle and the White Sox take on the Twins in this A.L. Central battle at Comiskey Park today knowing Minnesota hurler Nick Blackburn has come up empty in all 4 of his career team starts in this park, posting a 5.49 ERA in the process. With Buerhle 12-6 in his last 18 home team starts against the Twins, look for the Pale Hose to improve to 10-1 in their last eleven games on Sundays here today.
Bobby Maxwell
Chicago Cubs at MILWAUKEE +125
Sunday night FREE winner for you here on the diamond as we go with the Brewers at home to get the victory over the Cubs.
These two teams have played two thrillers already in this series with the Brewers scoring two in the ninth to win Friday and the Cubs coming back with two in the ninth on Saturday to get the win.
Milwaukee's Jeff Suppan gets a shot at redemption after his opener on Tuesday when he gave up six runs on six hits in a 10-6 loss to the Giants. He's 6-6 in his career against the Cubs and went 1-1 last season with a 6.60 ERA in three games agaisnt them.
Ryan Dempster goes for the Cubs and they have lost five of his last seven starts, including the playoffs. He gave up two runs on six hits in Houston in his first start of the season and the Cubs lost 3-2 in 10 innings.
Milwaukee has alternated wins and losses this season and we're going to count on that to continue tonight. They will get enough offense off Dempster and expect Suppan to pitch very well at home. Get the plus-money and play the Brewers.
4♦ MILWAUKEE
Brian Hansen
New York Knicks at Miami Heat
The Knicks scored a big win in Orlando on Friday night beating Orlando by 10 points as a 10.5-point underdog. They stay on the road today in Miami and take on the Heat. The Sportsbooks have the Heat as 6.5-point dogs. Miami comes into this game off back-to-back losses and we think they’ll get an easy one today over these Knicks. Play on Miami and lay the points!
Play on: Miami
VEGAS EXPERTS
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavs
Can't see the Cavs losing at home, so laying a short number should be no problem. Boston has not won in Cleveland since 2004. The road team has not won in this head to head series in over two years. Cleveland has won two straight by double-digits and when they do that, they are 15-7 ATS next game. Boston doesn't even have Kevin Garnett here. This is such a huge statement game for the Cavs, who want to square away the season series, that we project a blowout Sunday afternoon.
Play on: Cleveland
Frank Jordan
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Francisco Giants
Padres used a good outing from their ace Jake Peavy and a 4 spot in the 5th inning to double up the Giants 6-3 on Saturday. On Sunday look for Lincecum to make up for the shaky opening start with a quality start Sunday evening up the Giants record at 3-3. Play San Francisco
Tony Karpinski
Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers -6.5
Sure, some of the luster of this Boston-Cleveland meeting is off considering that both have clinched their respective playoff spots for next weekend, but we feel both teams will get rested after it today, as they know they are likely to face each other once again in the postseason, and feel the need to "send a message" in this showdown.
That being said, we will side with the Cavaliers minus the number at home as they are still in the hunt with the LA Lakers for best overall record and the Celtics are without KG. Cleveland is 38-1 straight up on their home hardwood, and they thoroughly dominated the Celtics at the Quicken Loans Arena 98-83 back in early January. The Cavs are on a 7-1 spread run - playoffs included - the last 8 times the teams have clashed, and the Cavaliers are also on a 4-1 spread run the last 5 times they have been installed as a single digit favorite on the year and have won more games by double digits than any team in the NBA this year.Look for the Cavs to lock up another Double -Digit win Sunday afternoon!
LT Profits
Mariners/Athletics Under 8
Erik Bedard has a lost season in his first with the Seattle Mariners last year due to injury, but he looked to be almost back to his true form in his first start this year, so runs should be at a premium today vs. the Oakland Athletics and the promising Trevor Cahill.
Sure, Bedard was touched up for three runs in five innings by the Twins on Tuesday, but he had eight strikeouts and no walks in those five innings, which is certainly an encouraging sign. He also tossed a masterpiece in his only start vs. the Athletics last year, allowing two hits in 6.2 scoreless innings, and the last time he pitched in this spacious stadium, he allowed one run on just one hit with 11 strikeouts in seven innings two years ago.
Cahill was solid in his first Major League start, allowing two earned runs in five innings vs. the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim, and like most pitchers, he should appreciate the dimensions of his home ballpark. Cahill is one of the top prospects in all of baseball, and he has drawn comparisons to because of his natural sinker. He should be doubly tough his first time through the American League.
While both of these starters went only five innings in their season debuts, they should be stretched out a bit more today, which looks like bad news for the hitters.
Pick: Mariners/Athletics Under 8
Jim Feist
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS at TORONTO RAPTORS
Take: TORONTO RAPTORS
Final home game for the Raptors, who always play their best at home. Raptors center Andrea Bargnani, who missed last Wednesday's loss at Indiana with a sore left heel, returned to the starting lineup and scored nine points the last game. They take on a Philadelphia team that is 16-23 on the road and has already clinched a playoff spot. They have been coasting since, on an 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS. Play the Raptors.
Dave Cokin
TAMPA BAY RAYS VS BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Take: TAMPA BAY RAYS
Adam Eaton is back in the bigs once again and starting, so that means I'm looking at the other side. Eaton really doesn't appear to have the stuff to get major leaguers out anymore. James Shields had a rough season debut, but that was at Fenway, where he never pitches well. Look for a better effort here and expect the Rays to get the win over the Orioles.
Nelly
Kansas City + over New York
The Yankees have had two big wins in Kansas City so far, getting great pitching efforts from Andy Pettitte and C.C. Sabathia. Today's game could be the letdown spot for the Bronx Bombers as Joba Chamberlain has not proven he can be a successful starter in this league. The Royals have hit considerably better against right-handed pitching and after being shutdown by three straight left-handers this should be a great opportunity to deliver their best offensive performance of the season. Kansas City has faced four lefties in five games and are 1-0 against right-handed starters.Gil Meche pitched a great game to open the season only to see his lead lost. Meche has been an excellent early season pitcher and a true ace for the Royals even if the win/loss record has not been spectacular. The Yankees have been much less successful on offense against right-handed starters and key acquisition Mark Teixeira may be on the shelf for this game. Chamerlain was wild this spring and has just three career wins as a starter. The Royals won Meche's only start against the Yankees last season and as a home underdog Kansas City can take this game.
Big Al Mcmordie
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
At 2:05pm our member selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Minnesota Twins. Left-handed veteran starter Mark Buehrle has provided the White Sox with some of the most consistent stats over the past nine seasons and there's no reason why he can't continue to do so. Buehrle's durability (he's thrown over 200 innings in every year since 2000) is probably due mostly to the fact that he doesn't throw very hard. As a result, Buehrle is often forgotten about because he is not flashy and doesn't strike out a lot of guys. But he was up to his old tricks in his first start of the season, even though he only went five innings, something he doesn't do very often (oddly enough, he also had a five-inning outing in his first start of 2008). He faced a light-hitting Royals team in his first start and he gets more of the same this afternoon with the Joe Mauer-less Minnesota Twins and their right-hander Nick Blackburn. The Twins were lucky to win Blackburn's 2009 debut on Tuesday when Seattle's bullpen squandered a two-run, ninth inning lead. This game is being played in Chicago and that also spells bad news for Blackburn as he was woeful on the road last season (3-8 with a 4.97 ERA in 19 starts away from Minneapolis). Take the White Sox.