Lenny Del Genio
New York Knicks at Miami Heat
Prediction: New York Knicks
Just because a team "has" to win to improve its playoff position, doesn't neccessarily mean that they will actually come through. Such is the case with a banged up Miami Heat team on Sunday that is laying too many points against a dangerous Knicks squad that has proven itself to be very profitable on the road as of late. New York has covered 13 of its last 16 road games and looking back further we find them at 25-12 when getting points away from MSG this season. When they receive 6.5 or more points from the oddsmaker, they are 13-3 vs. the number. Against winning teams with a win percentage of .600 or less, the Knicks have covered seven straight. Miami has been a lousy home favorite for two years now (15-26 ATS) and has covered just two of its previous 13 home games in the month of April.
David Chan
Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Under
I made a bad misread on Kevin Millwood in his season debut, but lucked out as the Rangers offense chimed in with nine runs to cash the 'over'.
Today, I don't think we're going to see a great deal of offense. Not with a rejuvenated Millwood against Edwin Jackson, who is out to prove he belongs in the Tigers rotation.
Millwood gave up only one run on five hits over the course of seven innings last Monday. Last season he pitched two of his best games against these same Tigers, giving up just 11 hits and five earned runs over 15 innings while striking out 10 and walking three.
By all accounts this looks like a nice spot for him to build on that strong first effort.
Edwin Jackson is hoping to make Detroit his permanent home after splitting time in Los Angeles and Tampa Bay during his first six big league seasons. He pitched in Toronto on Tuesday, and deserved better than a no-decision after holding the Jays to only two hits and a run in 7 1/3 innings. Right-handers have traditionally held the edge against the Rangers and I think that will hold true in 2009.
The weather will be conducive to a low-scoring game, with temperatures in the 40s accompanied by brisk winds.
Home plate umpire Bill Hohn also helps our cause. His first game of the season featured a grand total of two runs. In the Spring he worked to the tune of a 1-3 o/u record. He actually worked three Kevin Millwood starts last season, and all three resulted in seven total runs or less.
David Malinsky
Yankees (RL) @ Royals (RL)
PICK: Royals (RL)
On a cold day in Kansas City with the wind blowing in we believe that a weakened Yankee lineup is going to have trouble getting any kind of separation against Gil Meche. And with the low offensive expectations that we have for this game, the Run Line is the best value play to take advantage, especially with +1.5 available at -140 in the current market.
On May 8th of LY we wrote a column about Meche, noting how he had found a flaw in his mechanics that he believed caused his slow start, and it turned out that he was spot on – from that point you would have gone 11-1 playing the Royals at +1.5 in his home starts. He was almost flawless in his opening outing against the White Sox, allowing one run over seven innings without walking a batter, needing only 91 pitches and only having fly ball outs through that stretch. Now he takes on a lineup that will be without Mark Teixera, Johnny Damon and Jordge Posada, and he is capable of having the Royals right in the hunt here.
The Kansas City offense has struggled in the early going, which may not change against Joba Chamberlain and a Yankee bullpen that does not have any fatigue ratings anywhere. But that does not keep us away from this setting, it merely steers us to the Run Line as the appropriate tool.
Jack Jones
Cleveland Indians -125
The Indians are the last remaining team in the American League without a win (0-5), and you can't tell me that won't provide some extra motivation for the Tribe this afternoon. Cleveland still has a strong enough lineup to do some damage in the AL Central this year, but their pitching needs to catch up quick. They'll get their first start of the year out of Anthony Reyes, and the Indians have high hopes for this year after he went 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA for them last year. The Blue Jays send David Purcey to the mound Sunday. Purcey had a good opener for Toronto, but this is just his second season in the Majors and he went just 3-6 with a 5.54 ERA in his rookie season. I'm not saying he hasn't improved, but I think the Indians can take advantage of him and earn their first win of the 2009 season.
Steve Merril
PHILADELPHIA +120 (Park/Cook)
Solid value with the World Series champions at an underdog price. The Phillies’ bats awoke on Saturday night in Colorado and will have one more game in the Mile High City and will be happy to face Aaron Cook who was terrible on opening day when he allowed 6 runs and 7 hits in just 2.3 innings of work at Arizona. Philadelphia has dominated Cook who has a weak 1-4 record with an ERA of 6.37 against the Phillies. Granted they haven’t faced him since July of 2007, but Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley , Ryan Howard, and Jayson Werth all hit above .300 against Cook.
The Phillies are sending Chan Ho Park to the mound who is very familiar with Coors Field from his time with the Dodgers. The last two times pitching there, he came out on top 13-4 and 7-2 going 7 innings in each outing. Park saw limited action last season, but he pitched well and allowed one earned run or less in four of his five starts.
Yankee Capper
NHL
St. Louis Blues -160
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers -8
MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates +140
John Ryan
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Total: Under 8.5
Ai Simulator 5* graded play UNDER Milwaukee/Chicago slated to be seen on ESPn starting at 8:05 EST. Milwaukee is a solid 17-5 UNDER (+11.2 Units) vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons. Milwaukee starter is a strong 9-1 UNDER (+8.0 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons; 10-1 UNDER (+9.0 Units) vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons.Take the UNDER.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Under 10
Ai Simulator 5* graded play UNDER Philadelphia/Colorado slated to start at 3:05 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that 10 or fewer runs will be scored in this game. Philadelphia is 51-32 UNDER (+13.8 Units) versus good fielding teams averaging <=0.6 errors/game over the last 2 seasons; 36-21 UNDER (+11.9 Units) versus good defensive catchers allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. Charlie Manuel is a solid 48-26 UNDER (+19.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs as the manager of Philadelphia. Take the UNDER
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on SD as they host SF. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 42-19 mark making 32.5 units since 2003. Play on all NL dogs with a money line of +100 to +150 with a team batting average of .245 or worse on the season and playing on Sunday. SF is just 32-60 (-24.3 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games with no home runs over the last 3 seasons. Bochy is also just 50-87 (-28.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. poor fielding teams - (turning 0.8 or less DP's/game) as the manager of SF. Take SD to continue their positive winning start.
GoodFella
TEX (+108) vs DET
Kevin Millwood takes the ball Sunday & will try to help the Rangers avoid a three-game sweep and their eighth straight loss at Comerica Park when they conclude their series against the Tigers on Sunday afternoon. Millwood has lost at least 15 pounds in the offseason due to cardio work and dietary changes. That regimen, emphasized by team president and Hall of Fame pitcher Nolan Ryan, appeared to pay dividends opening day, when Millwood threw 113 pitches over seven innings and allowed one run and five singles in seven innings of the Rangers' 9-1 victory."I think it made a big difference," Millwood said of his training program. "Even after I came out of the game, I felt like I could still go. That's a great sign, that on April 6 I can throw 100-something pitches and still feel like I've got something left." Millwood is 4-4 with a 3.91 ERA in 11 career starts versus the Tigers. He's 2-1 in three starts in Detroit, where he's never yielded more than three runs. Millwood has had great success in the past vs these 3 players... Carlos Guillen is (2-21 career off Millwood), Curtis Granderson is (5-22 career off Millwood) & Brandon Inge is (6-29 career off Millwood). Both Magglio Ordonez & Polanco have had success vs Millwood during their careers, so being able to limit the damage that they do on Sunday will be crucial for Millwood's success. Detroit counters with Edwin Jackson, who they obtained this off-season from Tampa Bay. For his career, Jackson is (1-2 3.25 ERA) vs the Rangers, allowing 11 walks & 20 hits in just 27 IP. I really like what I saw out of Millwood in his 1st start & I look for the Texas sticks to come back to life today, & for Texas to avoid the sweep today.
Andre Gomes
Pick: 2/3 units on Philadelphia ML
Pick: 1/3 units on Philadelphia RL -1.5 (Alternate Run Line)
The Phillies finally break the slump last night and pounded De La Rosa. For this game I don't think that they should be the underdogs as the pitchers' matchup is favourable to them in my opinion.
The Rockies send Cook to the mound and he is coming from a terrible outing against Arizona. Cook lasted just 2 1/3 innings as he didn't have his sinker and the ball was carrying. The result was 7 hits, 6 runs and only 1SO! Facing a powerful and confident lineup as the Phillies are right now will be tough for him especially when we take in account that Cook is 1-4 when starting against the Phillies with an ERA of 6.37 and a WHIP of 1.670.
Meanwhile the Phillies send the Right-hander Chan Ho Park to the mound. Park is really focused in doing a nice job in Philadelphia as he bypassed playing with South Korea in the World Baseball Classic just to pitch in the spring training. The results were fantastic as Park had 2.53 ERA and 25 SO for just 2 Walks! With a better lineup and with a better pitcher right now why in the hell the Phillies are the dogs in this contest? Take the Phillies in here.
Rob Homyak
5 UNITS on San Francisco Giants - Tim Lincecum
Ace righthander Tim Lincecum will take the mound for the Giants to start this game. Lincecum is 0-0 this season with a 9.00 ERA.
Starting this game for the Padres will be Chris Young. The righthander has a 3.00 ERA to go along with a 1-0 record this season.
Oddsmakers currently have the Giants listed as 115-moneyline favorites versus the Padres, while the game's total is sitting at 6?.
A four-run fifth inning lifted the Padres to a 6-3 doubling of the Giants on Saturday, as -170 favorites. The nine runs made it OVER the posted over/under (6.5).
Henry Blanco went 3-for-4 at the plate with two home runs for the Padres. Jake Peavy allowed three runs over 8 1-3 innings for the win, and Heath Bell notched his third save.
Fred Lewis had two hits and one RBI for the Giants, who were +150 underdogs. Jonathan Sanchez surrendered five runs over 4 2-3 innings in the loss.
Lincecum won the NL Cy Young Award going 18-5 with a major-league- leading 265 strikeouts last season. Against the Padres 3-1 with a 0.95 earned run average in eight starts. He was 3-0 against them last season with a 0.62 ERA in six starts.
Young is just 1-4 lifetime against the Giants with a 4.03 ERA in eight starts.
San Francisco hasn't been swept since September 14-16, 2007, was 13-5 against the Padres in 2008, including wins in seven of its nine visits to Petco Park.
Giants are 6-0 in Lincecums last 6 starts vs. Padres.
Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games.
Giants are 6-1 in their last 7 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Giants are 8-2 in their last 10 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Giants are 5-0 in Lincecums last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
Padres are 3-7 in Youngs last 10 starts as an underdog.
Padres are 4-12 in Youngs last 16 starts vs. National League West.
Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
SportsKingz
CUBS -130
METS -130
ST. LOUIS -135