SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(6) Philadelphia (41-41, 36-44-2 ATS) at (3) Orlando (59-23, 49-32-1 ATS)
Two teams entering the postseason on a downturn get together when the Magic play host to the 76ers at Amway Arena in the opener of a best-of-7 series.
Orlando pounded Charlotte 98-73 as a 3½-point home favorite Wednesday, snapping a three-game SU skid and a five-game ATS slide. The Magic went just 2-4 SU (1-5 ATS) in their last five starts, blowing a chance to catch Boston for the No. 2 seed. Orlando averaged 101 ppg in the regular season but reached the century mark just once in its last nine games. During that stretch, the Magic were held to 95 points or less seven times, including four games in the 80s.
Philadelphia edged No. 1 overall seed Cleveland 111-110 in overtime Wednesday to reach .500 for the regular season, but the Cavaliers rested LeBron James and three other starters, and the 76ers failed to cover as a three-point road chalk. Prior to that win, Philly had lost six in a row (1-5 ATS), including road setbacks to non-playoff teams New Jersey, Charlotte and Toronto. For the season, the Sixers have barely outscored their opposition (97.4-97.3), and they averaged about two buckets less than their opponents on the road (101.0-97.1).
Orlando is on a 4-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, winning all three contests this season. The Magic notched a 98-88 home win as a five-point chalk in early November, then won and cashed twice on the road, including a 106-100 win giving 1½ points on Feb. 28. Also, the Magic have posted three consecutive double-digit home wins over the Sixers. The host is 5-2 ATS in the last seven series battles, but the underdog is on a 23-11 ATS run.
The Magic were 32-9 at Amway Arena in the regular season (23-18 ATS), while Philly was 24-17 on the highway (18-23 ATS).
Orlando got past the opening round of the playoffs last year for the first time since 1996, but it lost to Detroit in five games in the conference semifinals, one series after Philly fell to the Pistons in six games in the first round.
Along with their current 1-5 ATS skid, the Magic are on pointspread dips of 0-6 against the Atlantic Division and 0-4 going on three or more days of rest. However, they finished the season with the league’s second-best ATS mark, trailing only the top-seeded Cavaliers.
The 76ers are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 starts against Southeast Division foes, but the ATS trends are all negative from there, including 0-5 overall (all in the East), 0-4 after a non-cover, 0-5 after yielding more than 100 points, 1-7 after a break of three days or more, 1-5 on the highway, 1-4 in first-round playoff games and 1-4 as a playoff pup.
The under for Orlando is on tears of 6-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 7-1 after a spread-cover, 8-2 at home and 22-8 with the Magic a home chalk. On the flip side, the over for Philadelphia is on rolls of 6-0 overall, 4-0 on the road, 6-0 against the Eastern Conference, 6-0 with the Sixers a ‘dog and 15-7 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
(5) Atlanta (43-39, 40-40-2 ATS) at (4) Miami (47-35, 43-38-1 ATS)
The Heat return to the playoffs after a one-year absence, opening on the road at Philips Arena against the Southeast Division rival Hawks, who are in the postseason for a second straight year after an eight-year drought.
Miami finished the season on a three-game ATS streak (2-1 SU), beating Detroit 102-96 in overtime Wednesday as a two-point home underdog to end the regular season. However, the Heat dropped seven of their final 12 starts (7-5 ATS). Miami has a narrow scoring advantage over its foes on the season, putting up 98.3 ppg and allowing 98.0, and on the highway, the Heat have averaged 95.8 ppg and given up 99.5.
Atlanta dropped a meaningless game to Memphis in its finale Wednesday, ending a four-game winning streak with a 98-90 setback and falling just short of cashing as 7½-point road ‘dog. The Hawks dropped their last three ATS decisions and finished the season on a 3-8 pointspread skid. Atlanta has put up 98.1 ppg for the season and has been a tick above that number at home, at 98.7 ppg. Defensively, the Hawks allowed 96.5 ppg overall but just 93 ppg at Philips Arena.
Atlanta went 3-1 SU in four meetings with Miami this season, with the two teams splitting the money, and the ATS winner has alternated in each of the last five clashes. The clubs actually squared off Tuesday, with the Hawks posting an 81-79 home victory and Miami cashing as a 9½-point underdog in a game Heat star Dwyane Wade sat out to rest for the playoffs. The Heat are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 clashes with the Hawks, including 7-2 ATS in their last nine trips to Atlanta.
Miami, which finished with the NBA’s worst record last year, went one-and-one in the playoffs in 2007, getting swept by the Bulls in the opening round one year after winning the NBA title. Atlanta pushed Boston to seven games in the first round last year, including going 3-0 SU and ATS at home in its first playoff appearances since 1999.
The Hawks are 31-10 at home (22-18-1 ATS), while Miami lost 26 of 41 roadies (20-20-1 ATS).
The Heat are on ATS upticks of 6-2 overall, 5-1 in the East, 4-1 in roadies and 4-1 after a spread-cover, but they also carry negative ATS streaks of 3-13 after a break of three days or more, 2-6-2 in first-round playoff action, 8-17-1 on Sunday and 20-42-3 after a SU win.
The Hawks are on an 8-3-1 ATS surge as a home chalk and are on a 5-0 ATS run laying less than five points. But they are also on spread-covering slides of 2-6 overall, 2-6 against the East, 0-4 against winning teams, 1-5 at home and 1-4 after a non-cover.
The over has hit in five of Miami’s last seven games and is 5-1 in Atlanta’s last six as a favorite. Otherwise, though, the under for the Heat is on stretches of 5-0 against winning teams, 7-2 with Miami a playoff pup and 5-2 after a SU win, and the under for the Hawks is on rolls of 11-5 at home, 4-0 against winning teams and 4-1 in Southeast Division play.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total stayed low in all four meetings this year, and the under is 5-1 in the last six contests in Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(8) Utah (48-34, 39-43 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (65-17, 43-39 ATS)
The Lakers begin their quest for a return trip to the NBA Finals when they open the postseason by hosting the Jazz at Staples Center in a rematch of a Western Conference semifinal series last year.
Los Angeles and Utah closed the regular season against each other Tuesday, with the Lakers rolling to a 125-112 victory as a six-point home favorite in a meaningless game for both squads. L.A. finished with the second-best best record in the NBA and finished 11 games better than any other team in the Western Conference. Phil Jackson’s team enters the postseason on a 7-1 SU run (5-3 ATS) and has won six straight home games and 13 of the last 14 at Staples Center, going only 7-7 ATS.
Utah struggled big-time down the stretch, losing seven of its last nine SU, while going just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games. The Jazz also went 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven road games and 2-9 SU and ATS in their last 11 as a visitor. The Jazz have given up an average of more than 110 ppg in their last 10 games, and for the season, they surrendered more than 106 ppg on the road.
These teams met in the second round of the playoffs last year, with Los Angeles winning the series in six games (3-2-1 ATS). This year, the Lakers also went 3-1 SU and ATS against the Jazz, and they’re 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meeting with Utah and 8-1 ATS in the last nine in Hollywood. Including the playoffs, the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine in this rivalry, and the host is 13-4-1 ATS in the last 18 series battles.
Utah has made the playoffs for the third straight year, getting beyond Round 1 in each of the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Lakers have reached the playoffs each of the last three seasons and 31 times in the last 33 years going back to 1977. After getting bounced in the first round in 2006 and 2007, they made it back to the NBA Finals last year, losing to Boston in six games. On their run to the Finals, Kobe Bryant and Co. swept the Nuggets in the first round, going 4-0 ATS.
For the season, the Lakers are 36-5 in their building but just 20-21 ATS. The Jazz were 15-26 on the road (17-24 ATS), including 1-12 SU and 2-11 ATS in 13 road games against Western Conference playoff teams.
L.A. has cashed in five straight first-round games since 2007 and is on additional ATS streaks of 4-1 overall (all against the Western Conference), 4-0 as a favorite, 5-1 when getting three or more days off and 8-3 after a SU win. However, the Lakers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six Sunday games and 7-16 ATS when laying 11 points or more, and they failed to cover in each of their last four playoff games when favored last season.
The Jazz are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 first-round postseason contests and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 when after getting three or more days off. After that, though, the ATS trends are all negative, including 2-10 overall, 1-6 on the highway, 2-14 as an underdog, 2-9 versus the Western Conference and 1-4 against the Pacific Division.
Utah is on “over” runs of 8-2 overall, 7-0 on the road, 6-0 against winning teams and 39-19-2 as an underdog. However, the under is 17-8 in its last 25 first-round playoff games and 5-2 in its last seven on Sunday. For the Lakers, the over is on streaks of 4-1 overall and 4-1 against the Northwest Division, but the under is 8-2 in its last 10 at home, 16-5 in its last 21 as a favorite and 7-0-1 on Sunday.
Lastly, the last six Jazz-Lakers battles have hurdled the total, and the over is 4-0 in the last four clashes in Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and OVER
(7) New Orleans (49-33, 35-45-2 ATS) at (2) Denver (54-28, 44-37-1 ATS)
The Nuggets, who made a big late-season surge to seize the Northwest Division title and No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, open the postseason at the Pepsi Center against the Hornets, who struggled late and fell to the seventh seed.
Denver got pounded in its regular-season finale Wednesday at Portland, losing 104-76 as an 8½-point underdog, but it was a meaningless game, and the Nuggets treated it as such. Despite the setback, Denver finished the season on a 14-3 SU tear (10-7 ATS), cracking the 100-point barrier in every start except the loss to the Blazers. For the season, the Nuggets averaged 104.3 ppg and allowed 100.9, but they had a slightly bigger cushion at home, putting up 107.8 and yielding 100.7.
New Orleans fell at San Antonio 105-98 in overtime Wednesday, but covered the number as a nine-point underdog to halt a 1-3 ATS skid. The Hornets went just 2-6 SU (3-5 ATS) in their last eight starts, including 2-4 SU (3-3 ATS) against playoff teams. New Orleans averaged 95.8 ppg on the year, just a shade better than its opponents (94.3), though the Hornets were outscored by a similar margin on the road, averaging 95.3 ppg and allowing 96.9. In the last five games, New Orleans has given up 97.6 ppg and scored 91.6 ppg.
These teams split their four meetings this season, with each winning once at home and once on the road SU and ATS. Most recently, Denver prevailed 101-88 as a four-point road pup on March 25, ending a 4-0 ATS run by the favorite in this rivalry. Still, the Hornets have covered in five the last seven clashes overall and are on a 7-2 ATS roll in Denver. Finally, the road team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
The Nuggets went 33-8 at home (23-17-1 ATS), while New Orleans 21-20 as a visitor (16-24-1 ATS).
The Hornets bowed out to the Spurs in seven games in last year’s Western Conference semifinals, and the Nuggets were swept in four games SU and ATS by the Lakers in the first round. Denver hasn’t advanced past the first round of the playoffs since 1994, losing six consecutive series and going 4-23 SU during this stretch.
The Nuggets are on positive ATS streaks of 8-3 against the West, 4-1 laying points, 29-9-1 as a chalk of five to 10½ points and 7-3 against winning teams. However, they are on a 3-15 ATS plunge in their last 18 first-round playoff games and are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 starts following a non-cover.
The Hornets have gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 conference quarterfinal games, but they are otherwise on pointspread dives of 7-17 as an underdog, 6-16 as a road pup, 7-19-1 after a spread-cover, 2-6 after a break of three or more days and 1-5 against the Northwest Division.
The over for Denver is on rolls of 6-2 at home and 7-3 with the Nuggets favored, but the under has gone 18-3 in Denver’s last 21 conference quarterfinal starts. The under for New Orleans is on streaks of 14-5 overall, 8-1-1 against teams with a winning home record and 7-1-1 when the Hornets are a playoff ‘dog. Finally, the last two regular-season meetings between these two teams stayed low following a 3-0 “over” run.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (8-5) at Chicago Cubs (7-4)
The Cubs and Cardinals wrap up a four-game series with a nationally televised battle at Wrigley Field, with southpaw Ted Lilly (2-0, 3.86 ERA) slated to toe the slab for Chicago against Todd Wellemeyer (1-1, 4.50).
One day after a late-inning two-run Alfonso Soriano home run lifted the Cubs over St. Louis, Chicago got another dramatic two-run blast on Saturday, this one from Aramis Ramirez in the bottom of the 11th inning to give the host a 7-5 victory. The Cubs are 57-27 in their last 84 at home, 9-3 in their last 12 on Sunday, 6-2 in their last eight against St. Louis and 19-8 in their last 27 Wrigley Field showdowns with the Cardinals.
Despite losing the last two games in this series, St. Louis is still 7-3 in its last 10. Also, going back to last season, the Redbirds are on solid runs of 14-5 overall, 5-2 against Central division foes, 4-0 against left-handed starters and 21-9 on Saturday. However, Tony LaRussa’s squad is now 6-16 in its last 22 road games.
Lilly is coming off a 4-0 home victory over Colorado, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning. He finished allowing just the single hit and two walks while striking out eight, a much sharper performance than his first outing when he yielded five runs and eight hits over five innings in an 11-6 win at Houston. Chicago is unbeaten in Lilly’s last six starts overall, and with the lefty on the hill the Cubbies are on further runs of 22-8 overall, 20-8 at home, 6-1 versus St. Louis, 12-2 against winning teams, 5-0 as a favorite and 5-0 versus the N.L. Central.
Lilly is 6-2 with a 2.99 ERA in 11 career starts against the Cardinals, going 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA in five outings last season. Lilly has pitched at least six innings in each of his last 10 starts versus St. Louis, giving up three earned runs or fewer in eight of those contests.
Like Lilly, Wellemeyer bounced back nicely from a poor 2009 debut, scattering seven hits and a run over seven innings en route to a 2-1 road win at Arizona. Despite that effort, St. Louis is just 3-6 in the right-hander’s last nine trips to the mound, even though he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of those nine contests. The Redbirds have also dropped four straight Wellemeyer starts on Sunday, but they’re 4-0 in his last four as a road underdog.
Wellemeyer made four starts against the Cubs last year, allowing three earned runs or fewer in each contest. He’s 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in five career appearances (four starts) against Chicago, and he went 4-2 with a 2.98 ERA in 14 road starts last season.
The under is 6-0 in Lilly’s last six home starts, 6-2 in Wellemeyer’s last eight overall and 4-0 in Wellemeyer’s last four on the road.
For St. Louis, the over is on streaks of 13-3 overall (5-0 last five), 5-0 on the road, 9-2 as a road underdog and 10-3 against Central division rivals, while the over for Chicago is on stretches of 5-1-1 overall (all at home), 5-0 against the N.L. Central. Also, six of the last eight meetings between these teams at Wrigley Field – including all three in this series – have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY (Total Of The Month)
Boston/ Baltimore Over 10:
Baltimore's road games have averaged 16.8 rpg and they do come in 3rd in scoring at 6.2 rpg. John Lester has strugggled out the gate with a 9.00 ERA in his 2 starts and should have problems with this strong Baltimore offense. Koji Uehara has a 7.20 ERA in his 2 starts and a 2-0 record in those starts and that would indicate high scoring games (15.5 rpg in his 2 starts). He will be facing a Boston team that is starting to score as they have averaged 7.3 rpg in their last 4 games. This one should be easy.
4 UNIT PLAY
Cleveland/ NY Yanks Over 10.5
AJ Burnett has a 9.00 ERA in his last 4 starts vs the Tribe, while Pavano has been rocked in his first 2 starts (16.71 ERA). The Yanks were blasted last night 22-4 and you can expect the big bats will be out for revenge. Cleveland has scored 37 runs in the first 3 games of this series and should continue to score vs Burnett. Easy over here.
3 UNIT PLAY
Texas/ Kansas City Over 10.5:
Do we see a pattern here with the Overs. LOL Texas has a very powerful offense and they have been held to just 3 runs in their last 2 games. The Rangers are still scoring 8.1 rpg at home this year and they should breakout again vs today's starter. Kyle Davies does have a 2.13 ERA to start the year for the Royals, but he has a career 5.52 ERA, including a 5.89 ERA in 4 starts vs the rangers and an 8.03 ERA in 3 starts at Rangers Ballpark. The Royals should be able to grab plenty of runs vs Padilla, who has a 10.00 ERA in his 2 starts this year and he does have a 4.79 ERA in his last 13 starts at Rangers Ballpark and he owns a 4.,79 ERA in 4 career starts vs the Royals. Last night just 2 runs were score, but Ranger home games have still scored 14.5 rpg. I see this one hitting that mark as well.
2 UNIT PLAY
Cincinnati -119 over HOUSTON: Edinson Volquez will out duel the rookie as Cincinnati gets payback for last night's 7-0 loss.
1 UNIT PLAY
NY METS -157 over Milwaukee
DAVE COKIN
ATLANTA BRAVES / PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Take PITTSBURGH PIRATES
The Pirates are off to a good start, and it's thanks to some excellent pitching. Left Zach Duke has now allowed just 11 earned runs in his last 49 innings going back to last season, and he's worth a shot here against the Braves. Javier Vazquez was terrific last start for Atlanta with 12 K's, and when he's on, he's very tough. But the Braves offense is in hibernation right now, so I'm on the Pittsburgh side today.
JIM FEIST
COLORADO ROCKIES / LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Take Over
LA has a strong offense but a suspect pitching staff. Colorado starter Ubaldo Jimenez has a tendency to allow a lot of free passes, which is a killer against strong offensive teams, walking 9 in 10 innings this season. Manny Ramirez belted his first two home runs of the season at Dodger Stadium, but also made a couple of defensive gaffes that were nearly as memorable, among them a mistimed dive in left field that resulted in a two-run triple in a 9-5 win. LA is on a 6-2 run over the total and is forced to go with shaky James McDonald and his 13.50 ERA. Look for another offensive show in Dodger stadium, play the Rockies/Dodgers over the total.
Cajun Sports
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
PNC Park will be the site of today’s National League battle between the host Pittsburgh Pirates and the visiting Atlanta Braves. The Pirates will be looking to sweep the three-game series from the slumping Atlanta Braves and if they do it will be the first time in 15 years they have accomplished that feat. The Pirates have seen a dramatic improvement in their starting pitching we realize it’s early in the season but they lead the NL with a combined ERA of 2.63 after having the worst ERA in the majors last season with a 5.08. Pittsburgh will send left-hander Zach Duke to the bump with his 2-0 record and 0.59 ERA on the season. The left-hander allowed three runs, one earned in 6 1-3 innings of a 7 to 4 win over St. Louis on April 8, then threw a four-hitter in a 7 to 0 victory over Houston on Monday. Duke, who didn't win his second game until his eighth start in 2008, struck out five and walked two against the Astros. Duke was 5-14 last season with an ERA of 4.82 but he has looked great to start the 2009 campaign. Although he struggled last season he went 1-0 against the Braves posting an ERA of 1.54 in his two trips to the bump versus Atlanta. In five career starts against Atlanta he is 3-2 (teams record) with a 2.75 ERA. Atlanta will send Javier Vazquez to the hill with his 0-1 record and 4.50 ERA this season, the right-hander is 0-1 in three career starts at PNC Park with an ERA of 7.56. MLB Teams are 52-34 W/L (+1230) if playing at home and it’s the final game of a series. Play ON MLB NL teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a team that averages =5.00, starting a pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest, 70-26 W/L (72.9%) for +47.4 units. Play the host as they get the sweep over the Braves on Sunday and cash the winning ticket.
Graded Selection: 2* Pittsburgh Pirates 5 Atlanta Braves 4
Marc Lawrence
Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers
The Rangers conclude their weekend set with the Royals when they take on Kyle Davies at The Ballpark in Arlington. That's been good news for Texas, for sure, considering Davies' 0-4 career team start mark with a 5.89 ERA. With the Rangers 9-3 their last twelve games as a host in this series, look for more of the same here today.
Play on: Texas
VEGAS EXPERTS
New Orleans Hornets at Denver Nuggets
Road teams posted three outright wins (all as underdogs of course) on day one of the NBA Playoffs, which is not the norm. However, it could be a sign of things to come as after the Cavs and Lakers, the talent disparity from team to team amongst the other 14 contenders is minimal. In two games in Denver this season, New Orleans posted an outright win and just a five-point loss. Both of those performances would qualify as them staying within the number here.
Play on: New Orleans
Craig Trapp
St Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
If anyone thinks that early season baseball does not matter then you better not miss tonight's ESPN Sunday Night Rivalry Game. Craig could not help himself he had to have his free pick in the rivalry game between St Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. Lets look at the records and trends between these two.
Records:
St Louis Cardinals 8-5 Wellemeyer 1-1 (4.5 ERA)
Chicago Cubs 7-4 Lilly 2-0 (3.86 ERA)
Betting Trends:
-Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
-Cardinals are 1-4 in Wellemeyers last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
-Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
-Cubs are 22-8 in Lilly's last 30 starts.
Lilly has been so good for the CUBS at Wrigley Field. Today the Cubs are riding a huge momentum extra innings win in Saturday's match up. These teams have split the first two games and today's evening ESPN game will settle the score. Today Lilly shuts down a hot hitting STL team and the bats of the Cubs come alive. This one is not going to be close. SCORE CHC 7 - STL 3
Scott Spreitzer
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Over
I mentioned the other night that Baltimore pitcher Koji Uehara is going to be in trouble in good hitting parks. He throws to contact and doesn't get many strikeouts (only three this year in 10 innings of work). He allowed two homers in Arlington that night, and watched his ERA swell to 7.20 this season. Today he's got to face the Red Sox in Fenway Park! Jon Lester of Boston is off to a horrible start. He?s not comfortable on the mound right now and opponents are just teeing off. Lester's ERA is 9.00 so far, with an ugly WHIP of 1.82 (and three homers allowed). Baltimore's offense has been on fire this year, averaging better than six runs per game entering the weekend. Both offenses are likely to do a lot of damage vs. these pitchers in this park. And, as we saw Friday Night in this series, either offense can do most of the work all by themselves. These two teams play here again Monday, so there are no getaway distractions that could reduce scoring. The Over in the Baltimore/Boston game is the play.
Big Al Mcmordie
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Over
At 1:35pm our member selection is on the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies 'over' the total. It hasn't been the kind of start that the Phillies or their fans had hoped for to defend their title. Not only are they hovering around the .500 mark early on, but they have what appears to be two much-improved teams in the division this year in the Marlins and Braves, both of whom seem to have made major strides in improving their pitching (something the Phils can't say at this point). Consider that the player who came out of Spring training as the winner of the #5 spot in the Philly rotation is none other than Chan Ho Park. Park teased the Phils by having a fantastic spring training, looking like he did when he pitched for the Dodgers. But in his first regular season start against the Rockies, Park didn't last four innings and got hammered for seven hits and five ER. At least the Phillies' bats are heating up quite a bit lately, and the Padres are actually scoring quite a few runs this season too, as they are sixth in the NL in runs scored (compared to 2008 when they finished last in the Majors in runs scored with only 637). Take the 'over'.
Jeff Benton
My seven-day free-play winning streak came to a halt Saturday, as the Reds got blitzed in Houston. Still, I’m 16-7 over the last 23 days with freebies, and we’ll get back on track Sunday by shifting to the NBA and taking the Hornets plus the points at Denver.
Denver had an unbelievable regular season, and it has Chauncey Billups to thank for that. But the fact remains that the Nuggets will take the court with a ton of pressure tonight, as this team has gotten bounced out of the first round of the playoffs six straight times going back to 1995, including each of the last five years. During this run of postseason futility, the Nuggets are 4-23 SU, including getting swept by the Lakers in four games last year. Going back to 1989, Denver has lost eight of nine first-round series, going 7-31 SU!
You can’t tell me that something like that won’t be on the players’ minds when they take the floor for this game. On top of that, the Hornets are hardly a gimme for Denver. Yes, they didn’t have quite the success they had last year, thanks in most part to key injuries, but New Orleans still won 49 games (only five fewer than the Nuggets) and it still has the most dynamic point guard in the game in Chris Paul (a guy that can absolutely neutralize Billups).
The Hornets have matched up well against the Nuggets, too. The teams split four meetings this year and have split the last 10 contests, but New Orleans has gotten the money in five of the last seven matchups, including three of the last four in Denver. In fact, the Hornets are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings overall, 7-2 ATS in their last nine trips to the Mile High City, and the road team has covered in 11 of the last 16 series matchups. Throw in Denver’s 3-15 ATS record in its last 18 first-round playoff games, and I’ll take these significant points in what I believe will be a very tightly contested game throughout.
5♦ NEW ORLEANS
Matt Rivers
For Sunday take back this number with the Indians.
I will continue to fade the Yankees as they are just not a good team right now. Yes AJ Burnett has been unreal this season and clearly could shut down anybody after two sparkling outings as a New Yorker but the way the Yankee offense has been playing, aka struggling, without Arod I just do not think that Joe Girardi's squad can be laying such a price in any pitching matchup and that includes a bad Carl Pavano against Burnett.
Pavano is probably at the end of the road in his career which will be very underachieving but he is a former Yankee who would love nothing better than come back to the Bronx and shove it up his former team's you know what. As long as Pavano does not completely implode, which I don't think he will, I will take my chances for sure with a lineup led by a total stud in Grady Sizemore along with Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, Mark DeRosa and a few others. No doubt the Tribe should have saved some of those runs from yesterday but at this price what the hey!?!?
Let's face it, these Yankees continue to get some clout because they are the "Yankees". As I have said since the season began this team just does not scare me at all. Mark Teixeira is powerful and great but that is about it, save maybe Robinson Cano who has been swinging the bat well. Jeter and Damon are extremely mediocre and other guys like Gardner, Molina and Ransom are not typical Yankees and guys that can go 0fer at the drop of a hat.
Burnett is rolling and could shut down Cleveland today. But the price is a bit too high and I'll continue to go against those Yankees here.
Jake Timlin
Much like the Cavaliers yesterday I don’t expect for the Lakers to be challenged at home by the eighth seeded Utah Jazz. Not when the Lakers will more than enjoy playing at home where they shine and with the Jazz sucking on the road. You see while I like the Lakers who have won 7 of their last 8 games, including a 13 point win against the Jazz on Tuesday this match-up is more about the failures of Utah. I mean given that Utah is an awful 1-12 SU and 2-11 ATS this year on the road against Western Conference playoff teams it’s tough to imagine anything short of a blowout here today. After all with the Lakers going 3-1 SU/ATS in this year’s series mixed in with the Jazz going 2-10 ATS to end the season today’s game has blowout written all over it. So making their own statement to open the playoffs I look for the Lakers to flirt with a twenty something win.
PICK: Los Angeles Lakers
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
OK, we were off yesterday as the Celtics piss down there collective leg and let the Bulls go into Boston and punk the defending world champs.
We take a loss, but that’s fine as we’re getting back on the winning track today as we’re switching gears and heading out to the diamond where we’re taking the Arizona Diamondbacks as a dog on the road at the San Francisco Giants.
After dropping Game 1 of this series on Friday, the D’backs come through with a strong 2-0 win over defending Cy Young champ Tim Lincecum.
Today, Arizona will make it 2 in a row against the Giants.
Including yesterday’s win the Diamondbacks have taken 5 of 6 against the Giants and are battling a San Francisco team that has won only one of its last eight games overall and has won only 5 of its last 21 against the NL West.
Consider also that Giants scheduled starting pitcher Randy Johnston is 0-2 this season and has given up 11 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings of work as the Giants have been outscored in each outing by a total of 15-3.
Today, Arizona will light up Johnson and get over easy in this one. Take the Diamondbacks on the road in this one.
3♦ DIAMONDBACKS
Craig Davis
Another day, another dollar on a perfect sweep of the card. 2-0 again Saturday and there’s no one hotter. Even Dallas got us off to a good start on our series play with the Mavs.
Today, we make it 10 FREE PLAY WINNERS in 15 days on the Miami Heat. Yes, I’m fully aware that the Atlanta Hawks play better at home than they do on the road, and the Heat have really struggled away from Miami, but I simply have a gut feeling Miami is due for a good game on the road. Chicago did it. Dallas did it. Houston did it… so Miami can do it, and I believe they will today. Miami has covered 6 of their last 8 overall and 7 of their last 9 when playing in Atlanta… they’re also 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference teams, 4-1 ATS in their last five as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Dwayne Wade is the X-factor and will do whatever it takes to get the Game 1 win. Play the Heat plus the small number on the road as another easy free play winner.
2♦ MIAMI