Drew Gordon
Milwaukee +145 at NY METS
Simply too much value to look any other way than the Brewers in this contest. Sorry Mets-backers, but call-up Nelson Figueroa doesn't scare anyone, and that includes a Brewers team desperate for win. True, the Brew Crew has lost 6 of their last 7, but looking over today's match up, they'll have more than their fair share of oppurtunities to avoid the sweep.
First off, while I'll admit Jeff Suppan hasn't looked good thus far this season, its no secret he's been rock-solid against the Mets in his career, going 3-2 with a 3.63 ERA in 9 starts. He was also given an extra 2 days rest before this start, allowing for an extra throwing session to get his head on straight. While we don't expect Suppan to come out and lockdown this Mets offense, he can and will outpitch Figueroa, that much you can count on.
Speaking of Figueroa, while he did face the Brewers 3 times last season (once as a starter), going 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA in 9 innings pitched, let's not get too carried away. This is the same guy who went 3-3 with a lofty 4.57 ERA in 16 games last season. Are you really willing to pay this price to back a pitcher with those kind of numbers?!
Finally, the fact the Brewers have lost TWO 1-run games this series only adds to their motivation this afternoon. Both games were razor close, and based on the fact they got shutout by Santana Saturday, I'm looking for them to bring out the bats this afternoon. Look guys, in the end, the Brewers have a strong pitching edge, and more than enough motivation to get the "W" today at Citi Field... Let's grab that plus money Sunday afternoon!
Take Milwaukee behind Suppan over the NY Mets and Figueroa in this MLB match up.
2♦ MILWAUKEE
Chris Jordan
Miami at ATLANTA
These two should have no trouble keeping the total low, as we’ve seen this clash stay under in four straight meetings overall (all this season) and in five of the last six in Atlanta. Though they both can score some points, they’re defensive by nature. And when you have a pair of rivals, like these Southeast teams, you can expect a slow-down tempo and physical battle til the end.
In those four unders this season, these two teams tallied 160, 174, 174 and 160 … notice the similarities there. Very consistent with these numbers, and that average of 167 points is more than 20 points less than the posted total. Let’s play this one low.
1♦ UNDER Hawks/Heat
St. Louis at CHICAGO -130
Wrapping up a four-game series, I’ll play the Cubs with southpaw Ted Lilly, who comes in with a perfect 2-0 start to the season to go along with his respectable 3.86 ERA.
Two straight dramatic wins will have the Cubs momentum-driven for this nationally televised game, not to mention their winning runs of 57-27 at home, 9-3 on Sundays, 6-2 against St. Louis and 19-8 at Wrigley Field against the Cardinals.
Lilly was rock solid in a 4-0 home victory over Colorado, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning and finishing up by allowing one hit and two walks while striking out eight. Chicago is unbeaten in the left-hander’s last six starts overall, and with Lilly on the mound the Cubbies are on further runs of 22-8 overall, 20-8 at home, 6-1 against St. Louis, 12-2 against teams with a winning record, 5-0 when he’s the installed chalk and 5-0 when taking on N.L. Central foes.
Lilly rolls into this primetime affair with a 6-2 mark and 2.99 ERA in 11 career starts against the Cardinals, including a perfect 3-0 mark with a 3.06 ERA in five outings last season. Lilly has been steallar against the Redbirds, pitching at least six innings in each of his last 10 starts against them, giving up three earned runs or fewer in eight of those contests.
1♦ CUBS (LIST Lilly)
Sports Gambling Hotline
Utah at LA LAKERS -11
The Jazz really struggled down the stretch, as Utah comes to the City of Angels having lost 7 of their last 9 straight up, covering just twice in their last dozen games.
On Wednesday, the Lakers blew open a close game at the half to defeat the fading Jazz, 125-112 as the 6-point favorite. We will lay the points with the # 1 seeded Lakers, as we smell a blowout at the Staples Center this Sunday afternoon.
The Lakers won 7 of their final 8 games, covering their last pair, and 4 of their last 5.
Including the playoffs, the home team is 13-4-1 against the spread the last 18 times these teams have played.
Utah may be able to steal a win at home in this series, but with a 17-24 season spread mark on the road, and a dismal 4-10-1 spread mark the last 15 times they have faced the Lakers, we have to lay the double-digits with the host.
Play on the Lakers.
4♦ LA LAKERS
Karl Garrett
Utah at LA LAKERS -11
The G-Man sizes up another playoff total as his freebie this Sunday, and I expect the points to add up at the Staples Center this afternoon when the Lakers hos the Jazz.
These teams closed the regular season on Wednesday in this building, going OVER the posted total of 206.5 points. That makes it 6 straight in this rivalry - playoffs included - OVER the total.
Dating back to the regular season, Utah has played 8 of their last 10 HIGH, while the LA Lakers landed on the UPSIDE in 4 of their closing 5 regular season affairs.
Until these teams prove to me they are interested in playing a half-court, defensive battle, the G-Man will stick with the dominant OVER trends, and play the HIGH at the Staples Center on Sunday.
Take Utah and the Lakers to go OVER the posted total in Game One.
2♦ OVER
Bobby Maxwell
Utah +11 at L.A. LAKERS
We're in the NBA playoffs for a FREE winner today, grabbing the points and playing the Jazz as they visit the Lakers for Game 1 of this Western Conference series.
There's no doubt the Lakers have more talent than the Jazz, but this Utah team is seemingly built for playoff basketball and we're going to grab all these points being offered today and play the Jazz.
Utah struggled down the stretch and lost seven of its last nine. They went 1-6 in their last seven roadies and 2-9 in their last 11. But again, this team is made for the playoffs. When the tempo slows down and point guards dominate, Utah is well-armed for the postseason.
Deron Williams is one of our favorite point guards as he has all the tools, including an extra gear to blow by his man. Utah has gotten out of the opening round of the playoffs in each of the last three years and it's because Williams and Boozer run a mean pick-and-roll and they can rebound the basketball and defend the opposition.
The Jazz are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 first-round playoff games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 when they get three or more days off. So they like the rest and they know how to prepare for a team.
We're playing the Jazz today and look for the score to be kept low and them to frustrate the Lakers with that pick-and-roll. Play Utah.
2♦ UTAH
John Ryan
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Pirates as they host the Braves slated to start at 1:35 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 70-26 making 47.4 units since 1997. Play on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that is a poor NL offensive team scoring =5.00 and starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest. Atlanta is 8-20 (-16.0 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons; Atlanta is 5-15 (-14.3 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Take the Pirates.
Nelly
Chicago White Sox + over Tampa Bay
The Rays put together an incredible season in 2008 but 2009 has been a bit of a struggle so far. Tampa Bay was a dominant team at home last season but is just 2-4 in home games so far this season. The White Sox have taken two out of three so far in this series and there is great motivation for Chicago after being eliminated from the playoffs by the Rays last season. Neither team's offense is off to a great start but the White Sox have actually been a much better hitting team away from home, batting .289 against right-handers in road games. Gavin Floyd had an awful outing in Detroit his last start, allowing seven walks which led to six runs. Floyd did pick up the win in that game though and he may have lost some focus as the Sox built a big lead. Floyd's first start of the season was excellent however and he went 17-8 with strong numbers last season. Chicago should have an edge in the bullpen and as the Rays are 0-2 in games decided by relievers this season. The Rays are overvalued based on the great home numbers and Matt Garza has not shown the consistency needed to be valued as a front-line starter.
Rocketman
St Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
St Louis comes in at 8-5 on the season while the Chicago Cubs are now 7-4 this year. St Louis bullpen has a 5.02 ERA overall and a 5.49 ERA on the road this season. Chicago Cubs bullpen has a 3.55 ERA overall and a 3.14 ERA at home this year. Lilly is 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA overall this year and 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA at home this season. Lilly is 6-2 with a 2.99 ERA overall vs St Louis since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago Cubs tonight!
DUNKEL
Utah at LA Lakers
The Lakers open up against a Jazz team that is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games as an underdog. Los Angeles is the pick (-11) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 15. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-11).
Game 709-710: Utah at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 113.539; LA Lakers 128.548
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 15; 212
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 11; 210
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-11); Over
Game 711-712: Philadelphia at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 114.230; Orlando 122.527
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 8 1/2; 187
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 9 1/2; 191
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+9 1/2); Under
Game 713-714: Miami at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 116.969; Atlanta 124.359
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 7 1/2; 183
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 187
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4 1/2); Under
Game 715-716: New Orleans at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 115.442; Denver 126.151
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 10 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 6; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6); Under
MLB
St. Louis at Chicago Cubs
The Cardinals look to bounce back from back-to-back losses and build on their 4-0 mark in Todd Wellemeyer's last 4 starts as an underdog. St. Louis is the underdog pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+125).
Game 951-952: Milwaukee at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Suppan) 14.323; NY Mets (Figueroa) 15.462
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 11
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-155); Over
Game 953-954: San Diego at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Geer) 15.614; Philadelphia (Park) 14.751
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 11
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 955-956: Florida at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Volstad) 15.570; Washington (Cabrera) 15.635
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Florida (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+130); Over
Game 957-958: Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Vazquez) 13.793; Pittsburgh (Duke) 15.061
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Under
Game 959-960: Cincinnati at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Volquez) 13.950; Houston (Paulino) 15.115
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+120); Under
Game 961-962: Arizona at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Scherzer) 12.638; San Francisco (Johnson) 14.107
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-125); Over
Game 963-964: Colorado at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 16.021; LA Dodgers (McDonald) 14.494
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+100); Under
Game 965-966: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 16.650; Cubs (Lilly) 15.645
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-135); No Total
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+125); N/A
Game 967-968: Oakland at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 16.122; Toronto (Romero) 14.448
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+115); Under
Game 969-970: Cleveland at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Pavano) 15.699; NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.176
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-225); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-225); Under
Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 15.662; Tampa Bay (Garza) 16.013
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-165); Under
Game 973-974: Baltimore at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Uehara) 14.346; Boston (Lester) 15.350
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-230); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-230); Under
Game 975-976: LA Angels at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Loux) 14.318; Minnesota (Perkins) 15.204
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-155); Under
Game 977-978: Kansas City at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davies) 15.529; Texas (Padilla) 16.093
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 12
Vegas Line: Texas (-110); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-110); Over
Game 979-980: Detroit at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 14.881; Seattle (Silva) 16.524
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-120); Over
NHL
New Jersey at Carolina
The Hurricanes look to build on their 11-1 record in their last 12 games as a home favorite between -110 and -150. Carolina is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Hurricanes favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-145).
Game 81-82: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.765; Philadelphia 12.450
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-130); Under
Game 83-84: Vancouver at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.858; St. Louis 11.180
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-120); 5
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+100); Under
Game 85-86: New Jersey at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 10.407; Carolina 12.404
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-145); Over
Game 87-88: Anaheim at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 10.642; San Jose 11.240
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-270); 5
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-270); Under
Undefeated's tools picks now on a 17 wins and 7 losses
run after the upset in Portland last night. :'( 😡
Today's pick is: NBA - Atlanta vs. Miami Under 187 8)
==========================================
Free Selection from Totals4U
Sunday's free selection: Detroit/Seattle under 9 1/2
==========================================
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
247 - 160 run 60 %
Sunday Fla Marlins
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EZ'S FREE SELECTION
Game: Utah Jazz @ Los Angeles Lakers
(710) Los Angeles Lakers -11.5
The Jazz have been just horrible down the stretch of the season as a road
underdog and I look for that trend to continue here. The Lakers will make a
statement that they are the team to beat with a blowout win in game one
of this series. Lay the points.
2009 Free Selections Record 59-48 (55.1%)
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
STL (-110) vs VAN
here's great anticipation over the St. Louis Blues' first home playoff game in five years. Now, all they've got to do is slip a few pucks past Roberto Luongo. The Vancouver Canucks' goalie was the unquestioned star the first two games of the Western Conference quarterfinal series, allowing only one goal while stopping 55 shots. He's coming off his first career playoff shutout in a 3-0 victory Friday night that gave the West's third seed a 2-0 series lead heading into Game 3 Sunday night; that being said, I look for the Blues to come out swining in this one! St. Louis is 13-9 (+10.1 units) when playing against a winning team in the second half of the season; play on St. Louis!
Vegasflyer Sports
Mike Hillin
Free Plays 8-5 cur streak L1
Pittsburgh Pirates
Dave Malinsky
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: Over
It is going to be a nice “summer” day in San Francisco, with the first pitch temperature in the upper 70's and a slight breeze blowing out to right field. That does not call for the cheap “8’s” that the betting markets reduced this game to in the early trading (you should be able to find one at no worse than -105).
Randy Johnson is off to an 0-2/11.42 start, and at this stage we have to wonder if that is all that there is left. He last only 8.2 innings through those two games, laboring through 175 pitches to merely get that far, and Mike Cameron, Yovani Gallardo (!), Orlando Hudson and Andre Ethier have already homered against him. And while his statistics were decent LY take note of how they got put together – of the 95 pitchers that worked at least 150 innings, his difficulty of batters faced was dead last at #95 (as always, we use On Base + Slugging as our preferred measure). Now he faces a lineup that is most familiar with his ways, and he will have a difficult time getting deep into this one. That opens the door against a mediocre Giant bullpen, one that also has particular late-game issues with closer Brian Wilson already throwing 41 pitches in working each game of this series.
Arizona counters with hard-throwing Max Scherzer, for a while. But maybe not for long. Scherzer only got 8.2 innings of work in the Cactus League, and went 4.2 in a AAA start and five frames in his lone outing with the Diamondbacks. That does not have him anywhere near the kind of rhythm and conditioning needed to make more than a couple of passes through a lineup, and note that he has yet to pitch beyond the 6th inning in his Major League career.
There are multiple ways to win this one – hitters that have been had-cuffed so far in this series can get some good early swings in the warm conditions against the fastballs that they are going to see, but even if Johnson and Scherzer can be effective at the start we do not expect either to be around when the 7th inning takes place. That means late opportunities against middle relief corps that are unimposing, and it does not ask us for much at all to top this low Total.
RJ Robbins
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Over
Were going to take the Over this afternoon. Detroit is 20-10 Over +9.8 Units vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the L2 seasons. Seattle has gone over 29-15 revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less over the L3 seasons.
ALEX SMART
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Under
The St.Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Todd Wellemeyer after a no so pretty opening day assignment came back with a top notch effort in his last outing. The right hander went seven innings against the Diamondbacks on Monday, allowing seven hits, and one earned run. He struck out four and did not walk a single batter. I'm betting on him riding the momentum of that effort into this Sunday night tilt.
Meanwhile,southpaw Ted Lilly in the Cubs' home opener, looked strong allowing the Rockies just one hit over 6 2/3 innings on his way to to a easy win. The veteran hurler struck out eight in that tilt and is now 2-0 on the season. I expect more of the same from him in this spot , vs a team that he owns a 3-0 , 3.06 ERA career record. Lilly has pitched well in his career vs the Cardinals, registering a 6-2 record and a 2.99 ERA in 11 career starts. He's 4-0 the last seven outings vs St. Louis.
With two viable starters on the hill tonight, a low scoring pitcher duel is a good bet.
Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 6-0 in Lillys last 6 home starts. Under is 6-0 in Wellemeyers last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.