BEN BURNS
Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees
PICK: New York Yankees
This price is too expensive to qualify as one of my guaranteed selections. That said, as far as large baseball favorites go, I feel this one has an excellent shot at cashing.
Burnett is coming off a huge year and we was dominant down the stretch. He's carried that momentum into this season, having gone 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and an awesome 0.90 WHIP through two starts as a Yankee. He's already recorded 15 K's while walking only two. Burnett was always a "Yankee Killer" and this is his home debut. It's safe to say that he'll be fired up.
Conversely, Pavano comes in with an 0-2 record and an awful 16.71 ERA and 2.429 WHIP. He hasn't been very good for years and he was a bust with the Yankees. He won't be received well by the Yankee faithful.
In addition to having a significant advantage on the mound, the Yankees figure to have a strong "motivational" advantage. That's because they just got crushed by a score of 22-4 yesterday. Note that the Yankees are a highly profitable 114-57 (+25.3) the last 171 times that they came off a game in which they allowed double-digits. That includes a 24-12 mark in that situation the past couple of seasons. Consider laying the wood.
LARRY NESS
Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Texas Rangers
The Rangers will try an avoid a three-game home sweep at the hands of the KC Royals this afternoon in Arlington. Gil Meche pitched six scoreless innings in Friday night's 12-3 series-opening victory and then Zack Greinke followed with a seven-hit shutout Saturday night, extending his personal scoreless streak to 34 innings dating to last season (can't make that up!). KC is hitting only .238 on the season but the Royals have outscored opponents 54-17 in winning five of their last six games. They'll face Vicente Padilla on Sunday, who is looking to rebound from one of the worst outings of his career in his last start. He gave up seven runs, 11 hits and one walk in 3.1 innings of Monday night's 10-9 home loss to Baltimore. That leaves Padilla 1-1 with a 10.00 ERA, as he won his first start of 2009 by yielding three ERs in 5.2 innings of an 8-5 win over the Indians. Padilla is in his 11th season and won 14 games in consecutive seasons for the Phillies (2002 and 2003) plus 15 games in '06 for the Rangers and 14 games for them last year. I love what one fantasy site said about him just recently. "Padilla is playing for a new contract (his current one is for $12 million!) and while he won't likely finish with impressive numbers, he still has a good chance of recording double-digit victories for a potent offensive team." I'll add that Padilla's career mark is 87-80 with a 4.35 ERA. How about that being worthy of a $12 million contract? Now I KNOW you can't make that up! Anyway, it may sound like I'm going against Padilla and the Rangers here, but I'm not. The Royals haven't completed a road sweep of the Rangers in six seasons and I see little reason for them to start here. Davies (1-0, 2.13 ERA) gets the start for KC and while he's off to a good start in 2009, his career mark is 27-35 with a 5.52 ERA. In his 79 career starts, his teams are just 35-44. I'll also note that Davies has struggled badly in Texas, where he's lost all three of his previous starts, compiling an 8.03 ERA and .345 opponent batting average. Take Padilla and the Rangers.
Tom Freese
St Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are 57-27 their last 84 home games and they are 9-4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30. Chicago is 5-0 in the last 5 starts made by Ted Lilly vs. NL Central teams and they are 6-1 with Lilly his last 7 starts vs. the Cardinals. St. Louis is 6-16 their last 22 road games and they are 3-9 their last 12 games vs. lefty starters. The Redbirds are 0-4 in Todd Wellemeyer's last 4 Sunday starts. PLAY ON CHICAGO (Lilly vs. Wellemeyer)
Jimmy The Moose
New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes
Prediction: Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes did what they wanted to do, leave New Jersey with the split. The Devils have lost 6 of their last 8 road games. In their last 8 games as an underdog the Devils are 2-6. Carolina is 24-6 in their last 30 games as a favorite. The Hurricanes are 8-1 in their last 9 games following a win. The home team has won 7 of the last 9 meetings. Carolina has been one of the hottest team's in hockey over the last couple of months and they'll take this one. Play on the Carolina Hurricanes -.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on NY Yankees -1.5 -113
The Yankees were embarrassed like they've never been embarrassed before as Wang's struggles were not ready to come to an end Saturday. This is a very similar situation to when Wang and the Yankees were beat 5-15 on 4/13 by the Rays and he accurately played on the Yankees to bounce back behind Burnett the next day as they beat Tampa Bay 7-2. We'll make the same play here. Burnett has been terrific this season, going 2-0 with a tidy 2.70 ERA while his counterpart, Carl Pavano, has been atrocious for the tribe, going 0-2 with an ERA of 16.71. The Yankees are 10-3 in their last 13 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Expect the Yankees to come alive today after such a disappointing performance Saturday. Take NY on the run line.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Pittsburgh Pirates +105
We'll bet the Bucs in the home dog role today as the Braves' Vazquez is just 3-13 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons, not to mention plays against all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher allowing 5.3 or more runs/game on the season (NL), after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 31-11 the last 5 seasons. The Braves are really struggling, having lost 5 in a row, and they haven't even managed a run in their last 2. Bet the Bucs.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Colorado Rockies +114
Jimenez has had good success against the Dodgers at 4-0 when starting against them in his career. We'll back him at a great price and fade McDonald who enters this contest with a 19.31 ERA. The Dodgers are rolling, but the value is not in their favor today, especially when facing a pitcher who's beat them 5 of the 6 times he faced them. Here's the clincher: plays against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA DODGERS) allowing 3.3 or less runs/game on the season (NL) against a good offensive team - scoring >=4.8 runs/game on the season (NL) are 42-17 since 1997. The Rockies get the call here.
Ron Raymond
CAR (-145) vs NJD
Betting against Martin Brodeur in the NHL playoffs is never a good thing, but the Hurricanes win in Game #2 might have been the turning point in this series. Every playoffs series has a momentum shift and scoring the OT winner in Game #2 against one of the top playoff goaltenders of all time, could have a huge and positive psychological effect on the Canes. Furthermore, with no Lagenbrunner in the line up, they are taking away a huge part of the puzzle, as Jaime brings a lot of sand paper to the Devils line up. Furthermore, Ward stepped up in Game #2 and with a boisterous home crowd on his side in Game #3, paying -145 is justifiable in my view. Not standard practice, but justifiable.
JACK JONES
Texas Rangers -120 over Kansas City Royals
I think you have to go with Texas here when you can get them at this kind of price. The Royals have been a pretty lucky team so far this year in scoring 54 runs over their past six games while hitting only .238. This team is 5-0 against right-handers this year, but batting only .219. Texas on the other hand is 4-4 at home, but has hit .333 in their home park and put up 8.1 runs per game. You have to think the numbers will start translating into the appropriate number of wins and losses. Looking at the records alone would have you staying away from Texas, but getting deeper into the numbers has me seeing value on the Rangers today.