Jeff Benton
St. Louis -130 at WASHINGTON
Now on a 23-14 roll with free plays after the Phillies squeaked one out against the Mets in 10 innings. For Sunday’s freebie in baseball, we’ll lay some chalk with the Cardinals at Washington.
St. Louis on Saturday got a look at what life is like without Albert Pujols in the lineup, and it wasn’t pretty. With baseball’s fiercest hitter and home-run leader enjoying a scheduled day off, the Cardinals lost 6-1 to the Nationals, managing just that one run on five hits against somebody named Shairon Martis, who entered yesterday with 6.20 ERA, then went out and tossed a complete game.
Prior to Saturday, with Pujols in the lineup, the Cardinals had scored 15 runs in two games against the Nationals (and Prince Albert went deep in each game). What’s more, prior to yesterday, the Cardinals had scored at least five runs in 12 of their past 16 games – and yes, Pujols played in every one of those. I think you get the picture.
Today, Pujols will be back in the lineup and facing lefty John Lannan, who has a 4.61 ERA in five starts (with the Nationals losing all five). Not only that, but Lannan has served up SEVEN gopher balls in 27 1/3 innings. On the other hand, Lannan’s mound opposition today is Kyle Lohse, who is off to a phenomenal start (3-0, 1.97 ERA). And in contrast to Lannan, Lohse has allowed just one home run in 32 innings.
Lastly, despite yesterday’s result, the Cardinals are still 7-2 against Washington since the start of last season, they’ve lost back-to-back games just once all season and the Nationals (6-17) have won consecutive contests just once this year. Pretty easy call here. Lay the price with Pujols and the Redbirds.
5♦ WASHINGTON
Drew Gordon
Houston -115 at ATLANTA
In years past, I'd be extremely reticent in backing Wandy Rodriguez on the road, and especially at Turner Field, where he's had some issues in the past. But I believe Rodriguez has really turned a corner this season, going 2-2 with an outstanding 1.69 ERA thus far! What's even more promising, is he's kept his ERA way down on the road, posting a 2.77 ERA on the highway thus far. Look for more of the same, as Rodriguez builds off the last time he saw the Braves, allowing just 1 unearned run over 7 innings back in September!
On the flip side, I know plenty of Atlanta-backers were happy to see Jo-Jo Reyes pitch so well in his last start, but I'm not convinced. Allowing 1 run over 7 innings at the Cardinals is noteworthy, but its also important to note that he hasn't beaten an NL team in exactly one year to the day! Guys, don't be fooled by one nice start, Reyes was a disaster in the start prior to the Cardinals (got rocked at PNC Park) and was horrendous in his last home start, allowing 5 runs in 3 1/3 innings to the Mets! Point being, trust Reyes at your own loss!
Also, although they didn't score a ton of runs against lefties last year, the Astros did bat a solid .271 against them. Its still early on this season, but they are averaging a healthy 4.6 runs against southpaws thus far, and a juicy match up against an inconsistent Jo-Jo Reyes is just what the doctor ordered to build off a nice offensive effort yesterday. In the end, Rodriguez has been too damn good to ignore at this price and in this spot.
Take Houston behind Rodriguez over Atlanta and Jo-Jo Reyes in this MLB match up.
3♦ HOUSTON
Bobby Maxwell
Colorado +120 at SAN FRANCISCO
Today's FREE winner comes from San Francisco as we play the Rockies to get the best of the Giants in this N.L. West matchup.
The Rockies dominated the Giants on Saturday afternoon and look for them to do the same to San Francisco lefty Barry Zito today.
Zito (0-2, 5.24 ERA) just hasn't been very good since joining the Giants and this season they are 2-2 and he's allowed 22 hits in 22.1 innings. Last time he faced the Rockies was last September when he allowed three runs on six hits in eight innings but lost 3-1 in San Francisco.
For the Rockies, it's Jason Hammel on the mound today making just his second start for them this season. He got roughed up by the Padres on Monday, giving up five runs in three innings but his offense bailed him out and won the game 12-7.
It's been all about the offense for the Rockies lately as they've won four of their last six and scored five runs or more in each of the four wins.
We're counting on Colorado and its offense to get to Zito in this one. Grab the plus money and play the Rockies today.
4♦ COLORADO
Scott Delaney
Take the Dodgers on the Run Line tonight against San Diego, as the winning continues at Chavez Ravine for the team with the best record in baseball.
The Dodgers have now won three straight overall, and nine in a row at Dodger Stadium, the first time that's occured since the franchise was in Brooklyn.
And with Chad Billingsley on the bump, this should be a dominating blowout win.
Lay the run line and bank the men in blue.
L.A. DODGERS RUN LINE
Matt Rivers
For Sunday take the Angels at Yankee Stadium.
Why would I back Anaheim today? For one, I do not buy into Phil Hughes and for two, I do not buy into these Yankees. Besides that though that's a tough question!?!?!?
Obviously Mike Scioscia's Angels are not all that right now without their main man in Vlad Guerrero but Joe Girardi's club has just not impressed me at all without their big gun in Alex Rodriguez. The New Yorkers look old and just not that good. Guys like Brett Gardner, Jose Molina, Ramiro Pena, Angel Berroa and others are not your typical Bronx Bombers. Even veterans like Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon are older and mediocre at the very best. Only Mark Teixeira scares me a bit and I guess Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada have been alright at times so far this season.
The Yankee bullpen is young and inexperienced, save the great Mariano Rivera and I do not see Phil Hughes repeating that very solid first outing of the season in Detroit. Sure Hughes has some quality stuff and may put it all together at some point but the righty was in the minors for a reason and one start does not make a good pitcher.
Joe Saunders had a great 2008 season and has looked pretty good at times this season. The lefty is not going to wow you with electric and overwhelming stuff at all but he gets the job done a lot more than he doesn't and plus some money here makes me say why not!?!?!?
K-Rod is gone which hurts but all in all I am all about the Halos at the Stadium today!
Jake Timlin
Back to the NBA today and where I am 7-3-1 with playoff freebies.
Well making it 8-3-1 today I like the Hawks at home minus the game 7 points. Yes in what has been the less entertaining series out east I look for yet another blowout win for the home team here today. You see so far in the six games played not one game has been close as the winners in all six games has won by double digits, including the Hawks posting 15 point win in their last game in this series. In fact in the series it is the Hawks who have won and covered 2 of the last 3 games played and thanks now to being at home for a game 7 I look for Atlanta to make it 3 of 4 as they advance in the series with yet another double digit win. Flat out, I liked Atlanta to win this series a week ago and nothing has changed as thanks to being at home it will be Atlanta advancing to the next round.
PICK: Atlanta Hawks
Tony Weston
Today's Selection
The Mariners can’t take care of business and we end up taking the loss. But we’re getting back on track today and making it 3 of 4 winners as we’re taking the Under on the Dallas Mavericks-Denver Nuggets Total in Game 1 of this Western Conference second-round series.
The Total for this game is hovering around 206.5, depending on where you play this. But it won’t matter because scoring will be at a premium between these two.
While you would typically think of high-scoring affair when you think of these two teams, the Under has been the smart play when these two take the court.
Consider that the Under has come in each of the last three meetings between these two and the Under, long term, is 14-6 over the last 20 meetings between these two.
Keep in mind that over their last three meetings of the regular season these two have totaled, on average, 195.3 points per game and totaled only 196 when they last played in Denver on Jan. 13.
Scoring will be at a premium today as the Under comes through rather easily. Take the Under in this second-round matchup.
3♦ MAVERICKS-NUGGETS UNDE
VEGAS EXPERTS
Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets
This is a classic case of sell high, buy low. The Nuggets went 5-0 ATS in the 1st Round and beat Dallas in all four regular season meetings. However, two of those games were played when the Mavs didn't have Josh Howard and there's no doubt that Dallas came into the playoffs playing their best basketball of the season. Three of Denver's wins over Dallas this year came by three points or less. Kenyon Martin will have problems containing Dirk Nowitzki
Play on: Dallas
LT Profits
New York Mets -105
We cashed a winning ticket on the Philadelphia Phillies vs. the New York Mets yesterday, but we now look for the Mets to take the rubber match of this series.
John Maine had been a major disappointment for the Mets, but it looks like he turned the corner in his last start and finally showed what he is capable of, when he limited the Florida Marlins to an unearned run and just one hit in six innings. More importantly, we look for him to carry over that success vs. a Phillies team that he has always pitched well against, as he has allowed three runs or less in all nine of his career starts against them, including three starts last season.
Conversely, Joe Blanton has still not quite figured things out this season. He is 0-2 with a horrendous 8.41 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in 20.1 innings, and the most alarming part is that he is not really showing signs of improvement. Blanton was lit up for six earned runs and eight hits in only 4.1 innings by the light-hitting Washington Nationals last time out, and he also failed poorly the last time he faced the Mets, surrendering five earned runs and eight hits in six frames.
Finally, the Mets bullpen currently ranks fourth in the majors with a collective 3.12 ERA, while the Phillies are struggling along with a 4.05 pen ERA, so look for the Mets to take the series.
Pick: Mets -105
Tom Freese
Colorado at San Francisco
San Francisco starter Barry Zito is 5-2 with a 2.57 ERA in 7 career starts vs. the Rockies. The Giants are 15-6 their 21 games vs. righty starters and they are 13-6 in Game 3 of a series. San Francisco is 7-3 with Zito vs. NL West teams. Colorado is 20-44 their last 64 games as road underdogs and they are 2-6 their last 8 road games overall. The Rockies are 2-8 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 1-4 vs. lefty starters. PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO - (Zito vs. Hammel)
Jimmy The Moose
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
The Rockies are 9-13 to start the season. On the road they are 5-8. The Rockies are 2-6 in their last 8 road games. In their last 6 games following a win they are 1-5. They are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a lefty. The Giants are 6-2 in their last 8 home games. in their last 10 overall they are 7-3. Zito has pitched a lot better so far this year and the Giants have won 2 of his last 3 starts, Play on the San Francisco Giants -.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
After a promising first week of the season Baltimore continues to slide, having lost five straight and 13 of the last 16. The top starter for the Orioles, Jeremy Guthrie takes the ball looking to avoid the sweep but the odds are stacked against him. Guthrie has allowed three or more runs in four of his five starts this season and he has walked eleven while posting just 16 strikeouts. Guthrie’s worst effort came in his only road start and he will give way to a terrible Orioles bullpen. Baltimore lost another game in the pen last night and Orioles relievers have combined for a 6.22 ERA.
Toronto’s bullpen has been very solid even with the injury to closer B.J. Ryan. Toronto owns a 2.98 bullpen ERA and today’s starter Scott Richmond may not need a lot of help. The Canadian native has pitched brilliantly in his first full season with the big league club and although he likely would not have got this chance without injuries in the rest of the rotation he has quickly made his mark. The Blue Jays are 4-0 in his starts and he has allowed just seven earned runs in over 23 innings this season. Richmond has a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio and he pitched six innings of shutout ball the one time he faced the Orioles in his career.
Toronto is hitting .295 on the season as the offense continues to click and those numbers are even stronger over the last ten games to suggest some staying power for the Blue Jays. Baltimore owns above average offensive numbers but it has not been enough to counteract the lousy pitching results. The Orioles have lost 13 of the last 16 meetings between these teams and because Richmond is a lesser known pitcher this is a very reasonable price on a team with one of the best records in baseball playing at home against a greatly struggling Baltimore team.
EZ'S FREE SELECTION
Date: Sunday, May 1, 2009 (is this today's game?)
Game: Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets
(702) Denver Nuggets -6
The Nuggets are rolling with a 5-0 record against the spread
so far in the playoffs and they have dominated the Mavericks
this season winning all four games and posting a 3-1 record
against the spread. I look for that dominance to continue to
day as the Nuggets open this series with a big win. Lay the
points with the home team.
2009 Free Selections Record 65-54 (54.6%)
===============================================
Free Selection from Totals4U
Sunday's free selection: St. Louis/Washington under 9
==============================================
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
255 - 166 run 60 %
Sun KC Royals
Sat: Boston Red Sox w/ Wakefield TY
==============================================
8)