Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
Came through yesterday as the Cavaliers and Hawks play Under the Total and give us a winner in this spot. We’re making it two in a row tonight.
We’re sticking with the NBA postseason as we’re heading to Orlando where we’re taking the Over in Game 4 of this series tonight. The number for this game is set at around 192.5 points, depending on where you’re playing this. But it won’t matter because these two will score in bunches and light up the scoreboard.
Consider that after coming Under the Total in Game 1, the Over has come in each of the last two games as the Magic and Celtics have totaled, on average, 209.5 points per.
Including the last two games, the Celtics have seen the Over go 8-2 their last 10 games overall and have seen the Over come in 23 of their last 32 games overall.
The Over is also on a 4-1 run in Boston’s last 5 road games and it has come in 4 of their last 5 playoff games when the Celtics are catching points.
The Magic, on the other hand, have seen the Over come in 3 of their last 4 games and will see it come in again tonight. Take the Over easily in this one tonight.
3♦ CELTICS-MAGIC OVER
Red Dog Sports
Boston/Carolina
Play: Under 5
Carolina has gone under 7-1-1 in their last 9 on the road. The under has hit in 8 of the last 11 Boston home games and there have been 19 unders and 9 overs in the last 28 meetings in Boston. Play the under on Sunday.
DAVE COKIN
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS / CINCINNATI REDS
Take CINCINNATI REDS
Edinson Volquez has gotten his BB rate down from what was an unacceptable level, and the Reds righty has been unhittable lately. Volquez has allowed an incredibly low nine hits in his last 27 innings. Adam Wainwright can be tough for the Cardinals, but I'd rather ride the Volquez hot streak, so I'll back the Reds.
John Ryan
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets
Play: Pirates
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Pirates as they face the Mets. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 32-12 making 31.6 units since 2003 and is already 2-0 making 2.7 units this season. Play against all favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 and with good defensive catchers allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game on the season and after scoring 7 runs or more 3 straight games. Mets are just 12-22 (-19.6 Units) against the money line versus a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse over the last 3 seasons; 17-25 (-18.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 over the last 3 seasons. Take the Pirates.
MTi Sports
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: New York Yankees
The Yankees are 21-3 as a favorite after a loss in which their starter pitched less than 3 innings and the Orioles are 1-17 in the last game of a three-game home series when they split the first two, if they play at home next. Take the Yanks.
LARRY NESS
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers
The Cubs took two of three in Milwaukee from April 10-12 earlier this year and entered this weekend series having won 11 of 16 games at Miller Park since the start of the 2007 season. However, after losses on both Friday and Saturday, Chicago is in danger of being swept in Milwaukee for the first time since May 3-5, 2005. Ryan Braun hit a two-run HR in the eighth inning to lead Milwaukee to a 3-2 win on Friday and last night, Craig Counsell and Braun hit back-to-back HRs during a six-run seventh which broke open a close game, as the Brewers won again (12-6). Milwaukee opened the 2009 season just 4-9 but is 14-4 since April 22, which represents the best mark in MLB over that time frame .Braun has been carrying the offense during the team's winning streak, hitting .443 with seven HRs and 23 RBI in his last 17 games. The Cubs have fought injuries all season and 3B Aramis Ramirez was placed on the 15-day DL on Saturday with a dislocated left shoulder (he is expected to be out at least a month). 1B Derrek Lee sat out his fourth straight game Saturday with neck spasms and is scheduled to have tests on Monday. Without those two, the Cubs stranded 12 runners on Saturday night. The pitching matchup for Sunday features lefty Sean Marshall of the Cubs and veteran righty Jeff Suppan of the Brewers. Marshall made 24 starts in 2006, going 6-9 with a 5.59 ERA (team was 12-12). He made 21 appearances (19 starts) in 2007, greatly improving his ERA to 3.92 but still went just 7-8 (team was 9-10). He was the team's long reliever for much of the 2008 season, appearing in 34 games (seven starts), going 3-5 with a 3.86 ERA (team was 1-6 in his starts). However, he earned the team's fifth starting spot out of spring training and after two short relief stints, will make his fifth start of 2009 in this one. He's 0-4 with a 4.32 ERA in those four starts and has now made eight starts (he's 0-6 and the team 0-8) since his last victory, a 7-1 win over St Louis on July 6 of last year. Making matters worse, Marshall is 1-2 with a 9.53 ERA in nine games (two starts) in his career vs the Brewers. He'll face a Milwaukee team today, which was an impressive 14-7 (6.03 RPG) vs lefties in day games last year (Brewers have faced left-handed starts a total of just seven times in 2009, going 5-2 in all situations). Jeff Suppan's story is much different than Marshall's. He began his career way back in 1995 with the Red Sox. He moved to Arizona, then KC and Pittsburgh, before coming back to Boston at the end of 2003. He didn't do well in that return and he signed with St Louis for the 2004 season. Suppan posted records of 16-9 (4.16) in 2004 and 16-10 (3.57) in '05, then fell off some in 2006 (12-7, 4.12). However, he pitched well in the postseason that year, as the Cards surprised everyone by winning the 2006 World Series. He used that to sign a big free agent deal with Milwaukee and he's gone 12-12 (4.62) and 10-10 (4.96) the last two seasons. Some may call him a disappointment but let me note that his 34 starts in 2007 and 31 last year, gave him 10 straight seasons with 30-plus starts. How many starting pitchers can make that claim these days? He opened the year with two poor efforts but is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA over his last four outings, with Milwaukee winning all four. Take Milwaukee to complete the sweep on Sunday.
Nick Parsons
Anaheim Ducks +200 @ Detroit Red Wings
A value play here; to say this series has been unpredictable would be an understatement. With this series now being a best of 3, like the Blackhawks last night, the Ducks have a real opportunity to play major spoilers and come away with an upset victory on the road with a concerted effort this evening. Anaheim is 10-6 (+6 units) when revenging a home loss vs. an opponent while the Red Wings are a poor 7-8 (-4.6 units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season; value play on ANAHEIM!
RJ Robbins
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
We are taking the Dodgers. LA fits into situation to play on home team LA Dodgers, that are a good hitting team (AVG >=.275) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70) -NL, in May games. 36-8 the L5 seasons. LA DODGERS 5 San Francisco 3
Scott Rickenbach
San Diego Padres @ Houston Astros
PICK: Under 8.5
It certainly hasn't been "the year" so far for either one of these struggling offenses. That said, there is great value with the under in this one based on the pitching match-up. The Padres Geer played his college ball at nearby Rice University and there is no doubt that he is relishing this opportunity to face the home town Astros at Minute Maid Park. He's also coming off of a fantastic outing and he certainly should be matched "pitch for pitch" by the Astros Roy Oswalt. In most all of his starts so far this season, Oswalt has been his usual, dominant self and we should see more of that this afternoon! Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Houston on Sunday afternoon.
DAVE MALINSKY
HOUSTON/SAN DIEGO First Half Under 4.5
We are hearing good health reports concerning Roy Oswalt, which makes him ideal to back against a struggling San Diego offense. We like what we see from Josh Geer much more than what the markets have, making him an under-valued commodity, with a particularly good chance to handle a lineup without Lance Berkman. What we do not like are some of the bullpen particulars, especially with Houston lacking a closer today (LaTroy Hawkins is off of back-to-back nights and 36 pitches). So we will back the starters early and take the end-game out of play in this one.
Oswalt’s 0-2/4.26 is not earning much early respect but he is not far off of his game at all; outside of a five-run inning at St. Louis nearly a month ago he has basically been Roy Oswalt. Now he gets a chance to step down in class against a punchless Padre lineup, and he brings an 8-2/2,62 lifetime against them, including a 3-0/1.57 in the last three starts from this mound.
Meanwhile Geer is not only an under-rated commodity, but brings a special focus today, as the former Rice University star gets his first Major League start back in the neighborhood. We were confident enough to back him with a 6* Under ticket in his last outing, that 2-1 win in 10 innings over Colorado, and note part of that logic – as a starter he has now worked to a 2.52 tune the past two seasons, but he had an ugly relief outing vs. Pittsburgh two weeks ago when he was called in to replace an injured Shawn Hill. That outing carries more weight in his numbers than it should. Geer has a terrific command of the strike zone (11 walks in 52 Major League innings), and has held right-handers to a .200 clip this season, which sets him up well into a lineup that lacks left-handed punch without Berkman. We can call for him to have a couple of good passes against hitters that have not seen him before, and by then our mission has been accomplished.
Tom Freese
Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
Washington is 31-65 their last 96 games as underdogs and they are 14-48 on the road vs. righty starters. The Nationals are 13-32 after scoring two or less runs in their last game and they are they are 1-4 in Scott Olsen's last 5 starts. Arizona starter Max Scherzer has allowed 11 runs total in his 5 starts this year. The Diamondbacks are 37-18 as home favorites of -151 to -200 and they are 4-0 in Game 3 of a series. PLAY ON ARIZONA (Scherzer vs. Olsen)
Jimmy The Moose
Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Over
The over is 8-3 in the Mariners last 11 games overall. The over is 6-2 in their last 8 following a loss. In their last 17 games as a favorite the over is 14-3. Seattle has played over the total in 4 of Bedard's 6 starts this season. Minnesota has played the over in their last 6 home games. In their last 7 games as a home dog the over is 5-2. The over is 20-7 in the Mariners last 27 trips to Minnesota. The over is 20-6-1 in the last 27 meetings overall. Play the over.
Andre Gomes
Play on San Diego ML @ +148
The Padres shouldn't be such underdogs for this contest as this game will be a close contest. Today the Astros send their ace Roy Oswalt to the mound and Oswalt is yet to reach his best form. He is coming from a non quality start vs. Washington by allowing 4 runs in just 5 innings. To make things even worst he left that game with a bone bruise on his right index finger and there is a possibility that he's not 100% healthy for this contest. Remember that the Astros are just 3-3 with him. Meanwhile the Padres send Josh Geer to the mound and Geer has been a great surprise so far in the season.
He took a shutout into the eighth inning in his last start vs. Colorado on Tuesday before allowing a home run to Chris Iannetta. He left the game with a no-decision but all his 3 starts in this season were quality starts and we must not forget that he faced the Dodgers and the Phillies so we are talking about quality teams! Let's give some credit to Geer in here. Both teams are struggling offensively and last night the Astros won 5-4 despite having less hits and LOB. 1B Lance Berkman is doubtful for today and I don't see a clear edge for any team in here. My fair line for this game is -120 for the Astros so they are overrated today and that's why I'm taking the Padres in here.
EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
(726) Houston Rockets +7
This line doubled when the news of Yao's broken foot was
released, but I expect a hell of an effort by the Rockets in
this game. Houston might not pull of the win, but seven is
way too high. Take the points.
2009 Free Selections Record 69-57 (54.8%)
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Free Selection from Totals4U
Sunday's free selection: Tampa Bay/Boston under 9 1/2
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
258 - 170 run 60 %
Sun: Arizona (MLB)
Sat DODGERS TY Fri Red Sox Ty
MATT FARGO
Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
It is surprising that Toronto is getting it done this season with the pitching staff it has. After Roy Halladay, there certainly are no big names but they have been good enough to get it done and let the offense do its thing. Today it will be Brett Cecil who is actually one of the top pitching prospects in the organization. His Major League debut was a success as he went six innings and allowed just six hits and no walks and just one earned run. This will be his first road start but it comes against one of the worst offenses in baseball as Oakland is hitting just .239 on the season, easily worst in the American League. Cecil faces Dallas Braden who is off to a fine start this year with a 2.50 ERA in six start. He is just 3-3 however as Oakland is averaging just 3.3 rpg in his starts and even the best of efforts are not going to secure wins with that offense behind him. On the other side, Toronto is killing left-handed pitching, batting .320 on the season including .349 over its last 10 games. The Blue Jays are 10-4 in their last 14 games against a left-handed starter while Oakland is 8-24 in its last 32 games against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is less than 1.15. Toronto is now 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in this series. 3* Toronto Blue Jays