SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(5) Houston (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS)
After staving off elimination on Thursday, the Rockets now travel once again to the Staples Center in Los Angeles for a winner-take-all Game 7 against the Lakers with the victory advancing to the Western Conference finals against the Nuggets.
Since losing All-Star center Yao Ming to a broken foot in Game 3, the resilient Rockets are 2-1 SU and ATS in this series, including Thursday’s 95-80 home win, upsetting the Lakers as nine-point underdogs. Houston opened the game with a 17-1 run and never trailed, building a 27-15 lead at the end of one period. Houston, which shot 50.7 percent from the floor, was led by point guard Aaron Brooks’ 26 points, while forward Luis Scola added 24 points and 12 rebounds.
Los Angeles got 32 points from Kobe Bryant in Game 6, but the team shot just 35.7 percent from the floor. Only two other Lakers besides reached double figures in points as Los Angeles was held to its lowest point total in this postseason.
Houston has scored two playoff road wins, beating the Blazers in Game 1 of the opening round and then shocking the Lakers 100-92 in Game 1 of this series as an 8½-point underdog. However, in their last trip to Los Angeles for Game 5 on Tuesday, the Rockets got pummeled 118-78 and never threatened to cover as a 12-point road underdog. The Lakers are 5-1 SU at home in the postseason, but just 2-4 ATS.
Los Angeles is 7-3 (SU and ATS) in the 10 meetings this season with the Rockets with the favorite sitting at 7-4 ATS in the last 11 clashes. Inside Staples Center, the Lakers are on a 5-1 SU and ATS run against the Rockets. Finally, the straight-up winner has cashed in each of the last 12 head-to-head battles between these two.
Houston is on ATS slides of 2-5 following a spread-cover, 3-8 on the road against teams with a winning home record and 1-4 following a straight-up win, but Rick Adelman’s squad is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight after getting two days off and 6-2 ATS in its last eight Sunday contests. Meanwhile, the Lakers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight Sunday games, but otherwise they’re on ATS runs of 4-0 after a straight-up loss, 7-2 after getting two days off and 6-2 after a non-cover.
The under has been the play in four of the six clashes in this series, including the last three in a row, and six of the last eight battles between these rivals dating to the regular season have stayed low.
Houston is on several “under” runs, including 8-2 overall, 6-1 on Sundays, 5-2 as a playoff ‘dog and 11-5 on the road against teams with winning home marks. It’s also been all “unders” for the Lakers lately, including 7-2 overall, 11-5 at home, 23-9 as a favorite, 8-1-1 on Sundays, 14-2 after a straight-up loss and 13-4 at home against teams with a losing road record.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(3) Orlando (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) at (2) Boston (7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS)
The Magic make one final trek to TD Banknorth Garden in Boston for Game 7 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Celtics, with the winner headed to Cleveland take on the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference finals.
Orlando used a suffocating defense to win Game 6 on Thursday at home, holding Boston to just 13 fourth-quarter points en route to a 83-75 victory, barely cashing as a seven-point favorite. Stan Van Gundy’s Magic shot just 36.6 percent from the floor and got outrebounded 48-42, but they executed down the stretch and forced 22 Celtics turnovers. Orlando big man Dwight Howard led the charge with 23 points and 22 rebounds while Rashard Lewis chipped in with 20 points.
Boston got 19 points and 16 rebounds from point guard Rajon Rondo on Thursday, but veteran Ray Allen was just 2-of-11 shooting for five points. Now the Celtics return to Boston where they are 17-3 SU all-time at home in Game 7s, including a 109-99 win as a 5½-point favorite to eliminate the Bulls in the opening round of these playoffs. Also, the Celtics are 32-0 in seven-game series after leading 3-2.
The Magic are 3-3 in road playoff games (2-4 ATS), including taking Game 1 from the Celtics in Boston 95-90 as a 1½-point pup. Orlando clinched its opening-round series against the Sixers on the road in Game 6, winning 114-89 as a 5½-point underdog. The Celtics are 5-2 inside the Garden this postseason (3-4 ATS), and they had to rally to beat the Magic in Game 5 in Boston, using a 17-3 run to close the game and edge Orlando 92-88 as two-point favorites.
The home team has won four of the last five in this series (SU and ATS) and the host is 25-11 ATS in the last 36 matchups between these two. Orlando has not had much luck in Boston, going 4-14 ATS in their last 18 visits. Lastly, the chalk is 4-1 ATS over the past five in this series.
The Magic are on ATS slides of 2-7 on the road, 1-4 when playing after two days off and 5-13 against Atlantic Division teams, but they are 36-17-3 in their last 56 as a ‘dog and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 when catching points on the road. Boston is on ATS slumps of 1-4-1 when getting two days off and 4-12 in conference semifinal action, but Doc Rivers’ club is on positive pointspread runs of 4-0 following a non-cover, 5-1 as a chalk of less than five points and 10-4 at home against teams with a winning road record.
The under has been the play in each of the last three meetings in this best-of-7 clash, four of the six series games and seven of the last nine between these two dating to the regular season. Orlando is also on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 21-8 overall, 10-4 on the road, 14-5 against Atlantic Division teams, 4-1 on Sunday and 6-2 as a road ‘dog. The Celtics have stayed below the total in five of their last six Sunday games and seven of their last 10 as a playoff favorite five points are less. Conversely, Boston carries “over” trends of 14-6 overall, 35-17-1 at home and 15-6 against Eastern Conference teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee (22-14) at St. Louis (21-15)
The surging Brewers send left-hander Manny Parra (2-4, 4.82 ERA) to the mound against the Cardinals’ Todd Wellemeyer (3-3, 5.80) and this weekend series resumes at Busch Stadium, with both squads among a four-team logjam at the top of the N.L. Central Division.
After Friday’s game was postponed by rain, these rivals opened their first series of the season against each other on Saturday and Milwaukee rode a second-inning Corey Hart home run to a 1-0 victory. Four pitchers combined on the shutout for the Brewers, who are on an 18-5 tear in their last 23 games, winning the last four in a row and six of the last seven. Furthermore, Milwaukee, which now sits alone atop the N.L. Central standings, is on a 9-2 run in division play and has won eight of its last 10 road games.
St. Louis has now dropped five of its last seven games and is 1-5 in its last six against winning teams. Still, the Redbirds still sport positive streaks of 21-9 at Busch Stadium, 7-2 against left-handed starters and 5-0 facing southpaws at home.
Milwaukee has owned this rivalry lately, going 8-1 in the last nine clashes overall and 7-1 in its last eight games in St. Louis.
The Brewers came up empty in Parra’s first five starts of the season, with the lefty going 0-4 and posting a 5.33 ERA in the process, but Milwaukee has won in his last two outings –a 15-3 victory at Cincinnati on May 6 and a 6-3 home win over Florida on Tuesday. Parra is 1-3 with a 6.05 ERA in four road starts this season, and the Brew Crew is on slides of 2-9 in his last 11 outings overall and 1-7 in his last eight road appearances.
Wellemeyer got torched for seven runs (all earned) in just 4 1/3 innings in his last outing, Tuesday’s 7-1 setback at Pittsburgh, and he’s allowed four or more in runs in four of his seven starts this season. The 30-year-old is 1-2 with a 6.55 ERA in four home efforts, and St. Louis is 1-7 in the right-hander’s last eight home starts against winning teams and 0-5 in his last five Sunday outings.
In six career appearances (five starts) against St. Louis, Parra has yet to get a decision, going 0-0 with a 3.77 ERA. Wellemeyer is 0-2 with a 5.88 ERA in 10 career appearances (three starts) against Milwaukee.
The over for Milwaukee is on rolls of 7-4 overall, 4-1 on the highway and 4-1-2 behind Parra on the road. On the flip side, the under for St. Louis is on stretches of 12-3-1 at home against winning teams and 6-2-1 against lefty starters, and with Wellemeyer taking the ball, the under is on runs of 9-4 overall, 4-0 against winning teams and 6-1 on Sunday.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings overall and 6-1-1 in the last seven contests in St. Louis.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (18-17) at Texas (22-14)
Scott Feldman (2-0, 4.85 ERA) leads the red-hot Rangers as they wrap up a three-game series at Rangers Ballpark against the A.L. West rival Angels, who will start right-hander Jared Weaver (3-1, 2.45).
Texas, coming off a 10-8 win in Friday’s opener, eked out a 5-3 victory over Los Angeles on Saturday to extend its winning streak to six in a row. The Rangers have won 12 of their last 14 overall and they’re on additional rolls of 7-0 at home, 9-1 against right-handed starters and 8-1 in divisional contests.
Despite losing the first two games of this series, Los Angeles remains on a 9-4 overall run, and the Halos are on additional upswings of 6-3 against winning teams and 20-8 on Sunday. However, they’ve now dropped seven of their last nine games on the highway against teams with a winning record.
The Angels are still 8-5 in the last 13 clashes in this rivalry, including 4-2 in Texas.
Feldman has racked up five no-decisions among his seven starts this season, but he’s been solid in his last two stints, allowing three earned runs over 12 1/3 innings (2.19 ERA). On Tuesday against Seattle, Feldman yielded just one run on four hits in six innings, getting a no-decision in a 7-1 home victory. He’s got a 5.82 ERA in four home appearances (two starts) this season. Texas is 4-1 in the right-hander’s last five outings, but prior to Tuesday’s win over Seattle, it has lost seven consecutive Feldman starts at home.
Weaver is 2-0 with three no-decisions in his last five starts. The 26-year-old is coming off a strong effort Tuesday against the Red Sox, allowing one run on four hits in seven innings, but he got little offensive support as Los Angeles blew a 3-1, eighth-inning lead and lost 4-3 at home. Weaver is 0-1 with an inflated 6.55 ERA in two road starts, and the Angels are 0-4 in his last four outings on the highway dating to last season. However, the Halos have won Weaver’s last four Sunday stints.
Feldman is 1-3 with a 6.39 ERA in 13 career appearances (four starts) against Los Angeles, while Weaver is 2-1 with a 2.54 ERA in nine career starts against Texas, including 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA in four starts at Rangers Ballpark.
The under for Texas is on rolls of 6-2 overall, 7-3-1 on Sunday and 21-8 behind Feldman (including 5-1 at home), and the under for Los Angeles is on streaks of 7-2 overall, 5-0 on the road against winning teams and 4-1 with Weaver starting. In addition, the total has stayed low in five of Weaver’s last six starts against the Rangers (5-0-1), and all four of Weaver’s starts in Texas have played to the under.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL
Orlando at Boston
The Celtics look to close out the Magic at home and take advantage of Orlando's 2-7 ATS record in its last 9 road games. Boston is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-2 1/2).
Game 749-750: Orlando at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 120.909; Boston 124.448
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 3 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 2 1/2; 185 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-2 1/2); Over
Game 751-752: Houston at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 122.358; LA Lakers 132.865
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 10 1/2; 190 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 13; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+13); Under
MLB
Colorado at Pittsburgh
The Rockies are 7-1 in Ubaldo Jimenez' last 8 starts against the NL Central, while the Pirates are 1-4 in Zach Duke's last 5 home starts with the total set between 7 and 8 1/2. Colorado is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockies favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+110).
Game 951-952: LA Dodgers at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.216; Florida (Koronka) 14.741
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-140); Under
Game 953-954: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Park) 14.462; Washington (Zimmerman) 15.350
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-115); 10
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-115); Over
Game 955-956: Arizona at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Garland) 16.074; Atlanta (Lowe) 15.023
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+180); Under
Game 957-958: Colorado at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 14.561; Pittsburgh (Duke) 12.827
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+110); Under
Game 959-960: Milwaukee at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 15.084; St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 15.476
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-115); Under
Game 961-962: Houston at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 16.020; Cubs (Harden) 14.988
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-250); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+230); N/A
Game 963-964: Cincinnati at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.223; San Diego (Peavy) 14.936
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Diego (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-155); Under
Game 965-966: NY Mets at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.044; San Francisco (Cain) 15.493
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-120); Over
Game 967-968: Minnesota at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Slowey) 15.623; NY Yankees (Burnett) 17.228
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-185); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-185); Under
Game 969-970: Oakland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cahill) 16.004; Detroit (Galarraga) 15.273
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+155); Over
Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 13.689; Toronto (Halladay) 15.799
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-250); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-250); Under
Game 973-974: Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Huff) 15.052; Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine) 16.346
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 10
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-140); Over
Game 975-976: Baltimore at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Uehara) 16.041; Kansas City (Hochevar) 14.984
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+100); Under
Game 977-978: LA Angels at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 17.239; Texas (Feldman) 15.822
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-110); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+100); Under
Game 979-980: Boston at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Masterson) 15.589; Seattle (Vargas) 15.763
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+120); Under
NHL
Chicago at Detroit
The Red Wings open up the series looking to build on their 7-2 record in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite between -150 and -200. Detroit is the pick (-180) according to Dunkel, which has the Wings favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-180).
Game 1-2: Chicago at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.608; Detroit 13.041
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-180); Under
Craig Trapp
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: New York Mets
Rough loss on free play yesterday with TB and CLE leaving way too many runners in scoring position to get over 10 runs. But the good news is Craig hit his 5 star NL Total of the Month. The 5 star strongest plays of the day are 5-1 in Craig's last 7 days!! As always on Sundays Craig's free play is in the ESPN Night MLB Game of the day!!
Records
New York Mets 21-15, 9-7 away (Pelfrey 4-0, 4.89 ERA)
San Francisco Giants 18-18, 12-8 home (Cain 3-1, 3.00 ERA)
Betting Trends
Mets are 10-2 in their last 12 overall.
Mets are 4-0 in Pelfreys last 4 starts.
Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 games after losing the first 3 games of a series.
Mets are 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.
The Mets have dominated the SF Giants the last two years and they are going for the sweep of this early season 4 games series in SF tonight. The Mets have been tearing the cover off the ball lately scoring over 6 runs per game in the last 7 games. Pitching for SF today is CAIN who has been good this year overall but the last 3 games has given up over 3 runs per game on average and only getting into the 6th inning in those appearances. He will have to pitch very well or he will be shelled for multiple runs early. Pelfrey is not near as dangerous as his counterpart but he just wins going 4-0 so far this year. He will scatter his hits today and go deep in this game. Mets stay hot and pull off easy win. SCORE NYM 6 - SF 2
Tom Freese
Cincinnati at San Diego
The Padres are 26-11 their last 37 games as home favorites of -151 to -200. San Diego starter Jake Peavy has dominated the Reds in his career going 8-1 with a 2.31 ERA in nine starts. The Padres are 5-2 at home vs. the Reds. Cincinnati is 7-19 with Bronson Arroyo on the road vs. losing teams and they are 3-7 their last 10 games at the Padres. PLAY ON SAN DIEGO - (Peavy vs. Arroyo)
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Baltimore w/Uehara
When the Orioles close out their weekend series with the Royals in Kansas City today they will send Koji Uehara to the mound knowing he has dropped each of his last 5 team starts. However, in those games Uehara owns a sharp 3.05 ERA as he's issued just 2 walks against 29 strikeouts. With Baltimore 15-5 the last 20 games in this series, and also 15-5 the last 20 games on this field, look for Uehara and the the Birds to come up big here today.
Big Al McMordie
Cincinnati at San Diego
Pick: Cincinnati
At 4:05pm our free selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the San Diego Padres. Which version of righthanded veteran starter Bronson Arroyo will show up this afternoon for the Reds? The one who shut down the Pirates over eight shutout innings to start the month, or the one who gave up nine earned runs, not once, but twice this season! It should be the "good" Arroyo as the 10-year veteran has wrested the title of biggest home-away pitching bias in the Major Leagues from guys like Wandy Rodriguez and Jamie Shields (However, Arroyo is pitching MUCH BETTER ON THE ROAD than at home). It's very strange to see someone with a strong record like Arroyo's (5-2) but with an ERA over seven runs. However, Arroyo is on the road for this game, and he is also at one of the strongest pitchers parks in baseball -- and a place where he has had success throughout his career. He did well against the Padres last season, going 2-0 against them in 2008 with a 3.38 ERA. Jake Peavy's record is the opposite of Arroyo's (2-5), and his ERA, while well under seven runs, is still uncharacteristically high for this former Cy Young winner. Unlike Arroyo, who has gotten plenty of help from his teammates, Peavy has had terrible run support, as evident in his last home start, which was one of his best of the season (and his highest strikeout total -- 12 over seven innings). Despite this dominating pitching performance, Peavy took the loss in front of the home crowd. Of course, that's one of the big differences between these two teams: San Diego's offense is weak, while Cincinnati can put up plenty of runs. Take the Reds as a nice-sized underdog here.
Red Dog Sports
LA Angels at Texas
Play: Under 10
The Angels have played under in 6 of their last 8 and Texas has 7 unders, 3 overs and a push in their last 11 overall. Weaver has 2 overs and 4 unders this year and an ERA of 2.45 in his last 3 while Feldman has an ERA of 3 in that same time span with 0 overs and 4 unders. Look for the under to profit on Sunday.
Chris Jordan
Houston at CHICAGO
We side with Rich Harden in this one, and lay the run line in an easy blowout win in this NL Central showdown. Chicago’s right-hander moved to 4-1 on the season after beating the Padres in his last outing, in which he gave up a mere two runs on four hits over six innings.
What was more encouraging was the fact he seemingly found his control and sustained it as he walked just one batter. Harden already beat the Astros on May 6 in Houston, holding them to three runs on eight hits over seven innings, so confidence shouldn’t be too much of an issue.
We’ll also list Brian Moehler, who may be coming in off his best outing of the season, but let’s not forget he made his season debut against the Cubs at Minute Maid Park on April 8 and was knocked from the game after just 1-2/3 innings, over which he allowed seven earned runs.
At 22-14, I like the Cubbies to devour the 16-20 Astros in front of the home crowd at Wrigley.
1♦ CUBS RUN LINE
Bobby Maxwell
Houston +13' at L.A. LAKERS
We've got a Game 7 FREE winner for you as we go ahead and grab the points with the Rockets in this one from the Staples Center in Los Angeles.
This is just too many points to pass up with the Rockets today. These guys have absolutely nothing to lose in this game. They were supposed to fold up the tent and give up when Yao Ming got hurt in Game 3, but they've won two of the last three games, blowing out Los Angeles in Games 4 and 6.
So grab the points and watch as they frustrate the Lakers by hanging in there right into the fourth quarter. We're not saying the Rockets are going to pull off the outright upset, but this is just way too many points to pass on. It'll be closer than most people think so grab the points with the Rockets.
Los Angeles has no real answer for Houston point guard Aaron Brooks who has torched them in two of the last three games. He led the Rockets in scoring in Game 5, but they got blown out by a determined Lakers' team in that one. Brooks has too much speed for the Lakers. Derek Fisher has no chance of staying with him and when the big men step over to stop his penetration, he's dishing to the shooters for wide-open three-pointers.
The key for Los Angeles has been the fact nobody is pitching in to help Kobe. This looks like last year's Lakers that couldn't manage a complete team effort. Los Angeles is just 2-4 ATS at home in the postseason and they are on other ATS slides of 2-6 on Sundays.
Houston has won two playoff road games already and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games after getting two days off. These guys are bruisers and that doesn't get affected in Game 7s. They will come out and rebound and play defense. That doesn't change in Game 7s. Scoring will be at a premium, but expect Brooks to continue his domination and you know Ron Artest is looking forward to hitting a few big shots.
The Rockets are going to be in this one into the fourth quarter. Grab the points with Houston as this one ends up closer than anybody thinks it will.
2♦ HOUSTON
Karl Garrett
Houston at LA LAKERS -13
For Sunday, a NBA total winner for you, as I expect the Rockets and Lakers to play their 7th and final series game UNDER the posted total.
The last 3 games in this series have held LOW, but that is just the beginning of a bevy of UNDER trends that these two teams sport.
Houston is on an 8-2 UNDER clip their last 10 games, while Los Angeles is on a 7-2 UNDER run their last 9 games overall.
The LOW is also 6-2 between the teams dating back to the regular season.
Game Six on Thursday night stayed below the posted total by over 20-points, and while I don't expect this game to fall that far UNDER the posted price, I do expect it to still stay LOW.
Take the UNDER in Game Seven.
1♦ UNDER
Jeff Benton
Orlando at BOSTON -3
For Sunday’s free play, we’ll take the Celtics in a win-or-go-home Game 7 against the Magic from Boston.
32-0. That’s the Boston Celtics’ record in playoff matchups in which they’ve had a 3-2 series lead. Kind of hard to argue with perfection, isn’t it? In addition, the NBA’s most storied franchise has hosted a Game 7 on 17 previous occasions … and it won 14 times. Not exactly perfection, but pretty-damn close. That 14-3 mark at home includes a trio of Game 7 wins just since last spring. Boston beat the Hawks in Game 7 of the opening round last year; then it knocked off Cleveland in Game 7 of the conference semifinals; then just two weeks ago, the C’s eliminated the Bulls in Game 7 at the Garden.
What’s more, if you want to take it a step further, Boston has hosted an elimination game four times since last spring, beating the Hawks by 34 points, the Cavs by five points, the Lakers in Game 6 of the NBA Finals by 39 points and the Bulls two weeks ago by 10 points, going 3-1 ATS.
Now, I’m the first to admit that Orlando should’ve closed out this series two games ago. The Magic suffered a buzzer-beating one-point home loss to Boston in Game 4, then blew a double-digit fourth-quarter lead in Beantown in Game 5. Win those two contests, and this series would be over. But the fact is, the Magic didn’t win those games, and they didn’t win them because they’ve lacked a killer instinct pretty much this entire postseason. And even though there’s little question that Orlando is the better, healthier all-around team, I do not trust this soft squad to take down the defending champs on the road in an elimination situation.
Bottom line: The Celtics have had numerous opportunities to throw in the towel this postseason, especially without their best player (Kevin Garnett) available. But they not only have refused to do that, they’ve ratcheted up their play every time they’ve had their backs against the wall, exhibiting the kind of physical and mental toughness that champions are made of. In the end, to get a team with this kind of heart, at home, in Game 7, at this cheap of a price, is too good to pass up. Lay the couple of points with the Celtics.
5♦ BOSTON
Sports Gambling Hotline
Orlando at BOSTON
Just not enough points on the board tonight in this Orlando-Boston game, so let's play the UNDER in the 7th, and final game of this series.
The last 3 games played in this series have all landed UNDER the total, and 4 of the 6 in this series overall have played LOW.
That means that the UNDER between these 2 teams has come through 7 of the last 9 times these teams have tangled.
Game 7's are notoriously played close to the vest, with the defense usually dictating, so we are playing this Orlando-Boston battle UNDER the posted total.
2♦ UNDER
Matt Rivers
For Sunday take the Mets out West.
I love Matt Cain and believe the guy is a total stud that, when on, can shut any team down, but with that said the Mets are sooooo much better than the light hitting Giants that you just cannot pass up Jerry Manual's boys at this price.
Mike Pelfrey is a solid young hurler that has not been great this season but the righty has been winning a lot and should be just fine here by the Bay. The G-Men flat out do not have many weapons offensively at all and could easily once again put up zero after zero.
Let's face it, the Mets are rolling right now. They fell down 5-1 the other day to Tim Lincecum and roared back like it was nothing. Let's not belittle that at all as the reigning Cy Young award winner should be able to close out that game but New York is just playing at too high of a level right now. Plus they did not even have Jose Reyes or Carlos Delgado on Friday night and then on Saturday completely dismantled a future Hall of Famer in Randy Johnson.
When the Mets are playing well they are scary because they truly are ultra talented and a team that can win it all. The bullpen issues of the past are really no longer there with K-Rod closing games out and an offense led by Wright, Beltran and Reyes is no joke.
Cain should hold his own and may even pitch better than Pelfrey but the difference in offenses and bullpens is too much to overlook as the Mets are once again a total no-brainer and must play at this number!
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
Of course we came through yesterday as the Philadelphia Phillies come through and beat the Washington Nationals to give us a solid Comp Play winner in this spot.
We’re making it 2 in a row today as we’re heading to the NBA hardwood where we’re taking the Houston Rockets on the road at the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Rockets come into today’s game catching about 12 points at the Staples Center and we’re taking full advantage of that.
Consider that Houston has covered in 2 of its last 3 against the Lakers, both of those times catching points.
Keep in mind, too, that Los Angeles comes into today’s game having covered in only 4 of its last 10 games overall and is only 2-3 ATS its last 5 games at home.
Today, the Lakers will struggle again against a Rockets team that won Game 6 95-80 as a 9-point underdog. Take the points and take Houston on the road in this one.
3♦ ROCKETS
VEGAS EXPERTS
Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics
The Celtics have never lost a series in which they led three games to two in 32 tries. That will be our starting point. Home teams seem to hold a distinct advantage in these deciding games, so it was no surprise that Boston, along with Atlanta, both covered at home in a Game 7 in the 1st Round. Orlando is just 6-21 ATS in this building since 1996 and simply lacks the fortitude, coaching and cluth players to get it done in this situation. Lay the points.
Play on: Boston