John Ryan
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Boston Red Sox
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Boston as they play Seattle. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 80-34 making 37.1 units since 1997. Play against home teams that are very bad AL offensive team scoring <=4.2 runs/game facing a team with a very good bullpen sporting an ERA<=3.33; that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities. Boston is a solid 26-8 (+15.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team sporting a win percentage of 46% to 49% over the last 2 seasons; 37-12 (+22.4 Units) against the money line versus teams outscored by opposition by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Seattle is just 19-41 (-20.9 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. Take Boston
ROCKETMAN
New York Mets at San Francisco Giants May 17 2009 8:05PM
Play: NY Mets
NY Mets are 20-15 overall this year while San Francisco is 18-17 on the season. NY Mets are 8-0 this year when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. NY Mets are 11-3 overall in May this year. NY Mets are scoring 5.4 runs per game on the road this year. NY Mets bullpen has a 3.10 ERA overall this year and a 3.58 ERA on the road this season. Mike Pelfrey is a perfect 4-0 overall this year. NY Mets are 11-3 overall vs San Francisco the past 3 years. Pelfrey is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA overall vs San Francisco since 1997. Matt Cain is 2-3 with a 5.23 ERA overall vs NY Mets since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the NY Mets tonight!
Jimmy The Moose
Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Over
The over is 8-1-1 in the Reds last 10 games overall. The over is 7-1-1 in their last 9 vs. a right-handed starter. In their last 5 games as a dog the over is 4-1. The over is 3-1 in Arroyo's last 4 starts. His last 3 starts vs. the Padres have played over the total. The over is 9-3-1 in the Padres last 13 games following a win. The over is 8-2-2 in the last 12 meetings between the clubs. Play the over.
Drew Gordon
Cleveland at TAMPA BAY -140
Lay this price on Andy Sonnanstine, have I gone crazy?! No, obviously not, and here's why:
I know plenty of bettors are riding that "fade train" on the Sonnanstine, and not entirely without reason, but I'd warn you to reserve judgement until after this game, at the very least. Why? Well two reasons really: A. Sonnanstine has been effective at Tropicana this season, going 1-0 with solid 3.38 ERA and that came against the powerhouse lineups of the Yankees & Red Sox respectively. And B. He's coming off an awful effort on the road at the Orioles, and if ever he's going to bounce back, it'll be today at home.
Another issue for the Indians is their unproven starter, southpaw David Huff, making his Major League debut today on the road. He's got solid numbers coming out of Triple-A Columbus, but let's not get carried away. Also, its no secret the Rays do hit lefties well, batting .295 against them on the season. While its true they haven't had much success record-wise against them at the Trop thus far, they've only seen 3 southpaw starters there thus far. Look for them to notch their first "W" against lefty today against Huff.
Finally, not only do the Rays look a hell of a lot more comfortable at home, but its important to note the Indians' bullpen is struggling mightily, posting an ugly 6.86 ERA over their L3, which is just a shade below their laughable numbers on the season (6.41 ERA). Rays 'pen has been solid, posting a 3.29 ERA over the same 3-game span. In the end, Sonnanstine is a better pitcher than we saw at Baltimore in his last one, and he'll prove me right this afternoon, as he regroups at Tropicana this afternoon!
Take Tampa Bay behind Sonnanstine over Cleveland and Huff in this MLB match up.
2♦ TAMPA BAY
RatedPicks
LA Lakers -12.5
Orlando Magic +2.5
MLB
Well, Ill call yesterday a flop. After being rushed into position to handicap games after only a 6 hour notice. We go 1-3 and learned a few things. That Pavano can pitch a decent game, striking out 17, yet the Indians bats can only muster 2 runs to back him up. The Red Sox and Mariners score 8 runs in 5 innings, then decide the game is over, and go scoreless for the other 4 innings. Then the Rockies give up 7 rus in Pittsburgh to the cold bats of the Pirates. All take the blame for these, but we need to hit the books big tomorrow, after losing 1 unit on my first day. That being said, Ive had all day to closely take advantage of Sundays card, and we have a *BP* on this great day. We will have a winning day in bases!
The Bulldog
LA Dodgers -140 *BP*
Dodgers/Marlins OVER 10
Dodgers vs Marlins is an interesting match-up this Sunday. The Marlins have only won 2 of the last 10 vs the Dodgers. Before yesterdays win, they have only won 1 of the last 10. The Dodgers throw KERSHAW on the mound today, who isnt one of the most solid pitchers in the Major Leagues, but when you pit him against KORONKA for the Marlins, he looks like a Cy Young winner. Look for the Dodgers bats to win this one in a shootout, with Kershaw posting an ERA of 9.47 on the road and Koronka posting a 9.64 ERA, look for this total to climb.
Cincinatti Reds +140
Can anyone explain to me how the Reds, Bronson Arroyo is +140? This guy is 4-0 on the road, while posting a 2.86 ERA this year. He is UNDEFEATED when he has faced the Padres going 2-0. The Padres do counter with Jake Peavy, but he is 1-3 this year and sporting a 4.28 ERA at home. Peavy has yet to get a WIN in his last 5 starts. Lets take the STRONG DOG in this one, Reds roll over the Padres.
JACK JONES
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -110 over Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox have scored just 2.6 runs per game over their last seven and four runs per game against right-handed starters this season. Toronto has scored 6.2 runs per game against right-handed starters and 5.8 per game overall so the offensive advantage goes to the Blue Jays. The pitching matchup though is where the real advantage here is with Roy Halladay having given up just 5 ER in his last 25 innings. Gavin Floyd has been terrible this year with a 7.32 ERA and 1.88 WHIP, but in his last three starts he's been worse with a 9.56 ERA and 2.13 WHIP. Toronto is 14-5 the last three years against Chicago and today should go the Blue Jays way.
Nick Parsons
Houston Rockets @ LA Lakers -12.5
The Western Conference semifinals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets appears to come down to a simple question: Which Lakers team will show up for the decisive Game 7? It's my firm belief that the Lakers will have their best game of the series on the defensive end and improve to a perfect 3-0 ATS when tied in a playoff series; play on the LAKERS!
Nelly
Baltimore - over Kansas City
It is odd to see the Orioles as a road favorite but Koji Uehara has been an outstanding pitcher. Uehara has a season WHIP of just 1.12 and he has made five straight starts going six innings or more with three earned runs or less. Uehara has just two walks in that span and he will be a tough match-up for a Royals team that has gone cold offensively. Luke Hochevar was rattled easily in allowing eight runs in two innings in his first start this year and that came against a very tame A's offense. Baltimore has won two of three in this series and the Orioles have completely dominated this series the last several years. The Royals are 1-7 in the last eight games and the storybook start appears to be fading fast. Meanwhile the Orioles are hitting .299 over the last ten games and the bullpen has shown marked improvement with George Sherrill rebounding. This is a great match-up for the Orioles and despite the odd line, Baltimore is the clear play.
Michael Cannon
Cincinnati +145 at SAN DIEGO
The Blue Jays come through yesterday and I’m now on a 24-11-1 run with my last 36 free plays!
Take the Reds as the big road dog for the win today over the Padres.
Interesting matchup here as the struggling Jake Peavy goes against a team he’s never lost against in his career.
That doesn’t mean I’m willing to pay this price to back him.
In fact, I’m willing to look past anything Peavy has accomplished in his career until I see a shred of evidence that he’s not bothered anymore by having pitched in the WBC this year.
The right-hander is 0-4 with a 4.50 ERA in is last five starts.
He’ll be facing a Reds team that will start Bronson Arroyo, who is 5-2 despite a gaudy 7.02 ERA on the year.
Arroyo has pitched better on the road than at home this year, but 5-2 is 5-2 anyway you look at it. He’s obviously getting great run support and I look for that trend to continue today against the struggling Peavy.
Take the Reds as they grab the road win.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Vernon Croy
Take Cincinnati ML
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and we are getting solid value here today with the Reds. Jake Peavy (2-5, 4.30 ERA) is 0-4 with an ERA of 4.50 in his last 4 starts and the Padres are 0-5 in Peavy's last 5 starts. The Padres are just 1-4 in their last 5 games as a favorite and they are just 1-5 in their last 6 games after a win. The Reds are a perfect 4-0 in Arroyo's last 4 road starts and he has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of just 2.86 while averaging 7.1 innings per start. The Reds are a perfect 5-0 in Arroyo's last 5 starts as a dog of +110 to +150 and the Reds are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a dog of +110 to +150. The Padres are hitting just .225 as a team at home this season and the Reds are hitting .311 as a team over their last 7 games while averaging 7.1 rpg. Grab the value with the Reds who are 13-7 on the road this season as my MLB Free Play for Sunday.
Yankee Capper
Pittsburgh Pirates -105
San Francisco Giants -105
Detroit Tigers -135
Boston Red Sox -140
LT Profits
Colorado Rockies -110
Ubaldo Jimenez of the Colorado Rockies may have mediocre overall numbers, but he is returning to his normal great form lately and he gives the Rockies the edge over the Pittsburgh Pirates this afternoon.
Jimenez may be 3-4 with a 4.72 ERA, but he has now recorded three consecutive Quality Starts, posting a 2.14 ERA with an excellent 0.95 WHIP over those starts. He is also a perfect two for two in Quality Starts vs. this Pirates team over the last two seasons, and both of those efforts came in the altitude of Colorado.
Now Zach Duke is 4-3 with a 2.52 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP for Pittsburgh, but he has been simply awful in his last three starts vs. the Rockies. He allowed 19 earned runs and 30 baserunners in just 16 innings over those three starts, with two of the outings coming here in Pittsburgh. Should Zach struggles against Colorado again, do not expect much help from a struggling Pirates bullpen that has posted a collective 5.08 ERA over the last 10 games.
Finally, the Pirates are still just 4-14 in their last 18 games even after winning here last night, so look for them to return to their losing ways here.
Pick: Rockies -110
Mike Rose
Los Angeles Lakers -13
The Rockets kept their championship aspirations alive by playing very tough defense at home in Game 6; it isnt every day you see the Lakers score a feeble 80 points. Houston held LA to an atrocious 35% shooting from the field, but gave up 15 offensive rebounds allowing the Lakers to stay close late in the game. Rockets G Aaron Brooks is having the series of his life averaging 18.3 PPG. He had another big game on Thursday going off for 26 points while grabbing three rebounds and dishing out four assists. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS their L/6 trips to the Staples Center, and theyre a woeful 2-10 ATS off a SU win as an underdog this season.
The Lakers didnt expect to be on the ropes at the beginning of this series, but thanks to a lack of offense, thats exactly where they find themselves in Game 7. Los Angeles averaged 106 PPG during the regular season, but has averaged just 99 points per game in this series. Lakers G Kobe Bryant has carried his team offensively averaging 29.6 PPG, which puts him at just under 30% of the Lakers entire scoring production. LA is 3-0 SU in this series when they puscore 100 points or more with two of those three contests being played at home. Los Angeles served up a 40-point woodshed beating in their Game 5 home match-up with the Rockets, and will look to protect its own house in this spot again tonight. The Lakers are 7-3 ATS in their L/10 meetings with the Rockets, and 14-5 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996.
History tells us that most teams respond when theyre on the road in an elimination game. However, this season has shown new trends with teams like the Miami Heat and Portland Trail Blazers getting blown out of the water. Look for the Rockets lack of depth inside to cost them here today much like it did in Game 5, and for the Lakers to blow them out of the playoffs by covering another big spread on their home floor.
EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
(970) Detroit Tigers -$165
(Listing Galarraga and Cahill)
We have cashed in two free winners in a row with the Tigers
and we will look to make it three straight as I ride them again
against the offensively weak Oakland A's. Lay the juice as
the Tigers get the sweep.
2009 Free Selections Record 72-61 (54.1%)
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
262 - 172 run 60 % 7-2 last 9
SUN SF Giants Sat TY Boston Red Sox
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Free Selection from Totals4U
Sunday's free selection: Cincinnati/San Diego over 7 1/2
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