SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Cleveland (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) at (3) Orlando (9-6 SU, 7-8 ATS)
The Cavaliers, who had to battle to earn a home split in the first two games of the Eastern Conference finals, make the trip to Amway Arena for Game 3 against the Magic, who are coming off a stunning Game 2 loss.
Cleveland beat Orlando 96-95 Friday night, winning on LeBron James’ highlight reel catch-and-shoot 3-pointer off an inbounds pass with just one second left on the clock, but the Cavaliers failed to cover as a heavy nine-point home chalk. James finished with 35 points and five assists, though he also committed six turnovers as Cleveland blew all of a 23-point first-half lead before eking out the victory. Mo Williams scored 19 and Zydrunas Ilgauskas had a double-double of 12 points and 15 rebounds.
The Cavs were yielding just 78.1 ppg in the first two rounds of the playoffs, but have now given up 107 and 95 points, respectively, to the Magic.
Rashard Lewis paced Orlando with 23 points, hitting 4 of 7 from 3-point range, and Hedo Turkoglu had 21 points, including a 3-pointer that tied the game at 93 and a 12-foot jumper in the lane that gave the Magic a 95-93 lead with one second remaining. Dwight Howard had just 10 points but grabbed 18 rebounds.
The Magic are on a 12-1 ATS tear in this rivalry, including cashing in five of the last six meetings in Orlando. This year, Orlando is 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS against the Cavaliers. The underdog is now 10-3 ATS in the last 11 clashes, and the road team is on an 8-3 ATS roll.
Cleveland is 31-14 SU (25-20 ATS) on the road this year, including 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in the playoffs. Orlando is 36-11 SU (26-21 ATS) at home, including 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) in the postseason.
The Cavaliers are 31-5 SU in their last 36 starts and remain on virtually nothing but positive ATS runs, including 11-3 overall, 6-2 in the Eastern Conference finals, 40-20 after a non-cover, 5-1 on the road, and 10-2 after a SU win. However, Mike Brown’s troops are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 starts against Southeast Division squads.
The Magic are on ATS upticks of 8-3 overall (4-0 in their last four), 7-1 against the Central Division, 5-2 after a spread-cover and a lengthy 50-21-1 following a SU loss, but they are just 5-15 ATS as a home chalk of less than five points.
The first two games of this series cleared the posted price, and the over for Cleveland is on rolls of 5-0 in the conference finals and 5-1 with the Cavs an underdog. But the Cavs remain on “under” streaks of 4-0 on the road, 6-2 after a SU win and 16-7 as a playoff pup. Likewise, the under for Orlando is on runs 22-10 overall, 4-1 at home, 6-1 with the Magic a playoff chalk and 26-10 overall with the Magic laying points at home.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in 11 of the last 17 meetings in Orlando (11-5-1).
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
INTERLEAGUE
Philadelphia (23-18) at N.Y. Yankees (25-18)
After another walk-off victory on Saturday, the Yankees send southpaw C.C. Sabathia (4-3, 3.43 ERA) to the hill looking to take the rubber game against the Phillies and lefty Cole Hamels (2-2, 4.95) as these two wrap up their weekend interleague series at new Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.
New York got a two-run homer from Alex Rodriguez to tie the game in the ninth inning on Saturday and Melky Cabrera delivered the game-ending RBI single to give the Yankees a 5-4 victory, their fourth walk-off victory on this 10-game homestand. New York has won 10 of its last 11 and is 8-1 on the homestand and has cashed in nine of its last 10 as a favorite. The Yankees are also on positive runs of 38-19 at home, 55-21 when hosting N.L. opponents, 11-4 against lefty starters, 55-21 at home versus left-handers and 35-16 on Sundays.
Philadelphia is 7-2 on its 10-game road trip that wraps up today, and is 15-6 on the highway this season. The defending champs are on additional streaks of 24-10 on the road dating back to 2008, 19-8 against left-handed starters, 6-2 on the road against southpaws, 5-2 against the A.L. East, 8-4 as a road ‘dog, 39-17 against teams with a winning record and 61-30 on Sundays, but they have dropped 19 of their last 27 interleague games on the highway.
New York has won five of the last seven clashes with the Phillies.
Hamels seems to be rounding into form after battling injuries to start the season. He’s 2-0 in his last three starts with a 2.84 ERA and on Tuesday he gave up three runs on five hits in six innings of a 4-3 road win in Cincinnati. Hamels has one career start against the Yankees and gave up two runs on six hits in seven innings of a 5-0 loss back in 2006. Philadelphia has won four of his last five road starts, but they’ve dropped his last four games when he’s gone off as the ‘dog.
Sabathia has looked like the ace the Yankees need lately, going 3-0 in his last three outings with a 1.12 ERA. On Tuesday he allowed one run on three hits over seven innings of a 9-1 victory over the Orioles. The big lefty faced the Phillies once last season as a member of the Brewers and allowed five runs on six hits in 3 2/3 innings of a 5-2 loss.
The under is 4-1 in Hamels’ last five road starts and 10-3-1 in his last 14 starts overall, including 6-2-1 in his last nine against teams with winning records. For Sabathia, the over is 4-0 in his last four outings in front of the home fans.
For the Phillies, the over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 road games and 10-4 in their last 14 as an underdog, but the under is on streaks of 6-1 in interleague play against southpaws and 5-1-1 against the A.L. East. The Yankees are on several “under” streaks, including 10-4-2 against left-handers, 5-1 against teams with winning records, 4-0 on Sundays, 6-0 in interleague games and 6-1 in interleague home games. Finally, the under is 6-1 in the last seven Phillies Yankees contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
N.Y. Mets (23-19) at Boston (25-18)
The Mets will try to make it a three-game sweep at Fenway Park in Boston when they send Tim Redding (0-0, 3.00 ERA) to the mound to face the Red Sox and veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (5-2, 3.59).
New York scored two runs in the top of the ninth and held on to beat the Red Sox 3-2 on Saturday after scoring a 5-3 win Friday night. The Mets opened this current 10-game road trip with three straight wins in San Francisco, then proceeded to drop four in a row before winning the last two nights.
The Red Sox had just swept the Blue Jays at Fenway before the Mets arrived, allowing just five runs in three games to A.L. East-leading Toronto. Even with the two losses to New York, the Boston pitching staff has given up three runs or fewer in six of its last seven games overall and seven of its last nine at home.
Going back to 1999, the home team in this interleague rivalry has won nine of the last 13 with Boston winning four of the last six played at Fenway.
The Mets are on upticks of 14-6 in interleague contests, 9-3 against interleague teams with winning records and 7-1 in interleague roadies. Meanwhile, Boston is riding positive runs of 22-12 overall, 80-35 at Fenway park, 52-18 in interleague play, 43-14 when hosting N.L. squads and 26-7 against N.L. East teams.
Redding made his first start as a Met on Monday in Los Angeles and gave up two runs on two hits in six innings but New York fell 3-2 to the Dodgers. Last time he faced the Red Sox was July 2005 when he was a starter for the Yankes and allowed six runs on four hits in just one inning of a 17-1 loss at Fenway.
Wakefield pitched a gem his last outing, giving up one run on five hits in eight innings of a 2-1 win over the Blue Jays on Tuesday. The Red Sox have won each of his three home starts this season and he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of the three. The veteran knuckleballer hasn’t faced the Mets since 2001 when he allowed three runs on five hits in six innings of a 4-2 loss in New York. Boston is 36-15 when Wakefield is a home favorite and 9-2 when he faces N.L. squads.
New York is on several “under” runs, including 5-0-1 overall, 5-0 in interleague play and 5-1-1 against right-handed starters, but the under is 18-6-2 in the Mets’ last 26 interleague road games. Boston is on a plethora of “under” streaks that include 7-1-1 overall, 5-0-1 in interleague home games, 6-1 as a favorite, 17-5-3 on Sundays and 6-1 as a favorite, but the over is 8-2-1 in Wakefield’s last 11 starts and 16-6-1 when he starts as a home favorite. Finally, in this series the under is 10-2-2 in the last 14 clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
Steve Merril
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Under 8
The Jays hope to turn things around in game three of their series with Atlanta at Turner Field. Going for the Jays is Scott Richmond who is 4-2 with a 3.64 ERA so far with four Unders in eight outings this year. Richmond is coming off a seven inning, five hit effort against the White Sox, striking out seven and walking one in the no decision. Richmond hasn’t faced Atlanta in his career, but the Braves are scuffling a bit offensively, being held to 1 run in two games before last night. They are averaging just 3.3 runs and a .249 average against right handed starters this season. Atlanta sends Jair Jurrjens to the hill with his 4-2 record and a 1.96 ERA. Jurrjens has been an Under machine, going 7-2 in that category. He is coming off an 8-1 victory over Colorado, going seven innings and giving up just the one run while striking out eight and walking only three. The righthander faced Toronto once last year, winning 4-0 over the Jays and going eight strong innings, while giving up only three hits. Jurrjens struck out three and walked one in that outing. Six of the eight Jays who have faced him are hitless against Jurrjens.
Charlie Scott
New York Mets vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox -1.5
As You guys know, I'm a Met Head and have been a Met fan for life. However, I'm also a big fan of Money and my Money is on the Red Sox and their wiffle ball pitcher Wakefield. The Mets beat the Red Sox Saturday Night with a controversial 2 run HR with 2 out in the top of the ninth, and unlike the Met team, the Red Sox showed emotion and were pissed off ! Sunday is the last day of a 10 day road trip for the Mets that started in San Francisco. The Mets are banged up, have won 2 games out of the 3 game series already from the Sox, and just want to go home. The Mets haven't shown up on Sundays this season going 1-4 with 1 rain out so far this season on Sundays. Play the Red Sox on the -1.5 Run Line
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Philadelphia w/Hamels vs. Sabathia
The Phillies and Yankees wrap up a three game series in the House the George built when Cole Hamels takes on C.C. Sabathia Sunday afternoon in the Bronx. Hamels enters today's game knowing he is 13-4 in his career team starts during the month of May, including 8-2 on the road. On the flip side, Sabathia is 1-3 with a 6.61 ERA in his career team starts against Philadelphia. Look for the Phillies to improve to 17-4 on Sundays, their best day of the week, here today.
Nelly
Florida + over Tampa Bay
The Rays have posted huge numbers in the first two games of this series but a flat spot should be expected on Sunday as the Marlins try to avoid the sweep. With the Marlins slumping there is great value on one of the best pitchers in the National League. Josh Johnson has 52 strikeouts and just 13 walks and Florida is 6-3 in his starts. At home he owns a 1.24 ERA while allowing a total of just ten earned runs over his last six starts. Florida's bullpen has also been solid with opposing batters hitting just .247 on the season. Tampa Bay is 1-5 in the last six starts for James Shields and he has not come close to the level of success he had last season. Shields has allowed 24 hits and ten runs in his last three starts and he has been a much worse pitcher away from home. With Troy Percival hitting the DL the Rays bullpen has some vulnerability in the late innings and Tampa Bay has had trouble closing out series, going 3-8 in the third games of series this season. After back-to-back lopsided losses Florida needs Johnson to step up and he has been more than capable of doing just that this season.
JIM FEIST
CLEVELAND INDIANS / CINCINNATI REDS
Take: CINCINNATI REDS
Reason: The battle of Ohio continues here on Sunday. The clubs have split the first two games with the Reds winning on Friday and the Indians on Saturday. The Reds are in the thick of things in the NL Central 3 1/2 games back of the Brewers. 1B Joey Votto leads the Reds with a .366 BA. The club is hitting .254 overall with 42 HR's in 41 games. The pitching staff has been solid with a 4.01 team ERA and 1.331 WHIP. Johnny Cueto leads the starters in ERA with a 2.35 mark and has just 13 walks versus 40 strike outs. Cueto also has a great WHIP of just 1.006 in eight starts. The Indians start today's action in last place in the AL Central. The hitting has been good and the pitching dismal. The tribe is hitting .272 as a team and is led by C Victor Martinez who is batting a sizzling .391 with seven HR's and 30 RBI. The problem has been pitching, where the club has a team ERA of 5.56. Cliff Lee has pitched in bad luck with just a 2-5 mark while having a very good 2.90 ERA. Two good pitchers today, but the rubber match goes to the Reds.
DAVE COKIN
COLORADO ROCKIES / DETROIT TIGERS
Take DETROIT TIGERS
It's been a long road back for Dontrelle Willis, and it culminated with a fabulous effort earlier this week that earned the lefty a great win. Willis is back to his old mechanically flawed self, and while he may break all the "rules" with his screwy delivery, this is what seems to work for the D-Train. I'm not in complete buy mode off one good game, but it's a start and Willis rates an advantage today against Jason Hammel of the Rockies. I'll give the lean to the Tigers to win the series rubber match.
Rob Vinciletti
Detroit vs. Chicago
Play Chicago
On Sunday the free play is on the Chicago Blackhawks.Game 14 at 3:05 eastern.The Blackhawks made this a series off there 4-3 OT win on Friday night.Now they have the confidence going into game 4.They also have history on their side.Home teams in this round down 2-1 off a home win are 18-6 all-time.Look for Chicago to get the equalizer today.Take the Chicago Blackhawks.
Jeff Benton
For Sunday's free play, we’ll back the Rays against the in-state rival Marlins.
The Marlins are a hard team to figure out. They're either red-hot or ice-cold. There's usually no middle ground for them.
They started the season 11-1, then lost seven in a row. The past two weeks, it's been the bad Marlins that have been taking the field, losing 11 of their last 13. And that's continuing an even longer run in which they are 8-24 since their 11-1 start.
The miserable Marlins should show up for a least another day against Rays ace James Shields. The right-hander is 0-2 in his last three starts, but he hasn't been pitching badly, with a 3.26 ERA over that span. Shields pitched 8 1/3 scoreless innings against the A's in his last outing, but only received a no-decision for his effort.
Tampa Bay started the year off slowly, maybe suffering a little hangover after its magical World Series run last season, but the team is starting to play like it did in 2008, winning three straight and seven of its last nine to climb over .500.
The Rays also have owned the Marlins in interleague play, winning seven in a row and outscoring their in-state rivals 68-19.
Josh Johnson is no slouch on the mound for Florida, at 3-1 with a 2.54 ERA, but the Rays are on a roll, while the Marlins are in a rut.
Shields has suffered some tough luck this year, going 1-3 in his last six starts despite a 2.91 ERA, but that will change today. Tampa Bay is 10-1 in Shields' last 11 Sunday starts. Go with the Rays.
3♦ TAMPA BAY
Matt Rivers
For Sunday take the number with the Giants.
Just like I said last week with Felix Hernandez in the winner I gave out on Anaheim right now, the guy certainly can be a total stud that can shut down any opponent but a bad team, which Seattle certainly is, cannot be laying a relatively large number like this, period.
The Giants are obviously a fairly awful squad that a lot of the time is offensively inept but once again bad teams just cannot be laying big prices.
Barry Zito is no longer a guy that can be fully trusted as the Cy Young days are long gone. But the lefty has been a lot better this season than last and I can see Zito hold his own today. It's not like Ichiro and these M's are exactly lighting up the scoreboard and should just tee off inning after inning.
San Francisco has enough offensively, maybe, to scratch across a few runs. Guys like Rowand, Molina, Sandoval and a few others are at least decent enough. No doubt collectively the G-Men are bad but Hernandez was hit fairly hard by the Angels last week and has not been all that of late.
In the end the Mariners are probably too good today as Hernandez should hurl seven or so strong innings but bad teams laying big numbers are a must goes against and that is the case right here.
Jake Timlin
Take the Cardinals at home minus the cheap chalk.
In what might be one of the easiest calls of the day I fully expect for the Cardinals to sweep the Royals today. You see for the Cardinals not only are they getting solid pitching as the starters are a perfect 5-0 with an ERA of under 0.50, but the offense has not been helping out scoring 5 runs in each of the past two games which has lead to a five straight wins for St. Louis.
Meanwhile, for the Royals after starting the season red hot Kansas City has crashed back down to earth having lost their last 4 games and 11 of their last 14 games.
Flat out, given the pitching St. Louis is getting mixed in with the fact they are playing light’s out I only see a Cardinals sweep today as they make easy work of the Royals once again.
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
Sports Gambling Hotline
Cleveland at ORLANDO
Saturday winner on the Lakers-Denver UNDER the total, now 8-1 the last 9 days with our comp plays.
NBA action today, and we look for the Cavaliers and Magic to play their 3rd OVER in as many games.
Coming into this series, both teams had been on pronounced UNDER streaks, but thus far in this series it has been the offense that has led the way, and both finals have landed OVER the total.
We just get the feeling that the change in venues is going to help Orlando's long distance game tonight, and we are going to see a few more three-pointers ring up on the scoreboard, pushing Game Three OVER the total as well.
5 of the last 9 between the teams have played HIGH, and we think this one will as well.
Play on the OVER in the Eastern Conference Finals.
1♦ OVER
Karl Garrett
Pittsburgh at WHITE SOX
Saturday comp play winner from the G-Man as the underdog Rockies come through at Detroit.
Now 4-1 the last 5 days for free!
On the diamond today, look for Mark Buehrle to continue his stingy ways against Pittsburgh.
Buehrle is 6-1 on the year, with a 2.77 ERA, and a closer inside of that mark shows the quick-working southpaw with a perfect 4-0 mark at home, and a 1.67 home ERA!
The Pirates bats have been kept quiet lately, as last night's game made it 4 straight UNDERS, and UNDERS in 7 of the last 11 for Pittsburgh. (as the Bucs have been UNDER in 3 of their last 4, and 6 of their last 11)
Pittsburgh has twiced faced Buehrle in inter-league play, and they have not been able to solve him, as Buehrle has worked 16 innings while allowing only 3 runs to score, while going 2-0 the last 2 years.
Jeff Karstens is adequate enough to keep the White Sox respectable, so let's play this Pittsburgh-Chicago game UNDER the posted total on the south side on Sunday.
1♦ UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
Texas -110 at HOUSTON
FREE winner coming your way today as we play the Rangers on the road in Houston, taking on their in-state rivals in the Astros.
Something about playing their in-stat rivals really gets the Rangers going. They have won the first two games of this series and they've won nine of the last 13 they've played against the Astros. We'll go ahead and play Texas in this matchup today to make it a three-game sweep.
Brandon McCarthy (3-2, 5.60 ERA) is on the mound for the Rangers, facing Houston lefty Mike Hampton (2-3, 5.23 ERA). McCarthy has faced the Astros once in his career and was spectacular, giving up one run on four hits in six innings of a 14-1 easy win for Texas.
Houston has lost five of Hampton's last six starts, including Tuesday when he gave up two runs on three hits and went only four innings of a 4-2 loss to the Brewers. The Astros haven't won a home game with Hampton on the hill this season, going 0-4.
The Rangers are playing some good baseball, and if they hadn't made that ugly three-game stop in Detroit, they'd be on a hell of a run. They've won 14 of their last 19 overall and they are 6-1 in their last seven as a favorite.
Meanwhile, Houston is just 22-50 in their last 72 interleague games as a 'dog and 1-7 in their last eight at home against teams with winning records.
Play Texas to get this one and continue to dominate their in-state rival.
4♦ TEXAS
Red Dog Sports
Toronto at Atlanta
Play: Under 8
The Braves have won the first two games in the series by 1-0 and 4-3. Jair Jurrgens has an ERA of 1.96 for Atlanta with 1 over and 7 unders this year. Richmond has an ERA of 3.64 and the Blue Jays have 36 unders, 17 overs and a push in their last 54 on Sunday. The Braves have played under 18-8-1 in their last 27 Interleague games. It looks like another under for Atlanta and Toronto on Sunday.