Chris Jordan
Philadelphia at NY YANKEES -155
Those walk-off wins certainly take a lot out of teams; especially in the Bronx. It did the Minnesota Twins, and it will the Philadelphia Phillies today in this matinee.
"Ace" C.C. Sabathia toes the slab today, and that's good enough for me, quite frankly, as he's found his groove and is in the rhythm the Yanks hoped he'd be by now.
He's gone 3-0 in his last three outings with a 1.12 ERA, and comes in after a dominating performance on Tuesday, when he allowed one run on three hits over seven innings of a 9-1 victory over the Orioles.
Philadelphia has lost Cole Hamels' last four games when he’s gone off as the underdog.
Let's take the home team here.
1♦ YANKEES
Drew Gordon
Cleveland -120 at CINCINNATI
Solid Free Play winner on the Twins over the Brewers 6-2 Saturday, as part of my 3-0 SWEEP across the board (incl. free & paid plays)! We keep it rolling on the Diamond Sunday...
I told you in the beginning of the season, that it would take Cliff Lee a couple starts to get his mojo back, and quite frankly, I was dead-on. At this point though, there's no question he's pitching like the Cy Young Award winner he is, posting 1.17 ERA over his last 3 starts (going 1-1 overall, due in large part to lack of run support). He's been fantastic of late, and I'm expecting that to continue this afternoon.
Part of the reason I'm liking Lee in this spot has to do with the Reds struggles at home against lefties, going just 2-6 thus far. Not only that, but they've had a hell of time scoring runs against southpaws, averaging just 3.7 runs per game against them. The fact Brandon Phillips hurt his thumb yesterday also doesn't bode well for this Cincy club, as they can ill afford to lose their RBI leader (34), especially against the likes of Cliff Lee!
Finally, let's discuss Johnny Cueto, who's coming off his first loss in May. He got tagged for 4 runs in 7 innings against the Phillies Tuesday, and while some are expecting a bounce back here, I not convinced. He's going to have ZERO room for error against Lee, and his 1-2 record and 3.33 ERA at home (as compared to 3-0, 1.35 ERA away) is nothing to write home about. In the end, Lee finally gets rewarded for his hard work, as the Indians builds off their 7-6 win Saturday with another solid effort here this afternoon.
Take Cleveland behind Lee over Cincinnati and Cueto in this MLB match up.
2♦ CLEVELAND
JACK JONES
Tampa Bay Rays -118
Josh Johnson has pitched incredibly for the Marlins so far this year, but equally impressive has been the Rays' bats over their past 4 games, where they've belted at least 6 runs and scored in the double-digits twice -- both times against the Marlins. Even if Johnson finds a way to cool Tampa's bats, the Marlins' bullpen has been terrible, especially at home this season. As a squad they are 2-5 in Florida with a 6.55 ERA and have blown 6 of 9 save chances on their home field. Tampa starter, James Shields, should be able to keep up with whatever Johnson can hold the Rays to, and when it comes to the later innings, Tampa Bay has a clear edge.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros
The Astros have not been a great home team but they also have not been swept at home all season. After back-to-back narrow losses Friday and Saturday including an extra-innings affair Houston should come out ready to play for Sunday’s finale in the opening Lone Star interleague series. Texas is a banged up team with Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, and Frank Francisco all unavailable for yesterday’s game and Josh Hamilton should be rested today. The Astros have played well on Sundays, winning 16 of the last 21 games to wrap up the week. Texas is just a .500 team on the road this season and having wrapped up the series last night the Rangers could letdown for this game, the sixth consecutive road game for Texas.
Brandon McCarthy has a winning record this season but he owns a 6.95 ERA in road games. McCarthy has allowed at least three runs in all but one of his eight starts this season and in road starts his WHIP is 1.91 while opponents are batting .320. Over his three most recent starts McCarthy has an ERA of 7.00 and he will be tough to trust against an Astros lineup that is actually hitting well in recent games. Houston is batting .304 over the last ten games and they have lost three one-run games in that span so they are close to putting together a much better record. The Texas bullpen has also been a big problem area this season outside of Francisco, as the Rangers feature an ERA of 4.85 among relievers.
Mike Hampton’s comeback attempt has not been an overwhelming success but he pitching respectably. He has 33 strikeouts in just 43 innings and in five of his eight starts he has allowed three runs or less.Over the last ten games the Rangers are hitting just .251 overall including just .233 against left-handed pitching despite having success against southpaws early in April. The Rangers are also hitting just .244 on the road this season. This is a critical game for Houston after dropping the first two of this series and the Astros are playing much better than the record indicates.
Scott Delaney
I just don't believe the BoSox will let any team from New York come into Fenway and score a sweep. New York scored two runs in the top of the ninth and held on to beat the Red Sox 3-2 yesterday, and that won't sit right today when they take the field.
We have Timmy Wakefield going, and I'll bank on the knuckle-ball specialist to silence the Mets' bats in this one. The Red Sox have won each of his three home starts this season while he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of those games. Boston is a stellar 9-2 when Wake faces N.L. squads, so I'll side with him here.
BOSTON RED SOX
Craig Davis
Finally lost a free play for the first time in seven tries yesterday as the Nuggets failed to deliver. But I've still nailed six of seven and plan to make it seven of eight today with the OVER in the Cleveland/Orlando Game 3 matchup.
The first two games in this series have gone OVER the posted price and there's no reason to think Game 3 should be any different. Both teams average 100 PPG for the season, shooting better than 45% from the field. It appears that defense has gone out the window in the first two games of this series and after seeing Cleveland score at least 97 points in 6 of their last 7 playoff games, I think it's safe to say the Cavs have found their offensive rhythm.
Orlando has surpassed the century mark in two of its last three games, and still scored 95 in the other outing. No doubt both teams push 95 points today, and I wouldn't be surprised to see both of these teams hit 100 again.
Free play winner #7 of 8 is on the Cleveland/Orlando game OVER the total.
2♦ CAVS/MAGIC OVER
Wunderdog
Colorado at Detroit
Pick: Detroit -160
Colorado ended Detroit's six-game winning streak last game. That was a fluke and I really like the Tigers to rebound here with Dontrelle Willis on the mound. Detroit is 15-6 at home while Colorado has won just 10 of 25 of the road. The Rockies are just 2-15 the past two seasons on the road after a five-game stretch of hitting .225 or worse. The Tigers are 28-10 the past three seasons in interleague games. Jason Hammel has posted a 5.75 ERA in his last three starts and I think he's going to struggle quite a bit against this potent Tigers' lineup. I look for Detroit to bounce back with a win here.