SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA FINALS
Orlando (12-8 SU, 10-10 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (13-6 SU, 11-8 ATS)
The Lakers resume their pursuit of a 15th championship when they host Game 2 of the NBA Finals at Staples Center against the Magic, who will attempt to bounce back from a blowout loss in the best-of-7 series opener.
Los Angeles hammered Orlando 100-75 in Game 1 Thursday as a six-point home chalk, winning and cashing for the third straight contest behind a defense that allowed just 34 points over the middle two quarters, while the Lakers scored 60 in that same stretch. Kobe Bryant racked up 40 points, eight rebounds and eight assists, Pau Gasol had 16 points and eight rebounds, and Lamar Odom came off the bench and notched a double-double of 11 points and 14 boards.
Mickael Pietrus had 14 points and Hedo Turkoglu 13 for Orlando, but star center Dwight Howard made just one field goal in six tries and was held to 12 points -- almost 10 below his playoff average – to go with 15 rebounds. The Magic shot a dismal 29.9 percent from the floor, while allowing 46.1 percent shooting from the Lakers, and they got clobbered on the boards 55-41, giving up 15 offensive rebounds.
Orlando, which won and covered against the Lakers in two regular-season meetings, is still 4-2 ATS (3-3 SU) in the last six clashes in this rivalry. Additionally, the underdog remains on a 6-1 ATS run, and the road team has cashed in five of those seven meetings.
Los Angeles is 45-7 SU (26-26 ATS) at home this season, including 9-2 SU (6-5 ATS) in the postseason. Orlando is 32-20 SU (31-20-1 ATS) on the road for the year, but just 5-6 SU and ATS in the postseason. Also, the Magic are now 0-5 SU all-time in the NBA Finals, having gotten swept by Houston in 1995.
Furthermore, L.A. has claimed 16 consecutive playoff series when winning Game 1, and Phil Jackson-coached teams are a whopping 43-0 in playoff series when winning Game 1.
Along with their current 3-0 SU and ATS run, the Lakers are on positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 overall, 8-2 after a two-day break, 5-2 at home and 9-4 against the Eastern Conference. However, they are still just 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 NBA Finals starts, and they carry additional ATS skids of 3-9 after a SU win and 3-10 against the Southeast Division.
Despite Thursday’s ugly defeat, the Magic remain on ATS upticks of 7-2 overall, 17-8 as a road ‘dog, 20-8 against the Western Conference, 37-14 after a SU loss and 41-20-1 following an ATS setback.
Game 1 fell miles short of the 205½-point posted price, and the total has now stayed low in five of the last six Staples Center meetings between these squads. Additionally, the under for Los Angeles is on rolls of 9-2 overall, 6-0 at home, 28-9 when favored, 8-0 with the Lakers a playoff chalk and 5-0 against the Eastern Conference. Finally, the under for Orlando is on runs of 5-0 against the West, 8-2 after a non-cover, 7-2 after a SU loss and 16-6 when playing on two days’ rest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (32-22) at L.A. Dodgers (39-19)
The Phillies will try to salvage a split of their four-game set in Hollywood with southpaw Antonio Bastardo (1-0, 1.50 ERA) making his second career start, going up against Dodgers’ lefty Randy Wolf (3-1, 3.21) at Dodger Stadium.
Andre Ethier hit a 12-inning homer on Saturday to give Los Angeles a 3-2 victory, the second straight walk-off hit for Ethier and the Dodgers who rallied with two runs in the ninth inning on Friday to beat the Phillies 4-3. Los Angeles is now 11-1 in one-run games inside Dodger Stadium.
Despite blowing the last two games, Philadelphia has still won seven of nine overall and five of seven on the road. The Phillies also continue to lead the major leagues with a 20-8 road record (12-4 in the last 16), and they’re on additional upswings of 56-28 overall, 36-18 on the highway, 17-8 against the N.L. West and 37-16 versus winning teams.
The Dodgers are on upticks of 37-17 overall, 42-15 at Dodger Stadium, 6-1 against the N.L. East and 10-4 versus winning teams. Also, the Dodgers’ 22-7 home record is the best in the majors, as is their 39-19 overall mark.
Los Angeles has a 4-2 series advantage this season, but the Phillies are 10-5 in the last 15 head-to-head battles (playoffs included). However, Philadelphia is now just 3-8 in its last 11 games in Hollywood. The home team is 14-5 in this rivalry (playoffs included) since the start of last season.
Bastardo shut down the Padres in San Diego in his major-league debut on Tuesday, allowing just one run on four hits in six innings, striking out five and walking just one in a 10-5 Philadelphia victory.
The Dodgers have won five straight with Wolf on the mound, including Tuesday’s 6-5 come-from-behind victory over the Diamondbacks, even though Wolf gave up all five runs on seven hits in six innings and left trailing 5-1. Wolf shut down the Phillies back on May 13 when he allowed just one run on three hits in six innings of a 9-2 road victory.
Los Angeles is 9-1 in Wolf’s last 10 starts as a home favorite, 6-1 in his last seven at home overall and 4-1 in his last five against N.L. East teams.
The under for is on surges of 14-3-1 overall, 7-1- on the road, 7-1 as an underdog, 8-0 against southpaws and 6-0 against teams with winning records. For the Dodgers, the under is on streaks of 5-1 overall (all at home), 5-0-1 against N.L. East teams and 9-3-1 as a home chalk. Finally, the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these clubs, but the over is still 10-5-2 in the last 17 clashes in Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Texas (32-23) at Boston (33-23)
The Rangers conclude a six-game East Coast road trip today in Boston with veteran Vicente Padilla (3-3, 5.57 ERA) going up against Red Sox righty Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-3, 7.17) at Fenway Park.
Red Sox lefty Jon Lester took a perfect game into the seventh inning last night and cruised to a complete-game 8-1 victory over the Rangers, allowing just two hits and two walks as Boston avenged a 5-1 loss to Texas in Friday’s series opener.
The Sox are on hot streaks of 82-36 at home, 28-12 when playing on grass and 20-8 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Texas is still on runs of 22-12 overall and 4-1 on Sunday, but it is just 3-8 in its last 11 games against teams with winning records.
The Red Sox dominated Texas last year, winning nine of 10 head-to-head meetings, and they’ve now won nine of the last 10 meetings inside Fenway Park. Going back further, Boston is 26-10 in the last 36 overall against Texas and 35-10 in the last 45 clashes at Fenway.
Padilla is 2-1 in his last three starts but he got drilled on Tuesday in New York as the Yankees got to him for seven runs on seven hits in 3 2/3 innings and beat the Rangers 12-3. The veteran right-hander hadn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his previous four outings, including road wins in Chicago and Seattle.
The Rangers have lost three straight with Padilla on the mound against the Red Sox, including two outings back in 2007 when he gave up a combined nine runs (eight earned) in 12 1/3 innings. On the bright side, Texas is 5-2 in Padilla’s last seven starts overall, 16-5 in his last 21 road outings, 10-2 in his last 12 road starts against teams with a winning record and 5-1 in Padilla’s last six when he starts as an underdog.
Matsuzaka looked sharp on Tuesday as he held the Tigers to one run on six hits in five innings of a 5-1 victory, his first of the season. Boston had lost each of his first four outings of 2009 as the right-hander gave up 16 runs in 16 1/3 innings. The Red Sox are 3-0 in Dice-K’s three career starts versus the Rangers, including a 10-0 win in 2008 when he blanked Texas for seven innings. Boston is 32-11 in Matsuzaka’s last 43 starts overall, 25-8 in his last 33 as a favorite and 9-3 in his last 12 when facing A.L. West teams.
With Padilla on the mound, the Rangers are on “over” streaks of 27-11-2 on the road, 36-16-2 as an underdog, 10-3-1 against the A.L. East and 5-2 as a road ‘dog. With Matsuzaka pitching, the Red Sox have stayed under the total in four of five overall, seven of nine at home, 13 of 19 as a favorite and four of five on Sunday.
For Texas as a team, the “under” is on runs of 14-5-1 overall, 11-3 on the road, 8-2 as a road ‘dog, 12-3-1 as a ‘dog overall and 5-0 on Sundays. Boston is also on a plethora of “under” stretches that include 9-2 overall, 12-3-1 on Sundays, 5-1 at home, 5-0-1 against the A.L. West, 11-4 as a favorite and 9-3 against teams with winning records. Finally, the under has been the play in five of the last six between these two, including the first two games this weekend.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
Steve Merril
Colorado Rockies vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Colorado Rockies +1.5
The Rockies look to put up double digit runs in their fourth straight game on Sunday as they play game three of their four game series in St. Louis. Colorado has easily taken the first two in this series by a combined score of 21-5 and they now send Ubaldo Jimenez to the hill where he is 3-6 with a 4.11 ERA this season. He is coming off a road start in Houston where he gave up just one run in six innings. Jimenez faced the Cardinals twice last season and St. Louis is hitting just .231 with Khalil Greene (2-12), Skip Schumaker (0-5), Jason LaRue (0-2), and Chris Duncan (0-2) all struggling against the righty. Going for St. Louis is Joel Pineiro who is 5-5 with a 3.86 ERA this season. He has lost two straight decisions, falling to Kansas City and at San Francisco. Pineiro only lasted four innings against the Giants, giving up six hits and four runs in that game. Colorado has not been friendly to him as he is 1-0, but has a terrible 7.36 ERA against them. Last year he faced them in Colorado and only managed to go three innings, giving up eight hits and three earned runs. The Rockies hit .500 against him with Brad Hawpe (4-5), Todd Helton (2-4), Yorvit Torrealba (1-2), Clint Barmes (1-2), and Chris Ianetta (2-2) doing the best in limited at-bats. The righthander has also dealt with back spasms this season which could be an issue today.
Cajun Sports
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Minnesota Twins
The third and final game of this three-game set will decide the series winner between the host Seattle Mariners and the visiting Minnesota Twins. Seattle was able to rebound and get a win on Saturday 2 to 1 was the final after losing on Friday night in extra innings 2 to 1 in ten. The Mariners will send Erik Bedard to the bump with his 4-2 W/L record and ERA of 2.37 on the year. If Bedard can pull off the win on Sunday that will be the first time he has won three consecutive starts in almost two years. Not a real confidence builder when you add the fact he has never defeated the Twins in his career, 0-5 W/L in nine trips to the bump with an ERA of 4.80. He has taken the hill twice this season versus the Twins but was not involved in either decision. The Twins will send Kevin Slowey to the hill with his record of 8-1 W/L and an ERA of 3.97. Slowey didn’t get his eighth win until August of last season he is now tied for second in the AL with those eight wins. Minnesota is 5-0 W/L their last five in game three of a series, 6-1 W/L when facing teams from the AL West, 4-1 W/L in Slowey’s last five starts overall and 5-1 W/L when Slowey is coming off a quality start in his last outing. Seattle has struggled against teams from the Central Division posting an 18-38 W/L record they are also 14-31 W/L their last forty-five when installed as a favorite of 150 or less. Bedard has also struggled as a favorite in this situation he is 2-5 W/L his last seven starts as a home favorite. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Twins win over the Mariners by 1.3 runs on Sunday at Safeco Field. Our Pitcher Efficiency Ratings Index also favors the Twins on Sunday with Slowey on the bump so take the visitor here as Minnesota gets the win and takes the series as well.
Graded Selection: 2* Minnesota Twins 4 Seattle Mariners 2
Craig Trapp
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
KC broke there losing streak yesterday but today TOR sends them back home with a loss. Pitching for TOR is Halladay, who is 8-3 in 13 starts against Kansas City, has three complete-game victories and a 1.32 ERA in his last four matchups with the Royals. Even better when Halladay pitches at home they win by more than 3 runs per game.
Kyle Davies goes for KC today but he has lost the last 4 straight starts. Control problems have killed him during that stretch where he is given up 12 walks in 24 innings. If that is not bad enough KC has lost 20 of last 26 games and scoring runs for this offense has been very poor.
Can't imagine that TOR doesn't blow out KC and Halladay might even pitch a complete game shut out. SCORE TOR 5 - KC 0
Mike Rose
Orlando Magic +6.5
For the first quarter and a half the Magic looked to be un-phased by the bright lights of the Finals, but in the end their inexperience bit them on the backside. After being such a great second half team in the postseason Orlando flopped in the second half putting up just 32 points. Magic C Dwight Howard had a disappointing night scoring just 12 points with 10 of those coming from the foul-line. Howard managed just one-of-six from the field, but posted his usual double-double adding 15 rebounds to his effort. Orlando has never won an NBA Finals game SU going 0-5 in its history. Tonight the Magic will look to build on a 5-6 ATS mark on the road in the postseason.
The Lakers sent a bold statement to the Magic and all the critics that have them as heavy favorites in this series scoring over 100-points for a seventh straight game. LA has been up and down the entire playoffs, but seems to have finally found its grove at the right time. Lakers G Kobe Bryant put up 40 points for the third time in his L/7 contests in Game 1 schooling the young Magic with his sweet jump-shot. Kobe had a near triple-double on Thursday adding eight rebounds and eight assists while blocking two shots defensively. The Lakers are 5-5 ATS on their home floor in the 2009 NBA playoffs and they hope to build on that to take a 2-0 series lead tonight.
Just when folks begin to doubt the Magic they seem to respond with a loud vengeance and have lost consecutive contests just once in these playoffs against the Boston Celtics. The Magic are 6-1 SU after a loss this postseason which is a stat that leads me to believe they will have a great bounce-back performance in Game 2. Look for the Magic to find new ways to defend Bryant while Howard has another 20/20 performance to tie the series heading to Orlando.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: San Francisco w/Lincecum vs Nolasco
The Giants and Marlins wrap up a three-games series when Tim Lincecum takes on Ricky Nolasco at Landshark Stadium this afternoon. Lincecum checks into today contest in commanding KW form where he has issued 7 walks against 44 strikeouts in his last five road starts. Meanwhile, Nolasco was recently called up from the minors after going 2-4 with a 10.37 ERA in his previous six starts. Back the better arm as the Giants improve to 13-4 on Sundays here today.
Jimmy The Moose
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Prediction: New York Mets
The Mets lost on Saturday and will be looking to win the series this afternoon. New York is 6-2 in their last 8 divisional games. The Mets are 19-8 in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. New York is 4-1 in Livan's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Nationals are 10-25 in their last 35 home games. In their last 8 games as a home favorite they are 2-6. The Mets are 13-4 in the last 17 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Mets -.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Royals/Blue Jays UNDER 8
Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay is 18-3 UNDER in home games vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season in his career. The average total score in these game is 5. I'll bet the Jays for 1 unit Sunday.
Rob Vinciletti
Colorado Rockies vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals
The Cards have been embarrassed in back to back home games vs Colorado.Today they will turn the tables.Pitching for the Cards is Joel Pinerio.In his home starts he has been solid with a 2.08 era winning 3 of his 4 starts.For the Rocks its U.Jimenez.On the road Jimenez has struggled with a 1-6 team start record.In his last 2 starts vs the Cards he has allowed 6 runs and 14 hits in 10 innings of work.The Rockies have lost 6 of 9 games as a road dog in this range,while the Cardinals are 8-3 as a home favorite in this range.St.Louis is also 5-2 this year off back to back losses.Stay at home with the Cards to avoid the sweep.
Carlo Campanella
Orlando Magic vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play Over 202
Since the start of the NBA Playoffs the Orlando Magic has only lost 3 games by double digits. The third time this happened was in Game #1 against the Lakers, as the Magic lost in LA, 75-100. The other two times that this occurred, the Magic went "Over" the Total in their next game. Combine that with the fact that Orlando has also gone "Over" in 13 of 17 games this season after a combined scored 175 points or less in their previous game! Sunday's Game #2 flys "Over."
7* Play On OVER
Wunderdog
Orlando at Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: UNDER 202
I really like the UNDER again. We played that as a 5-unit play in game one noting that both teams are averaging less than 200 points in the playoffs yet we saw a total of 206. That was the easiest bet of the playoffs thus far as the teams went UNDER the total by 31 points. Now the oddsmakers are in a real quandary. They realize their total for game one was way off but how far can they adjust it? They've shaved four points off that total but just two baskets isn't enough! The total in this game should be under 200 again and yet it's over 200. The Magic and Lakers have both been playing to totals well under their season average. The 20 Magic playoff games have averaged just 190 points, while the Lakers have averaged 198 in their 19 games. The average of the two is 194. The Lakers have played eight of their last nine playoff games at home UNDER the total and 28 of their last 37 as a favorite UNDER the total. The last six times these two teams have met in Los Angeles, the total has gone UNDER in all but one. Orlando is 12-3 UNDER this season vs. teams that average 103+ ppg while the Lakers are 13-5 UNDER at home vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 3+ ppg. I like the UNDER here.
Red Dog Sports
Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers
Play Under 8.5
Saunders and Porcello face each other and have combined for 2 overs and 4 unders in their last 6 combined starts. The Tigers have played unders in 9 of their last 10 home games and the last 13 meetings have produced 3 overs, 9 unders and a push. Look for the under to cash on Sunday afternoon!
JIM FEIST
LOS ANGELES ANGELS at DETROIT TIGERS
Take: DETROIT TIGERS
The Tigers look to extend their first place lead in the AL Central division over the Twins while the Angels hope to close in on AL West leader Texas. The Tigers are on a 4-6 run after Saturday's win over the Angels, 2-1. The Tigers offense is in the bottom half of the league with a .264 BA and below the league average in HR's (55). The Angels are dead last in the AL in HR's (42), but third in BA (.276). The Tiger's Miguel Cabrera has been a monster, hitting .354 (2nd in AL). Detroit's pitching staff is 2nd with a 4.15 ERA. The Tigers start Rick Procello today and he is 6-4 with a 3.70 era this season. Joe Saunders will start for the Halos and he is 6-4 with a 3.77 ERA. Expect another low scoring game here with two strong pitchers. The Tigers have too much pitching and timely hitting for the Angels though so we'll side with the guys from the Motor City.
Karl Garrett
Colorado at ST. LOUIS
G-Man on a 12-6 comp play run the last 18 days!
National League action this Sunday, and look for the Cards to stop the bleeding in game three of this long four game set against Colorado.
The Rockies have humiliated the Redbirds in the first two games, but St. Louis starter Joel Pineiro has done his best work this season at home, going 3-1 with a 2.05 ERA.
Colorado starter Ubaldo Jimenez is only 1-4 on the road this season, and after getting outscored 21-5 in the first two games, you can count on the Cardinals to come out on a mission in this game.
The Rockies are still just 14-18 this season on the road, while the Cardinals do own a solid 19-13 home mark.
G-Man will lay a little with the Cards to get the win.
1♦ ST. LOUIS
Chris Jordan
Philadelphia +120 at LOS ANGELES
Remember Antonio Bastardo? I told you about him when he made his Major League debut against the Padres last week, not to mention their ace hurler Jake Peavy. We won that complimentary release. We’ll win this one too with him making his nationally televised debut.
The southpaw took Brett Myers’ spot in the rotation, and looked good in his debut, allowing just one earned run in six frames at pitcher-friendly PETCO Park. He arrived in the rotation after stints at Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Remember, he was the one strikeout-to-walk ratio was slightly better than 5-to-1, as he fanned 51 and walked just 10 in the minors. In his MLB-debut, the 23-year-old struck out five and walked just one … isn’t that something?
Bastardo, who was 3-2 with a 1.89 ERA in 11 games with the aforementioned minor-league teams, is a hard-throwing lefty who likes to announce his stuff right down the pipe and isn’t afraid to challenge batters. He’s been likened to Johan Santana and has received the most hype this organization has bestowed upon a youngster since Cole Hamels donned his first uniform.
He throws a straight-away fastball and reverts to a changeup when needed. He keeps his heater in the low 90s, and it’s his deceptive delivery that makes his fastball look even faster. His arm speed makes the changeup much more effective, as its his out pitch. He also has a slider and utilizes his breaking ball mid-count.
Once again we’re going to find value with this kid, as we play the road pup on ESPN tonight.
1♦ PHILLIES