VEGAS EXPERTS
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Dan Haren may be the most hard luck pitcher in all of baseball as he has allowed more than three earned runs in just one start this season, despite going at least six innings in each of his 11 outings. However, a San Diego lineup that comes in averaging under four runs per game on the season should be no trouble, particularly because we find the Padres at 2-13 vs. a starter with an ERA of 2.70 or better.
Play on: Arizona
Mike Anthony
Baltimore Orioles vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are not playing well, but there's light at the end of the tunnel, and they've got a great oppurtunity for the bounceback today, and here's why:
First, the pitching matchup gives them a solid edge, as lefty Rich Hill takes the mound for the O's. Not only are they 4-0 when he starts, but he's coming off his best outing of the season, tossing seven scoreless at Seattle Monday. He's proven rock-solid on the highway, going 2-0 with a stellar 1.96 ERA in three starts. Look for continued success today, as the A's average only 2.8 runs per game against lefties at home, batting .212 in the process.
Second, I'll admit his debut was impressive, tossing 6 1/3 scoreless against the White Sox Tuesday, but let's not get too carried away with Vin Mazzaro just yet. Orioles bats may have cooled recently, but they clearly prefer to hit righties, averaging 5.1 run per game against them. Look for them to get back on track today, as they test the hard-throwing rookie early and often.
Finally, make no mistake, the Orioles are desperate for a win here, and they know Hill gives them their best chance in this spot. The A's are 0-4 against lefties in day games at McAfee Coliseum, and you can make 0-5 after this afternoon. In the end, Baltimore snaps out of its funk, exposing the rookie in only his second major league start and get their bats rolling!
Vernon Croy
Colorado Rockies vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Colorado Rockies
We are getting great value here Sunday afternoon with the Rockies who are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road dog. The Rockies are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning record and the Rockies are 4-1 in Ubaldo Jimenez's (3-6, 4.11 ERA) last 5 starts after they held their opponents to 2 runs or less in their previous game. Jimenez has pitched well over his last 3 starts with an ERA of just 3.66 and he allowed just 1 earned run in his last start over 6 innings. The Rockies bats have been on fire in this series averaging 10.5 rpg and I look for their bats to stay hot today against Joel Pineiro (5-5, 3.86) who has an ERA of 7.36 over 3 career starts against the Rockies. The Cardinals are just 1-5 in Pineiro's last 6 starts and he has not pitched since May.29. The Cardinals are just 1-5 in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record and they are also just 1-4 in their last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.Grab the value with the Colorado Rockies.
Nelly
Tampa Bay + over New York
Matt Garza and Joba Chamberlain are both considered two of the top young pitchers in the AL but Garza has proven he can succeed as a starter while Chamberlain has done very little since leaving the bullpen. Chamberlain owns nine career wins and his numbers are very average this season with a 3.71 ERA. His 1.44 WHIP is alarming and despite being a heavy favorite in nearly every start the Yankees have gone just 6-4 in those games. At home Chamberlain owns a 5.82 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. The New York bullpen has also been a complete disaster this season with some of the worst numbers in baseball. Tampa Bay was able to win yesterday in a see-saw game despite two solid efforts from the starters. The road team has won five of six in this series this season and Garza is quietly posting great numbers even if the wins have not added up yet. Tampa Bay has won six of the last seven overall and the Rays are hitting .278 on the road this season. New York is just 3-4 in the last seven home games and this looks like great value on the vastly superior starting pitcher.
GINA
Orlando Magic at Los Angeles Lakers
The Magic strong offense were awful in Game 1, they shot just 15-of-54 shooting from inside, 29.9 percent and 34.8 percent from 3-point range. Look for Orlando to make the necessary adjustments to battle Kobe and his boys. They have been their before, trailing Philadelphia and Boston. Expect Orlando to be more aggressive tonight, but I believe the Lakers take a 2-0 lead in the series in a close contest. Take the points!
Orlando Magic +7
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
Go with the Twins with Kevin Slowey on the hill. The right-hander is 4-0 with a 2.41 ERA in his past five starts and 1-0 with a 7.50 ERA in one career start versus Seattle. Minnesota is a horrible 3-12 in its last 15 road games and has dropped five of Slowey's last six starts on the road, but Seattle hasn't been successful at Safeco Field with lefthander Erik Bedard at the helm, The Mariners have lost five of his last 7 home starts. Bedard is 0-5 with a 4.80 ERA in nine career starts against Minnesota
Minnesota Twins +115
Michael Cannon
Minnesota +120 at SEATTLE
Take the Twins for the road win over the Mariners.
Kevin Slowey gets the start for Minnesota and he’s 8-1 with a 3.97 ERA on the year. The right-hander has allowed two earned runs in winning each of his last three starts and is 4-0 with a 2.41 ERA in his last five overall.
Seattle will counter with Erik Bedard, who has had great success against every team in the AL except the Twins.
Bedard is 0-5 with a 4.80 ERA in nine career starts against Minnesota.
Minnesota has won four of six and I like them to grab their first road series win since taking two of three in Cleveland back in late April.
Take the Twins as they grab the road win.
4♦ MINNESOTA
LARRY NESS
Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners
The Orioles traded Erik Bedard to Seattle in exchange for five players in February of 2008. Bedard went 40-34 with a 3.83 ERA in just over four full seasons with Baltimore and was particularly good in 2006 and 2007. The Orioles were just 139-185 (.429) in those two seasons but Bedard went 28-16 (.636) with a 3.47 ERA. His .636 winning percentage is quite impressive when compared against Baltimore's overall record of 111-169 (.396) when he didn't get a decision. That's called being a real "difference-maker." Bedard's been impressive in 2009, although he doesn't have all that much to show for it. He's never allowed more than three ERs in any of his 10 starts this year (in EIGHT of 10 it's been two ERs or less), posting a 4-2 record with a 2.37 ERA (team is just 5-5). It would be hard to argue too hard against the statement that over the past month, Erik Bedard has been one of the toughest pitchers in MLB. Minnesota's Kevin Slowey doesn't have much to apologize for in 2009, either. He's 8-1 with a 3.97 ERA in 11 starts this season (team is 8-3), going 4-0 with a 2.41 ERA over his last five starts (Twins are 4-1). These teams have split a pair of 2-1 games Friday and Saturday and the Twins, just 7-17 on the road this year, have a chance to actually take a road series with a win, which would be the team's first series win on the road since late April (24-26 at Cleveland). While Bedard has been pitching great, he's never had any success (or luck) vs the Twins, going 0-5 with a 4.80 ERA in nine lifetime starts vs Minnesota (teams are 2-7). However, check out the Twins' mark this year against lefties, in every situation other than in night home games, where they've gone 8-1 (averaging 6.8 RPG). In home day games vs left-handers, the Twins are 0-2, averaging 1.5 RPG. On the road, they are 0-4 in day games (averaging 1.5 RPG) and at night, 0-4 (averaging 3.3 RPG). So except for in night games at home vs lefties, the Twins are 0-10 vs lefties in all other situations, averaging 2.2 RPG. Take Bedard and Seattle.
John Ryan
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Boston as they play host to Texas beginning at 1:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 59-24 making 33.9 units since 1997. Play on home teams with an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.800 or worse on the season stranding 7.5 or more runners on base per game on the season. Boston is 22-3 (+17.5 Units) against the money line in home games versus poor fielding teams turning 0.8 or less DP's/game over the last 2 seasons; 16-4 (+11.3 Units) against the money line versus. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game this season; 15-2 (+13.1 Units) against the money line versus an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 over the last 3 seasons; 19-5 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in home games versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last 2 seasons. Take Boston
LAA Angels vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: LAA Angels
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Anaheim as the face Detroit slated to start at 1:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 258-211 making 75.1 units since 1997. Play on any team that is an average hitting team batting .265 to .279 facing a good AL starting pitcher sporting an ERA <=4.20 and starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. Anaheim starter Saunders is 14-3 (+12.3 Units) against the money line versus teams outscoring opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
Freddy Wills
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
It is disheartening to say this as a Mets fan, but I think there is season is pretty much done unless they are going to be last years Phillies chasing them from behind with a solid bullpen.
The injuries just keep coming and now it seems the confidence has as well as Maine and Pelfrey who had been solid as of late had their worst starts of the season this past week. I think the wheels fall off again on Sunday where the Mets are 2-10 in their last 12 and they are 4-11 this season in Game 3's.
The Nats will face Livan Hernandez for the second time this year which they have done the last 2 years. Hernandez had a complete game vs. the Nats the last time out, but he also pitched well in his 1st game in 07 and 08 before giving up a total of 10 ER in his next 2 starts of each year. Look for Hernandez to struggle a bit here during the day where he has a 7.84 ERA on the season.
Stammen will go for the Nats he pitched vs. the Mets on 5/27 and allowed 3ER in 5IP. I think he makes some adjustments against an easier lineup not featuring Pagan or Ramon Martine who accounted for 3 of the 7 hits vs. him the last time.
Lastly nearly 87% of the public are on the Mets based on my 42 sports books average. The public is liking Hernandez and what he did against the Nats this season, but the line has barely changed and has remained the same in most cases. If the Mets were a sure thing you would see them move from -106 to -120 and so on.
Take the Nationals
Johnny Guild
Orlando Magic at Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers defense limited the Magic and Superman Dwight Howard in Game 1. I believe tonight’s clash will be a better outcome for the Magic. However, the Lakers are home and their multitalented front-line depth wrecked the Magic in Game 1. Look for Kobe to put on another Hollywood show tonight. Orlando is 2-11 in their last 13 games against the Lakers in Los Angeles, 4-8-1 ATS
Los Angeles Lakers -7
Indiancowboy
Take the LA Dodgers over the Philadelphia Phillies
First of all, congrats to Ethier for continuing to walk off his team to back to back victories. These two teams hook up once again after the Dodgers had lost the first game of this series but have now won back to back games by 1 run thanks to big Andre's back to back game winning jacks. These two hook up again and I like the Dodgers once again. Wolf comes off a bounce-back after giving up 5 runs in his previous start and he usually bounces back very well. Check out his earned run output for the last few games:
5, 1, 4, 2, 1, 1, 1.
Notice after the 4 earned run performance he gave to the Angels at home he came back to give up just 1 run in 7 innings at the Cubbies. I look for Wolf to have a bounce-back and yes Antonio had a great outing in his first start against the Padres, but again, it was the Padres. I think he will struggle a bit against the Dodgers lineup and if you want a good chuckle, check out Antonio's last name. The Dodgers are 4-0 when Wolf starts as a favorite and 6-1 in Wolf's last 7 home starts.