12:30 p.m. ET: SMU at Houston
This early afternoon tip features the top two teams in the AAC going at it. SMU (20-6 SU, 14-12 ATS) is 4-1 over their last five games and just beat Tulsa 75-61, covering as 10.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Houston (23-4 SU, 16-11 ATS) is ranked 14th, has won three straight and just edged Tulane 81-67, covering as 9.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Houston listed as a 10-point home favorite. The public typically backs ranked teams over unranked teams but not this time. Casual bettors think this line is too high and have grabbed the points with trendy dog SMU. However, we've actually seen this line move further toward Houston (-10 to -10.5 or even -11 at some shops), signaling pro money laying the chalk. Houston is 13-1 at home this season. Ken Pom has Houston winning by 11-points (75-64). This is a revenge spot for Houston, who fell to SMU 85-83 on February 9th.
Lean Huston but buy points
3 p.m. ET: Tulane at Temple
Both of these AAC rivals are looking to bounce back from losses. Tulane (12-12 SU, 15-9 ATS) just fell to Houston 81-67, failing to cover as 9.5-point home dogs. Similarly, Temple (15-10 SU, 15-10 ATS) just lost to Memphis 78-64, failing to cover as 11.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Temple listed as a short 2.5-point home favorite. The -2.5 for Temple is juiced up to -115, signaling liability on the home team and a possible move from -2.5 to -3. Temple's biggest advantage comes in rebounding (39 RPG vs 32 RPG). Temple is 9-3 at home this season. Tulane is 3-6 on the road. Ken Pom has Temple winning by two points (70-68). This is a revenge spot for Temple, who lost to Tulane 92-83 back on February 12th.
Lean Temple
2 p.m. ET: Fairfield at Manhattan
This MAAC showdown may not be garnering much attention from the public. But pros have taken a position. Fairfield (12-16 SU, 14-13 ATS) has dropped three straight games and just fell to Iona 76-58, failing to cover as 11.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Manhattan (14-12 SU, 12-12-1 ATS) just saw their three-game win streak come to an end with a 74-56 loss to Marist, failing to cover as 5-point road dogs. This line opened with Manhattan listed as a 1-point home favorite. This line has gone to a pickem, signaling liability on the away team. Manhattan holds the edge in scoring (72 PPG vs 69 PPG) and shooting (45% vs 44%). Manhattan is 7-3 at home this season. Fairfield is 7-7 on the road. Ken Pom has Manhattan winning by two points (71-69). Manhattan beat Fairfield 74-67 on February 16th. Pros have also leaned under in this game, dropping the total from 140 to 138.5.
Lean Under Bovada has it at 138.5 right now Im buying up to 140
Nascar Fontana speedway
Sunday’s Wise Power 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX)
Kyle Busch (-110) over Denny Hamlin
Kyle Busch has dominated at Fontana over the years, with 11 top fives and four wins in 22 starts.
Hamlin has never won at this track, and Busch has beat him head-to-head in four consecutive races here.
I love Busch this weekend at one of his best tracks and am grabbing the -110