Sunday's Tip Sheet
By Josh Jacobs
The slugfest out West continues on Sunday with two afternoon disputes involving playoff implications. Eight more games will add to the already full day of hoops action but let’s first dial into two ABC nationally televised events beginning at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Adding to what my colleague Chris David explained in Friday’s tip sheet, favorites increased the straight up record to 32-8 (80%) since tallying results from Monday (favorites went 9-2 SU on Friday).
Televised Tip-Off
Golden State at New Orleans
The Warriors (46-30 straight up, 34-42 against the spread) enter their fourth and final road contest this week, a stretch that has seen the squad accountable for a 1-2 SU and ATS record. Golden State is 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS in its last nine versus teams playing with a winning record. Back-to-back defeats in San Antonio (116-92) and Dallas (111-86) have been responsible for the Warriors’ most recent losses versus quality opponents.
For No. 1 seeded New Orleans (53-22 SU, 46-27-2 ATS), a 16-4 SU run has kept the Spurs and Lakers at bay for the time being. What’s more impressive is the Hornets 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS performance in their recent six-game road trip. Three of those five wins where manufactured from teams playing with a winning record (Orlando, Toronto and Cleveland).
New Orleans’ last blowout ‘W’ against New York (118-110) on Friday marked the sixth ‘over’ play in the last eight meetings for this club on the hardwood.
The Hornets have averaged 107.2 PPG while blazing the basket with a 48.7 percent success rate from the field in their last nine wins.
It was back on Jan. 30 when Golden State walked away with a 116-103 victory over New Orleans. Covering the spread as a heavy nine-point underdog, the Warriors couldn’t be stopped from the field, firing off an effective 52 percent. In the last 10 head-to-heads, both teams have split meetings at 5-5 SU, while Golden State owns a 6-4-1 ATS edge.
The ‘over’ is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head contests in New Orleans.
Dallas at Phoenix
For the Mavericks (47-29 SU, 33-39-74 ATS), a paring with the Suns (51-25 SU, 36-37-3 ATS) could be a gift or a curse.
Dropping six of its last nine, Dallas has sounded the alarm with concern to its No. 7 seeded positioning. The Mavs are only a half-game ahead of Denver and with contests against Utah and New Orleans still left on the schedule, a very interesting close to the season is in place.
It was less then a month ago that critics where blasting Phoenix’s choice in obtaining Shaquille O’Neal. The Suns are building upon an 11-3 SU and 9-4-1 ATS run in their last 14 games and O’Neal has put together solid outings in his last 10 appearances. The ‘Big Fella’ has averaged 14.7 PPG with 10.9 RPG during the stretch.
The biggest news circulating around Dallas was Dirk Nowitzki’s leg and knee sprains and its effect on the club. In the five meetings that Nowitzki has missed because of injury, the Mavericks have gone 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. Dallas has surrendered 104.2 PPG (compared to its seasonal 95.8 PPG allowed) when Nowitzki has been a spectator this season.
And while the Mavs own a league, second best 31-7 SU home record, their 16-22 SU and 17-21 ATS docket on the road has been damaging to say the least. Complicating matters (especially for backers) is Dallas’ 7-12 ATS record on the road versus teams with a winning record.
Phoenix currently owns a 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS billing in its last four meetings against Dallas.
With the Suns shooting for 117.2 PPG in their last five games, the Mavericks recently patchy defense (allowing 103.2 PPG in the last five) will be put to the test. Dallas is 9-17 SU this season when it has allowed opponents to score double-digit figures.
With Phoenix’s dogfight against Houston for the No. 5 spot and Dallas’ mission to stick inside the playoff bubble, expect this contest to become a war of attrition.
Most books have opened the Suns as five-point with a total still pending.
L.A. Lakers at Sacramento
The Lakers continue the fight in the West, going 7-3 SU in their last 10. As competitive as L.A. has been in the playoff race, backers have struggled down the stretch. The Lake Show has tallied up five straight ATS losses and are 10-4 ATS in the last 14. Sacramento will look to bolster its 24-13 SU and 22-15 ATS record at home. Looking for their fifth win in six contests, the Kings are 3-2 SU in their last five versus teams with a winning record. One trend to note is that the Lakers are 12-4 ATS on the road versus teams with a losing record. Bodog.com has installed Sacramento as a 6½-point ‘dog, with a total sitting at 223.
Houston at L.A. Clippers
The Clippers have shot 37.5 percent in two losses at home versus the Rockets this season (0-2 ATS). In their last 10 head-to-head meetings, the ‘over’ is 7-3, while the road team has gone on to accumulate a 17-5 ATS record in the last 22. Currently the No. 6 seed in the West, Houston is 4-1 SU and 2-2-1 ATS in their last five versus teams with a losing record. The Rockets are an average 8-7 ATS on the road versus teams playing with a record under .500. In the last 10 head-to-head meetings the favorite has manufactured a 6-4 ATS record. Most books have installed the Clips as 7½-point underdogs with a total set at 186 ½.
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Golden State (46-30, 34-42 ATS) at New Orleans (53-22, 46-27-2 ATS)
The red-hot Hornets look to extend their four-game winning overall streak and their 10-game home winning streak while staying atop the Western Conference playoff standings when the Warriors come calling inside the New Orleans Arena.
New Orleans has won nine of its last 10 overall (7-2-1 ATS) and beat the Knicks 118-110 at home Friday, coming up short as a 15½-point favorite. The Hornets have the top record in the West, 1½ games ahead of the Lakers and Spurs.
Golden State is wrapping up a four-game road trip tonight, having lost two of the first three both SU and ATS. After falling in San Antonio (116-92 as 8½-point ‘dogs) and Dallas (111-86 as five-point pups) on back-to-back nights Tuesday and Wednesday, the Warriors got back on track with Friday’s 117-86 win in Memphis as 9½-point favorites.
Don Nelson’s Warriors have been battling with the Nuggets and Mavericks for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, with Dallas in seventh place, one game ahead of both Golden State and Denver.
The road team has won both meetings this season, with New Orleans scoring a 116-104 win in Oakland on Jan. 4 as a 2½-point ‘dog and Golden State returning the favor 116-103 in the Big Easy on Jan. 30 as a nine-point pup. The Warriors have won four of five in this series and are 5-1 ATS in the last six. Finally, the straight-up winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 series clashes.
New Orleans has won 10 straight at home (9-1 ATS) with the only non-cover being Friday’s win over New York. The Hornets are on ATS streaks of 20-7 at home and 19-7 against the Pacific Division.
Golden State is on ATS ruts of 7-15 against Western Conference foes, 9-28 following a SU win and 8-17 after a spread-cover.
The over is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head matchups, 10-4 in the Warriors’ last 14 against the Southwest Division and 10-4 when the Warriors are an underdog. The over is also 6-2 in the Hornets’ last eight, 14-6-2 in their last 22 home games and 5-1-2 in their last eight as a home favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Dallas (47-29, 33-39-4 ATS) at Phoenix (51-25, 36-37-3 ATS)
The Suns try to make it eight straight wins inside US Airways Center when the Mavericks pay a visit in this battle between perennial Western Conference playoff squads.
Phoenix, which pummeled Minnesota 117-88 as a 15½-point home chalk on Friday, has won 11 of its last 14 games overall (9-4-1 ATS) and has seemed to figure out how to use newcomer Shaquille O’Neal in the offense. After struggling early with O’Neal (losing six of nine), the Suns have gotten about 16 points and 10 rebounds a game from the big man since, and nobody has benefited more from O’Neal’s production than forward Amare Stoudemire, who is averaging 31 points and 10 rebounds a game over the last eight.
Dallas is just 3-6 SU and ATS in its last nine overall, but the Mavericks have gotten the cash in their last three, including Friday’s 112-108 road loss to the Lakers as five-point ‘dogs. With that defeat, Avery Johnson’s club dropped to 1-3 SU (2-2 ATS) in its last four on the highway.
The home team has won the last three in this series, but Phoenix is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five battles. In the two clashes so far this year, the Mavericks scored a 108-105 home win on Dec. 19 and pushed as three-point favorites, while the Suns rolled 109-97 on Feb. 14, cashing as a 7½-point chalk. The straight-up winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 series meetings.
After Friday’s rout of the TWolves, the Suns have won and cashed in seven straight home games. Mike D’Antoni’s squad is also on ATS runs of 8-1-1 as a favorite, 5-1 against the Southwest Division and 8-1-1 against the Western Conference.
The Mavs are just 8-21 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning home record, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against Western Conference foes and 1-4 ATS in their last five following a SU loss. However, Dallas has cashed in seven of its last 10 road contests and 11 of its last 15 when returning to work after one day off.
The over has been the play in three of the last four series meetings and is 9-0 when the Mavs’ are an underdog and 7-2 with the Suns as a home favorite. However the under is 10-2 in Dallas’ last 12 Sunday tipoffs and 6-2 the last eight time the Suns have been a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
San Antonio (52-24, 35-39-2 ATS) at Portland (38-38 SU and ATS)
The Spurs try to clinch a spot in the Western Conference playoff and beat the Blazers for the 14th straight time when the two meet inside the Rose Garden.
San Antonio had a chance to wrap up a playoff berth Friday in Utah but turned in its worst offensive performance of the season, losing 90-64 as a three-point ‘dog. The loss snapped the team’s eight-game overall winning streak (7-1 ATS) Spurs and a three-game road winning streak (3-0 ATS).
Portland has dropped four straight (1-3 ATS), including Thursday’s 96-85 home loss to the Rockets as 6½-point underdogs. The Blazers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 in front of the home fans and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 against team with a winning SU record.
San Antonio has dominated this series, winning 13 straight and going 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings. Both battles this season have been in San Antonio, with the Spurs getting a 106-97 win on Oct. 30 but coming up short as 13-point favorites and then winning 100-79 on Dec. 2 as a 14-point chalk. The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight head-to-head.
Gregg Popovich pulled his starters early in the fourth quarter against the Jazz so they should be well rested for this one as the Spurs try to improve on positive ATS marks of 10-3 in their last 13 Sunday tipoffs and 5-0 in their last five when they get a day of rest.
The over is 3-1 in the last four series clashes, but the under is 6-2 for the Spurs in their last eight on the highway and 42-20-1 in the Blazers’ last 63 against the Southwest Division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO
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Detroit at Miami, 6:05 ET
Detroit: 18-6 ATS off BB ATS wins
Miami: 9-22 ATS off road loss
Dallas at Phoenix, 3:30 ET ABC
Dallas: 0-8 ATS Away if total is 210 or higher
Phoenix: 15-3 Over at home off an Under
Milwaukee at Indiana, 6:05 ET
Milwaukee: 12-3 Over Away vs. division
Indiana: 4-0 ATS at home vs. Milwaukee
San Antonio at Portland, 6:05 ET
San Antonio: 16-6 Under playing only their 2nd game in 5 days
Portland: 21-9 Under off an Over
Memphis at Minnesota, 6:35 ET
Memphis: 12-4 Under off BB home games
Minnesota: 5-18 ATS in April
(TC) Golden State at New Orleans, 1:00 ET ABC
Golden State: 15-30 ATS off SU win
New Orleans: 19-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Orlando at New York, 7:05 ET
Orlando: 8-2 ATS vs. New York
New York: 22-9 Over 2nd half of season
Denver at Seattle, 9:05 ET
Denver: 32-14 Over vs. division
Seattle: 9-0 Over at home off BB games w/ 15+ offensive rebounds
LA Lakers at Sacramento, 9:05 ET
LA Lakers: 8-1 ATS as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points
Sacramento: 2-14 ATS after covering 4 of their last 5
Houston at LA Clippers, 9:35 ET
Houston: 10-1 Under off 4+ road games
LA Clippers: 11-0 Under as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points
(TC) Denotes Time Change