Suns-Blazers Outlook
By Kevin Rogers
No. 3 Phoenix Suns vs. No. 6 Portland Trailblazers
Series Price: Phoenix -550, Portland +450
Series Format: Phoenix, 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: The Suns finished off a strong season by going 22-5 the last 27 games to wrap up the third seed in the Western Conference playoffs. Phoenix takes on a Portland squad that is down its best player with Brandon Roy missing the postseason due to torn meniscus in his right knee.
Phoenix bounced back after missing the playoffs last season by picking up 54 victories, the fifth time in the last six years in which the Suns have racked up at least 50 wins. The Suns turned it on following the All-Star Break as the Amar'e Stoudemire trade rumors were put to bed. The five losses suffered over the final two months of the season all came to playoff teams, while going 19-7-1 ATS in this stretch. The Suns led the league once again in PPG with 110.2, as Alvin Gentry's club also finished atop the league in FG% and 3-point FG%.
The Blazers are used to playing without Roy, as Portland finished 8-9 SU and 10-7 ATS in the 17 games with their leading scorer out. Portland makes its second straight playoff appearance after getting eliminated in six games by Houston in last season's first round. The Blazers helped themselves with the acquisitions of Andre Miller and Marcus Camby to give a solid veteran presence to this young squad. Portland was not scared to play away from the Rose Garden, finishing 24-17 on the highway.
These teams played only three times this season as Portland grabbed two victories. The Blazers rallied late at home to upend the Suns in mid-December, 105-102, thanks to 29 points off the bench from Jerryd Bayless. Portland stunned Phoenix in the Valley as 9 ½-point underdogs without Roy, 108-101, prior to the All-Star Break as the Blazers shot a scorching 58% from the floor. The Suns avoided the season sweep with a defensive-minded 93-87 win over the Blazers in late March. Both teams shot below 40% from the field, as Phoenix outscored Portland, 29-19 in the final quarter to pull out the victory.
Gambling Notes: The Suns were money as home favorites since late February, going 12-2-1 ATS, including victories over the Spurs, Jazz, Hawks, and Nuggets twice. Phoenix was solid as single-digit home 'chalk,' compiling a 17-7 SU and 15-8-1 ATS mark. The home team has won seven of the last eight meetings in this series, while going 5-2-1 ATS.
Nate McMillan's team went 15-6-1 ATS since January 20 on the road, including an 8-3-1 ATS ledger when receiving points away from the Rose Garden in this span. The Blazers didn't finish strong at home, putting together a 7-7 ATS mark since the start of February, but six games of those came without Roy. The 'over' hit at a nice rate as a road underdog, going 15-8, while getting drilled in five of seven instances with Roy injured.
Series Outlook: Playing without Roy will obviously be a hurdle for Portland, but the Blazers have proven they can hang around with their leading scorer hurt. The Blazers have held their own against the Suns, but beating Phoenix four times will be a challenge. Phoenix will likely advance in six games, even though the Suns have to work for every win against this tough-minded Blazers squad.
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