Suns-Lakers Outlook
By Kevin Rogers
No. 1 L.A. Lakers vs. No. 3 Phoenix Suns
Series Price: L.A. Lakers -340, Phoenix +280
Series Format: L.A. Lakers, 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: The Western Conference Finals gets going following a nice layoff on Monday as the two Pacific Division rivals meet for the third time in the postseason since 2006. The Lakers and Suns each cruised to series sweeps in the conference semifinals, while each time is currently riding six-game winning streaks.
The defending champion Lakers were tested in each of the first two rounds, but still own a playoff mark of 8-2. Los Angeles finished off Oklahoma City in six games after the series was tied at two games apiece, followed by a clean sweep of Utah in the second round. The Jazz held fourth quarter leads in Games 1 and 3, but couldn't close the deal, propelling the Lakers past Utah for the third straight postseason.
The Suns fell in their playoff opener to the Blazers without Brandon Roy, however, that didn't stop Phoenix from winning four of the next five games to claim the series. Phoenix's big three of Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, and Jason Richardson carried the Suns over the Blazers, and then continued its hot scoring against San Antonio. The Suns ran out the Spurs in four games, exacting revenge for three playoff exits versus the Spurs since 2005.
The Lakers captured three of the four regular season meetings against the Suns, including both matchups at Staples Center. L.A. beat Phoenix convincingly in the first meeting on November 12 by a 121-102 count, barely going 'over' the total of 220 ½. The Suns didn't shoot lights out from the field (36.5%), they just took a lot of shots (104) in the loss. The Lakers took care of the Suns once again at Staples in a more defensive-minded affair in early December with a 108-88 victory. The Purple and Gold drilled ten treys in that win compared to only three by Phoenix, while the Suns went to the line just 11 times.
When the venue shifted to the Valley for the final two regular season matchups, the Suns notched a 15-point triumph in late December as short home underdogs. Phoenix was solid from three-point land with 12 treys, as Jared Dudley contributed 19 points off the bench. The Lakers avenged that loss with a 102-96 win at Phoenix on March 12, cashing as two-point road 'chalk.' Kobe Bryant finished two assists shy of a triple-double as all five Lakers starters scored in double-figures.
These two clubs are meeting in the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 1989 when the Lakers eliminated the Suns in four games. Phoenix has taken care of business recently by knocking out Los Angeles in both the 2006 and 2007 playoffs. The Suns overcame a 3-1 deficit in 2006, topped off by a 31-point thrashing of the Lakers in the decisive Game 7. Phoenix advanced in five games in 2007, including three home victories over L.A.
Gambling Notes: The Lakers are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS the last four home meetings with Phoenix, with the lone non-cover coming as 13 ½-point favorites in December 2008. The Suns were a profitable road underdog this season by going 16-11 ATS when getting points on the highway, including a 4-0 ATS mark in the postseason.
After picking up a pair of 'unders' the first two playoff home games, the Lakers have cashed the 'over' in each of the last three at Staples, including both contests against Utah.
Three of the last four meetings in Phoenix have finished 'under' the total, which includes an 'under' of 239 in a 118-111 victory by the Suns on March 1, 2009. Four of the five home playoff games for the Suns have hit the 'over,' with Alvin Gentry's squad scoring at least 107 points four times.
Series Outlook: The Lakers have been tested against better competition in the playoffs than the Suns have. Los Angeles took on an underrated Oklahoma City squad and a tough Utah club, while Phoenix battled a Portland team that had its best player banged up and ran out an old San Antonio club. The Suns will definitely give the Lakers a run for their money, but Los Angeles will close this series out in six games and advance to the Finals for a third straight season.
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