Suns vs Spurs Playoff Preview
By Triple Threat Sports
For the third time in four years Phoenix and San Antonio are facing each other in the NBA Playoffs. The Spurs have won each of the previous two series – in 2007 and 2008 – and overall are 8-3 SU in the series, winning 4-2 in 2007 and 4-1 in 2008. It is the 2007 series that is one of the most memorable in NBA playoff history. The Suns lost Game 1 thanks primarily to a massive nosebleed to Steve Nash that the trainers could not stop. Even more infamously, in the closing seconds of a Game Four Suns win that evened the series Robert Horry “purposefully and aggressively” bumped Nash to the floor, instigating some on court jawing between all ten players on the floor and – most importantly – saw both Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw leave the bench, thus each earning a very controversial one game suspension for pivotal Game 5. The Suns were a two point home dog in Game Five and lost by only three despite playing with just a six man rotation. Back in San Antonio for Game Six and with both Stoudamire and Diaw back for Phoenix and Horry still out for the Spurs, it was San Antonio that managed a six point win to advance to the Western Conference Finals, eventually winning the NBA Championship with a Finals sweep of the Cavaliers. It is a widely held belief (one shared by this writer) that the Suns would have won that series if not for the suspensions, meaning that Tim Duncan would have one less ring and that the Suns likely would have made the Finals against the Cavaliers, which would have been a much more entertaining series.
Phoenix had a chance at instant revenge in the playoffs the next season, but a Duncan – yes Duncan – three pointer in the closing stages of Game 1 gave the Spurs the win in that game and led them to a win in the series, as the Spurs won it in five games. As mentioned, overall the Spurs are 8-3 SU in the playoff series. They are 6-5 ATS and the series is - interestingly since the Spurs prefer low scoring games – 7-4 to the Over. Incredibly, the total points scored in the eleven games shows San Antonio - which remember is 8-3 SU – shows the Spurs with just a 1112-1106 total points edge. Sticking with the numbers, since 2006 and counting the regular and post seasons, the Spurs are 9-4 SU as series host but just 4-8-1 ATS, and the totals tally is 8-5 to the Over. Phoenix has a 6-6 SU and ATS home record and the Under has a 7-5 edge in those twelve games. Looking at just this season ' s results note that the home team is 3-0 SU but the Suns did cover in their only trip to the Alamo, losing 113-110 as a four point underdog in February. Phoenix won both of their home games be double digits, prevailing 116-104 as a two point favorite in December and posting a 112-101 win (-6 ' ) in April. All three games went Over the total and the combined average score was just a bit more than 209 points per contest.
The stars of each team have basically remained intact from that famous 2007 series, with The Big Three of the Spurs – Duncan, Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker – all still being leaders, and both Nash and Stoudemire being Sun mainstays, although Jason Richardson (who is actually the leading playoff scorer this year) has replaced Shawn Marion as a member of the Phoenix top three. The supporting cast is quite different for both teams though, as gone for the Suns are Diaw, Raja Bell and Kurt Thomas and the Spurs no longer have Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley or Horry. In their stead are Richard Jefferson, George Hill and Antonio McDyess for the Spurs and Channing Frye, Jared Dudley and Grant Hill for the Suns. LeAndro Barbosa was with the Suns then and still is now. It is the respective benches that could be the difference in this series, as Bowen was Mr. Clutch, (Big Shot) Bob Horry hit a number of important shots, and of course Finley had to be respected. Now Jefferson and McDyess play roles but are not “REALLY” counted on for a lot, and Hill, while shining in the first round, is still an unproven commodity for this deep in the playoffs. On the other hand Dudley has been impressive and is a long ball threat, Frye should give Duncan some interior competition, and most importantly Grant Hill is a do everything player for this team, making contributions that sometime do not find their way into the statsheet but are still critical to the success of the team.
Remember, San Antonio was far from dominant in the first round against Dallas and if not for a few bounces may not even have won that series. Phoenix also won in six games, but was 4-0 in “regular” games in which there was not a huge emotional effort from the Blazers, as in Game One they had a chip on their shoulder after hearing how they had no chance, and in Game Four Brandon Roy pulled a Willis Reed and led him team to a win. Aside from those two special occasion games the Suns were in complete control of that series. As you may have guessed, with the divergent playoff results (closer than it looked series win and a not as close as it looked series win), deeper bench, more veteran presence than they have had in the past, and the all important home court advantage, we like the Suns to win this series. They are -140 or so in most spots, and that is well worth a look.