Sweet 16 Betting News and Notes

Sweet 16 Primer
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

The field of 68 has been reduced to 16. We’ve yet to see a buzzer beater or an overtime game, but we’ve certainly been treated to great comebacks, stunning upsets and excitement galore. Let’s get you ready for the Sweet 16 with a few early thoughts.

Florida became the first team in NCAA Tournament history to score 70-plus points and limit its opponents to 50 points or less in its first two games. The Gators thumped Virginia 71-45 and then dealt Norfolk St. an 84-50 shellacking.

UF advances to its sixth Sweet 16 during Billy Donovan’s tenure and will take on third-seeded Marquette. Most books are listing the Golden Eagles as 1½-point favorites with a total of 146.

Buzz Williams’s team had zero luck against SEC squads this year. Marquette got beat at LSU when the Tigers were playing without one of their best players in Johnny O’Bryant. Also, Vandy went up to Milwaukee and cruised to an easy win by 17 points that wasn’t close from the start.

In the other West region semifinal clash in Phoenix on Thursday, top-seeded Michigan State will collide with No. 4 seed Louisville. Most spots have the Spartans installed as 4½-point favorites with a total of 125. The Cardinals are plus-180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).

This is a rematch of an Elite Eight contest in 2009 when Tom Izzo’s team stunned a top-seeded Louisville squad by a 64-52 count as a 6½-point underdog.

U of L has won six in a row both SU and ATS, including wins over Davidson (69-62) and New Mexico (59-56) this past weekend. Meanwhile, Michigan St. eliminated LIU Brooklyn and Saint Louis, although it failed to cover the number in a 65-61 win over the Billikens as a 7½-point ‘chalk.’

Something has to give in this tilt because Rick Pitino has never lost a Sweet 16 game and Izzo’s teams have made the Final Four every time it has been a No. 1 seed.

The East Region semifinals will go down at TD Garden in Boston, where top-seeded Syracuse will face Wisconsin on Thursday at 7:15 p.m. Eastern. Most spots have the Orange tabbed as a four-point favorite with the total in the 121-122 range. Gamblers can take the Badgers to win outright for a plus-170 return (risk $100 to win $170).

Syracuse trailed 16th-seeded UNC-Asheville at halftime of its tourney opener, but it was able to squeak past the Bulldogs. Then on Saturday, Jim Boeheim’s team looked much sharper in disposing of Kansas St., 75-59. Nevertheless, we should note that the ‘Cuse is mired in a 2-7 ATS slump.

Wisconsin blasted Montana on Thursday and then won a 60-57 thriller over a red-hot Vanderbilt team. The Badgers have three major factors working in their favor. First, they have one of the nation’s premier coaches in Bo Ryan. Secondly, Jordan Taylor is one of the best point guards in the country and, last but not least, Wisconsin is as stingy as always at the defensive end of the court.

Ohio St. will play Cincinnati as a seven-point favorite with a total of 130½. The Bearcats are plus-300 to win outright. If the Buckeyes and Badgers win, we’ll have an all Big Ten showdown in the East Region finals.

On Friday, let’s start in Atlanta where third-seeded Baylor will face Xavier at 7:15 p.m. Eastern on CBS. Most books are listing the Bears as six-point favorites with a total of 140. The Musketeers are plus-230 on the money line (risk $100 to win $230).

Scott Drew’s squad scratched past a scrappy South Dakota St. squad by a 68-60 score as a 7½-point favorite this past Thursday. Then on Saturday, Baylor broke open a tight game with a huge run midway through the second half and cruised to an 80-63 triumph over Colorado.

Brady Heslip did his best Jeff Fryer imitation (LMU over Michigan circa ’90) against the Buffaloes, bombing away from 3-point land at a 9-for-12 clip. Also, Pierre Jackson was fabulous with 15 points, 10 assists and five steals.

As I’ve stated quite a bit recently, Xavier was one of the country’s most disappointing teams this season. But as I also indicated last week, I felt that getting into the tournament – which looked very sketchy for several weeks – could put the regular-season disappointments in the rearview mirror.

I said last week that now that the expectations had subsided, Xavier could just go out and play without feeling any pressure. The Musketeers did just that in wins over Notre Dame and Lehigh, which had stunned second-seeded Duke on Friday night.

After playing horrible in a loss to Marquette in last year’s NCAAs, Tu Holloway bounced back and enjoyed a great weekend. But it was senior center Kenny Frease who was the catalyst against the Mountain Hawks. Frease led Xavier back from a double-digit first-half deficit to capture a 70-58 win. Frease finished with a career-high 25 points and 12 rebounds.

But Frease will face an athletic Baylor frontcourt that features Quincy Acy and Quincy Miller. They key for Xavier will be Holloway and backcourt mate Mark Lyons. Both will have to produce special performances for the Musketeers to get to the Elite Eight.

In the late game at the Ga. Dome, there’ll be no shortage of resentment, tradition, excitement and drama when a pair of the nation’s most storied programs collide…again!

Kentucky will get its chance to avenge a buzzer-beating loss in Bloomington when it squares off against Indiana. The oddsmakers expect the Wildcats to do so as they’ve been installed as nine-point favorites with a total of 145. The Hoosiers are plus-400 on the money line.

UK snapped out of a 0-4 ATS slide in Saturday’s 87-71 win over Iowa St. as a 12-point favorite. Marquis Teague led the way with 24 points and seven assists against the Cyclones. Anthony Davis added 15 points and 12 boards.

After thumping New Mexico St., Indiana trailed nearly the entire game but rallied to edge VCU by a 63-61 count. The Hoosiers got 16 points apiece from Christian Watford and Cody Zeller.

When these teams met on Dec. 10, Watford scored a game-high 20 points and hit the game-winner from the left wing as time expired. A big factor in that game was Davis being in foul trouble. The SEC Player of the Year logged just 24 minutes and finished with only six points, nine rebounds and one blocked shot.

The Midwest Region semifinals will be played at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis. North Carolina will face Ohio in Friday’s lid-lifter at 7:45 p.m. Eastern.

The big question facing the top-seeded Tar Heels is the status of point guard Kendall Marshall, who suffered a broken bone in his wrist and was expected to have surgery Monday. Nevertheless, there’s a chance he’ll play and it’s important to note that the injury is to his right wrist and Marshall is a southpaw.

The other wrist of note belongs to John Henson, who missed Friday’s win over Vermont but returned to the starting lineup in Sunday’s 87-73 win over Creighton. Henson looked good with 13 points, 10 rebounds and four blocked shots. All five UNC starters scored in double figures against the Bluejays with Marshall leading the way with 18 points and 11 assists.

Ohio is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1964. The Bobcats won the MAC Tournament and kept that momentum going with upset wins over Michigan and South Florida. They have a stellar backcourt with D.J. Cooper and Walter Offutt, who combined for 40 points in the win over the Bulls.

There’s another double-digit seed in St. Louis besides Ohio, but North Carolina St. hasn’t looked anything like a Cinderella in recent weeks. Mark Gottfried has a big, strong and athletic unit that won’t be intimidated by Kansas in the least.

Most books are listing KU as an eight-point favorite with a total of 141½. Bettors can take the Wolfpack to win outright for a plus-300 payout.

N.C. St. is in the midst of a 7-0-1 ATS run that’s been loading the pockets of its backers. The Wolfpack knocked off San Diego St. and Georgetown to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2005.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Purdue senior forward Robbie Hummel left it all on the court in Sunday night’s gut-wrenching loss to Kansas. The Boilermakers did everything right for 38 ½ minutes and was on the cusp of eliminating second-seeded Kansas, but they had a pair of terrible offensive possessions and ended up on the short end of a 63-60 decision. Hummel scored 26 points, grabbed nine rebounds and dished out three assists. He drained 9-of-13 shots from the field. Here’s a tip of the cap to Hummel, who had an outstanding, albeit extremely unlucky, career for the Boilers. I wish nothing but the best for him and hate that Purdue didn’t beat KU so his collegiate career could’ve continued for another week.

Although Stan Heath and USF have to be sick about being eliminated by 13th-seeded Ohio, the future is bright for the Bulls, who won their first two NCAA games in school history by smashing Cal and Temple.

I’m sure this is a stretch but I’m hard pressed to remember a recent game in which I saw more defensive intensity than Sunday’s Cincy-FSU war, especially in the second half. There was about a six-minute stretch in which every dribble and pass by every offensive player was tenaciously contested. I’m not sure the Bearcats had any possessions during said stretch in which at least one (if not two or three) passes were deflected by the Seminoles. Fortunately for Mick Cronin, his players stepped up and made several tough shots that were well defended.

The Gators won their two games by 60 combined points.

RIP to legendary sportswriter Furman Bisher, who died Sunday at the age of 93. Bisher worked for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution from 1950-2009 and was an icon in the industry. He scored the only post Black Sox interview ever with ‘Shoeless’ Joe Jackson in 1949 and he often sipped sweet tea on Ty Cobb’s front porch. Bisher was best known for his golf coverage and he played many rounds with Bobby Jones and Ben Hogan. Selah.

A handicapper’s look at the Sweet Sixteen
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

The first weekend of the Madness is in the history books and only 16 teams remain standing in the NCAA Tournament. Let’s take a look at those 16 teams and assess their chances for tournament success as the field gets reduced to the Final Four this coming weekend. Teams are listed in rotation order.

Wisconsin is a mirror image of their head coach Bo Ryan: tough as nails. There’s no questioning the Badgers execution or heart, but this is not one of the more talented teams that Ryan has coached during his tenure in Madison. The Badgers are an offensively challenged ballclub that relies heavily on their three-point shooting. Four of their top five scorers average at least one made three pointer per game. Their leading rebounder, Ryan Evans, is 6-6, 210; not a team with a dominant inside presence. We’ve seen the Badgers end up on the wrong side of nearly every “step up in class” game away from home this year, with two exceptions: their win at Ohio State and their win over Vandy to reach the Sweet Sixteen.

Fab Melo’s academic ineligibility wasn’t a major factor for Syracuse in either of its two wins to reach the second weekend. It’s certainly not like Orange head coach Jim Boeheim doesn’t have anyone to replace him. 6-9 frosh Rakeem Christmas had eight points, 11 boards and three blocks in the win over Kansas State. Is Syracuse devastated by the news of Melo’s academic ineligibility? It sure doesn’t seem that way. Forward CJ Fair: “I think this is not going to stop our train from moving. Of course Fab is a beast, but we’ve got guys that can go out there and play and keep winning.”

Cincinnati is on a 12-3 ATS run away from home; a veteran team that consistently plays good basketball in hostile environments. Mick Cronin’s Bearcats notched SU wins at Georgetown, Pitt, UConn, Villanova and St John’s in Big East play, then knocked off heavyweights Texas and Florida State here in the tourney. The single most important factor in both wins last weekend might well have been the Bearcats’ refuse to lose attitude, making plays down the stretch of tight games. They’re in excellent current form, 9-2 SU and ATS in their last 11, the only losses coming by a single point at South Florida and when they were completely out of gas in the Big East Championship game.

Ohio State outrebounded Loyola-Maryland 46-23 in its tourney opener. They followed that up by completely stifling Gonzaga on the defensive end of the floor, holding the offensively potent Zags under 40% shooting from the floor. Thad Matta’s squad doesn’t have great depth, but they’ve got great talent and chemistry, with four of their five key contributors starting every game together this season.

Florida won back-to-back national titles in 2006 and 2007 under Billy Donovan, and they reached the Elite Eight last year before losing to Butler in overtime. After losing four out of five to close out the regular season, the Gators were never tested in blowout wins over Virginia and Norfolk State to get here. The competition gets much tougher for the Gators this weekend!

Marquette ranked in the top 10 in the country in assists on one end of the court and in steals on the other end. And with a 15-5 ATS mark in their last 20 ballgames, it’s clear that the betting markets have been lagging behind their performance. Big East Player of the Year Jae Crowder poured in 42 points with 29 rebounds, six assists, seven steals and two blocks in the opening weekend of action; exactly the type of production he’ll need if the Golden Eagles are going to reach the Final Four for the first time since Dwayne Wade left town.

Coming off a four-wins-in-four-days run in the Big East tournament, Louisville was shipped out West for tough tests against Davidson and New Mexico. They were good enough to grind out a pair of tight victories, despite continued offensive struggles. Rick Pitino’s defense is nothing short of outstanding, ranked in the top ten nationally in defensive field goal percentage allowed and in steals. But an offense that came into the tourney ranked 219th in field goal percentage, 260th in three-point shooting percentage and 258th in turnovers spent the weekend struggling to put the biscuit in the basket.

Michigan State is one of four Big Ten teams to reach the Sweet Sixteen; most of any conference. But the Spartans track record under Tom Izzo – six trips to the Final Four since 1999 – is second to none in the conference. They tied for the Big Ten regular season title and won the Big Ten tournament. Like Ohio State, Michigan State is a legitimate threat to win it all.

Indiana is not a dominant defensive ballclub, but they were good enough to steal one from no. 1 Kentucky with a buzzer beating three pointer at Assembly Hall in Bloomington back in November, despite allowing the Wildcats to shoot 56% from the floor. Kentucky fans will pack the Georgia Dome for the neutral site rematch in Atlanta and the Hoosiers did not fare well stepping up in class in hostile environments for much of the season.

Kentucky might be the best team in the country, but they’ve been a pointspread disaster area all year. The Wildcats 13-22 ATS mark ranks dead last among NCAA tournament teams; consistently overvalued by the betting markets. We saw head coach John Calipari leaving his starters on the floor for 165 of the 200 possible minutes in their win over Western Kentucky on Thursday, with only two contributors from his bench. It was a similar story on Saturday in their near-perfect performance to destroy Iowa State. Depth could be a legitimate issue for John Calipari’s squad moving forward.

In the regular season, Xavier never really got its swagger back after the well-publicized throwdown at the end of their blowout win over Cincinnati back in December. At the time, the Musketeers were 8-0, including wins at Vandy, at Butler and against Purdue. They went 13-12 in their last 25 games prior to the start of the Big Dance, underachieving repeatedly. But with veteran backcourt mates Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons leading the way, Xavier made all the big plays during crunch time while beating Notre Dame and Lehigh to get here.

Baylor can be a frustrating team to watch at times. They’ve got Final Four caliber talent, but their execution down the stretch of tight games was downright miserable for a good portion of the season – turnovers, poor shot selection and a remarkable propensity for blowing leads and ATS covers. That being said, the one thing Baylor does right during crunch time is making free throws, hitting at a 75% clip over the course of the season, among the top 25 in the country in that department.

Ohio did just about everything right in their tournament opening upset win over Michigan. The Bobcats shot the ball extremely well throughout: 51% from the floor, 38% from three point range and 88% from the free throw line. They avoided mistakes, committing only nine turnovers. And they shut down the Wolverines best shooters, as Trey Burke, Stu Douglass, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Zack Novak combined to shoot just 13-of-42 from the floor. They followed their first upset win with another one. All MAC junior point guard DJ Cooper – the same guy who led the Bobcats to a shocking first round upset over Georgetown as a freshman back in 2010 – made all the big plays down the stretch, leading John Groce’s squad to the Sweet Sixteen.

The biggest injury story of the opening weekend was the fractured wrist suffered by North Carolina star point guard Kendall Marshall. Even though Marshall finished their win over Creighton with his fifth double-double in the Tar Heels last six games, his status for the coming weekend is still very much in doubt as I write this. Marshall is irreplaceable for Roy Williams. He dished 351 assists in his first 36 games. Reggie Bullock ranks second on the team with 45 assists.

NC State is peaking at the right time: 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS in their last seven ballgames, the lone loss coming by two points to North Carolina in the ACC Tournament. With all five starters averaging in double figures, and three of the five shooting 50% from the floor or better, Mark Gottfried’s squad is loaded with scoring threats from anywhere on the floor.

Kansas ranks in the top 10 nationally in defensive field goal percentage allowed. The Jayhawks rank in the Top 50 nationally in rebounding margin, consistently controlling the glass. They have all kinds of future NBA talent on their roster – Thomas Robinson, Jeff Withey and Tyshawn Taylor are all projected draft picks this June. And, quite frankly, Robinson is as good as any college basketball player I’ve seen all year; the type of dominant low post presence that a true national championship contender needs. Bill Self’s squad survived a tough test against Purdue to get here; the type of ‘getting over the hump’ come-from-behind victory that should give the Jayhawks even more confidence moving forward.

NCAA Tournament 1st Week Review
By Lenny Del Genio

Assuming you, like the NCAA does, refer to Tuesday and Wednesday’s games as the Opening Round, three rounds are in the books in the 2012 NCAA Tournament. Some interesting betting trends have already been established when it comes to making College Basketball Picks.

Through 52 games, we have a remarkable 27-27 ATS split between favorites and underdogs. We qualify this by stating that we are counting both Purdue and Alabama as the favorites for their second round games.

Underdogs cashed three of four ‘Play-In’ or opening round games on Tuesday & Wednesday and were very close to a 4-0 ATS sweep had it not been for a historic choke job by Iona, who blew a NCAA Tournament record 25 point lead against BYU. Interestingly, Tuesday’s other underdog Mississippi Valley State blew a 16-point lead, but was able to hold on for the cover against Western Kentucky. Wednesday’s dogs had no such issues as both Vermont and South Florida rolled to outright victories.

Thursday was considered a ‘ho-hum’ day as far as the first big day of NCAA Tournament betting goes. Favorites held a 10-6 ATS advantage, yet only two lower seeds won games straight up. One of those was Virginia Commonwealth, a Final Four participant last year, whose 62-59 win over 5-seed Wichita State would hardly be considered as ‘shocking’ by the majority of college basketball bettors despite coming in as a 6.5-point dog. That win by VCU also continued a NCAA Tournament trend that has seen at least one 12 seed advance past the Round of 64 in 22 of the previous 24 years.

The one real upset Thursday was Colorado over UNLV, an 11 seed beating a 6 seed as six-point dogs. It was interesting that there were a pair of games where the higher seed was actually an underdog and both of those teams (Gonzaga and Iowa State) rolled to double digit victories.

Friday likewise was a day that started with few surprises. In fact, only one lower seed (11 NC State over 6 San Diego St) advanced prior to dinner time. Interesting is that the lower seeded Wolfpack were favored. Then, all hell broke loose. Not just one, but TWO 15 seeds won their games as Norfolk State stunned Missouri (a popular Final Four pick) and Lehigh ousted Duke.

This was the first NCAA Tournament ever that multiple 15 seeds advanced. Consider that prior to this year, only FOUR 15 seeds had ever won a NCAA Tournament Game and none since 2001. There has still never been an instance of a 15-seed winning more than one game in the same Tournament.

Those weren’t the only upsets though. 13th seeded Ohio University eliminated 4th seeded Michigan, the 24th time in the last 28 NCAA Tournaments that at least one 13 seed advanced. The Bobcats would then go on to become the first 13-seed to make the Sweet 16 since ’06 (Bradley) when they upset 12-seed South Florida Sunday evening. That also reversed a trend that had previously seen 13 seeds go just 1-8 straight up vs. 12th seeded counterparts.

Overall, Friday saw an 8-8 ATS split between favorites and dogs. Purdue was a lower seeded team that opened as a favorite, but was bet all the way to a 2-pt dog in some spots by tip-off. The Boilermakers beat St. Mary’s 72-69 after jumping out to a big lead.

Saturday saw a ‘return to normalcy’ as every higher seeded team advanced. Favorites went 5-3 ATS and 7-1 straight up as there was again a lower seeded team favored (Vandy over Wisconsin) that lost.

Sunday saw underdogs go 5-3 ATS. The upsets were Ohio over South Florida, NC State over Georgetown and Cincinnati beat Florida State.

With Cincinnati’s win over FSU, that meant none of the four regionals will feature all top four seeds. The East has definitely been the most “chalk” bracket with the Bearcats being the only lower seeded team to win a game. There is a good chance at an upset in the Sweet 16 with Wisconsin taking on top-seeded Syracuse. Cincinnati now meets Ohio State, two of four teams from the Buckeye State remaining in the field.

The South region certainly appears to be Kentucky’s for the taking. They get a shot at avenging one of their two losses this season when the play Indiana in the Sweet 16. Oddsmakers have opened the Wildcats as 8.5-point favorites and that number has since been bet up. The other Sweet 16 matchup in the South sees Baylor playing Xavier, one of three double digit seeds still remaining in the field.

The Midwest Region features another 1 vs. 4 seed matchup as Michigan State meets Louisville, or Tom Izzo vs. Rick Pitino. Winner there gets the winner of 3-seed Marquette and 7-seed Florida, two of the most impressive looking tournament teams thus far.

The West Region has both of its top two seeds left and each will take on a double digit seed. Top seed North Carolina meets 13-seed Ohio, but could be without PG Kendall Marshall. Two seed Kansas meets 11-seed NC State.

Sweet 16 Betting News and Notes
By Steve Merril
Covers.com

East Region

The East held form in the top half of the bracket with No. 1-seed Syracuse and No. 4-seed Wisconsin advancing to the Sweet Sixteen. From the bottom half, No. 2-seed Ohio State is still alive with No. 6-seed Cincinnati rounding out the group. There were no upsets in the East in the first eight games played as the higher seed won every game and we only saw one upset in the Round of 32 when No. 6-seed Cincinnati beat No. 3-seed Florida State 62-56 as a 2-point underdog. However, of the top seeds, only Wisconsin made it through with a perfect 2-0 against the spread (ATS) record as Syracuse and Ohio State both went 1-1 ATS last week.

Ohio State is a solid 8-point favorite over Cincinnati on Thursday night, but the Bearcats have been on a terrific pointspread run since the second week of February, going 10-3 ATS over their last 13 games, including a 4-2 ATS mark as an underdog. Syracuse is a 3.5-point favorite over Wisconsin in the first game on Thursday.

Unlike Cincinnati, the Orangemen are on a terrible pointspread run at just 5-11 ATS over their last 16 games. However, Syracuse has won 14 of those 16 games straight up, with nine of those wins coming by seven or more points. Keep in mind Syracuse is now playing without their 7-foot center Fab Melo, who was ruled ineligible last week before the NCAA Tournament began. Melo is only sixth on the team in scoring at 7.8 points per game, however he is a force defensively and was name the Big East Defensive Player of the Year. He also led the Orangemen in rebounding (5.8) and blocks (2.9) per game this season.

West Region

The West has three of the top four seeds remaining alive with No. 1-seed Michigan State, No.3-seed Marquette, and No. 4-seed Louisville playing in the Sweet Sixteen. After No. 15-seed Norfolk State’s major upset of No. 2-seed Missouri as a 21-point underdog, the bottom of the bracket was wide open and No. 7-seed Florida took advantage to complete the foursome. Florida also had the easiest game in the Round of 32 as they beat Norfolk State by a whopping 34 points (84-50) as a 14-point favorite. Michigan State, Louisville, and Marquette won their games by a combined 16 points.

Both games in the West on Thursday night are projected to be close as Marquette is just a 1.5-point favorite over Florida and Michigan State is just a 5-point favorite over Louisville. Favorites cashed at a 75 percent clip (9-3 ATS) in the first two rounds in the West Region with their average win coming by a whopping 14.9 points per game.

Midwest Region

The Midwest didn’t quite play out as the other three regions. The top two seeds, No. 1-seed North Carolina and No. 2-seed Kansas are still alive. But the No. 3-seed through No. 10 seeds were all eliminated which left No. 11-seed NC State and No. 13-seed Ohio as two surprise teams in the Sweet 16. Kansas narrowly covered the spread against Detroit in their 85-70 win as a 14-point favorite and were never covering against Purdue as an 8-point favorite and the Jayhawks were lucky to escape with a 63-60 win as they trailed outright for the majority of that game.

North Carolina has been the most impressive team in the Midwest as the Tar Heels won their two games by 19 and 14 points, while going 2-0 ATS. However, UNC suffered a major blow on Sunday when point guard Kendall Marshall fractured his wrist against Creighton. Marshall underwent surgery on Monday and had a screw inserted in his injured wrist and his status for Friday's game versus Ohio is still uncertain. Marshall is shooting 46.7 percent from the floor this season, including 35.4 percent from 3-point range, and most importantly he leads the Tar Heels with 351 assists. No other player has more than 45 assists this season.

NC State and Ohio are a combined 4-0 ATS so far in the NCAA Tournament. The Wolfpack and the Bobcats are both sizeable underdogs on Friday night; NC State is +8 against Kansas, while Ohio is +10.5 against North Carolina. The Wolfpack are on a perfect 7-0-1 ATS run with five of those wins coming in the role of an underdog. Ohio actually came into this tournament on a downswing as the Bobcats were on a 1-4 ATS run prior to their two pointspread covers against Michigan and South Florida.

South Region

The South mostly played to form with three of the top four seeds remaining alive in the NCAA Tournament with No. 1-seed Kentucky, No. 3-seed Baylor, and No. 4-seed Indiana all making the Sweet 16. The bottom two games of the South bracket saw two upsets when No. 10-seed Xavier beat No. 7-seed Notre Dame and No. 15-seed Lehigh beat No. 2-seed Duke. Xavier completes the quartet. This will be the fourth time over the last five years in which the Musketeers have won at least two games in the NCAA tournament.

Kentucky (-9 over Indiana) and Baylor (-6 over Xavier) are both big favorites on Friday to advance to the Elite 8. After failing to cover their large 26.5-point spread against overmatched Western Kentucky, the Wildcats showed their superiority with an 87-71 win over Iowa State as an 11-point favorite. Baylor is 2-0 ATS if you are a good shopper as the Bears snuck inside the number (-7.5) with a 68-60 win over South Dakota State. Next, they blew out Colorado by 17 points (80-63) also as a 7.5-point favorite. Xavier is 2-0 ATS so far, while Indiana is 1-1 ATS. Overall, underdogs hold a slight edge in the South going 7-5 ATS with five outright wins so far.

Kentucky remains a heavy favorite to win the NCAA Tournament with a 30 percent chance based on their true mathematical odds, followed by Ohio State at 14 percent, and North Carolina at 11 percent.

Return of the Big 10
By Antony Dinero
VegasInsider.com

For 10 consecutive years, the ACC owned the annual early measuring stick for conference supremacy in college basketball. Any time a fan out in hoops-crazy Indiana or intensely proud cities like Detroit and Chicago wanted to laud the Big Ten's depth, they had to do it knowing those schools throughout the southern East coast owned scoreboard. Entering 2009, the ACC-Big Ten challenge may as well have been renamed the Atlantic Coast Invitational.

Meanwhile, the behemoth of the Big East grew and swallowed most of the remaining attention, while Billy Donovan created a national program at Florida, joining Kentucky in casting shadows in the SEC.

The Big Ten turned into an also-ran where even the best teams at anchor programs Michigan State and Ohio State often underachieved.

So, yes, the thunder the Big Ten has brought in 2011-12 is certainly surprising. The conference has legitimately been the country's best. There are four schools alive in the NCAA Tournament, joining the Big East in supplying a quarter of the remaining field. Had Purdue not imploded against Kansas, it would've been five.

Quietly, the Big Ten has been mounting a comeback and seeing former powers restored. In 2009 and 2010, the league finally beat the ACC in the aforementioned challenge, albeit by the narrowest of margins (6-5).

This past November, they drubbed the ACC, 8-4, and by then, many were already of the opinion that has become gospel today -- the Big Ten is back!

Tom Crean has been rebuilding Indiana in hopes of returning the program to the spotlight. That Hoosiers team arrived this season. Michigan has been revitalized by head coach John Beilein, even with the early exit to Ohio this past weekend. Purdue has had dynamite teams under Matt Painter, who got the most out of his recently eliminated version. Tubby Smith has had some success at Minnesota and is one game from an NIT Final Four. And Bill Carmody has painfully gotten closer and closer to taking Northwestern to the NCAAs.

All the while, Tom Izzo, Thad Matta and the unheralded Bo Ryan, three of the best instructors in the game, have set the tone. Positive results seemed inevitable, but until they actually came to fruition, it never seemed to come together collectively.

Since Michigan's 1989 title, the only school to bring a national championship back to the Big Ten was the memorable Mateen Cleaves-led Michigan State squad in 2000. The Spartans have been the lone participant in a title game this century, while the Horizon League, a baby brother of a regional league, has sent Butler there in successive tournaments.

Considering this has been the season where the Big Ten's rebirth has become glaring, the best way to make it official is for one of its teams to cut down the nets in New Orleans this April. With four schools scattered among three regions, odds are decent that one breaks through.

Here's a rundown of the candidates and their Tournament Odds at Bovada.lv

Indiana (27-10 SU, 18-10 ATS)

Reasons they can run four more: Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller are young, but kids these days are naïve enough to not get tripped up by inexperience. The sophomore wing is an elite athlete whose confidence is growing by the day, while the other is a versatile 7-foot freshman whose skills can be refined, but whose instincts can't be taught. Both will be special, so there's an outside chance they can play at an elite level for two more weeks. Christian Watford, Will Sheehey and Jordan Hulls each have terrific basketball IQs and complement the two whiz kids beautifully. Crean has successfully created a bunker mentality and has this team believing it can accomplish anything.

Reasons they're on borrowed time: The Hoosiers depth took a major hit when backup guard Verdell Jones blew out a knee in a Big Ten Tournament win over Penn State, but they've persevered thus far and overcame the disadvantage against a VCU team built to exploit that kind of thing. Kentucky, already carrying a revenge factor into Friday's regional semifinal, figures to probe at that potential Achilles' Heel and is more equipped than anyone in the country to succeed at doing so. To win it all, Indiana will have to sweep through Atlanta and New Orleans. Considering it was 0-11 in true road games last year and were just 5-6 this past season, that seems unlikely.

Odds to win the NCAA Tournament: 35/1
Odds to win the South Regional: 6/1

Michigan State (29-7 SU, 23-11 ATS)

Reasons they can run four more: I've heard Draymond Green compared to Magic Johnson numerous times this season and have been convinced it's not hyperbole. No, Green isn't the second coming of Magic. That's an unfair label to put on anyone. Still, he leads like the school's most famous alum once did. His impact in that department is immeasurable. Sparty defends with pride, rebounds relentlessly and enjoys sharing the ball. His game is the epitome of what glue means in basketball-speak. Keith Appling is inconsistent, but there's no faster guard in the field and Green has helped increase his comfort level. Putting a winner like Green under the thumb of Izzo means it's been impossible to impose your will on Michigan State. They'll fight you every second.

Reasons they're on borrowed time: Losing Green for any substantial part of a game would likely spell doom for the Spartans, as they're tied to one player as the key to their success more than any other remaining Big Ten entry. Losing terrific freshman Branden Dawson, a willing defender and rebounder, to an ACL tear in late February means Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne have had to step up with no safety net inside. They've been great thus far and are in a region where size won't play a major role, but that's not likely to remain the case if and when they reach New Orleans.

Odds to win the NCAA Tournament: 13/2
Odds to win West Regional: 6/5

Ohio State (29-7 SU, 17-14 ATS)

Reasons they can run four more: When they get all the individual parts revved up and jelling, there's no team more potent offensively than the Buckeyes. Aaron Craft is the best two-way point guard in the conference, a sticky defender who runs the offense seamlessly, rarely forcing the issue and getting the right guys the ball where they want it. The big dog is Jared Sullinger, whose back-to-the-basket game creates opportunities for shooters. Mix in the size and matchup issues DeShaun Thomas and William Buford create and you can see why opponents have to pick their poison when striving for containment.

Reasons they're on borrowed time: Sullinger has lacked burst over the past few weeks and doesn't seem to be 100 percent. Can he rise to the occasion as the level of competition increases? Unlike years past when Dallas Lauderdale was around to play enforcer, this year's team relies on the raw Evan Ravenel and can't overpower you inside or survive Sullinger getting in foul trouble. Like Michigan State did in the Big Ten Championship, teams are going to play off sophomore Lenzelle Smith and dare him to beat them from the perimeter. He must be up to task, but the verdict is out on whether he's ready.

Odds to win the NCAA Tournament: 11/2
Odds to win the East Regional: 11/10

Wisconsin (26-9 SU, 18-14 ATS)

Reasons they can run four more: Root canals don't feel good, so hearing that comparison come up when coaches reference going up against the Badgers defense gives you an idea of the driving force behind Ryan's team. It's a lock that they'll contest everything, methodically slow the pace and force you out of your comfort zone. Senior Jordan Taylor plays like a 30-year-old and is rarely rattled running the show, while unheralded center Jared Berggren is a legitimate 6-foot-11 game-changer whose athleticism and ability are tough to contend with. He's certainly a candidate to go from relative unknown to household name in two weeks time.

Reasons they're on borrowed time: If Taylor is not knocking down his jumper, this team lacks a true go-to scorer. That can be an advantage in that team ball keeps a defense from focusing on locking up an individual, but it can also hurt you when you're desperate for a basket and have to send out an APB for someone capable of easily getting you one. Getting by top-seeded Syracuse and likely East regional finalist Ohio State in Boston is unquestionably the most difficult road any of the four Big Ten schools have in getting to New Orleans.

Odds to win the NCAA Tournament: 30/1
Odds to win the East Regional: 4/1

West Regional Sweet 16 Game Picks
Sportspic.com

Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans

The College Basketball betting experts who follow the Big East Conference know that Louisville is a very different team at this point in the season. The Cardinals were really sluggish heading into the Big East Conference Tournament in New York on March 7, and in their second-round win over Seton Hall, they looked entirely unconvincing. However, in the quarterfinals the very next day, Louisville flew up and down the court against Marquette, stifling the Golden Eagles in an 84-71 victory that breathed fresh oxygen into the Cardinals’ competitive lungs.

Louisville big man Gorgui Dieng is still a very unpolished offensive player, but his defense and rebounding have been truly spectacular the past two weeks. Dieng’s defense throttled Davidson in Louisville’s round of 64 win in the NCAA tournament this past Thursday, and Dieng was even better on Saturday against New Mexico. He stopped UNM’s star scorer, Drew Gordon, two feet from the basket with the Cardinals clinging to a one-possession lead late in regulation. That play gave Louisville just enough leverage to survive the Lobos’ comeback attempt and advance to the Sweet 16. The Cardinals are not the mediocre squad they in fact were in late February.

However, Michigan State should be up for the challenge. The Spartans took the best punch the Saint Louis Billikens had to offer this past Sunday and were still able to advance to the Sweet 16 in their own right. Saint Louis played picture-perfect defense against Michigan State, but MSU superstar Draymond Green made remarkably good plays at both ends of the floor to carry his team out of trouble. Green is by far the best player on the court, and he’s playing like a young man who simply will not allow his team to be denied on the road to the Final Four. Michigan State also has a lot of size that Louisville will not be able to match. The Cardinals need to create an ugly game, but Michigan State is likely to have an effective counter. Take the Spartans in this contest.

College Basketball Betting Pick: Michigan State

Florida Gators vs. Marquette Golden Eagles

When you do your homework and assess your Sports Bet on this game, it’s worth noting that while Florida has done quite well to get to the Sweet 16, the Gators were undeniably the beneficiaries of the single biggest upset to hit the NCAA tournament thus far. Florida got to play a No. 15 seed instead of a No. 2 seed in the round of 32, thanks to Norfolk State’s shocking takedown of the Missouri Tigers. Norfolk made a very high percentage of its shots in its win over Missouri, and those same three-point shots definitely did not fall against Florida. The Gators gained a 28-point lead at halftime and coasted the rest of the way.

Florida’s opponent, on the other hand, had to work very hard to earn its Sweet 16 berth. As sports betting experts are very much aware of, the Marquette Golden Eagles were playing in difficult conditions on Saturday against the Murray State Racers. The game was played in Kentucky, which happens to be Murray State’s home. Marquette trailed by five points with just over seven minutes left and was able to respond with a 13-2 run that knocked out a very dangerous opponent that had the majority of the crowd support in its favor. Marquette is a tough team, and it is likely to win the battle on the glass against an undersized Florida squad. Take Marquette on Thursday night in Phoenix.

College Basketball Betting Pick: Marquette

Analyzing the Top Seeds
By Antony Dinero
VegasInsider.com

Chalk originated as a horse racing term and is well-known gambling vernacular, but it's wild to hear how loosely it rolls off people's tongues this time of year.

If you're in a bracket pool, riding chalk is met with instant ridicule, as if going against the grain is a badge of honor. It's apparently more interesting to fill out a bracket highlighting your Lehigh-Duke upset pick than it is to place four No. 1s into the Sweet 16.

Pat yourself on the back if you chose the boring approach and had them all alive at this point in the tournament. Stop and immediately start worrying if you chose them all to reach New Orleans. That has only happened once (2008) in the entire history of the tournament. By contrast, a Final Four without a single No. 1 has now occurred three times after last year's upset-filled tourney blasted them all prior to Houston, making it twice in six years that the Final Four has gone on without a top seed.

Bank on no repeat performance. Despite an exciting season filled with great stories like Murray State, this has been a top-heavy year for the truly elite. The selection committee released its seeds this year and they’ve been proven correct.

From Thursday-to-Sunday, one or two may be weeded out, but I'm of the opinion that it's more likely that we'll get a repeat of '06 and see them all get there than we have of watching them each get bounced. Here's a closer look at the No. 1s and the obstacles they face.

Big Blue Chalk: Kentucky is the chalkiest team available for good reason. Everyone among the rotation's top six has an NBA future, while No. 7, freshman Kyle Wiltjer, could develop into that kind of player down the road. If John Calipari ends up cutting down the nets, the Wildcats will be in the conversation among the most talented championship teams in college basketball history. Anthony Davis has changed the game around the rim the way Greg Oden and Emeka Okafor did during their recent Final Four runs. Marquis Teague looks like a better prospect than brother Jeff with his deadly speed and more accurate jumper. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's desire to do whatever it takes has scouts drooling. Terrence Jones has lottery-level talent, while wings Doron Lamb and Darius Miller have combined for 123 3-pointers at a shooting clip of over 42 percent to keep defenses honest. Calipari has done of one of his best jobs in battling complacency and ridding the team of bad habits, which is why even when Iowa State rallied to tie that third round clash, Kentucky never panicked. The Wildcats simply took their game up a few notches to a place teams at this level aren't supposed to reach.

Final four reasons to balk:

1. Jones and Lamb felt the sting of losing in last year's Final Four, but have rarely stepped up to the plate to lead by example, leaving that role to senior Darius Miller and the anomaly that is Kidd-Gilchrist. Do they have it in them to turn that pain into fuel? Right now, the verdict is out.

2. Davis has really grown comfortable taking the 18-20 footer, but that's not where UK needs him. Teams will increasingly attempt to bait him into that easy out.

3. The Calipari curse, perhaps tied to his cleaning up based on one-and-done, has kept him from delivering a championship to Memphis or Kentucky yet. He probably still cringes watching former Kansas Jayhawks standout Mario Chalmers with the Heat.

4. You know Kentucky's defense will be there, but in the Mar. 11 loss to Vandy, a similar scoring drought to the one that cost them in last year's national semifinal peeked out and reminded us where this team is most vulnerable. Indiana is one of the highest-scoring teams left in the field and is capable of taking advantage of an off-shooting night.

Green Chalk: Draymond Green originally committed to Kentucky, but it's almost poetic that a player with his last name has made such an impact at Michigan State. Kentucky’s Davis is going No. 1 in the NBA draft, but Day Day can be this year's Kemba Walker, a force that simply won't be denied. Help has come in the form of frontcourt mates, Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix, who have helped the Spartans rack up an 86-42 advantage in points in the paint through the first few rounds. Brandon Wood has stepped up and shot 8-of-14 from the field in helping to create space, while blur of a point guard Keith Appling has been consistent and generates mismatches with his speed. Saint Louis nearly tripped up the Spartans thanks to tempo and a few lucky shots to keep things close, but they kept their heads throughout, fed off Green and exhibited championship composure. They've already claimed one tournament in that fashion, edging Ohio State for the Big Ten and their top seed. Tom Izzo has a national championship and another title game appearance, so his influence certainly helps.

Final four reasons to balk:

1. Rick Pitino has never lost a Sweet 16 game, a perfect 9-0 in his distinguished career. His Louisville squad is up first for Izzo, a spectacular 7-2 in regional quarterfinals.

2. The Spartans are so reliant on Green to lead them that he won't be able to leave the floor for more than a minute or two. Can he continue to play at such a high level without wearing down? No team's chances are more closely tied to one individual.

3. Considering Michigan State must own the paint, it's disconcerting that Green, Payne and Nix aren't the greatest free-throw shooters. Teams figure to start putting them on the line as opposed to giving up dunks and layups, so the trio has to improve on a collective 68 percent FT shooting. Thus far in the tournament, they're 8-of-12, nearly right at that dubious average.

4. The loss of Branden Dawson, a key figure at power forward for most of the season, figures to catch up with Sparty at some point. Izzo questioned his team's ability to handle complicated matchups going forward, knowing what a luxury the strong, rangy freshman offered.

Carolina Blue Chalk: North Carolina is the only team in the country that can match Kentucky's vast frontcourt talent, especially now that John Henson looks to be fine after his wrist scare. Of course, now another wrist injury has Tar Heel nation worried sick, as it remains unknown whether point guard Kendall Marshall can make it back and how effective he can be after fracturing a bone in his non-shooting hand. Roy Williams knows what it takes to win at this level and had his team playing at his desired pace, thriving on secondary breaks and using their skill and athleticism to run away from opponents. The offense can run through the sublime Harrison Barnes, while Reggie Bullock and P.J. Hairston are capable of stepping up in increased minutes. No one is going to cry for the Tar Heels about losing their point guard considering the talent they've assembled.

Final four reasons to balk:

1. Marshall's wrist is a bad break, literally. Even if he returns and is able to play with the screw inserted during Monday's surgery, he'll be affected by the injury. It may not even bother his shot, but dribbling, comfort level and mobility won't be what we've grown accustomed to seeing from him. He's dished out 351 assists this season and was 35-for-60 from the field in March prior to getting hurt against Creighton. It's a serious blow.

2. Even when Marshall was perfectly healthy, backcourt depth was a concern. Having lost Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald earlier this season, the Tar Heels were already down to relying on 19-year-old freshman Stillman White, shooting less than 25 percent from the field. Ideally, he wouldn't play in competitive situations at this stage of his career, but Williams has no choice but to throw him out there.

3. Barnes should already be playing in the NBA, but has only shown the killer instinct that would guarantee his greatness in flashes. He's capable of putting UNC on his back, but no one can be sure he will.

4. After playing Cinderella Ohio in the Round of 16, Williams will see either Mark Gottfried and ACC rival North Carolina State, which nearly beat him on Mar. 10 or Kansas successor Bill Self in the regional final. Both would have good ideas of how to take advantage of UNC's Marshall-related deficiencies.

Orange Chalk: Syracuse has overcome a scandal-filled year and actually set a school-record for wins. When you consider the teams Jim Boeheim has put out there over his 36-year career, that's pretty special. This Orange team is like an octopus, able to squeeze the life out of you with anyone of its tentacles, although it is missing their biggest one in 7-footer Fab Melo. Boeheim has recruited a team with savvy, ball skills and length, perfectly suited to run his 2-3 zone and execute a balanced offense. Even with Melo out, the Orange rolled through the incredibly deep Big East losing only once in league play before an upset loss in the conference tourney. Scoop Jardine, Kris Joseph, Brandon Triche, Dion Waiters, CJ Fair and James Southerland have now each taken 200 or more shots. That type of balance is a nightmare to prepare for.

Final four reasons to balk:

1. Melo allowed the Orange to rebound effectively despite playing zone and blocked three shots per game. His absence has been downplayed by Boeheim and his teammates because no one wants to throw him under the bus for flirting with ineligibility, but there's no question that blame will find itself his way if and when the team is eliminated.

2. The Orange led the country in turnovers created for most of the season, so even though you love how disruptive they can be, a team that relies on miscues for easy offense and would be lost without those points in transition is difficult to trust.

3. Boeheim's style is vulnerable to teams that can shoot the ball from beyond the arc well, so while they can thank Wisconsin for eliminating Vanderbilt, the Orange must be aware that the Badgers have hit 10 3-pointers in each of their tournament wins. Should they survive, they'll get an Ohio State team that strokes it well or a Cincinnati squad that led the Big East in 3-point makes.

4. Jardine keyed the big win over Kansas State with his terrific play, getting into the lane at will, setting up teammates and finishing with 16 points and eight assists. He's the straw that stirs the drink, so it's downright scary that he's shooting a career-worst 53.8 percent from the free-throw line. If he doesn't solve his issues, that will ultimately cost Syracuse dearly.

Sweet 16 Action Report
By Covers.com

We talked to a couple sportsbooks Wednesday evening about Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchups and the overwhelming topic of discussion was the fact that they’re seeing fairly balanced action so far.

However, we have seen a couple of interesting moves since the opening numbers were posted.

Here’s the scoop:

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Syracuse Orange - Open: -4.5 Move: -3.5

At this point, we all know the Badgers hope to grind out games, milk the shot clock and stay within striking distance for as long as possible. And now that Wisconsin has shown a bit of offensive spark recently, bettors appear to like their matchup against the Melo-less Orange.

“I think this is case where sharps like the way Wisconsin is playing a bit more than the Orange recently,” Mike Pierce of Sportsbook.com told Covers.com. The Badgers are 3-1 against the spread in the last four, while ‘Cuse is 1-3 ATS. We are split down middle on game – 52 percent of the cash is on Syracuse.”

Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans- Open: -4, Move: -5

There’s a lot of love out there for the Spartans as we head into the Sweet 16. John Avello, oddsmaker at the Wynn Hotel Sportsbook, said that he has seen a little money come in on Michigan State to win the title and wasn’t surprised about the slight odds adjustment in this one.

“The leadership and poise of this team is amazing,” Avello said. “Tom Izzo has this team battle-tested and right now, they can play a few different styles to beat you. They’re just picking what’s going to work with each particular opponent.”

Pierce added that his shop has been stuck on Michigan State -5 since the open adding “if we move this in any direction, it will probably be in the Spartans’ favor as 65 percent of the cash is coming in on MSU.”

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Ohio State Buckeyes - Open: -7 Move: -8, Total Open: 131 Move: 129

Public bettors moved this line a bit, up to OSU -8 at a couple of shops, but the story here is the dropping total. The Bearcats have played under in four of their last five Tournament games.

“That’s just the game Cincinnati wants to play,” Avello said. “They’re going to work the ball around and use the clock to their advantage. They’ll pound it inside to begin possessions, kick it out, and then look back in again. After the brawl, Cincinnati has become a very tough team to play against, with coach Mick Cronin leading the way.”

Pierce reports that his shop is was taking 79 percent action on the Bearcats at +7.5 as of Wednesday evening while both “sharps and majority of betting public likes the under here. We opened 131, and now it’s at 129 with 78 percent on the under.”

Florida Gators vs. Marquette Golden Eagles – Open: -1.5 Move: -2

This pointspread has been bouncing between -1.5 to -2 at a number of books since the open, but Pierce says he wouldn’t be surprised to see more Marquette support. Sportsbook.com had Marquette at -1.5 Wednesday evening.

“Florida surely misses not having Will Yeguete (foot injury) against a team like Marquette and I can see this line being -2 or -2.5 at game time,” Pierce said.

ATS Sweet 16 Preview
By ATS Consultants

Let’s take a look at the Sweet 16 from the NCAA Tournament. Let’s start out West in Phoenix where Michigan State takes on Louisville and Marquette faces Florida. Last week we said, “Expect the unexpected in this tournament.” There have been no buzzer beaters but would have expected two number 2 seeds falling on the same day in Duke and Missouri. But the top seeds are still around in Kentucky, Michigan State, North Carolina and Syracuse.

We'll start in the West (Phoenix), from Phoenix on Thursday where #1 Michigan State (29-7) plays #4 Louisville (28-9). This is a matchup of two of the best coaches in the game with MSU’s Tom Izzo facing Louisville’s Rick Pitino. The Spartans are a big, physical team that can score and shoots 48% from the floor. Senior PF Draymond Green (6-7, 230) leads the way with 16.3ppg and 10.5rpg. He had a triple-double against LIU. The backcourt is led by PG Keith Appling (11.5ppg, 3.9apg). He scored 19 points against LIU in the opener. They have very good size and a decent bench. They destroyed Long Island in their opener, winning 89-67 and then led St. Louis most of the game but struggled to close, winning 65-61. This was a good team for the half-court Spartans to face as they were more athletic. Sparty shot 54% from the field and were 4-of-10 from beyond the arc. Now they take on a team that’s the extreme opposite of St. Louis in Louisville. #4 Louisville won the Big East but their offense isn’t as high-power as they’ve been in the past (average 69ppg). The Cards shoot just 43% from the floor but their defense has been sensational, allowing just 61.2ppg and 38% from the floor. This is a poor perimeter shooting team (30% 3pt). They had some tough matchups, defeating Davidson, 69-62 and New Mexico 59-56. In the New Mexico game, they shot 46% from the floor but were outrebounded 34-23. They allowed 15 offensive rebounds to the Lobos. Junior G Peyton Siva (6-0, 180, 9.2ppg, 5.5apg) leads the way with his speed and quickness. Up front, soph. Gorgui Dieng (6-11, 235, 9.3ppg, 9.1rpg) patrols the paint as a shotblocker. Russ Smith (6-0, 160, 11.4ppg) led the Cards with 17 points off the bench. The defense forced Michigan State to shoot just 5-of-23 from the three-point line. The Cards do have the size to face MSU. Freshman Chane Behanon (6-6, 250, 9.1ppg, 7.4rpg) will likely get the duties to defend Draymond Green.

The other game features #3 Marquette (27-7) taking on #7 Florida (25-10). This should be a track meet between two exciting teams with excellent guards. Marquette averages 75.9ppg and shoots 46% from the floor. They allows teams to shoot 40.2% from the field and 31.8% from beyond the arc. Senior G Darius Johnson-Odom (6-2, 215, 18.5ppg) is one of the best players in the Big East who can shoot it from deep (39%). Senior Jae Crowder (6-6, 235, 17.6ppg, 8.4rpg) is a force up front despite not having a lot of height. He can take bigger players to the perimeter and drain threes (35%). They are not very tall up front but great guards can take you a long way. That lack of height didn’t bother them that much against Murray State, winning 62-53 or against a bigger BYU team, winning 88-68. They did get outrebounded by Murray State, 41-36 and having 6-6 Crowder and 6-7 Jamil Wilson may end up catching up with them at some point. Soph. Davante Gardner (6-8, 290, 9.5ppg, 5.5rpg) gives them about 20mpg up front. #7 Florida is a pretty good team that is on a major roll, crushing their opponents by average of 30 points in their first two games. The Gators average 76.3ppg and shoots 46.4% from the field. Their defense allowed 65ppg and 43% from the field but it was an Achilles’ heel coming into the tournament. That hasn’t bothered them when they routed Virginia, 71-45 or Norfolk State, 84-50. They did get a great break when Norfolk State upset Missouri. A game with the Tigers would have been a classic. The Gators have some very good guards led by junior Kenny Boynton (6-2, 189, 16.1ppg, 42% 3pt), who had 20 points against Virginia.

Freshman Bradley Beal (6-3, 207, 14.6ppg, 6.7rpg) is a potential lottery pick and senior G Erving Walker (5-8, 177, 12.1ppg, 4.6apg, 37%3pt). This is a team that has good size as well up front though junior Erik Murphy (6-10, 230, 10.5ppg) is more of a face-up four and not very physical. Soph. Patric Young (6-9, 247,10.3ppg, 6.4rpg) provides rebounding and size. The Gators shoot 38% from beyond the arc and they will have to shoot well from the perimeter to win this game.

In the South (Atlanta), #1 Kentucky (33-2) is a well-deserved number one with their outstanding defense and dribble-drive motion offense. They take on #4 Indiana (27-8) in the Sweet 16 on Friday. These two teams met on Dec. 10, 2011 with the Hoosiers coming up with the 73-72 upset win on Christian Watford’s 3-point buzzer beater. Kentucky shot 56% from the field but just 10 of 17 from the line and allowed Indiana to shoot 9 of 15 beyond the arc. Kentucky turned it over 16 times, while Indiana turned it over 18 times. In the NCAA Tournament, Kentucky rolled over Western Kentucky, 81-66 and beat Iowa State, 87-71. Their defensive field goal percentage (37.5%) is near the top of the nation. It's tough to score inside when you have soph. Terrence Jones (6-9, 252, 12.6ppg, 7.2rpg) and freshman Anthony Davis (6-10, 220, 14.3ppg, 10.1rpg, 4.6bpg). Davis leads the nation in blocked shots. Freshman G Marquis Teague (6-2, 189, 9.9ppg, 4.8apg) had a big game in the opener with 24 points, while soph. G Doron Lamb (6-4,210, 13.4ppg) needs to be their perimeter threat (47% 3pt). They have everything but experience. The Hoosiers managed to beat VCU, 63-61 and New Mexico State in the opener by 13, without starting point guard Verdell Jones III (7.5ppg, 3.2apg), who blew out his knee in the Big 10 Tournament and is done for his career. Junior Jordan Hulls (6-0, 181, 11.7ppg, 3.2apg) is a pure shooter but not a creator. But he can flat-out shoot, averaging 49% from beyond the arc. Indiana shoots 49% overall from the field and averages 77pg. Their defense buckled down against VCU, allowing the Rams to score just four points in the final 12 minutes. The Hoosiers allow teams to shoot 42.4% from the field and 35% from beyond the arc. Freshman Cody Zeller (6-11, 230, 15.5ppg, 6.5rpg) might eventually be better than his older brother Tyler, but he will definitely have his hands full against Davis. He did have 11 points against him in the first game. Watford (6-9, 225, 12.2ppg, 5.8rpg, 45% 3pt) is a step-out, four who can shoot the three, just ask Kentucky. Soph. guard Victor Oladipo (6-5, 214, 10.7ppg, 5.4rpg) is an athletic wing, while soph. G Will Sheehy (6-6, 200, 8.6ppg) hit the big shot against VCU to win the game. Kentucky has already started talking about getting revenge for this game. The winner of this game faces the winner of the Baylor/Xavier game.

#3 Baylor (29-7) is a very talented team that averages 75ppg and shoots 47% from the floor. They also shoot 38% from beyond the arc. They had a pretty good bracket, beating South Dakota State by 8 and Colorado by 17 to get to the Sweet 16. Brett Haslip (6-2, 180), a sophomore transfer from Boston College, drained nine three-pointers to finish with 27 against Colorado and also scored 17 in the opener. This is a shooting guard who averaged just 9.3ppg coming into this tournament. This is also a very athletic team led by freshman Quincy Miller (6-9, 210, 11ppg, 4.9rpg) and soph. Perry Jones III (6-11, 235, 13.4ppg, 7.7rpg). Senior Quincy Acy (6-7, 235, 11.5ppg, 7.2rpg) adds toughness in the paint. Senior Anthony Jones (6-10, 195) and soph. Cory Jefferson (6-10, 210) adds length off the bench. Junior G Pierre Jackson (13.5ppg) will be key. They were 0-4 vs.
Missouri and Kansas this year.

#10 Xavier (23-12) is back in the Sweet 16. They were fortunate to avoid Duke in the second round but had a nice four-point win over Notre Dame to open the tournament. They beat Lehigh 75-70 and needed a big run late in the first half to get control of that game. Xavier usually relies on guard play and they have a good one in senior Tu Holloway (6-0, 190, 17.4ppg, 4.9apg). Holloway lit up Notre Dame for 25 points including the go-ahead layup. Mark Lyons (6-1, 188, 15ppg) is an aggressive, attacking two-guard who shoots 39% from the threepoint line. Up front, senior Kenny Frease (7-0, 275) is a massive player who averages 9.9ppg and 6.2rpg. Xavier, who shoots 46% from the floor and allows opponents to shoot just 40% and 31% from beyond the arc. This should be a great matchup between a very athletic Baylor team and a gutsy Xavier team with really good guard play. Frease is a monster and Baylor could have issues with him inside but he may also have issues defending Perry Jones III and his agility.

In the Midwest region from St. Louis, #1 North Carolina (31-5) takes on #13 Ohio University (29-7) on Friday. North Carolina is one of the top teams in the nation, averaging 82ppg and shooting 46% from the field. The big key for the Heels is the health of point guard Kendall Marshall (6-4, 195), who fractured his right wrist in the Heels victory over Creighton (58-57). The lefty also had surgery on Monday but is listed as questionable for Friday. Marshall averages 8.1ppg and 9.8apg, while shooting 47% from the floor. They really need his passing to get to the Final Four. He also plays 33 minutes per game and with backup PG Dexter Strickland out with an injury, UNC has very few options at the point. F John Henson (6-11, 220, 13.8ppg, 10.1rpg, 3bpg) who is their key defender, is already playing with a sprained wrist. Even with a less than 100% Henson, the Heels have the best frontcourt in the nation. Soph. Harrison Barnes (6-8, 215, 17.3ppg, 5.2rpg) and senior Tyler Zeller (7-0, 250, 16.4ppg, 9.4rpg) will be tough for Ohio to handle but if they advance, Kansas and NC State won’t be intimidated. Another key the play of Reggie Bullock, a 38% three-point shooter who can get hot. James McAdoo (6-9, 220, 5.8ppg) is the team’s best player off the bench.

Ohio U. averages 70ppg and allows just 62.4ppg while shooting just 43% from the floor. They are a very good rebounding team despite their lack of great size, leading the MAC with 12.7 offensive rebounds per game. They will have to continue that against a great rebounding team in UNC. Ohio upset Michigan in the first round by five and beat USF, 62-56 to reach the Sweet 16. This is a balanced team with five players averaging nine points a game or more. Junior G D.J. Cooper (5-11, 165, 14.9ppg, 5.7apg) runs the show and is a very strong defender. He shoot just 36% but can hit the big shot. Up front, they lack great size but are very agile. Junior Ivo Baltic (6-8, 215, 8.9ppg, 5rpg) is tied for the team lead in rebounds. Junior Reggie Keely (6-8, 265, 9.1ppg, 5rpg) does provide the size off the bench and will need to play a lot in this game. They only chance that the Bobcats have in this one is to get hot from the outside (34% 3pt) and to pressure Marshall or any other guard that will be forced to play if Marshall can’t play. Ohio U. also averages 9.5 steals per game so that has to be a big concern for North Carolina head coach Roy Williams. The other game in St. Louis features, #11 NC State (24-12) takes on #2 Kansas (29-6) on Friday. Some teams are talented but it takes them an entire year to click NC State is that team that has peaked at the right time. The average 73.3ppg and allow 67.8ppg, while shooting 46% from the field. NC State has a budding star in PG Lorenzo Brown (6-5, 186, 12.8ppg, 6.4apg), a two-guard who moved to the point. NC State did win four straight before losing by 2 to UNC in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament. But that bit of rest must have helped as they knocked out San Diego State, 79-65 in the first round and edged Georgetown by 3 to get to the Sweet 16. Soph. C.J. Leslie (6-8, 209, 14.6ppg, 7.4rpg, 1.6bpg) is a tough cover for any power forward because of his great speed and athletic ability. He shoots 53% from the floor but is not much of a perimeter threat. They do have a perimeter threat in junior Scott Wood (6-6, 175, 12.4ppg, 42% 3pt) who basically does very little outside of shooting the three-ball. Up front, Richard Howell (6-8, 250, 11ppg, 9.1rpg) had 22 points in the opener. Junior DeShawn Painter (6-9, 231, 6.3ppg, 4.3rpg) provides size off the bench. #2 Kansas (27-6) has a lot of firepower, averaging 74.4ppg and allowing just 61.5ppg. They shoot 48% from the floor and allow teams to shoot just 38%. While the beat Detroit by 15 in the opener, they had to come back to beat Purdue by 3, after being down by 13. They actually turned to a zone defense to help cool down Purdue and star forward Robbie Hummel. They have a star in Thomas Robinson (6-10, 237, 17.7ppg, 11.8ppg) but they lack the superstar wing of the past. Senior G Tyshawn Taylor (6-3, 185, 16.9ppg, 4.7apg) runs the team while junior C Jeff Withey (7-0, 235, 9.1ppg, 6.2rpg, 3.3bpg) is the key to the team’s success. Junior guard Elijah Johnson (6-4, 195, 10ppg, 3.7apg, 33.3% 3pt) is an inconsistent 3-point shooter but gives the team another ballhandler. The bench isn’t quite as deep as it’s been in the past. Senior Conner Teahan (6-6, 212) adds 5.9ppg and shoots 35% from beyond the arc.

In the East, #1 Syracuse (33-2) takes on #4 Wisconsin (26-9) from Boston on Thursday. Syracuse averages 74.5ppg and allows just 60.5ppg. They shoot 47% from the floor and allows just 31% from the three-point line. Their trademark 2-3 zone is aggressive but one major concern for head coach Jim Boeheim is their defensive rebounding. That concern grew when they lost sophomore Fab Melo (7-0, 255, 7.7ppg, 5.8rpg, 87 blocks) right before the tournament started. Without him, Cuse struggled to beat UNCAshville, by 7 (they were down 34-30 at the half) and got by a troubled Kansas State team by 16. This a very talented Syracuse team, led by senior Kris Joseph (6-7, 215, 13.7ppg, 5rpg). This team is at their best when they get out on transition. Senior PG Scoop Jardine (6-2, 195, 8.6ppg, 4.9apg 47% FG) doesn’t shoot much until the end of the game. He sets the tone while soph. guard Dion Waiters (6-4, 215, 12.7ppg, 36%3pt), who had 18 points in the opener, may be the nation’s top reserve. With Melo out, freshman Rakeem Christmas (6-9, 228, 2.7ppg, 3rpg,, 11.4mpg) had to step up and play bigger minutes. He scored 14pts and grabbed 18 rebounds with 5 blocks in the first two games.

Wisconsin (24-9) has quietly been impressive, crushing Montana, 73-49 in the opener and getting by Vanderbilt by 3 to get to the Sweet 16. Wisconsin avenges just 64ppg, while allowing 53ppg. Senior PG Jordan Taylor (6-1, 195, 14.7ppg, 4apg) runs the show. He amazingly had just 48 turnovers in the regular season to 126 assists. Up front, junior Jared Berggren (6-10, 235, 10.3ppg, 5rpg, 1.7bpg, 36% 3pt) can shoot it from deep and defends well. The Badgers shoot 36% from three-point range and will need to score from deep to beat Syracuse’s zone. Their best three-point shooter is soph. Josh Gasser (6-3, 190), who averages 7.7ppg and shoots 46% from beyond the arc. Junior Ryan Evans (6-6, 210) plays bigger than his size and leads the team in rebounds with 6.8 per game and is second in scoring with 11.1ppg. This should be a low-scoring game, which would favor the Badgers.

The other game from Boston features #6 Cincinnati (26-10) against #2 Ohio State (29-7). Cincinnati is a strong defensive-minded team that allows just 61ppg but shoots only 42% from the floor. Yet they got to the Sweet 16 by beating Texas by 6 and Florida State by 6 due to some clutch shooting. solid defense and very physical play. Junior Cashmere Wright (6-0, 175, 10.7ppg, 4.6apg) sets the tone at the point. Senior guard Dion Dixon (6-3, 195, 37% FG) is not a great shooter but is a super athlete. Up front, big
senior Yancey Gates (6-9, 260, 12.4ppg, 9.1rpg) is a talented rebounder who can score inside. They basically play a four-guard lineup with soph. Sean Kilpatrick (6-4, 215, 14.3ppg) as their most talented shooter. This is a team that likes to spread the floor and shoot threes (34%). He is one of the few big bodies who can match up with Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger (6-9, 265). Ohio State is one of the most complete teams in the nation. They average 75ppg and shoot 48% from the floor. They allow just 59.2ppg and 33% from beyond the arc. They beat Loyola-Md by 19 in the opener and then went on a late run to knock out Gonzaga, 73-66. However, depth is not great, especially in the backcourt. Sullinger (6-9, 265, 17.4ppg, 9.1rpg, 53%, 44.4% 3pt) has great hands and requires double-teams for most opponents (but not Cincy) if Gates is in). He has a very nice touch when he’s facing the basket. Senior wing William Buford (6-6, 220, 14.7ppg, 35% 3pt) is the key. Point guard Aaron Craft (6-2, 190, 8.8ppg, 4.7apg, 52% FG) runs the show and is a premier defender. Soph. Deshaun Thomas (6-7, 225, 15.9ppg, 5.3rpg, 35% 3pt) is the perfect compliment to Sullinger, as he can go inside or out. This game for Ohio promises to be a brutal one.

Atssportsline.com

Sweet 16 Action Report
By Covers.com

Bettors are siding with the North Carolina State Wolfpack over Kansas by a 2-to-1 margin, though the money differential is not as significant, Coast Hotels sportsbook director Bob Scucci told Covers.com.

Scucci, who has kept the line at 8, said the Pack's strong performance in the ACC and NCAA tournaments is building a big bandwagon.

"Going into the first round against San Diego State, they were basically a pick-em, and the line closed at 2.5 on NC State," he said. "They've been real good to the betting public, and people are going to ride them as far as they can. They're playing some of the best teams in the country and beating 'em, and now they're getting eight points. People figure that's a live dog."

NC State is the only underdog in Friday's Sweet 16 games that's drawn more action than the favorite at Club Cal Neva, sportsbook director Chris Andrews said.

Here are the other betting developments on Friday's games.

Xavier Musketeers vs. Baylor Bears Open: 140 Move: 142

Sharp action forced the move on the total, while the spread has stayed at 6. Baylor is bigger, more athletic and healthier, as two key Musketeers are dealing with injuries. Third-leading scorer Dez Wells has a sprained big toe, and senior forward Andre Walker missed Thursday's practice with migraines.

But Xavier's NCAA Tournament pedigree and Baylor's perceived inconsistency are keeping this line where it is.

"Xavier makes the Sweet 16 every year," Andrews said of the Musketeers, who have made it this far in four of the last five years. "That's the most underrated program in the world."

Ohio Bobcats vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Open: -10.5 Move: -11, back to -10.5

"We got a lot of money on North Carolina, then we went to 11, and it's bounced back and forth," Scucci said. "The public money is on North Carolina. The sharp guys will take plus 11 whenever we go there."

Oddsmakers said the line assumes Tar Heels point guard Kendall Marshall won't play, or be ineffective if he does.

The total has stayed steady at 143 at most books, with a few offering 142.5.

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Kentucky Wildcats Open: -8.5 Move: -9

"All the money's on Kentucky, which is kind of expected," said Scucci, who opened this line at 8.5 and moved to 9. "It's not a significant move, but a public move."

Andrews, who also moved a half-point to 9, said he's holding a little more money on the favorite. "Business as usual -- nothing outrageous," he said.

A few offshore books had to move a full point, from 8 to 9.

North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Kansas Jayhawks Open: 141.5 Move: 143 Line History

Again, sharp action prompted the move on the total. These teams are loaded with offensive talent, and a fast pace is expected.

The over is 8-3 in NC State's last 11 games, but 5-16 in Kansas' last 21 NCAA Tournament games.