Sweet 16 Betting News and Notes

Sweet Sixteen Team by Team Cheat Sheet

Sweet 16's Invaluable Players
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Maryland’s Melo Trimble fell to the ground like he’d been hit with the force of Wladimir Klitschko’s stiffest jab. It wasn’t Dr. Steelhammer, but rather 6-9, 235-pound Nathan Adrian who delivered the blow, a devastating shoulder-led body check that should’ve been whistled an offensive foul but wasn’t because college refs, as you’ve seen, are the worst.

Trimble wasn’t able to return, diagnosed with a head injury. He spent the rest of Sunday evening’s NCAA Tournament game on the bench, head tucked inside his jersey in despair. The Mountaineers went on to a 69-59 victory, marching on to the Sweet 16.

Hope you were able to get an in-game play in once it was determined he wouldn’t be back, since the Terps had no chance of dealing with West Virginia’s pressure without him. Despite being just a freshman, Trimble carved out a place as one of college basketball’s most invaluable pieces. His unflappable demeanor, deft passing and feathery shooting touch had carried Maryand to a second-place finish in the Big Ten when the preseason media poll picked them to finish 10th in their first season in the conference.

Tenth? They were in the country's top 10 most of the season. Coaches voted Trimble First Team All-Big Ten. He was that good. The Terps were predictably finished without their best player.

The remaining 16 teams all have a catalyst they can’t be without either. Here’s a ranking of them, so if one lands in foul trouble or winds up flat on his back via crippling moving screen, you can move in and take advantage.

16. Xavier- Matt Stainbrook: The Musketeers run most of their offense through their leading scorer and rebounder. At 6-10 and over 260 pounds, he’s an imposing presence who commands a double-team against smaller defenders. He’ll be Xavier’s backbone against Arizona.

15. Oklahoma- Buddy Hield: He’s shot 10-for-29 in this tournament, but is still the most dynamic athlete the Sooners throw out there. Right now, he’s settling for far too many jumpers and not taking advantage of his physical gifts. That must change against Sparty.

14. Michigan State- Denzel Valentine: Although you can make a great case for Branden Dawson and Travis Trice, Valentine is a unique player who seemingly makes everything run more smoothly as the Spartans best passer. Because he’s 6-5 and built solidly, he’s a walking matchup problem.

13. Gonzaga- Kyle Wiltjer: The Kentucky transfer is 18-for-24 so far in these NCAAs, including 6-for-9 from 3-point range. Being 6-10 doesn’t hurt either, since he’s likely to have to do some banging against UCLA’s bigs. Despite many other candidates, he’s been unquestionably the best of the Zags all season.

12. Wichita State- Fred Van Vleet: His regular-season numbers were underwhelming given the expectations, but as expected, one of the country’s top floor generals has turned his game up 10 notches. He dominated Kansas with 17-6-6 after dropping 27 points on Indiana. This is who we expected to see.

11. Arizona- T.J. McConnell: Stanley Johnson is the top-five pick and there are other standouts like Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Brandon Ashley, but this particular bunch of ‘Cats can’t function without McConnell at the controls. The veteran fifth-year senior put Arizona on his back when Ohio State threatened most, leaving the court for all of one minute. His 19 points were the second-most he’s scored this season. Every one of them were necessary, which he knew.

10. N.C. State- Trevor Lacey: Lightning-quick point guard Kat Barber and powerful bigs Abdul-Malik Abu and Beejay Anya have been critical x-factors, but the Wolfpack really thrive when their Alabama transfer has it going. He’s the main 3-point threat, but far from just a shooter, coming up with nine boards against LSU and dishing out four assists in each NCAA win.

9. Louisville- Terry Rozier: Prized power forward Montrezl Harrell is 1B, but it’s Rozier who has to key the press, run the offense and control the pace, not to mention likely being the primary scorer as he was against Northern Iowa. Most didn’t expect the Cardinals to handle UNI as easily as they did, which was only accomplished due to Rozier’s masterful 25-point, 5-rebound, 7-assist performance.

8. Kentucky- Willie Cauley-Stein: The reason he’s so low on this list is because of the embarrassment of riches the ‘Cats have inside, but he’s still the best of the bunch. Although freshman Karl-Anthony Towns is a beast in post and Kentucky’s top offensive player, making history hinges on defense, which no one delivers quite like Cauley-Stein. He’s second to Towns in blocks, but his mobility makes him the ideal choice to show against opposing guards, using his length to bog down offenses. UK isn’t quite as stifling when he sits.

7. West Virginia- Devin Williams: The Mountaineers have proven they can compete without senior guards Juwan Staten, so Williams is by far the guy they can’t be without most. That could be an issue, since the 6-9, 255-pound sophomore is foul-prone. He’s critical to surviving against Kentucky’s trees and has stepped up in the postseason, averaging 18.3 points and 9.8 rebounds when you combine the Big 12 and NCAA Tourneys.

6. UCLA- Bryce Alford: Kevon Looney and Norman Powell are more talented, but the Bruins are here because of the coach’s son. Not only is Alford running the show at the point, he’s shooting 12-for-16 (75 percent) from 3-point range, including the controversial goaltending-aided one. Averaging 24.5 through two games, staying up on Alford is going to be a key part of Gonzaga’s game plan, leaving more room for other Bruins to operate.

5. Notre Dame- Jerian Grant: There’s nothing on the floor he doesn’t do for the Fighting Irish. While Pat Connaughton is similarly essential, Grant is averaging 16.5 points, four rebounds and five assists, numbers right in line with his season averages. He’s the heartbeat for Mike Brey’s squad.

4. Utah- Jakob Poeltl: The Austrian 7-footer will tangle with Duke’s Jahlil Okafor and has been a force in the post. Defensively, he’s been the anchor, while also finishing 27 of his last 35 field goal attempts, mostly on dunks and putbacks. Don’t let that fool you. He’s skilled.

3. Wisconsin- Frank Kaminsky: The Badgers derive their confidence from the likely National Player of the Year. He’s such a difficult matchup for opposing bigs that he makes an offense you think would be stagnant dynamic. The Badgers are averaging 79 points per game in these NCAAs thanks to Kaminsky being 16-for-27 from the floor, averaging 23.5 points and 9.5 boards per game. Given North Carolina’s size, he’ll need to be great for Wisconsin to avoid the upset.

2. Duke- Jahlil Okafor: The likely No. 1 pick in the NBA draft takes the Blue Devils from good to great. He’s risen to the occasion in the postseason, averaging 25 points on 34-for-45 shooting over the last three games. Because of how unstoppable he’s been in the post, Duke has yet to be challenged.

1. North Carolina- Marcus Paige: Not only would the Tar Heels have lost to Arkansas had he not gotten it together offensively, they would have done so in embarrassing fashion. Paige took over with 13 of UNC's 17 points during a stretch where they pulled away from a Razorbacks team that had the pace where they wanted it as Paige’s teammates carelessly threw the ball all over the place. He took control, settled things down and is the brains of Roy Williams’ operation. The Tar Heels have no shot against Wisconsin unless the top point guard in the country is right.

Sweet 16 Streaks, Tips, Notes
By Sportspic.com

The NCAA College Basketball March Madness continues March 26, 2015 with Sweet Sixteen action. Below you are betting nuggets which hopefully helps when making your selections. As always best of luck, but above all enjoy the games.

Sweet Sixteen: All stats from 2002-03 season unless noted

Favorites in the Sweet Sixteen have not been the best choice as they're 39-46-3 ATS since 2002-03.
-3.5 or less Favorite 12-13-1 ATS
-4.5 to -6.5 Favorite 12-20-2 ATS
-7 to -9.5 Favorite 11-7 ATS
Double Digit Chalk 4-6 ATS

#1 vs #5: Top seed has owned this matchup posting an 11-3 SU record. Against the betting line #1's are just 5-8-1 ATS, 3-7 ATS since 2004-05. The O/U since 2002-03 is 6-7-1

#1 Kentucky vs #5 West Virginia
Kentucky 6-0 (5-1 ATS) in Sweet Sixteen
Kentucky 2-1 ATS as #1 seed in S16
West Virginia 2-2 (3-1 ATS)

#1 Duke vs #5 Utah
Duke 3-5 SU/ATS
Duke 2-3 SU/ATS as #1 seed
Utah 0-1 SU/ATS

#1 vs #4: The number one seed in this matchup is 11-7 SU but has also struggled against the number at 7-11 ATS including 3-5 ATS last three years. O/U is 8-10

#1 Wisconsin vs #4 North Carolina
Wisconsin 2-4 (4-2 ATS)
Wisconsin 1-0 SU/ATS as #2 seed
North Carolina 6-0 (4-2 ATS)

#2 vs #6: #2 has won 8 of the past 9 Sweet Sixteen matchups between these seeds with a vig losing 4-4-1 mark at the betting window. O/U is 5-4

#2 Arizona vs #6 Xavier
Arizona 4-2 SU/ATS
Xavier 2-3 (4-0-1 ATS)

#2 vs #11: All #2 in this seed matchup. 4-0 SU, 2-1-1 ATS with the 'Under' a strong 3-1

#2 Gonzaga vs #11 UCLA
Gonzaga 0-2 (1-1 ATS)
Gonzaga lost vs UCLA in '06 S16
UCLA 3-1 (1-3 ATS)

#3 vs #7: Flip a coin when #3 faces a #7 as it's a dead even 3-3 SU/ATS. The 'Over' as a 4-2 edge

#3 Oklahoma vs #7 Michigan State
Oklahoma 2-0 SU/ATS
Michigan State 5-3 (4-4 ATS)

#3 Notre Dame vs #7 Wichita State
Notre Dame N/A
Wichita State 1-1 SU/ATS

#4 vs #8: Only two matchups the past twelve NCAA Tourney's with the #8 seed winning and covering both. #8 Butler beat #5 Wisky in 2011 and #8 Kentucky defeated/covered vs #4 Louisville last year.

#4 Louisville vs #8 NC State
Louisville 5-1 (4-2 ATS)
Louisville 2-1 SU/ATS as #4 seed
N.C. State 0-2 (1-1 ATS)

Sweet 16 Betting Trends
By Mark Presley
Oddsshark.com

The underdogs have gone 21-10-1 ATS since 2011 in the Sweet Sixteen as we take a look at the betting trends for the regional semifinals of the 2015 NCAA Tournament, which take place on Thursday and Friday this week.

And the biggest underdog in the Sweet Sixteen this year is West Virginia, who sat as 13-point dogs against top-seeded Kentucky early in the week. The Mountaineers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games and 4-1 ATS in the Sweet Sixteen, while the Wildcats enter Thursday's matchup on a run of 8-2-1 ATS in their past 11 games as double-digit favorites.

Kentucky is also 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in the Sweet Sixteen since 1996.

Elsewhere, Duke is 6-1 ATS in its past seven games heading into its Sweet Sixteen matchup with No. 5 Utah this week, with the top-seeded Blue Devils also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games against No 5 seeds since 1996.

The UNDER has gone 15-2-1 in the last 18 games in which Utah was an underdog; early in the week they sat at +5 against Duke.

And North Carolina will be up against another top seed, Wisconsin, when it hits the floor in the Sweet Sixteen this week, with the No. 4 Tar Heels 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last nine Sweet Sixteen contests since 1996.

North Carolina, however, is 0-5 both SU and ATS in its last five games as an underdog at the NCAA Tournament, with Wisconsin set as a 5.5-point favorite early in the week.

March Madness: Sweet 16 Trends List

Underdogs are 21-10-1 ATS since 2011 in the Sweet 16
Last year the OVER went 6-2 (18-14 since 2011)
Higher seeds are 16-8 SU the past three seasons

Wichita State (7) vs Notre Dame (3)
WSU lost just twice since Christmas Day
WSU 14-3 ATS since 2010 as fave of 1-3 points
Notre Dame 6-2 ATS past eight as underdogs
Notre Dame 0-8 ATS past eight Madness games
WSU 7-2 ATS past nine Madness games
Past two 3 vs 7 matchups won by 7s (UConn 2014, Florida 2012)

North Carolina (4) vs Wisconsin (1)
4 seeds won 3 of past 5 matchups vs top seeds (but 1s are 22-8 SU since 1996)
Badgers 0-2 SU, 2-0 ATS vs UNC since 2001
Badgers 5-2 ATS in Sweet 16 since 2000
North Carolina is 9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS in Sweet 16 since 1996
UNC 0-5 SU and ATS as Madness underdog since 2000

West Virginia (5) vs Kentucky (1)
5 seeds just 6-19 SU vs top seeds since 1996, but 2-1 past three times
West Virginia beat top-seeded Kentucky in 2010
West Virginia 7-2 ATS past nine games, 4-1 ATS in Sweet 16 round
West Virginia just fourth time since 2004 as underdog of 13 or more
Kentucky 8-2-1 ATS past 11 as double-digit favorite
Kentucky is 10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS in Sweet 16 since 1996
West Virginia 9-2 ATS as Madness underdog

Xavier (6) vs Arizona (2)
2 seed 14-2 SU vs 6 seeds, but 6s are 5-2 ATS past seven
Xavier 20-3-1 ATS past 24 Madness games
Xavier 5-0 ATS in Sweet 16
Arizona is 9-1-1 favoring the OVER in Sweet 16 since 1996
Xavier 12-1 ATS as Madness underdog since 2003
Biggest spread facing Xavier since Feb. 2005
Arizona 11-3 ATS past 14 as double-digit favorite

UCLA (11) vs Gonzaga (2)
2 seeds 7-0 SU, 4-2-1 ATS vs 11 seeds since 1996
UCLA 12-3 ATS past 15 games overall
UCLA played 11 straight UNDERs as underdog
UCLA covered six in a row as underdog
Gonzaga lost four straight Sweet 16 games
Gonzaga 5-11 ATS as Madness favorite since 2000
2 seeds 8-1 SU past nine games in Sweet 16

NC State (8) vs Louisville (4)
NC State 7-2-1 ATS past 10 games as underdog
8 seeds won and covered vs 4 seeds every time since 2000 (4-0)
Louisville had covered six straight Sweet 16 games before failing past two tries (6-2 ATS)
UNDER is 7-0 past seven times Louisville favored by 1-3 points

Utah (5) vs Duke (1)
5 seeds just 6-19 SU vs top seeds since 1996, but 2-1 past three times
Duke 1-5-1 ATS (3-4 SU) vs 5 seeds since 1996
Duke just 3-6 SU past nine trips to Sweet 16
UNDER is 15-2-1 past 18 times Utah was underdog since 2013
Duke riding 6-1 ATS streak overall

Michigan State (7) vs Oklahoma (3)
Past two 3 vs 7 matchups won by 7s (UConn 2014, Florida 2012)
MSU played 9 of 12 UNDERs in Sweet 16 since 1996
Oklahoma perfect 4-0 ATS in Sweet 16 since 1996
Oklahoma 1-5 ATS past six games overall as underdog

Round of Sixteen Preview
By Dave Essler

Notre Dame: As I said in my earlier write ups - the Irish seem to be built for the long haul. They're 16-4 SU on two days rest or less. However, winning and covering are two different things - and what concerns me most is that their non-conference schedule was horrible - and most of the ACC was way off this year - so aside from a few games, were they REALLY tested? Their bench is not very deep and they don't have the length to compete with certain teams. They seem to handle the athletic/fluid teams but struggled with team like Syracuse, Pitt, and UVA - who will grind like the Bearcats. And Butler. Off the emotional "State of Indiana" win - it'll be interesting to see how the react. I do think they match up well with Witchita State.

Arizona: The premium may be worth paying on Arizona. They were 6-0 SU in neutral site games, and 4-2 ATS. Perhaps the most impressive thing they did - KNOWING they were bigger and bigger favorites as the season wore on - was go 16-5 ATS in Conference play. They were also 6-2 ATS on one days' rest - but just like many other huge public teams, they were a huge UNDER team in neutral site games (1-5). With all the talk about Stanley Johnson people forget they are big and have the third ranked defense (efficiency) in the nation. They'll only struggle against huge teams that play defense, and that's certainly not Ohio State - especially the part about defense. They won their game against Ohio State with Johnson shooting 1-12, and as a team shooting 36% from inside. They just have too many ways to win - but can they cover the number. I think they can.

UCLA: I said all along in various communications that UCLA might not "deserve" to be there but they are a dangerous and tough "out". Teams in that situation play with a chip on their shoulder, and we did think the style they play could give SMU problems. The only problem I had was not betting on them. Twice. They played Gonzaga this season and won in LA on the strength of a torrid start that the Bruins just couldn't recover from. They shot 65% and made almost half their three's - yet allowed UCLA 74 points. If the Bruins get any kind of inside play from Parker and/or Looney they could give Gonzaga a closer game than people think, simply because UCLA is a better team NOW and it'd be hard to duplicate (for the Zags) that offensive performance.

Xavier: We actually thought Ole Miss would beat them, knowing that Xavier has had issues with team that fit Ole Miss' profile. That didn't happen as perhaps Ole Miss was just weary after running with BYU two days earlier. This team has always been an enigma to me - and since Christmas never won (or lost) more than two games in a row, unless you count the season ending win and the two Conference Tournament wins. They've got length, they rebound, and they shoot free throws well, so I suppose it really shouldn't be a surprise. My issue with them this time around is that they let Georgia State shoot 62% from inside the three point line, so I really have to question what Arizona might do, unless the Musketeers come up with the game of their life. I think they've been the benefactor of the seeding as well as not having to play Baylor.

Utah: The Utes are only 2-3 (ATS and SU) on one days' rest - and a couple of those games came in the last week-plus of the regular season, so perhaps they needed the rest. On three or more days' rest they are an astounding 16-4 ATS. Against Duke it will be a classic battle of who controls the pace, since Utah wants to walk (one of the slowest and methodical teams in the nation) and of course Duke wants to run, and run some more. It's interesting that their closer games and/or losses were in fact to running teams (primarily) and Duke had closer games/losses against teams that were able to slow them down. Although my instinct says to take Duke, Utah's experience and getting to the line more may be the difference-maker, at least with +5 points.

NC State: A gutsy and fortunate win for them against LSU and then they hold off Villanova. I thought 'Nova's primarily one-dimensional offense would fail them sooner or later. Now they get Louisville, another ACC team, who they beat in Louisville on Valentine's day. The key is that games' effect here, I think. Is it a confidence builder for the Wolfpack or is it just more motivation for the Cardinals. I've not been a fan of Gottfried in big games, and although Pitino is one of the best, I've watched L'ville not be able to keep their composure too many times this season, and actually thought they might lose to Northern Iowa for that very reason. NC State has already beaten better teams than the Cardinals, but I lean L'ville here. In their last meeting Rozier fouled out and the Wolfpack shot 47% inside. I don't think either of those happen this time around.

Kentucky: Rather than look for reasons to TAKE the Wildcats - let's look for reasons not to. It's easier. On three-plus days rest they've played 17 games and of course won them all, but they're barely above .500 in those games. Of course we're paying a premium, and people will instinctively assume that West Virginia won't turn them over like the did to the Terps, forcing 23 turnovers. Jessica's Wildcats only committed seven turnovers against a very good Bearcat defense, so perhaps they're more than ready for Huggins.

Michigan State: Yes, people love Izzo and the Spartans this time of year, and in our "Round of 32" thread we had them winning against UVA. It does seem like the early sharp money is on Oklahoma as of now, but logic dictates that if you give Izzo four or five days to prepare a team, it might be tough not to take them. We just keep wondering when their lack of getting to the line and lack of shooting well from it is going to bite them, and if history is any indicator (it is) then it will. They've beaten a couple of slower teams in UGA and UVA - now they get the up tempo Sooners. Minnesota and Indiana are about the only two Big Ten teams that play even close to that pace - so much like the Utah game this could be a battle of who controls the speed of the game. The Tournament games tend to favor the slower teams (remember when Butler almost beat Duke) because of television, timeouts, and other things that tend to slow momentum.

West Virginia: Buffalo was a trendy team and I could have made a case for them, but it appears that the simple matter of WVU playing in the Big-12 was just too much of a step-up in class. Then West Virginia was they trendy play over the Terps, and as I said forced Maryland into tons of turnovers. I think the problem the Terps may have had is that they were primarily a two-man team. Kentucky is not. West Virginia is such an enigma because they can play some bad-ass pressure defense but have real trouble scoring, and if team break their press, they're just not a great half-court team. Three losses to Baylor and two to Iowa State - teams that are just completely different styles, make them tough to handicap - at least for me. But, they are a great offensive rebounding team and are coached well. They'll do what they do and win or lose with it, so you know what you're going to get. To keep this game close they'll need to hit a bunch of those 35' three pointers, and I think they might. I like the over in this game, actually.

Oklahoma: The one thing that sticks out to me is that the teams that have beaten the Sooners in the last month are Iowa State and Iowa State. Oklahoma has handled most of the slow-down teams quite well, but have they been tested against Albany and a tired Dayton team? What they are going to need to do, as most team will in order to win, is rebound. The reality of the situation is that they are NOT a great rebounding team and the Spartans are. With that in mind and knowing that Michigan State is just in a better position to control the tempo, I lean to the un-cool Spartans and think that total may a bit high - barring late free throws.

Witchita State: For them, they appear to be somewhat under-the-radar this season, at least until the beat Kansas. Now people are taking them to the window a little more seriously. Maybe too much so.They don't have Early, obviously, but they have all four starters back from a team that was undefeated last season until Kentucky beat them in the second round. That really was kind of a BS draw for them - and this one doesn't appear to be much better. When they struggle it's typically to the ugly teams, and the Irish can be ugly. How both teams respond after winning big "rivalry" games is as much of a contributor as the matchup, although I do think the Shockers may be in trouble here.

Louisville: Obviously they've got the coach that can take them there, and the further these things go on the more that matters. Losing early in the ACC Tournament may have been a blessing in disguise, as it often is. They get eight days' rest before they have to play, and that's where Pitino comes in. Very difficult to fade Louisville in those situations. Last year they were knocked out by Kentucky in a game where they did most things right except rebound. So what does Pitino do - get bigger. They've got Onuako inside and two huge Freshman coming of the bench - something they didn't have last year. With only one days' rest this season they've played exactly two games, winning but failing to cover both of them.On long rest they're only 6-10 ATS. If the Freshman have grown and play better interior defense than they did in the regular season meeting, Louisville goes to the Elite 8.

Wisconsin: The Badgers could well be under valued since people only remember what they saw last, and that was that they couldn't really put away Oregon. That was, to me, all about it being a tough matchup for them since Oregon was able to shoot over them and play great perimeter defense. The Tar Heels may play the pace that the Ducks do, which is fast, but their composition is entirely different and it doesn't match up with the Badgers well, IMO. The Heels don't shoot a lot of three's and I don't see them being able to stay inside all night. Whether Meeks is in or out, they'll need SOMEONE to make some jump shots to open up the middle, otherwise the Badgers win this game.

Duke: As I said earlier, this one is about controlling the flow probably more than most of the other games. Duke was 15-1 SU on 3+ days' rest, but a pedestrian 7-9 ATS. Duke getting knocked out of the ACC Tournament early is probably a blessing, giving them tons of time to prepare. Utah is a better version of the Aztecs, IMO, as a team that can play some sick defense but also can score. I expect Coach K to simply make someone other than Delon Wright beat them, and it's probably going to come down to Poeltl and whether he can stay in the game (out of foul trouble). When Utah lost to Arizona he fouled out, and the Hoyas were able to get four on him and limit his minutes to only 18. If Duke does that the Blue Devils win, if they don't, they may well lose.

Gonzaga: I didn't see them throttling Iowa like they did, but that could over value them here. Could. They have not been a great ATS team on long rest, but what I did see is that they've been a great "over" team. Anyhow, they beat the Bruins earlier as we know. It's so tough to fade them after what they did, but that's when you almost have to. UCLA has NOTHING to lose whatsoever, and this game is in Houston so they may lose SOME of the homecourt advantage they enjoyed in Seattle. I would have to take the points and perhaps even a flyer that UCLA wins this game, but because neither team turns it over and neither team create many on defense, I do think this does go over the number.

North Carolina: A lot of people's trendy pick to do well - but not mine. They're still too young and IMO that game against Notre Dame showed a couple of flaws. First, they may not be built for the grind of consecutive games and travel, and secondly, they'll beat the teams that play scrappy defense but have trouble scoring (UVA and L'ville, for example). This game with the Badgers will be seven games in fifteen days, and a trip to Los Angeles. It may be too much to overcome. They ARE 9-2 SU (8-3 ATS) in neutral site games this season, so if you made me I can see them hanging for the 1H but fading late.

Bracket Analysis - Sweet 16
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

The field of 68 schools for the 2015 NCAA Tournament has been reduced to 16. There are no major surprises with 13 teams remaining from Power Five leagues. The other three -- Gonzaga, Wichita State and Xavier -- haven't been able to claim Cinderella status for some time now.

Hell, the lowest remaining seed is No. 11 UCLA, which has won more national titles (11) than any other school in Tournament history. The Bruins, who were fortunate to rally past SMU in the opening round, blitzed UAB to advance to the South Region semifinals in Houston. They'll face Gonzaga, which is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2009.

The No. 1 overall seed, Kentucky, remains alive and unbeaten. In its way for the Midwest Region semifinal in Cleveland, UK finds a West Virginia team that beat it in the 2010 East Region finals at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse.

Bob Huggins must be thinking, 'where is Joe Mazulla when I need him?' The back-up point guard moved into a starting role and produced a career-best 17 points to lead the Mountaineers past the 'Cats (73-66), who were led by John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Eric Bledsoe.

John Calipari's team took out Hampton (79-56) and Cincinnati (64-51), but it failed to cover the spread in both spots. As of Tuesday morning, most books had UK installed as a 13-point 'chalk' with a total of 136.5 points.

WVU took the cash in both outings this past weekend, beating Buffalo 68-62 as a 4.5-point favorite before Sunday's 69-59 win over Maryland as a 1.5-point 'chalk.' After missing four straight games with a foot injury, Juwan Staten (14.1 points per game, 4.8 APG) led his team past the Bulls with 15 points and seven assists.

Gary Browne, who had missed three consecutive games prior to the Tournament, had 14 points and five steals against the Terrapins. Devin Williams had a double-double with 16 points and 10 rebounds for the Mountaineers.

WVU has been an underdog 10 times this year, going 5-5 ATS with four outright victories. This will be the first double-digit 'dog situation for Huggins's squad. The largest previous 'dog spot came at Kansas when the Mountaineers lost 76-69 in overtime as nine-point puppies.

The other game in Cleveland will pit third-seeded Notre Dame vs. seventh-seeded Wichita State. Just hours after Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey's mother passed away on Saturday morning, the Irish beat Butler 67-64 in OT. However, the Bulldogs covered the number as 3.5-point underdogs.

Steve Vasturia led Notre Dame with 20 points and six rebounds, while Jerian Grant finished with 16 points, five rebounds and five assists.

Wichita St. trailed Indiana for most of the first 30 minutes in the first round, only to use a 15-3 surge to move in front of the Hoosiers. The Shockers held off a late IU rally to prevail by an 81-76 count thanks to 27 points from Fred VanVleet. Rob Baker added 15 points, five rebounds and five steals.

Gregg Marshall's team finally got the matchup it had been wanting for years in the Round of 32. Kansas refuses to play Wichita St. in the regular season, but the Jayhawks had no choice on Sunday afternoon in Omaha.

Wichita St. rallied from eight down late in the first half, scoring 13 of the last 15 points to take a 29-26 halftime lead over KU. The second half was all Shockers, who pulled away to collect a 78-65 win as one-point favorites.

Tekele Cotton scored a game-high 19 points, while VanVleet finished with 17 points, six rebounds, six assists and four steals. Baker and Evan Wessel finished with 12 points apiece, as Wessel knocked down 4-of-6 from 3-point range and pulled down nine boards.

As of Tuesday morning, most books had the Shockers favored by one point with a total of 137.5.

Most betting shops have Gonzaga as the third biggest 'chalk' this week, with the Bulldogs listed as 8.5-point favorites over UCLA. These West-coast squads will square off in Houston in the South Region semifinals.

The winner will get Duke or Utah. The Blue Devils have been tabbed as five-point favorites over the Utes.

Mike Krzyzewski's team blasted Robert Morris and San Diego St. to produce a pair of spread covers for its gambling supporters. Duke is now 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.

With just one exception, form held in the West Region. The surprise guest for the semifinals at Staples Center in Los Angeles will be Xavier. Chris Mack's team, which is the Big East's only remaining representative, will take on top-seeded Arizona.

Xavier has won five of its last six games with the only defeat coming against Villanova in the Big East Tournament finals. The Musketeers blasted Ole Miss 76-57 as two-point 'chalk' before beating Ga. St. 75-67 as six-point favorites. Jalen Reynolds had a game-high 21 points in the win over the Panthers.

Arizona advanced with wins over Texas Southern (93-72) and Ohio St. (73-58). T.J. McConnell paced the Wildcats against the Buckeyes by tallying 19 points, six rebounds, five steals and six assists compared to only one turnover. Gabe York also had 19 points thanks to five treys, while Rondae Hollis-Jefferson finished with 11 points, 10 boards and five assists.

Most book have Sean Miller's squad listed as an 11-point favorite with a total of 136.

The other West semifinal will feature Wisconsin against North Carolina. The Badgers were favored by six early Tuesday morning, while the total was 142.5.

UNC advanced with wins over Harvard and Arkansas, but Kennedy Meeks is very 'doubtful' for Thursday's showdown against the Badgers. Meeks, who averages 11.6 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, injured his knee in the 87-78 win over the Razorbacks.

Marcus Paige was the catalyst against the Hogs with 22 points, six rebounds and five steals. J.P Tokoto torched Arkansas for 13 points, five rebounds, two steals and eight assists without a turnover.

Bo Ryan's squad moved on with victories over Coastal Carolina and Oregon, but it failed to cover the spread in both outings. Sam Dekker's 17 points led the Badgers to a 72-65 triumph over the Ducks.

In my Bracket Analysis column on Selection Sunday, I suggested that Villanova would be in trouble against the North Carolina St.-LSU winner. That turned out to be true with the Wolfpack sending the Wildcats home by virtue of a 71-68 win as a 10-point underdog. Mark Gottfried's team hooked up money-line supporters with a +375 payout (risk $100 to win $375).

N.C. St. was fortunate to get to the Round of 32, overcoming a 14-point halftime deficit in a 66-65 win over LSU. The Tigers, who led by as many as 16 in the second half, missed six straight free throws to end the game and gave up the game-winning bucket from BeeJay Anya with just a fraction of a second remaining.

N.C. St. will face Louisville in a battle of ACC adversaries. The Cardinals are favored by 2.5 point with the total set at 130. The Wolfpack won outright at U of L by a 74-65 count as a 10.5-point underdog on Valentine's Day.

Rick Pitino's squad advanced with wins over UC-Irvine and No. Iowa.

The other East semifinal at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse will feature Michigan State vs. Oklahoma. The Spartans knocked off Georgia before eliminating second-seeded Virginia for the second straight season. Tom Izzo improved his career NCAA Tournament record to 44-16 (73.3%) and has the Spartans two wins away from their seven Final Four appearance on Izzo's watch.

Oklahoma is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2009. Lon Kruger has taken one of his previous teams to the Final Four, helping Florida to the 1994 national semifinals before losing to Grant Hill and Duke in Charlotte.

The Sooners beat Dayton 72-66 as five-point favorites in the Round of 32. They're two-point 'dogs against the Spartans.

UK remains the 'chalk' at Sportsbook.ag with -110 odds to win the national title. The next-shortest odds belong to Arizona (5/1), Duke (+700), Wisconsin (+750), Michigan State (10/1) and Gonzaga (15/1).

Sportsbook.ag NCAA Men's Tournament

Kentucky 10/11
Arizona 5/1
Duke 7/1
Wisconsin 15/2
Michigan State 10/1
Gonzaga 15/1
North Carolina 25/1
Notre Dame 25/1
Utah 25/1
Louisville 30/1
N.C. State 40/1
Oklahoma 40/1
Wichita State 40/1
West Virginia 5/1
Xavier 75/1
UCLA 100/1

B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets

The 'under' is 8-1-1 in UK's last 10 games, 5-0-1 in its last six.

The 'under' has cashed in four straight Duke games and six of its last seven.

Travel Note: Louisville didn't dispose of No. Iowa until nearly midnight Eastern on Sunday in Seattle, while N.C. St. polished off Villanova early Saturday night.

Mississippi State and AD Scott Stricklin hit a grand slam with Monday's announcement of Ben Howland as the SEC school's next head coach. Howland took UCLA to three consecutive Final Fours from 2006-2008, but he was fired in 2013 and has been out of work the last two seasons. Howland has wanted back into coaching bad, lobbying hard for jobs like Marquette and Oregon St. last year. The Bulldogs haven't been to the NCAA Tournament since 2009. They have only been to the Final Four once when Richard Williams led them there in 1996.

According to a CBS Sports report, Alabama is poised to make a run at Wichita St.'s Marshall with an offer north of $3 million per season. Don't expect Marshall to be interested, though, and I would think Murray St.'s Steve Prohm is the more likely successor for the job previously held by Anthony Grant.

Handicapping Sweet Sixteen
By Scott Spreitzer
Sportspic.com

The opening weekend of 2015 NCAA tournament action was in-credible—both on the courts and in Las Vegas. Sportsbook crowds were bigger than I’ve ever seen them. Certainly, I’ve never seen big crowds quieter than during that first day when an astounding 12 of 16 underdogs covered the spread. Throw in the first four “play in” games—in which the ’dogs swept the board—and underdogs covered 16 of the first 20 games in the Big Dance.

The betting public always leans too heavily on favorites in March, and generally pays a price for doing so—but never like this.

Last week I mentioned how handicapping the first week-end was all about evaluating “chess matches.” You definitely saw that play out. The classic strengths (defense, guard play, rebounding) generally held up. The classic weaknesses (soft inside defense, over-reliance on 3-pointers, poor coaching tactics) sent many teams home.

How do you handicap from this point forward when all the chess winners are now playing each other? You’ll hear many veteran analysts this week say something to the effect of “it’s all about the matchups.” That’s just as true now as it’s ever been, as chess basically turns to Rock, Paper, Scissors, where what works great against one team won’t work at all against the other.

For example: Offenses that attack the basket will bully relatively passive inside defenses, but will run into brick walls against teams that sport a tall, physical inside presence. Meanwhile, offenses that depend on 3-pointers can shoot over those brick walls, but will find it tough getting open looks against hustling perimeter defenses.

With this in mind, here are some tips for successfully bet-ting this week’s Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games:

Tip #1: Know the strengths, weaknesses and preferred styles of all 16 remaining teams! If you watched a lot of games last weekend, you probably have a good sense for this. Visit your favorite basketball stat site to review key performance numbers on offense, defense, rebounding and pace (especially pace!), so you have an accurate picture of all eight Sweet 16 matchups. Then go back and review your notes when the winners play in the regional finals.

Tip #2: Now that you know each team’s key weakness, determine if their opponent is capable of exploiting it. If the answer is obviously “yes” for one team and “no” for the other, you probably have a smart bet on your hands. If both offenses can exploit the other’s defense, then the “Over” might be the best play. If neither offense is positioned to perform well, look to the “Under.”

Now, Rock, Paper, Scissors by itself isn’t enough, because we still have to consider line value. Generally speaking, “whoever wins, covers” has always been a good rule of thumb at this point. Problem is, there are still some pricey teams remaining in the tournament laying inflated numbers. Kentucky (36-0) may have one of the best teams in college basketball history, but they’re still 0-2 against the spread so far in thistournament. Wisconsin is another No. 1 seed that failed to cash in its two tourney contests.

So which teams are most likely to be overvalued this week? Media darlings; teams that shot over their heads last week (don’t forget to read those box scores!); and teams that lucked into easy draws (review the brackets!).

Who’s most likely to be underrated? Grinders that advanced despite shooting below their season average; teams from non-TV conferences that have great guards and/or strong defenses; and teams that have developed an “us against the world” chip on their shoulders.

Tip #3: Now do a quick “market evaluation” to determine whether each of the Sweet 16 teams is likely to be “over-rated,” “underrated” or “properly rated,” based on the bullet points above. This will only take you a few minutes, but will help isolate potential potholes or pathways.

Whatever you do when you get to the counter this week-end, good luck. I’ll be back next week to break down handicapping strategies for Final Four weekend. Those strategies may be as simple as, “Can anyone challenge Kentucky?!” Or maybe the 2015 Dance has a big surprise in store before Indianapolis.

Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Angles
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

If you are a player or a coach, there is nothing sweeter this time of the year than being alive in the NCAA Tournament.

For those teams that survived the opening two rounds of this main event it’s on to the Sweet 16 and, hopefully, the Elite 8 this weekend.

Here are essential notes and trends of the teams that have arrived. Stay tuned.

NCAA ROUND-BY-ROUND TOURNAMENT HISTORY

SWEET 16 ROUND NOTES

#1 Seeds off BB SUATS wins are 18-8 ATS (Duke)
#2 Seeds are 10-3 ATS off a DD ATS win (Gonzaga)
#3 Seeds off an ATS win are 1-5 ATS L3Y (Oklahoma)
#4 Seed favs 4 9 pts are 7-0-1 ATS (West Virginia)
#6 Seed dogs 6 > pts are 1-7 ATS (Xavier)
#7 Seeds off a DD SU win are 5-1 ATS (Wichita State)
#8 Seed dogs are 5-0 ATS (NC State)

Underdogs of 11 > pts are 9-2 ATS (West Virginia / Xavier)
Favorites of 11 > pts are 2-10 ATS (Kentucky)

Best Team ATS records in this round:

Kentucky: 5-0
Oklahoma, Xavier: 4-0
North Carolina, West Virginia: 4-1

Worst Team ATS records in this round:

Gonzaga, Michigan State: 0-3
UCLA: 1-7
Utah: 1-3-1

Best Conference ATS records in this round:

SEC: 7-1-1
Big East: 5-1 as dogs

Worst Conference ATS records in this round:

Big 12: 0-4
West Coast: 0-3
Big Ten: 3-14-1
MVC: 1-4

COACH ME IF YOU CAN

Louisville’s Rick Pitino is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in the Sweet 16 during his career.

ELITE 8 ROUND NOTES

#1 Seed favs > 7 pts are 1-8 ATS
#2 Seeds are 3-10-1 ATS off a DD ATS win
#3 Seeds are 1-9 ATS
#4 Seeds are 11-2 ATS
#5 Seeds are 7-0 ATS
#6 Seeds are 2-5 ATS
#7 Seeds are 1-6 SU
#8 Seeds are 5-1 ATS

Teams that score 67 pts are 28-7 SU & 25-8-2 ATS
Teams off 3+ ATS wins are 6-1-1 ATS
Teams with Revenge are 16-5-1 ATS
Dogs off 3 straight DD wins are 1-5-1 ATS

Best Conference ATS records in this round:

SEC: 5-0 as favs 7 > pts
Pac-12: 4-1 as dogs
Big 10: 4-1 as dogs
Big East: 7-3-1 as dogs

Worst Conference ATS records in this round:

Big 12: 1-11
Pac-12: 1-5 as favs 2 > pts
Big East: 1-4 as favs 4 < pts
ACC: 3-7
SEC: 2-5 as favs < 7 pts

NCAA Tournament Biggest Betting Mismatches: Sweet 16
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-13.5, 136.5)

Mountaineers’ second-chance looks vs. Wildcats’ weak rebounding

Kentucky may have defeated Cincinnati by 13 points in the Round of 32, but the Bearcats had UK faithful sweating a bit. Cincinnati wasn’t afraid of the big bad Wildcats and pushed around Kentucky inside, grabbing 19 offensive rebounds and scoring 14 second-chance points.

West Virginia presents even more of a threat on the offensive glass. The Mountaineers average 14.3 offensive rebounds per game – second in the nation – and create 13.1 extra scoring chances per contest – most in the country by a lot (VCU was second at 7.6). The Wildcats, on the year, allowed opponents to scoop up 9.4 offensive boards an outing – 236th in Div. I. Kentucky has the talent to overcome that glaring weakness, but you never want to give away this many extra looks with a spread this big.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Wisconsin Badgers (-6, 144)

Tar Heels’ poor shooting vs. Wisconsin’ ability to slow down the game

Roy Williams’ game plan is about as secret as Kanye West’s innermost thoughts. The Heels are going to run and gun, push the tempo and attempt to score as many buckets in transition as they can. North Carolina ranks near the top of the country in possessions per game, at 71.9, and has even cranked that knob to 11 in the tournament, with 79.2 possessions in their track meet with Arkansas in the Round of 32.

Williams and the Tar Heels are approaching a very large speed bump in the Sweet 16. Wisconsin, known for its clock-eating offense under Bo Ryan, sits with just 61 possessions per game – sixth fewest in the country. What that does is drag the pace to a standstill and force UNC to play a halfcourt game. According to TheTarHeelBlog.com, North Carolina is 13-3 SU when possessing the ball 70 or more times but just 13-8 when posting less than 70 possessions this season. The Tar Heels aren’t a great shooting team in a half-court set and will struggle to get the looks they want against the Badgers.

Utah Utes vs. Duke Blue Devils (-5.5, 135)

Utes’ towering frontcourt vs. Jahlil Okafor’s foul shooting

Okafor has been great in the opening two games of the tournament, setting Duke’s freshmen NCAA scoring record with 47 points combined versus Robert Morris and San Diego State. Okafor even went 100 percent from the stripe against the Aztecs – 2 for 2 – but Duke fans aren’t counting on their star big man to knock them down at the stripe. For all his talents, Okafor is a terrible foul shooter, hitting just 51.6 percent from the line this season.

Utah presents a tall task for the project No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft – namely 7-foot freshman center Jakob Poeltl, who is quickly pumping up his draft stock this March. The native of Austria had 12 points in the win against Georgetown, handling a very tough Hoyas frontcourt. Behind Poeltl is fellow 7-footer Dallin Bachynski and 6-foot-10 Jeremy Olsen. That’s plenty of beef and 15 fouls the Utes can throw at Okafor. And with the way Utah is shooting the ball from deep, Duke can’t afford to trade 1-for-2 trips to the stripe against 3-pointers from the Utes.

Michigan State Spartans vs. Oklahoma Sooners (+2, 134.5)

Spartans half-court defense vs. Sooners’ up-tempo attack

Michigan State had better get its rest before Friday’s Sweet 16 game. The Spartans face a Sooners offensive that loves to push the tempo and fire up the quick shot, something MSU just doesn’t run into much playing in the methodical pace of the Big Ten. Michigan State, which had just 56 possessions in the win over Virginia, last faced a team with this pace in a 96-90 OT loss to Minnesota in late February. Sparty fired up 63 shots (average only 55.8) and turned the ball over 13 times in that contest.

Oklahoma will attempt to beat MSU down the floor and escape playing in a half-court offense, something the Spartans defend against better than most. In the win over Virginia, it was Tom Izzo’s adjustments on help defense that led MSU to a berth in the Sweet 16. The Sooners, who average 18.5 seconds per possession, want to avoid a physical grinder and turn this into a game of “catch us if you can”.

NCAA Sweet 16 Betting Action Report
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

Sweet 16 odds have been on the board since matchups took shape this weekend and while the majority of the money is going to show on Thursday and Friday, there have been some significant moves to those spreads and totals throughout the week.

We talk with sportsbooks online and in Nevada about the biggest adjustments to Thursday's Sweet 16 odds and where those games could end up come tipoff:

Wichita State Shockers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Open: Pick: Move: +2

Following their win over Kansas in the Round of 32, the Shockers have drawn the early money from bettors, moving this spread as many as 2-points at some books. However, one Las Vegas veteran smells something fishy with this line movement.

“I don’t fully understand it,” Jimmy Vaccaro, oddsmaker at South Point Casino, tells Covers. “I’m not calling it a ‘set-up game’ but I think there will be sharper money coming in on Notre Dame.”

Online, at Sportsbook.ag, Peter Childs saw similar money on the Shockers and tacked on extra points to their spread for this Thursday matchup. However, once the line hit WSU -2, wiseguys stormed back and bought Notre Dame as the underdog.

“We booked a ton of Notre Dame money and pushed this line back down to 1-1.5 points,” Childs tells Covers. “At Wichita -1.5, we’ve seen very good two-way action and I don’t see us moving off this line until we get closer to game time.”

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Wisconsin Badgers – Open: -3.5, Move: -6

The news that UNC forward Kennedy Meeks will miss the Sweet 16 with a knee injury has forced books to adjust the spread for this big-name battle. According to Jason Simbal, vice president of race and sports for CG Technology in Nevada, Meeks is worth as much as 1.5 points to the Tar Heels spread due to this particular matchup.

“When we sat down to make the line we were thinking 3.5 or four, then when we heard (Meeks) was out, the line went to -6,” says Simbal. “You have a big guy who can run the floor like that, and North Carolina will have to run against Wisconsin, he’s worth a lot more against those big teams. Around 1.5 or two points.”

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Kentucky Wildcats – Open: -14, Move: -13.5

This spread hasn’t moved much since opened as high as 14 points and what action has come in has been on West Virginia. Books are now dealing UK -13.5 but it’s the moneyline bets on the Mountaineers at +850 to pull off the upset that have caught the attention of sportsbooks.

“There’s already a good amount of action on West Virginia, and a lot of that is moneyline,” says Simbal. “A lot of people will throw the WVU moneyline on some parlays and many will lay the points with Kentucky, making this a game we need UK to win by one through 13. It’s a nice middle to have on a game.”

Xavier Musketeers vs. Arizona Wildcats – Open: -9.5, Move: -11.5, Move: -10

Early action is on Arizona to cover, moving this Sweet 16 spread to double figures. The Wildcats haven’t been tested in the tournament so far and bettors don’t see Xavier stepping up to the challenge. Most Nevada books have taken all smaller wagers on Arizona and expect the tourist crowd to keep that trend rolling into the weekend. Online is another story, however, where the Wildcats got as high as -11.5 before wiseguys bought back the Musketeers.

“Arizona saw a lot of action not long after opening, driving the spread to -11 and then -11.5,” John Lester, of Bookmaker.eu, tells Covers. “But on Tuesday, we saw some steam on Xavier so we adjusted down a point. Unless the public gets more involved, I’m guessing this one closes at -10.”

Sweet Sixteen Betting Preview
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

The insanity that is March Madness just provided bettors and fans alike with one of the more memorable opening weekends of NCAA Tournament action. Now that the dust has settled, it’s time to take a look at the 16 teams still standing in the Big Dance from a pointspread perspective. Which squads offer some semblance of betting value moving forward and which do not? Read on to find out.

Two conferences stood out above the rest this past weekend. The ACC sent a whopping five teams to the Sweet 16 out of six Big Dance entrants while going 11-1 SU. But bettors didn’t make a dime supporting those ACC teams, who combined to go 5-7 ATS. Duke was the lone ACC squad to notch a pair of pointspread covers. Notre Dame was one of two teams (Kentucky being the other) to go 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS.

The PAC-12, on the other hand, produced both SU and ATS success for bettors this past weekend. The four PAC-12 entrants combined to go 7-1 SU, sending three teams to the Sweet 16. Even more impressively, the conference combined to go 7-1 ATS; the lone non-cover coming in Arizona’s 21 point opening round win as 23 point favorites over Texas Southern.

Half the remaining field comes from those two conferences. Only two teams remain live out of the seven Big 12 entrants. It’s the same story for the Big 10, with two teams still standing out of the seven that received tourney bids. The SEC has only Kentucky left standing out of their five tourney teams; the Big East only has Xavier standing out of their six entrants. Two elite level mid-majors -- Gonzaga from the WCC and Wichita State from the Missouri Valley Conference -- round out the field for the second weekend of Big Dance action.

It’s also worth noting that this is the first time in more than a decade that a single region (in this instance the East) lost their #1 seed (Villanova) and #2 seed (Virginia) prior to the Sweet 16. And when it comes to lower seeds advancing, #7 Wichita State, #8 NC State, #7 Michigan State, #6 Xavier and #11 UCLA all survived and advanced; another clear indicator that the selection committee seeding process is somewhat flawed (to put it mildly).

Without further ado, it’s time to go through the Sweet 16, team by team.

West Virginia wasn’t a healthy team at any point down the stretch of their Big 12 campaign. They were without leading scorer Juwan Staten and fellow senior guard Gary Browne for the last few weeks; a big part of their 1-3 SU and ATS slide to close out the regular season and conference tourney play. But with that duo healthy, Bob Huggins’ team has played better than their power rating would suggest, notching a pair of wins and covers to reach the Sweet 16.

As mentioned above, Kentucky enjoyed a pair of double-digit victories on opening weekend, yet the Wildcats produced an 0-2 spread mark for their supporters. It’s very difficult for me to bet Kentucky games at all. I have no interest in stepping in front of the best team in the country by a wide margin. But at the same time, both bettors and bookmakers know how good John Calipari’s team really is and have priced them appropriately.

Wichita State closed out the regular season with seven consecutive wins and covers, playing their best basketball down the stretch. That left the Shockers somewhat overvalued as they proceeded to lose ATS in both MVC Tournament games and their Big Dance opener against Indiana prior to their impressive win over Kansas on Sunday. It’s worth noting that two years ago, on their run to the Final Four, the Shockers went 5-0 ATS. It’s also worth noting that they were 4.5 point favorites over Kentucky in the Big Dance last year, not a team that bettors and oddsmakers are routinely mispricing.

Can the death of a coach’s mom become a legitimate handicapping factor? In this case, it might. Notre Dame failed to cover the spread in either of their first two tournament victories, although they did find a way to eke out a tough OT win over Butler hours after head coach Mike Brey’s mother passed away. Now Brey is headed to Orlando to be with his family while his team returns to South Bend to prepare for their trip to Cleveland. Brey’s got a veteran squad that shouldn’t suffer too much in his absence, but this is the school’s first trip to the Sweet 16 in a dozen years.

Xavier, on the other hand, was in the Sweet 16 just three years ago. Senior point guard Dee Davis was a backup during that run, but he certainly learned from the experience. The Musketeers incredibly allowed Georgia State to grab only eleven rebounds in their matchup over the weekend while shooting 68% from the floor and 88% from the free throw line. Despite those gaudy stats, they still only covered the spread by a single point.

Arizona’s defense allowed 72 points on 47% shooting in their tourney opener, costing their backers a pointspread cover. Senior guard TJ McConnell: “It’s just disappointing, the way we played defense. It starts with me… You have to be intense for the whole 40 minutes. If you have a lead that big and if you lose your intensity that carries over into the next game and we’ve just got to be better.” The Wildcats were better, upping their defensive intensity against Ohio State, holding star DeAngelo Russell to a 3-of-19 shooting effort in their comfortable 15-point win.

Opposing teams are doing their best to force the ball out of North Carolina point guard Marcus Paige’s hands and into the hands of his turnover prone teammates. Paige led the team in scoring, hitting big shots down the stretch against Arkansas. But he finished the game without a single assist and the Tar Heels committed 16 turnovers; both problematic stats with elite Wisconsin on deck.

Speaking of Wisconsin, Bo Ryan’s senior point guard Traveon Jackson was cleared to resume practicing last week. But Jackson hasn’t played a game since early January and awkward point guard playing time debates can be very problematic at this stage of the season. I’d be much more inclined to back the Badgers moving forward if Jackson continues to sit.

North Carolina State is the only team in the field that has been able to notch a pair of SU victories over #1 seeds this season, beating Duke in the regular season and Villanova over the opening weekend. LSU’s opening round late game meltdown left the window open for the Wolfpack in a region with no clear favorite moving forward.

Money poured in against Louisville in its opener against Cal Irvine, and bettors were rewarded when the Anteaters hung tough for 40 minutes in a two point loss. Money poured in against Louisville again on Sunday, but this time bettors got burned thanks to a stifling defensive effort from Rick Pitino’s squad, the only team other than Michigan State to reach the Sweet 16 in each of the last four years.

Michigan State has been a Final Four fixture through the Tom Izzo era and the Spartans have certainly played their best basketball over the course of the last few weeks. Senior stud Brandon Dawson is healthy and he’s shot 50% or better from the floor in each of the Spartans last five games.

Lon Kruger became the first head coach to win an NCAA Tournament game at five different schools when Oklahoma knocked off Albany in their opening round game. Then Kruger became the first coach to lead four teams to the Sweet 16 with the Sooners impressive win over Dayton in a very hostile arena in Columbus.

UCLA received the single most criticized bid that the tournament selection committee doled out. But after a 2-0 weekend, the Bruins are now 11-4 SU in their last 15 games. Even the four losses look good – two of them came in highly competitive games against Arizona, the other two came on the road by exactly two points each.

Gonzaga benefitted from the friendly Seattle crowds over the weekend but now they are laying big points against the aforementioned Bruins squad in Houston. Then again, the current -8.5 point spread doesn’t look quite so high when noting the Zags 7-0-1 ATS mark as single digit favorites this year, including a 13 point win in LA against the Bruins back in December.

Utah was able to win and cover twice (some bettors pushed with the Utes -7 in their opener, a line that moved on gameday) on the opening weekend, despite the fact that their leading scorer and top playmaker Delon Wright was a complete non-factor. Wright went 2-7 from the field in each of their first two tourney games while committing a team high nine turnovers; stats that must improve if the Utes are going to beat Duke.

The Blue Devils played as well as any team in the country on the opening weekend of the Dance. The public Duke squad has been rewarding their backers consistently of late, riding a 6-1 ATS run into their matchup with Utah.

Sweet 16 Preview
Covers.com

The Sweet 16 field is now set, and while there's an absence of a true Cinderella like a Florida Gulf Coast, that often means we're going to see better, and more competitive games from here on out. Of course, there still were a number of upsets over the weekend in a Tournament that I feel is already guaranteed to be better than last year's "dud."

Below you will find analysis of all 16 teams remaining in the field. They are ranked by their odds to win the championship.

The Favorite

1. Kentucky (Even) - Where else did you think I would start? The 36-0 Wildcats are currently at even money to cut down the nets and a slight favorite if you want to bet them against the entire remaining field. The sportbooks are clearly going to be rooting against Coach Cal and company, particularly William Hill in Vegas which took a wager at 50-1 odds that UK would run the table. At this point, I would have them as a double-digit favorite against every other team left, except four, even though they are 0-2 ATS so far in the Tournament. Interestingly, Calipari has a 2-6 (straight up) career record coaching against WVU's Bob Huggins.

The Contenders

2. Arizona (5/1) - They may not even be the best group of "Wildcats" in the field, but they are my second choice to win this Tournament right now. Arizona turned in two impressive performances over the weekend, beating Texas Southern 93-72 (didn't cover as 23.5 pt faves though) and then Ohio State (73-58, -10). Curiously, the line for their Sweet 16 matchup with Xavier is identical to the Ohio State line despite the fact that most power rankings I've seen had the Buckeyes higher than the Musketeers. Sean Miller's team hasn't lost a game since since February 7th (13-0 SU, 10-3 ATS) and is the only team besides UK to rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. All three of their losses came to non-Tournament teams.

3. Duke (6/1) - Unlike the two other top seeds still remaining, the Blue Devils covered the spread in each of their first two games. Totals players may want to note that six of their past seven games have gone Under. Getting to face a San Diego State team that was battling a virus was a slight advantage in the last round. Jahlil Okafor has turned in a pair of monster games to this point.

4. Wisconsin (7/1) - The Badgers are the top seed out West, but I have them a notch below Arizona. They are at somewhat of a disadvantage drawing North Carolina as their Sweet 16 opponent, a tougher matchup that 'Zona has with Xavier and the odds reflect that. One of the Badgers' three losses this year came against a Duke team that also beat UNC twice. The numbers suggest Wisconsin is the most efficient offense in the nation, but what about the defense? They did just hold Oregon to just 65 points and are allowing just 56.8 points per game. That being said, they went 0-2 ATS last weekend

5. Gonzaga (12/1) - In the Sweet 16 for the first time in six years, are the 'Zags being overlooked? Once could certainly make the case that they are. They absolutely dominated an Iowa team that looked very impressive just two days prior against Davidson, winning by 19. This is the best shooting team in the entire country and Sunday marked the sixth time this season that they were 60% or better from the field. The draw has worked out for them too as they play the only double digit seed left in the field (UCLA) in the Sweet 16. I'd actually put the Bulldogs ahead of Duke as the favorites to win their region.

6. Michigan State (12/1) - Yes, the Tom Izzo narrative has grown into a cliche, but it doesn't make it any less true. Sparty has hurt the sportsbooks twice so far as the public went heavy on them against both Georgia (not surprising) and then Virginia (as a dog) and ended up 2-0 ATS. Perhaps we should have seen this coming considering they played seven overtime games during the year and went an "unlucky" 2-5 in those. Izzo is now 11-9 SU as a lower-seed in the Tournament, so predictably they are the one lower seed favored to win its Sweet 16 matchup. I understand that the East Region is wide open right now (no 1 or 2 seed), but I'll disagree with the odds that place MSU in the same category as the above teams.

Final Four Material?

7. North Carolina (25/1) - With the exception of one bad second half stretch against Harvard, Roy Williams' Tar Heels have looked pretty good so far. I took them against Arkansas in their second game (covered!) and while they have now turned the ball over 33 times in two games, this team is second nationally in rebounding, assists and points in the paint. The fact that five ACC teams made the Sweet 16 makes UNC's record look a little better. Starting forward Kennedy Meeks did sprain his left knee in the Arkansas game and his status for Thursday's game vs. Wisconsin is questionable, which is a concern.

8. Utah (25/1) - Larry Krystkowiak's team turned in two very impressive defensive performances to start the Tournament. Holding trendy underdog Stephen F Austin to just 50 points is no small feat. The Utes are now 2-0 ATS after dispatching Georgetown in the Round of 32. While their overall level of play tends to dip rather significantly away from Salt Lake City, most (including myself) thought this team was underseeded and you have to take note of their 25-12 ATS record as underdogs the last three seasons.

9. Louisville (30/1) - Making their fourth consecutive Sweet 16 appearance is a bit of a surprise given the off-court turmoil and poor finish to the regular season. They also struggled with UC Irvine in the Round of 64. But Sunday's win over a very good Northern Iowa team should have caught your attention. The key for Rick Pitino's team is defense as they've held the opposition under 60 points in each of their last six victories.

10. Wichita State (30/1) - I think it's a good thing that their huge, program-defining win over in-state "rival" Kansas was the second game of the weekend as the Shockers now have a couple of days to process and hopefully avoid any kind of letdown. It's funny the way the Tournament works as last year this team came in unbeaten as a 1-seed and lost in the Round of 32. This year, they were way underseeded as a seven and probably are a better team. The wins over Indiana and KU were much different, which is a good thing, as it shows Greg Marshall's team can win in a variety of ways. The early money has come in on them for the Sweet 16 matchup with Notre Dame.

11. Oklahoma (30/1) - The highest remaining seed in the East Region doesn't seem to be getting a whole lot of respect given that both Louisville and Michigan State have lower odds to win the Championship. That probably has a lot to do with the high profile coaches at those other two schools, but don't make the mistake of sleeping on Lon Kruger, who is the only coach in history to take four different schools to the Sweet 16. Somewhat predictably, the Sooners are underdogs to Michigan State in the Sweet 16 as they did lose to them by double digits last season on a neutral floor. Only two Big 12 teams remain, which isn't a good sign for OU, and Conference Player of the Year Buddy Hield must play better.

12. Notre Dame (35/1) - The Irish are 0-2 ATS so far in the tournament, barely beating 14-seed Northeastern and then needing overtime to escape Butler. HC Mike Brey, who lost his mother Saturday afternoon, is now 1-9 ATS all-time in the Big Dance. As I said in my analysis before the Northeastern, the Fighting Irish's dramatic splits in offensive and defensive efficiency should give you some pause. As I said when discussing Wichita State, early money has come in against the Irish.

The Long Shots

13. North Carolina State (60/1) - The Wolfpack pulled off one of the legitimate stunners of this tournament so far, beating top seeded Villanova Saturday night. It's not like NC State didn't already have quality wins on its resume (they've beaten Duke, UNC and Louisville), it's just that I had a lot of regard for 'Nova. If you're a Wolfpack fan, then you have to love getting a conference opponent (Louisville) that your team already beat during the regular season, on the road. On the flip side, the fact that they were very fortunate to advance past LSU and have shot just 8 for 35 from three-point range in two games must be considered as well.

14. West Virginia (75/1) - Anyone who watched the Mountaineers' impressive win over Maryland Sunday night (myself included, as I was on them) would scoff at them being mentioned down here amongst the long shots. But the problem is that they draw Kentucky in the Sweet 16, which likely signals the end of WVU's run. That will be the first time all season that they are a double digit underdog.

15. Xavier (75/1) - Certainly one of the more unheralded teams left in the field, the Musketeers were a popular pick to be upset in each of their first two games. Yet, not only did they defeat both Ole Miss and Georgia State, but they covered the spread by double digits each time out. The Sweet 16 will be a large step up in class, however, and remember Xavier was blown out twice by Villanova down the stretch.

16. UCLA (100/1) - The lone double digit seed still standing, I'm still not sure UCLA deserved to even be in the Tournament. They got a fortunate call at the end of the SMU game and then a fortunate draw in the Round of 32 against 14-seed UAB. Do not forget this team trailed Kentucky 41-7 at halftime earlier this year. The Bruins clearly are the team with the least shot of making a Final Four, let alone win the National Championship. They lost to Gonzaga, at home, during the regular season.