Sweet 16 Stats & Angles
By ASAWins.com
Thursday, Mar. 24
No. 3 Miami, Fl. vs. No. 2 Villanova
Villanova had the highest combined margin of victory of any team in the field in the first 2 rounds at +49 points (vs Iowa & UNC Asheville)
Nova had 8 players average double digit minutes in first 2 rounds with nobody topping 31 minutes in either game
Miami is 129-89 ATS as an underdog since 1997
22% of Miami’s points this year have come from the FT line which is the highest percentage remaining the in field – the Canes shoot 75% from the line
No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Oklahoma
Oklahoma relies on the 3-pointer more than any other team remaining with 38.6% of their points this year coming from deep
Texas A&M starts 4 seniors however NOBODY on their team had ever played in an NCAA tourney game before this season
The Sooners have the 2nd highest 3-point % in College BB this season at 42.5%
Oklahoma has played in 6 NCAA tournament games the last 3 seasons covering the spread just once
OU coach Lon Kruger has coached in 5 Sweet 16’s. This will be A&M coach Billy Kennedy’s first.
No. 5 Maryland vs. No. 1 Kansas
Over the last 12 games, Maryland guard Melo Trimble has made only 32% of his shots and just 26% from beyond the arc
Kansas is 21-10 ATS as a favorite this season
The Jayhawks have won 24 of their last 28 games (straight up) when facing a team with a winning record
KU coach Bill Self has an NCAA tourney record of 39-16 (70%). Maryland coach Mark Turgeon is just 8-6 lifetime in the Big Dance
No. 4 Duke vs. No. 1 Oregon
Duke turns the ball over less than any team remaining at just 14% - 5th nationally
The Ducks have 7 players averaging 21+ minutes this season
Duke’s coach Krzyzewski is an amazing 90-26 (77%) in the NCAA tournament which is the most wins for any coach AND the highest win percentage for those who have coached at least 10 games in the Big Dance
Oregon’s Dana Altman is 8-11 (42%) in NCAA tournament games
The Total has gone UNDER every time Duke has been tabbed an underdog this year (6 UNDERS, 0 OVERS)
Friday, Mar. 25
No. 4 Iowa State vs. No. 1 Virginia
Iowa State is the top team remaining in offensive efficiency ranking 2nd nationally
Iowa State is DEAD LAST (351st) in the country at getting to the stripe with only 13.8% of their points coming from the FT line
However, the Cyclones are 2nd nationally on the flip side of that as only 14% of their opponents points come from the FT line
Iowa State is the worst offensive rebounding team remaining – 269th nationally. The rebound just 26% of their own misses
Virginia is top team remaining in defensive efficiency ranking 4th nationally
Virginia scores only 25% of their points from beyond the arc which is the lowest percentage remaining
No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
Notre Dame & Wisconsin are two of the worst teams nationally at defending the 3 ranking 302nd and 313th respectively
The Badgers have won 11 of their last 13 NCAA tournament games
The Irish were 7-7 this season vs teams that made the NCAA tournament – that includes their 2-0 mark so far
Wisconsin was 11-6 this season vs teams that made the Big Dance – that also includes their 2-0 mark thus far
These two teams play among the slowest tempos in college hoops – Notre Dame’s adjusted tempo is 321st and Wisconsin’s is 345th
No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 1 North Carolina
Indiana uses their bench more than any other team remaining – 51st nationally in bench minutes
Indiana turns the ball over more than any team remaining at nearly 20% - 273rd nationally
UNC is the top offensive rebounding team left in the tourney – 4th nationally. The Heels rebound 40% of their own misses
The Hoosiers are the best shooting team in the nation with an eFG% of 59% - they are in the top 5 nationally in both 3 point FG% and 2 point FG%
UNC coach Roy Williams has an NCAA tourney record of 67-23 (74%) which ranks him 4th all time (winning % wise)
No. 11 Gonzaga vs. No. 10 Syracuse
Syracuse uses their bench less than any other team remaining – 350th nationally in bench minutes
Gonzaga comes into the Sweet 16 as the lowest remaining seed (11 seed). Since 1979, just three 11 seeds
have gone onto make the Final 4
The Zags are 8th nationally at defending the 3 allowing just 30% from beyond the arc
Syracuse is the first 10 seed to reach the Sweet 16 since Steph Curry’s Davidson team back in 2008. Since expanding to 64 teams in 1985, no 10 seed has ever made the Final 4
The Orange are the only team remaining that plays almost exclusively zone defense
Regional Betting Trends
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
If you are a player or a coach, there is nothing sweeter this time of the year than being alive in the NCAA Tournament. For those teams that survived the opening two rounds of this main event it’s on to the Sweet 16 and, hopefully, the Elite 8 this weekend.
Here are essential notes and trends of the teams that have arrived. Stay tuned. Note: all stats are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.
NCAA SWEET 16 ROUND NOTES
#1 Seeds off BB SUATS wins are 19-8 ATS (Kansas)
#2 Seed favs of > 4 pts are 2-6-1 ATS (Villanova)
#3 Seed dogs of > 4 pts are 6-1 ATS (Miami, Florida)
#4 Seed dogs < 6 pts are 6-1 ATS (Duke, Iowa State)
#5 Seeds off a DD SU win are 0-4 ATS (Maryland)
#6 Seeds off a SU favorite win are 5-0 ATS (Notre Dame)
#7 Seed dogs of 3 < pts are 1-3 ATS (Wisconsin)
#10 or worse seed dogs of > 4 pts are 6-1 ATS (Syracuse)
Favorites off a SU win of 20 > pts are 0-4 ATS (Gonzaga)
Best Team ATS records in this round
Wisconsin 3-0
Oregon 2-0
Virginia 2-0
Oklahoma 4-1
Duke 3-1
Worst Team ATS records in this round
Miami-FL 0-2
Syracuse 1-6
Gonzaga 1-3
Indiana 1-3
Kansas 4-10
Best Conference ATS records in this round
SEC: 7-1-1
Big East: 5-1 as dogs
Worst Conference ATS records in this round
Big 12: 0-6
MVC: 0-4
West Coast: 1-3
Pac 12: 2-6
NCAA ELITE 8 ROUND NOTES
#1 Seed favs > 7 pts are 1-9 ATS
#2 Seeds are 3-10-1 ATS off a DD ATS win
#3 Seeds are 2-9 ATS
#4 Seeds are 11-3 ATS
#5 Seeds are 7-0 ATS
#6 Seeds are 2-5 ATS
#7 Seeds are 3-1-1 ATS
#8 Seeds are 5-1 ATS
Teams that score 67 < pts are 17-49 SU & 17-46-3 ATS
Teams that score 85 > pts are 29-7 SU & 26-8-2 ATS
Teams off 3+ ATS wins are 7-1-1 ATS
Teams with Revenge are 16-6-1 ATS
Dogs off 3 straight DD wins are 2-7-1 ATS
Best Conference ATS records in this round
Big East: 6-1 as dogs 4 < pts
Big 10: 5-1 as dogs
SEC: 5-1 as favs 7 > pts
Pac 12: 4-1 as dogs
Worst Conference ATS records in this round
Big 12: 0-11, ACC: 0-4 as favs > 7 pts
Pac 12: 1-5 as favs 2 > pts
Big East: 1-4 as favs 4 < pts
SEC: 2-5 as favs < 7 pts
COACH ME IF YOU CAN
Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski is 20-5 SU from the Elite 8 Round out since 1991, including 15-2 ATS when not favored by 7 or more points
Sweet 16 Primer
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Six ACC teams and all four No. 1 seeds are still alive in the 2016 NCAA Tournament that saw its field reduced to 16 during Sunday’s thrilling set of games.
Notre Dame is one of the ACC schools that still has a pulse thanks to a 76-75 win over Stephen F. Austin in a helluva Round of 32 slugfest at Barclays Arena in Brooklyn. The Lumberjacks covered the spread as 1.5-point underdogs, while the 151 combined points zipped ‘over’ the 139.5-point total.
Rex Pflueger’s amazing tip-in of a Zach Auguste miss with 1.5 seconds remaining lifted the Fighting Irish to a second straight Sweet 16 appearance. The bucket was Pflueger’s only one of the game, an epic affair that never saw more than a seven-point separation that the Fighting Irish enjoyed midway through the second half.
Demetrius Jackson and Auguste were the catalysts for Mike Brey’s team. Jackson finished with 18 points on 6-of-8 shooting from the field. He drained 2-of-3 attempts from downtown, including a trey with less than one second remaining in the first half to send the Irish to the locker room with a one-point cushion. Jackson’s 3-ball allowed Notre Dame to either push (-1) or cover (pick ‘em, -120 or -125 price) for its backers on first-half bets.
Auguste finished with 16 points and 15 rebounds, making 8-of-9 shots from the field. V.J. Beachem scored 15 points and seven rebounds.
Notre Dame, a No. 6 seed, will face seventh-seeded Wisconsin on Friday at 7:25 p.m. Eastern in Philadelphia. One book had the Irish favored by 1.5 points early this morning.
Stephen F. Austin had won 21 in a row after bouncing third-seeded West Va. from the Tournament as a seven-point underdog Friday night. Senior Thomas Walkup saw his collegiate career end in gut-wrenching fashion, but he went out on his sword. He played terrific in his final game, producing 21 points, five rebounds and five assists without committing a turnover.
Wisconsin advanced by edging Xavier on Bronson Koenig’s buzzer beater from the corner while fading out of bounds. The Badgers trailed by nine with 6:19 remaining, but a trey by Koenig knotted the score at 63-63 with 11.7 seconds left. After Zak Showalter drew a charge with 4.7 seconds left, UW inbounded to halfcourt before calling its last timeout to set up a play that led to Koenig’s game winner.
Wisconsin is in the region semifinals for the fifth time in six years. The Badgers are here despite starting the season with a 9-9 record and despite losing legendary head coach Bo Ryan to retirement before Christmas.
The late game in Philly will pit No. 1 seed North Carolina against fifth-seeded Indiana. The Tar Heels have been installed as six-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 160.
IU bounced Kentucky from the Tournament on Saturday night in Des Moines. Meanwhile, North Carolina overcame a four-point halftime deficit to pull away and even cover as a double-digit favorite vs. Providence.
Jay Wright has his Villanova (31-5 SU, 17-17-1 ATS) program back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2009 after it destroyed Iowa 87-68 in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated. The Wildcats easily hooked up their backers as six-point favorites.
Senior guard Ryan Arcidiacono led the way with 16 points and four assists without a turnover. Josh Hart scored a team-high 19 points, while Kris Jenkins finished with 15 points, two steals and six assists without a turnover.
Villanova will take on Miami on Thursday night in Louisville, Ky. The Westgate opened Villanova as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 142.5 points. The Hurricanes, who beat Wichita St. as two-point underdogs Saturday, are +180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).
The other South Region semifinal matchup features No. 1 seed Kansas against fifth-seeded Maryland. One book had the Jayhawks installed as seven-point favorites early this morning.
KU took the cash in Saturday’s 73-61 win over UConn as an eight-point favorite. Meanwhile, the Terrapins put away a pesky Hawaii squad with a 14-0 run midway through the second half of a 73-60 win in Spokane, WA. They covered the number as 7.5-point favorites, while the 133 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 144-point tally.
Melo Trimble paced the winners with 24 points, eight rebounds and three assists. Diamond Stone and Rasheed Sulaimon finished with 14 points apiece.
The SEC still has life – somehow. Northern Iowa blew a 12-point lead with 35 seconds remaining in a collapse of unfathomable proportions. Texas A&M took advantage and won a 92-88 decision in double overtime.
Forty-eight hours after beating Texas on a buzzer beater off the glass from halfcourt by senior Paul Jesperson, the Panthers committed four turnovers in 33 seconds and allowed the Aggies to make six straight shots to end regulation. Nevertheless, NIU still took the money as a seven-point underdog.
Alex Caruso led the winners with 25 points, nine rebounds and three assists. Danuel House finished with 22 points and eight boards. NIU’s Jeremy Morgan was sensational in heartbreaking defeat, producing 36 points, 12 boards, three steals, two assists and a pair of blocked shots.
Billy Kennedy’s squad will take on Oklahoma in Anaheim on Thursday night in the West Region semifinals. One betting shop had the Sooners favored by two early this morning.
OU slipped past VCU by an 85-81 count in what equated to a home game on Oklahoma City. The Rams trailed by 13 at halftime, but they stormed back and into the lead with 9:55 remaining thanks to back-to-back 3-pointers from Michael Gilmore.
Buddy Hield’s 3-ball with 6:37 left gave the Sooners the lead back for good, though. The senior All-American erupted for 29 of his game-high 36 points in the second half. VCU’s Melvin Johnson and JeQuan Lewis scored 23 and 22 points, respectively.
Form held in the West Region, leaving us with a semifinal showdown between No. 1 seed Oregon and fourth-seeded Duke. The Blue Devils nearly blew a 27-point second-half lead Saturday against Yale. The Bulldogs trimmed the deficit to three, but Duke pulled away in the final minute for a 71-64 triumph as a six-point favorite.
Oregon beat St. Joseph’s 69-64 thanks to an 11-4 run in the final two minutes, but the Hawks covered the spread as seven-point underdogs. Dillon Brooks led the way with a game-high 25 points.
In the Midwest Region, a double-digit seed with play in the Elite Eight at United Center in Chicago this weekend. That’s because No. 10 seed Syracuse and No. 11 seed Gonzaga will collide in one semifinal matchup.
Both schools were on the bubble two weeks ago. Jim Boeheim’s team advanced by smashing Middle Tennessee 75-50 Sunday as a six-point ‘chalk.’ Gonzaga drilled third-seeded Utah 82-59 on Saturday night, two days after dropping Seton Hall by a 68-52 score.
As of early this morning, most books had Gonzaga favored by 4.5 points with a total of 135.
Virginia and Iowa State will face each other in Friday’s early game from the Windy City. The Cavaliers are favored by 5.5 with a total of 141 points.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Bettors backing Northern Iowa on the money line for a +250 return obviously sustained all-timer of a bad beat. However, those on the Panthers plus seven might’ve taken the worst beat (EVER!) if not for inept free-throw shooting from Texas A&M in the second extra session.
St. Joseph’s finished its season with an incredible 10-1-1 spread record in 12 games as an underdog. The Hawks won nine of those games outright, but they were unable to do so against the Ducks.
Texas A&M is in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2007.
Florida advanced to the NIT quarterfinals by winning 74-66 at Ohio St. as a 1.5-point favorite Sunday afternoon in Columbus. The Gators will play on the road Wednesday against the winner of Monday’s winner of George Washington at Monmouth. Dorian Finney-Smith had 16 points and 12 rebounds against the Buckeyes. Kasey Hill had 15 points, five assists, three rebounds and two steals.
The collegiate careers of Charles Mann and Kenny Gaines came to an end Sunday night in Georgia’s 77-65 loss at Saint Mary’s as a seven-point underdog. UGA did cover second half bets (pick ‘em) after trailing by 13 at intermission. Yante Maten made 14-of-17 field goals in the Bulldogs’ opening-round home win over Belmont. But against the Gaels, he couldn’t throw it in the ocean, missing 16 of his 22 shots from the field. Mann and Gaines finished with 13 and 11 points, respectively. I offer both a hat tip to excellent careers in which they helped me to many winners along with J.J. Frazier, who is a junior and will return for Mark Fox’s program next season. Frazier had 13 points, seven assists and five boards against the Gaels, but he was only 5-of-15 from the field.