Sweet 16 Betting News and Notes

Tournament MOP Odds
VegasInsider.com

The NCAA Tournament field is down to the Sweet Sixteen with regional action taking placing this weekend from four different venues.

Prior to the NCAA Tournament starting, Sportsbook.ag posted odds on which player will capture the Most Outstanding Player award and Kansas guard Frank Mason was the co-favorite with Villanova's Josh Hart and North Carolina's Justin Jackson at 10/1 odds.

Opening Odds

Hart and the Wildcats were eliminated in the second round but Mason and Jackson are still considered contenders and have both have seen their odds drop to 15/2 (Bet $100 to win $750).

Listed below are the updated odds to win the award at Sportsbook.ag plus a number of future props for select schools.

Odds to win 2017 Mens NCAA Basketball Tournament Most Outstanding Player

Frank Mason III (Kansas) 15/2
Justin Jackson (North Carolina) 15/2
Allonzo Trier (Arizona) 8/1
Josh Jackson (Kansas) 8/1
Lauri Markkanen (Arizona) 10/1
Lonzo Ball (UCLA) 10/1
Nigel Williams-Goss (Gonzaga) 10/1
Malik Monk (Kentucky) 12/1
Joel Berry II (North Carolina) 15/1
Dillon Brooks (Oregon) 18/1
DeAaron Fox (Kentucky) 20/1
Derrick Walton Jr. (Michigan) 20/1
Przemek Karnowski (Gonzaga) 20/1
Bryce Alford (UCLA) 25/1
Caleb Swanigan (Purdue) 25/1
Devonte Graham (Kansas) 25/1
T.J. Leaf (UCLA) 25/1
Kennedy Meeks (North Carolina) 30/1
Ethan Happ (Wisconsin) 40/1
Jevon Carter (West Virginia) 40/1
Johnathan Motley (Baylor) 40/1
KeVaughn Allen (Florida) 40/1
Tyler Dorsey (Oregon) 40/1

Props - Will They Win the 2017 Mens NCAA Basketball Tournament?

Gonzaga
Yes 6/1
No 1/10

Kansas
Yes 15/4
No 1/5

North Carolina
Yes 9/2
No 2/13

Arizona
Yes 11/2
No 2/17

Kentucky
Yes 12/1
No 1/40

Oregon
Yes 20/1
No 1/100

UCLA
Yes 13/2
No 1/11

Five NCAA tournament betting trends to follow into the Sweet 16
By Ashton Grewal
Civers.com

The final whistle has blown on the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament and it’s only a four-day break until the action starts up again. Before looking to the Sweet 16 matchups, here’s a quick recap of the biggest betting storylines from the past weekend:

ACC set to cold

The Atlantic Coast Conference is to college basketball what the Southeastern Conference is to college football. That’s why it surprised no one the tournament committee placed more teams from the ACC (nine) than any other conference in the Big Dance.

Those nine teams went a collective 99-14 straight up and 52-38-1 against the spread in non-conference games this season (some of those games did not have odds). Those same teams went 7-8 SU and 2-13 ATS in the opening rounds of the tournament.

The North Carolina Tar Heels are the only team from the ACC remaining in the tournament and they needed a 12-0 run in the final four minutes to finish off Arkansas Sunday.

The Heels are co-favorites with Kansas to win the tournament (+450) but will have to beat Butler and the winner of Kentucky-UCLA just to make it to the Final Four.

Over the top

Many books and sports betting reporters detailed how Vegas and online books enjoyed a winning weekend from the betting public. One thing the books would like a do-over on are the totals for the opening rounds.

The Over went 23-9 in the Round of 64 thanks in large part to the results in the Midwest Region. The Over went 11-0-1 in Kansas’ region with an average of 155 points scored per game.

The four teams remaining in the Midwest are shooting a collective 42 percent from 3-point land and 51.8 percent from the field during the tournament. Oddsmakers set the Purdue-Kansas total at 156.5 the highest Over/Under number for the Boilermakers this season.

The Big 12 has also been a boon for Over bettors, with all 10 of the NCAA games involving Big 12 members going Over the total. Kansas, Baylor and West Virginia remain in the Big Dance with totals of 156.5, 137.5, and 148.5 respectively for their regional semifinal games.

Talk the chalk

The opening week of the NCAA tournament is known for some sizable pointspreads when top seeds take on those in the No. 13, No. 14 and No. 15 category. Double-digits favorites stumbled out of the block on the opening Thursday but righted the ship Friday, but the big betting chalk is just 6-9 ATS heading into the Sweet 16. Now that we're down to the tournament elite, bettors won't likely see another double-digit spread the rest of March.

They will, however, see plenty of slim spreads - like the lines bouncing around pick'em for matchups such as Michigan vs. Oregon and UCLA vs. Kentucky. Florida is also a small favorite against Wisconsin, current giving the Badgers two points. Favorites of 2.5 points or less are 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS so far in the Big Dance, covering 61.5 percent of the time.

Bad beats

Tom Petty said even the losers get lucky sometimes. Southern Cal and Oklahoma State backers must know what the front man from the Heartbreakers was talking about.

Both teams were on the fortuitous end of late-game garbage points. Oklahoma State trailed Michigan by four points with 3.7 seconds left to play. Oklahoma State guard Jawun Evans brought the ball up and launched a shot from at least four feet behind the 3-point arc.

The ball splashed through the net as time expired. Michigan players raised their arms in triumph while UM backers reached for their handkerchiefs.

Southern Cal was the comeback king in the first two rounds of the tournament and it looked like the Trojans were going to pull off another come-from-behind win against the 5.5-point favored Baylor Bears. The Trojans grabbed their first second-half lead when Chimezie Metu finished at the rim to make the score 65-63 with 6:13 left to play.

Baylor went on a 19-9 run and carried a 6-point lead into the final seconds. De’Anthony Melton missed an off-balance leaner from deep but the ball bounced softly to Metu. The big man used one hand and volleyed in an uncontested put-back. The buzzer-beating changed the score from 82-76 to 82-78, meaning the Bears failed to cover the 5.5-point spread.

But, for every bad beat there’s an amazing win. Let's hope you were on the positive - and profitable - side of these decisions.

Update on Outstanding Player

Duke wasn’t just the pre-tourney favorite to win the national championship. The team also boasted three of the Top 15 players with the shortest odds to win the Most Outstanding Player Award.

Duke’s ousting also means Luke Kennard (+800), Grayson Allen (+1200) and Jayson Tatum (+1600) are all no longer in contention for the honor.

The only other players to drop out who had odds before the tournament are Villanova’s Josh Hart (+1000), Louisville’s Donovan Mitchell (+2200), FSU’s Dwayne Bacon (+4000), Notre Dame’s Bonzi Colson (+6600), SMU’s Semi Ojeyele (+6600), Virginia’s London Perrantes (+6600) and Oklahoma State’s Jawan Evans (+20,000).

Sweet 16 Betting Angles
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

With the 2017 NCAA Tournament entering the SWEET 16 round, let's take a different perspective in analyzing the teams that have arrived.

This one pertains specifically to teams that are returning to the SWEET 16 for the 2nd straight year.

Do these experienced teams perform with aplomb or do they bomb? It all depends on the situation.

Let's take a peek.

ALL HANDS ON DECK

Unlike the last two years when half a dozen teams each returned to round of 32 this season, only five make a return visit this season. They include Gonzaga, Kansas, North Carolina, Oregon and Wisconsin.

According to our database, since 1992, teams making a right-back appearance in the SWEET 16 are 80-51 SU but only 58-70-3 ATS in this round of the tourney.

The cut-line, however, is often times the situation surrounding the game.

Check out the examples below.

NOT QUITE A 10

Looking at it from a varied perspective, SWEET 16 returnees seem to struggle when arriving off a win of less than 10 points, going just 33-27 SU and 23-35-2 ATS.

This year finds four of the five returnees, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Oregon and Wisconsin coming up short in the gene pool.

And making matters worse, if any of these sweet tomatoes sport a high profile public-loving win percentage of .790 or greater on the season they fall to 11-22-1 ATS.

Not particularly good news for the Zags, the Tar Heels, or the Ducks.

HOT DIGGETY DOG

One of the major roles Sweet 16 Returnees will respond to, however, is when they are cast into an underdog position.

Simply put, Sweet 16 Returnees cast into a Rodney Dangerfield lack of respect role of an underdog of 8 or less points are 16-11-1 ATS. That alone pulls Oregon and Wisconsin off the hook outlined above when they take on Michigan and Florida, respectively.

Better yet, if they are taking facing a sub .830 opponent in this role they win 62% of the time on the scoreboard, going 8-5 SU and 9-3-1 ATS.

Go Ducks!

SEEDY DEVELOPMENT

As expected, #1 and #2 seeds fare the best in Sweet 16 games as returnees, going 58-17 SU combined. To the spread, however, they are just 37-37-1 ATS, including 12-16-1 ATS as favorites of 6 or fewer points (read: Gonzaga and Kansas).

Meanwhile, the same Sweet 16 Returnee No. 1 and No. 2 seeds that are favored by 6 or fewer points are just 2-8-1 ATS in these games when taking on .800 or greater foes. Once again, this is not good news for the Zags or the Jayhawks.

Make no mistake, when it comes to handicapping teams in the SWEET 16, the winners will likely be the better-qualified teams that have 'been there-and-done that.'

Or those who know how to keep a ship afloat, if you know what I mean...

Sweet 16 Primer
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

The 2017 NCAA Tournament field has been dwindled down from 68 schools to 16 who are still dreaming of cutting the nets down in Phoenix.

Kansas, one of the three No. 1 seeds that advanced to their respective region semifinals, is listed as a 4/1 favorite to win the national title at Sportsbook.ag.

North Carolina has the second-shortest odds (+450, risk $100 to win $450).

However, UNC is the only ACC school with life. In a year the league earned nine NCAA bids and was mentioned by many as the best conference in college basketball history, it endured a disastrous first weekend.

Xavier beat FSU by 25 points in Orlando without its best player in uniform. Florida destroyed Virginia, limiting the Wahoos to just 39 points in a 26-point pimpslap. Michigan clipped Louisville, while West Virginia beat Notre Dame by 12.

Michigan trounced Miami by 20. Wisconsin took out Virginia Tech by double digits.

Surely Duke, fresh off its four-day run to win the ACC Tournament last weekend in Brooklyn, would be able to hang on to a seven-point halftime lead over South Carolina late Sunday night? Right?

Wrong. South Carolina dropped 65 points on Duke in the second half as UNC fans roared their approval inside Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, S.C. The Gamecocks are in the Sweet 16 for the first time in their program’s history after winning an 88-81 decision as seven-point underdogs. They hooked up money-line backers with a big +280 return.

When Frank Martin was hired away from Kansas State by (‘the other’) USC, I felt it was a home-run hire (and still do). However, I have been surprised it’s taken Martin this long to get to the NCAA Tournament. But the patience has paid off in Year 5 of the Martin’s Era in Columbia. It was his seniors – Sindarius Thornwell and Duane Notice – who were the difference against the Blue Devils, who committed a season-high 18 turnovers.

Thornwell bullied his way to 24 points, six rebounds and five assists, while Notice made 6-of-8 shots from the field, including 2-of-4 from downtown, on his way to a 17-point effort. Notice also had four rebounds and three steals. Chris Silva dominated the paint, producing 17 points, 10 boards and two blocked shots.

North Carolina nearly met the same fate as Duke hours earlier at the same venue. UNC had allowed a 17-point first-half lead get away to Arkansas, which was hunting its first Sweet 16 appearance since Nolan Richardson’s iconic tenure in Fayetteville.

The Razorbacks led 65-60 with less than three minutes remaining, but the Tar Heels closed the game on a 12-0 run to sneak into the Sweet 16 for the 35th time. Gamblers who were holding +800 money-line tickets on the Hogs were left immensely disappointed.

Wisconsin sent the defending champs out of the bracket. Like I said in my Bracket Analysis column on Selection Sunday, Jay Wright had to be miffed with a team like the Badgers being seeded eighth, especially since Villanova was the Tournament’s No. 1 overall seed. Minnesota was a No. 5 seed even though Wisconsin’s veteran-laden squad beat it twice, including a 66-49 spanking in Madison.

Greg Gard’s team captured a 65-62 win over Villanova thanks to multiple defensive stops in the final minute. The Badgers advance to the Madison Square Garden in New York City, where they’ll face Florida in a 4/8 matchup in Friday’s late game. The winner of Wisconsin-UF will get the winner of South Carolina vs. Baylor.

Most spots have the Gators favored by 1.5 or two points. Mike White’s first NCAA Tournament appearance has consisted of a pair of wins by double-digit margins. UF broke open a one-point halftime lead in the second half to put it on East Tennessee State, 80-65.

As previously noted, UVA went down next at the hands of Florida. UF is in the East Region semifinals despite the shooting woes of leading scorer KeVaughn Allen, who went 3-of-21 of the field and 1-for-13 from 3-point range in the first weekend. To his credit, though, he had five assists without a turnover and three steals.

Let’s also note that Allen liked MSG back in November when he dropped 21 points on Duke in a losing effort. Allen drained 8-of-12 shots, including 3-of-5 from long distance.

The other region semifinal in NYC will feature Baylor against South Carolina. Most spots have the Bears favored by 3.5 with the total in the 135-136 range.

(Quick Thought: If you took a look at any of my Tip Sheets for last week, you saw how I pointed out teams to which the ‘Fresh Legs Theory’ applied. This notion refers to teams who lose in the first game of their conference tournament, and therefore don’t extend energy galore the week beforehand. Three of the four teams in NYC (UF, S-Carolina and Baylor), in addition to Kansas, Butler and Purdue, all had ‘Fresh Legs.’ Rhode Island, a team that had to really to exert itself the prior week, ran out of gas in the Round of 32.)

Kentucky gives the SEC three teams in the Sweet 16. John Calipari’s team swatted away two straight Wichita State shots at winning time to survive with a 65-62 win, although the Shockers took the cash as 4.5-point underdogs.

UK will take on UCLA in a rematch of an early December game at Rupp Arena, where the Bruins won 97-92 as double-digit underdogs. These teams will meet in Memphis, where the Bruins were eliminated from the South Region semifinals by Florida three years ago.

As Steve Alford takes his team to the Sweet 16, Indiana’s interest in bringing back one of its most legendary players to IU will engulf the national headlines. Alford’s son Bryce is a senior, while freshmen Lonzo Ball and T.J. Leaf are guaranteed to be one-and-doners. Alford led IU to the school’s last national title in 1987 and was a four-time All Big Ten selection.

IU fired Tom Crean last week after nine up-and-down seasons. Alford is a Midwest guy from New Castle, Indiana, who has spent more than a decade in New Mexico and UCLA. He was on the hot seat coming into this year, while he was never really appreciated at UNM or Iowa. Like Roy Williams at Kansas being courted (again) by UNC in 2003 when the Jayhawks eventually lost in the finals to ‘Melo, McNamara and the ‘Cuse, this story won’t go away as long as the Bruins have a pulse.

The West Region semifinals will be contested in San Jose, where top-seeded Gonzaga will collide with West Virginia. The other matchup will be Arizona versus Xavier. The Wildcats pulled away from Saint Mary’s in the second half and covered as 4.5-point ‘chalk.’ Along with Gonzaga’s Mark Few, UA’s Sean Miller are looking to get their first Final Fours.

Gonzaga allowed an 18-point halftime lead to get trimmed to five late in the second half. In fact, Northwestern should have been given bucket from a goaltend that would’ve cut the deficit to three. The officials inexplicably failed to make the call, prompting Chris Collins to garner a technical foul. Instead of a three-point deficit with momentum galore on Northwestern’s side, the ‘Zags converted both free throws, extending their lead to seven and turning the mojo back their way.

Gonzaga would finish the deal to advance, but the Wildcats covered the spread as double-digit ‘dogs.

WVU hit all five of its 3-point launches in the second half to pull away for an 83-71 win over Notre Dame, denying the Fighting Irish a shot at getting to a third consecutive Elite Eight. The Mountaineers are three-point underdogs to Gonzaga, while ‘Zona is favored by 7.5 points against the Musketeers.

Purdue stopped Vermont, the team that brought the nation’s longest winning streak into the Tourney, in the Round of 64. Then the Boilermakers, who are in their first Sweet 16 in seven years, lost a 19-point lead to red-hot Iowa St, only to recover at crunch time and win an 80-76 decision as one-point ‘chalk.’

Matt Painter’s team will square off against top-seeded Kansas in the Midwest Region. KU got 14 of Josh Jackson’s 23 points in the second half to break open a tight game against Michigan State and win 90-70 in a misleading final score. The Jayhawks took the cash as eight-point favorites. KU will have a decided advantage over Purdue because it will be playing in Kansas City at the Sprint Center for the fifth time this year. Most spots have the Boilermakers installed as five-point underdogs.

The other game in KC will be Oregon vs. Michigan. The Wolverines are short favorites after dusting Oklahoma St and Louisville. Moritz Wagner scored 26 points against the Cardinals, while Derrick Walton tallied 10 points, seven rebounds and six assists without a turnover.

Let’s shift back to Memphis, where the UCLA-UK winner will get the survivor of UNC-Butler. Yes, the Bulldogs are in yet another Sweet 16 after sending Middle Tennessee home. The Tar Heels are favored by 7.5 points.

The rest of the future odds (remember, we noted KU and UNC at 4/1 and +450 earlier) look like this: Gonzaga (5/1), Arizona (+550), UCLA (7/1), UF (12/1), UK (12/1), Baylor (15/1), Oregon (15/1), Wisconsin (15/1), Michigan (18/1), WVU (18/1), Purdue (20/1), Butler (50/1), South Carolina (50/1) and Xavier (100/1).

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

LSU has hired Will Wade away from VCU. My first reaction: I like it. Wade has taken the Rams to back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances since taking over for Shaka Smart. VCU advanced to the Round of 32 last year and gave Oklahoma, a team that went to the Final Four, fits for 40 minutes. With that said, we’ll point out the LSU’s AD Joe Alleva paid big bucks to a search firm to do his job for him in terms of this coaching search.

Hat Tip to Nick Duncan, the heavy-set Aussie who saw his outstanding collegiate career end at Illinois on Monday night in the second round of the NIT. Duncan can play on my team any day. He was the heart and soul of Boise State’s teams over the last four years, two of which lost in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. Duncan drained 3’s, lots of ‘em for a big man. He dove for loose balls and took charges like it was his job – because it was. Duncan set vicious screens and rarely missed a box out. The Broncos will miss him.

UT-Arlington is in the NIT quarterfinals after easily handling BYU (in Provo!) and staying undefeated at home with last night’s win over Akron. The Mavericks, who are playing without their second-leading scorer, get to stay at home and host Cal State Bakersfield on Wednesday night for the right to go to MSG in NYC next week.

Sweet 16 Fast Facts
By Marc Lawrence
Covers.com

Best and Worst Team ATS records in the Sweet 16 round: Oregon 3-0… Gonzaga and Purdue 1-4… Kansas 5-10.

More Sweet 16 Fast Facts
Best and Worst Conference ATS records in the Sweet 16 round: Big East 5-1 as dogs… Big 12 0-5 as dogs… West Coast 1-4… PAC-12 3-11… Big Ten 2-7 as dogs.

Sweet 16 Team Seed Facts
Best and Worst Team team seed records in the Sweet 16 round: No. 1 seeds off BB SUATS wins are 20-8 ATS (Kansas)… No. 2 seeds favored by 11 or less points (Arizona) are 4-1-1 ATS… No. 3 seeds (Oregon) are 2-8 ATS the last four years… No. 4 seeds (Purdue and West Va) are 2-6 ATS the last three years.

Coaches Best Sweet 16 ATS Records
Best and Worst records of coaches in the Sweet 16 round: John Beilein (Michigan) 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS… Bill Self (Kansas (8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS)… Chris Mack (Xavier) 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS… Sean Miller (Arizona) 4-2 SUATS… Matt Painter (Purdue) 0-2 SUATS… Mark Few (Gonzaga) 1-4 SUATS.

Best and Worst Team ATS records in the Sweet 16 round: Kentucky 6-0… Butler… UCLA 1-8.

Sweet 16 Fast Facts
Best and Worst Conference ATS records in the Sweet 16 round: SEC 7-2-1… Big East 5-1 as dogs… Big 12 0-5 as dogs.

Team Seed Facts
Best and Worst Team team seed records in the Sweet 16 round: No. 3 seeds (Baylor and UCLA) are 2-8 ATS the last four years… No. 4 seeds (Butler and Florida) are 2-6 ATS the last three years. No. 7 seeds (South Carolina) are 0-3 ATS as dogs of 3 or more points… No. 8 seeds (Wisconsin) are 3-1 ATS… No. 10 or worse seeds (Xavier) are 8-2 ATS the last six years.

Coaches Best Sweet 16 ATS Records
Best and Worst records of coaches in the Sweet 16 round: John Calipari (Kentucky ) 10-2 SUATS… Steve Alford (UCLA) 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS.