Sweet 16 Trends

Thursday, March 28th

SYRACUSE (28 - 9) vs. INDIANA (28 - 6) - 3/28/2013, 10:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
SYRACUSE is 70-97 ATS (-36.7 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.
INDIANA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MARQUETTE (25 - 8) vs. MIAMI (28 - 6) - 3/28/2013, 10:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

ARIZONA (27 - 7) vs. OHIO ST (27 - 7) - 3/28/2013, 10:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
OHIO ST is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
OHIO ST is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in March games this season.
OHIO ST is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OHIO ST is 132-95 ATS (+27.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
ARIZONA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

LASALLE (23 - 9) vs. WICHITA ST (28 - 8) - 3/28/2013, 10:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Friday, March 29th

OREGON (28 - 8) vs. LOUISVILLE (31 - 5) - 3/29/2013, 10:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
LOUISVILLE is 22-14 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 22-14 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 35-24 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in March games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
LOUISVILLE is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a NCAA tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOUISVILLE is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MICHIGAN ST (27 - 8) vs. DUKE (28 - 5) - 3/29/2013, 10:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 2-0 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

MICHIGAN (28 - 7) vs. KANSAS (30 - 5) - 3/29/2013, 10:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games this season.
KANSAS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
MICHIGAN is 56-38 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 56-38 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
MICHIGAN is 47-30 ATS (+14.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS is 1-0 straight up against MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

FLA GULF COAST (25 - 10) vs. FLORIDA (27 - 7) - 3/29/2013, 10:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Syracuse vs. Indiana
Syracuse: 1-7 ATS away playing thier second game in seven days
Indiana: 14-5 ATS after allowing 55 points or less

Marquette vs. Miami FL
Marquette: 2-9 ATS away after winning 4 of their last 5 games
Miami FL: 16-6 ATS after playing as a favorite

Arizona vs. Ohio State
Arizona: 15-6 ATS as an underdog
Ohio State: 3-11 ATS after having 5 or less offensive rebounds

La Salle vs. Wichita State
La Salle: 0-6 ATS off 3+ ATS wins
Wichita State: 14-4 ATS off BB Overs

Oregon vs. Louisville
Oregon: 1-7 ATS after playing as an underdog
Louisvile: 8-0 ATS in March

Michigan State vs. Duke
Michigan State: 14-5 ATS away off an ATS win
Duke: 1-8 ATS after having 9 or less assists

Michigan vs. Kansas
Michigan: 7-1 ATS in tournament games
Kansas: 11-1 Under in NCAA Tournament games

Florida Gulf Coast vs. Florida
FL Gulf Coast: 7-0 ATS as an underdog
Florida: 5-13 ATS off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games

Stat Profiles for the Sweet Sixteen
Statintelligence.blogspot.com

Here are the numbers we’ve been following through the Dance in tip-off order by locale. Note that I’ve updated the pace rankings from Kenpom’s website…those are the numbers as of Tuesday evening. All the other numbers you see are CONFERENCE ONLY per game averages because I wanted to take out the crazy extremes of non-conference schedules, particularly since those games were played so long ago anyway. The “conference advantage” numbers from Jeff Sagarin’s computer ratings were also tabulated Tuesday night.

Some reference points.

The typical college defense allowed about 47.5% on two-pointers this year. Numbers less than that represent better than average inside defense. The typical offense made 6.0 treys per game. Interestingly, NONE of the 16 teams left averaged between 6.0 and 6.9 in their league games. We have quite a few trey-heavy teams at 7.0 makes or more. I’m surprised by how many teams were in the low 5’s or less. Always respect the “they can win without needing treys” teams.

*10 of 16 remaining defenses held conferences opponents to 45% or less on deuces

*13 of 16 remaining teams had positive rebounding differentials in conference play

*13 of 16 remaining teams had even or positive turnover differentials in conference play

Thursday in Washington

Marquette: 45% two-point defense, +4.1 rebounding, -1.0 TO’S, 4.3 treys, #216 full season pace

Miami: 44% two-point defense, +4.1 rebounding, +0.2 TO’S, 7.1 treys, #287 full season pace

(Sagarin’s Conference Advantage: Marquette by 1.0)

Some similarities there. Those break down when Miami shows better in both turnovers and treys…with a meaningful edge in treys because 7.1 in a slow game is loud. Those two categories are why Miami is the favorite. Neither team looked particularly dynamic in Round of 32 survivals. And, Marquette needed a miracle to beat Davidson before that. Miami struck me as very well-rounded in a first look vs. Pacific. There were outrebounded by Illinois though, and many will note friendly officiating helped them sneak through. Illinois didn’t even try its first free throw until deep into the second half. We all know about the late blown call. Miami’s name is still in the hat. They need to make those 7-8 treys to scare people I’m afraid.

Reggie Johnson will be out for Miami. We called him “that huge #42.” He looks like he should be a big impact player. But, he wasn’t really. He was clumsy with the ball, and was prone to really dumb reaching fouls. He only took 1 shot in 18 minutes vs. Illinois. He committed 4 turnovers vs. weak Pacific in 24 minutes on Friday. The Don Best website tweeted out that Kenny White said Johnson was worth 1.5 points in the line. Hard to see for a guy who averaged 21.3 minutes per game and 6.7 points. If the refs call a lot of fouls, the team might miss the minutes. But…he wasn’t a guy they relied on for anything meaningful last weekend.

Syracuse: 44% two-point defense, +0.7 rebounding, +2.9 TO’S, 5.1 treys, #224 full season pace

Indiana: 45% two-point defense, +4.3 rebounding, +0.3 TO’S, 7.2 treys, #109 full season pace

(Sagarin’s Conference Advantage: Indiana by 2.1)

Really looking forward to seeing how Indiana deals with the Syracuse zone. The Indiana guards can get sloppy when things get tense…and Syracuse lives off turnovers. It’s funny that Syracuse only averaged 5.1 made treys per game in league action because that’s all they could do for points in the Big East tournament. They fall back to 4 of 10 vs. California, and lost the ball 15 times. You have to assume Indiana is going to own the boards. Can they avoid turnovers and shoot over the zone successfully? Was extremely underwhelmed by what they did vs. Temple on Sunday…and in their Big 10 tourney loss to Wisconsin. I had totally given up on Syracuse until they shot lights out on bombs in the Garden. Fickle category.

Thursday in Los Angeles

Arizona: 46% two-point defense, +3.7 rebounding, +0.8 TO’S, 7.3 treys, #131 full season pace

Ohio St.: 45% two-point defense, +1.3 rebounding, +1.0 TO’S, 4.9 treys, #222 full season pace

(Sagarin’s Conference Advantage: Ohio State by 4.1)

Arizona was extremely overrated through Pac 12 play…then drew Belmont and Harvard in an incredibly fortunate draw. The problem with fading them is that Ohio State typically disappoints in these deeper rounds. They almost got nailed by Iowa State’s trey barrage early Sunday. I’m very surprised they lost rebounding 35-20 in that one. We’re about to learn about the Big 10 in these testers for Indiana and Ohio State. Much of why they’re favored is based on conference respect. I guess I’m skeptical of Arizona…but they’re certainly not worse than a Temple/Iowa State composite that almost beat Indiana/Ohio State a few days ago.

LaSalle: 52% two-point defense, -3.1 rebounding, +3.1 TO’S, 7.2 treys, #177 full season pace

Wichita St.: 45% two-point defense, +8.0 rebounding, even TO’S, 7.2 treys, #210 full season pace

(Sagarin’s Conference Advantage: LaSalle by 0.8)

LaSalle wins with guards…which means they play horrible inside defense and get killed on the boards…so they try to beat you with turnovers, treys, and cheap points off their speed. This is where a major conference giant is supposed to end their run. Instead, they get a mid-major giant-killer in Wichita State. I made a big deal about Wichita State going 14 of 26 on treys to take out Gonzaga. Can’t forget that they did hold Gonzaga to 36% on two-point shooting while outrebounding the top seed 27-26. Respect LaSalle’s speed and Wichita’s defense/rebounding combo. Just not seeing a lot of things that would get me excited from a market perspective.

Friday in Indianapolis

Oregon: 47% two-point defense, +3.3 rebounding, +0.1 TO’S, 4.3 treys, #48 full season pace

Louisville: 41% two-point defense, +2.9 rebounding, +4.3 TO’S, 4.9 treys, #119 full season pace

(Sagarin’s Conference Advantage: Louisville by 2.0)

Louisville’s defense is so amazing. Some teams focus on inside play. Some teams forfeit the inside while focusing on turnovers. Louisville does BOTH at a very high level. It’s going to take a special team, or a special one-night performance from a dog to take them out. The line here is a high -10. But, points are cheaper at fast paces…and this one should be a sprint given how Oregon likes to run and Louisville is pretty fast for a great team. I’ve gone from thinking “Only an idiot would lay 10 points in a Sweet 16 game” to “Man, Louisville can pretty much name the score here.”

Oregon’s two-point defense is a weak point. They’re not likely to hit a bunch of treys given that low average and the fact that the lows of math will frown on that 8 of 11 in the last game. These are Louisville’s recent neutral court scores vs. decent opposition…

Louisville 74, Villanova 55

Louisville 69, Notre Dame 57

Louisville 78, Syracuse 61

Louisville 82, Colorado State 56

How does Oregon compare to that composite of opposition? Are they obviously meaningfully superior? Maybe a smidge. Louisville won by 19, 12, 17, and 26.

The total has steamed from 127.5 to 129 thanks to sharps who know that Oregon’s faster than the teams who just played to 129, 126, 139, and 138. Could see the Over. Could see Louisville Over its team total of 69.5. Could see Louisville. The Cards are overdue to lay an egg. It’s harder to lay an egg with a great defense because defense doesn’t slump. Look at the consistency above of 55-57-61-56.

Mich. State: 48% two-point defense, +4.3 rebounding, -0.3 TO’S, 5.3 treys, #253 full season pace

Duke: 49% two-point defense, -2.0 rebounding, +3.3 TO’S, 8.1 treys, #92 full season pace

(Sagarin’s Conference Advantage: Michigan State by 3.1)

You regular readers of the blog know I’d like Michigan State here. I’m anti-Duke in playoff style basketball because of their traditionally soft two-point defense, soft rebounding, and over-reliance on treys. They lucked into facing Creighton in the last round, who’s even crappier on two-point defense after you make a conference adjustment…and even more reliant on treys.

If you’re new to the blog, it won’t be apparent from those numbers why I’d support Michigan State. So far, Michigan State has been playing better than that 48% two-point defense would suggest. You know they tend to peak at the right time (Memphis was 14 of 44 on deuces for 32%). Though, they may have gotten a boost from playing in Auburn Hills that created illusions about their championship readiness. Well, that and Memphis may have been more like a bubble-caliber team that the dangerous #6 that many in the media had hallucinated. Duke will need to make a run at 8-10 treys to win, which is normally something you say about a dog instead of a small favorite.

Duke’s Recent Sweet 16 Games

*Last Year, couldn’t make it past Lehigh in the first round

*2011, Duke (-9) lost to Arizona 93-77 (which Barkley called when Duke led at half)

*2010, Duke (-8) beat Purdue 70-57 on way to title

*2009, Duke (-2.5) lost to Villanova 77-54

*2008, barely beat Belmont in opener before losing to West Virginia before Sweet 16

*2007, couldn’t make it past VCU in first round

*2006, Duke (-5) lost to LSU 62-54

*2005, Duke (-4) lost to Michigan State 78-68

Since March of 2005, they didn’t reach the Sweet 16 three times, and then went 1-4 straight up as favorites, with their spread misses coming by 25, 25.5, 13, and 14 points.

Even though the whole world watched this happen…this string of relative disasters for a high profile team that’s almost always favored has gone largely un-dwelled upon by the national media (or the markets). When the Wall Street Journal did that study on whether or not Dick Vitale was biased about Duke, they missed the whole point of viewers’ frustrations. Vitale, and many others in the media, are constantly raving about how fantastic Duke is even though the team is continually being exposed as pretenders once it comes time to play high quality teams on neutral courts in front of neutral officials. The fact that they ran the table one year in the last eight doesn’t erase what we saw in those other seven Dances. They lost by 16 and 23 to UNDERDOGS Arizona and Villanova.

Maybe they’ll win tonight and run the table again. In recent years, the team has been more “built” for November basketball rather than March basketball, which continually leads to them being overseeded. We’ll see.

Friday in Arlington

Michigan: 48% two-point defense, -1.1 rebounding, +2.9 TO’S, 7.0 treys, #228 full season pace

Kansas: 40% two-point defense, +6.6 rebounding, -1.3 TO’S, 5.6 treys, #90 full season pace

(Sagarin’s Conference Advantage: Michigan by 3.8)

Kansas plays big boy basketball, guarding the basket and grabbing rebounds. They don’t force turnovers and can’t be counted on for treys. They can be as bad as they looked vs. Western Kentucky, or as great as they looked in the second half vs. North Carolina with little or no warning. Michigan is surprisingly soft at big boy basketball. Nothing here would surprise me. Can’t trust the Big 12 after a truly dismal Dance showing outside of Iowa State’s trey barrage vs. Ohio State and that second Kansas half vs. NC. Though, the fact that this game is being played in a cavernous football dome could help the big boy team. Hate asking guard teams to win in their first game in a dome. I guess I’m saying the raw stats are pointing to Kansas…the environment probably is too…but the difference between conferences may be such that you can’t trust the Jayhawks.

Fla G-Coast: 45% two-point defense, +1.2 rebounding, +1.7 TO’S, 7.4 treys, #39 full season pace

Florida: 43% two-point defense, +2.1 rebounding, +3.1 TO’S, 8.8 treys, #302 full season pace

(Sagarin’s Conference Advantage: Florida by 11.7)

What do you make of Florida-Gulf Coast? Usually Cinderella’s coach has turned into a pumpkin by now for this kind of team. I think they’re going to have trouble pulling off “Dunk City” against a 43% two-point defense from a major conference. I think they’re likely to be in awe of the surroundings at Cowboys stadium more than they would have been at a basketball arena. They’re not going to catch this opponent napping. Billy Donovan tends to keep his players focus in the Dance. And, if Florida can impose its preferred very slow pace on proceedings…then Gulf Coast’s inside defense is likely to break down.

So…it would be fun if FGC kept it going. I’m skeptical they can pull it off in this particular matchup. Maybe if they were playing LaSalle, or if they caught Kansas on an arrogant night. I think Florida makes some sense at the first half price (does a weird backdrop affect the passing eye on alley-oops?). Or, if FGC played a great first half I’d look at Florida in the second half. Maybe FGC Under its team total of 60 makes sense too. Florida’s allowed 57.2 on average in its five neutral site postseason games vs. teams better than or comparable to FGC. Those weren’t in football domes either.

Sweet 16 Injuries and March Madness Betting Angles
Atssportsline.com

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The Sweet 16 is here and we're ready to deliver you more sports resources in college basketball betting. ATS Sportsline offers all the important angles, trends and injuries for March Madness. In other words, angles and trends can be helpful to the handicapper. You also get logs to keep you ahead of the college basketball odds.

Click for the latest March Madness odds, and get out your 2013 March Madness Bracket.

Let's take a look at some of the angles and trends for the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament in rotation order. Click for betting advice on March Madness? And start winning today

Syracuse vs. Indiana

Key Trends

Syracuse is:
1-7 ATS away playing their second game in seven days.
8-3 ATS last 11 non-conference games.
1-4 ATS last 5 vs. Big 10
2-5 ATS last 7 NCAA Tournament games.
11-5 last 16 matchups on the over bet on Thursday.

Indiana is:
14-5 ATS after allowing 55 points or less.
5-1 ATS last 6 Thursday games.
16-6-1 ATS last 23 non-conference games.
1-4 ATS last 5 following a SU win.
7-18-2 ATS last 27 neutral site games.

Key injuries:

Syracuse: none

Indiana: G Jordan Hulls (shoulder) is probable.

Marquette vs. Miami-Florida

Key Betting Trends

Marquette is:
0-4 ATS last 4 Thursday games.
2-6 last 8 matchups on the under bet NCAA Tournament.

Miami-Florida
22-8 ATS last 30 Thursday games.
19-7-1 ATS last 27 following a SU win.
10-4 ATS last 14 following an ATS loss.
16-6 ATS last 22 after playing as a favorite.
4-13 last 17 matchups on the under bet on Thursday

Key injuries:

Marquette: none

Miami-Florida Center Reggie Johnson (knee) is out.

Arizona vs. Ohio State

Key Betting Trends

Arizona is:
15-6 ATS last 21 as a dog.
5-0 ATS last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
9-3 ATS last 12 non-conference games.
12-5 ATS last 17 following a SU win of more than 20 points.
1-8-1 last 10 matchups on the under bet in non-conference games.

Ohio State is:
6-1 ATS last 7 overall.
6-1 ATS last 7 following a SU win.
6-2 ATS last 8 following an ATS loss.
12-5 last 17 matchups on the over bet following an ATS loss.

Key injuries:

Arizona: Forward Grant Jerrett (elbow) is probable.

Ohio State: none.

La Salle vs. Wichita State

Key Betting Trends

La Salle is:
6-1-1 ATS last 8 neutral site games.
6-2 ATS last 8 overall.
0-6 ATS off 3+ ATS wins.
10-3 last 13 matchups on the over bet on neutral sites.

Wichita State is:
14-4 ATS off BB overs.
7-3 ATS last 10 non-conference games.
1-5 ATS last 6 Thursday games.
3-9 last 12 matchups on the under bet following a SU win.

Key injuries:

La Salle: Center Steve Zack (foot) is out indefinitely.

Wichita State: none.

Oregon vs. Louisville

Key Betting Trends:
Oregon is:
4-0 ATS last 4 following a SU win.
18-7-1 ATS last 26 following an ATS win.
1-7 ATS after playing as a dog.
1-5 last 6 matchups on the under bet on Friday.

Louisville is:
8-0 ATS last 8 in March.
7-0 ATS last 7 NCAA Tournament games.
6-2 ATS last 8 non-conference games.
20-7 ATS last 27 neutral site games.
6-0 last 6 matchups on the over bet overall.
6-13 last 19 matchups on the under bet on Friday.

Key injuries: Oregon: Forward Carlos Emory (wrist) is probable.

Louisville: none.

Michigan State vs. Duke

Key Betting Trends:

Michigan State is:
14-5 ATS last 19 away off an ATS win.
7-3 ATS last 10 Friday games.
6-16-1 ATS last 23 following a SU win of more than 20 points.
9-4 last 13 matchups on the over bet following an ATS win.

Duke is:
7-2 ATS last 9 neutral site games.
1-5 ATS last 6 Friday games.
1-4 ATS last 5 NCAA Tournament games.

Key injuries:

Michigan State: Guard Keith Appling (shoulder) is probable.

Duke: none.

Michigan vs. Kansas

Key Betting Trends:

Michigan is:
7-1 ATS last 8 tournament games.
5-0 ATS last 5 vs. Big 12.
4-10 ATS last 14 overall.
1-4 ATS last 5 following a SU win.
15-7-1 last 23 matchups on the over bet in non-conference games.

Kansas is:
11-2 ATS last 13 overall.
4-12 ATS last 16 vs. Big Ten.
9-2 ATS last 11 following a SU win.
4-11 last 15 matchups on the under bet vs. Big 10.
1-11 last 12 matchups on the under bet in NCAA Tournament games.

Key injuries:

Michigan: none.

Kansas: Forward Justin Wesley (ankle) is doubtful.

Florida Gulf Coast vs. Florida

Key Betting Trends:

Florida Gulf Coast is:
7-0 ATS last 7 as an underdog.
4-0 ATS last 4 Friday games.
13-3 ATS last 16 overall.
8-0 ATS last 8 following a SU win.
4-0 last 4 matchups on the over bet in non-conference games.

Florida is:
5-13 ATS last 18 off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games.
18-5 ATS last 23 NCAA Tournament games.
14-6 ATS last 20 following an ATS win.

Key injuries:

Florida Gulf Coast: none.

Florida: none.