Taking a look at Over and Under teams
By Andrew Lange
Sportsmemo.com
A quick glance at teams that have trended over and under the total thus far and whether or not it will continue.
UNDER TEAMS
Virginia (1-5 O/U) - After being lined 123 against TCU and the game landing 114 back in mid-November, UVA's game have routinely been in the 113-118 price range. The capabilities of opposing offenses will improve once ACC play starts but the Cavaliers play great defense and are more than comfortable playing games with 60 possessions or fewer.
Kansas (1-6 O/U) - Bill Self noted earlier this week that the Jayhawks are going to be forced to win a lot of "ugly games" due to a drop-off in offensive talent. They went flying over the total last time out against Long Beach (145.5, 88-80 final) but the fact remains that KU is relying more on defense and no longer has as much scoring punch.
UConn (1-4 O/U) - The Huskies only "over" came in overtime against Florida State. There would have been some more overs had the games been lined. This small trend seems to be random as UConn is playing at a fairly normal pace and looking to run when given the opportunity.
Michigan State (1-5 O/U) - Every year we hear Tom Izzo say he wants his team to run more but it has been hit or miss. A lot of their unders have had to do with weak competition or teams that like to play slow. The last two times out, in non-lined games, we've seen the Spartans pop for 110 and 89. And six of their nine games have featured 70 or more possessions. Still, I don't expect Izzo to change his philosophy of strong defense and moderate pace in the long run. Especially when the games start to mean more in Big Ten play.
Wisconsin (1-4 O/U) - The Badgers were actually an "over" team in Big Ten play last year, especially at home (7-2 O/U). I've pointed to the soft rims in the Kohl Center as one reason. The other was free throw shooting. The Badgers got to the line and knocked them down at over an 80% rate. This year, the team is shooting 66%. Add in some dominating defensive performances against weaker foes and the Badgers are back to being a strong "under" team.
Kentucky (1-5 O/U) - Even the sharpest of bettors sometimes fail to recognize that despite all of their offensive talent, the Wildcats have always been a defense-first team under Calipari. They are playing much faster with five of their eight games topping 73 possessions but their totals are still 5-7 points higher than they should be.
Wyoming (1-5 O/U) - First-year head coach Larry Shyatt said in the preseason that the Cowboys would run and gun. That hasn't been the case. In fact, Shyatt recently came out and said his team isn't ready for that style of play. They've been relying on good defense and mediocre offense thus far but the level of competition has been extremely weak. They've also played all but one of their games in Laramie. Not sure what to do with this team but I would expect the defensive numbers will correct themselves once they start playing halfway decent foes.
Louisville (1-4 O/U) - Injuries and lack have depth have forced the Cardinals to play at a slower pace. Not a team that can afford to trade baskets against comparable foes at this point. Having Peyton Siva back helps the offense but for right now, Pinto seems comfortable grinding out victories.
OVER TEAMS
NC State (6-1 O/U) - First-year head coach Mark Gottfried is back to his roll-the-ball-out-and-play ways. The Wolfpack have offensive weapons and can't stop good offenses – a perfect storm for overs. Vanderbilt, Texas, Indiana and Stanford averaged 80.5 ppg. Expect that to continue.
Temple (5-1 O/U) - With big man Micheal Eric out with a knee injury, the Owls have gone the up-tempo route. The market however has been keen to the change in philosophy. Their game against Toledo was at one point bet up to 140 (landed 135). Had it been played in early November, it would have been in the 125 range. They'll continue to push the pace without Eric but it has been built into their lines.
Weber State (4-0 O/U) - The Wildcats have always played at a decent pace but with the team's best defender, Kyle Bullinger, currently out, the defense is really lacking. St. Mary's sprang for 87 (w/ Bullinger) and BYU nearly hung 100. Perhaps a situation where we'll have value on the under when Bullinger returns and they start to play the weaker offenses of the Big Sky.
Michigan (5-1 O/U) - Head coach John Beilein's offense takes a while to fully understand, but with more talent and experience, the Wolverines are starting to avoid those long droughts. Still playing at a slow pace but a team that should be lined in the high 120's, low 130's in Big Ten play as oppose to last year's 115-120 range.
Washington (5-1 O/U) – UW’s offense is just as good as it was last year but the defense is a click down. UW is usually a decent defensive team at home, but allowed nearly 70 ppg against questionable competition. Amazing that the team's 61.2% free throw shooting (opponents 61.9%) hasn't keep more of their games under the total.