Taking a look at the money burners
By Andrew Lange
Sportsmemo.com
Taking a look at a handful of college basketball teams that have been “money burners” thus far. Most of these teams can continue to be bet against as the oddsmakers and market have been slow to catch up. Keep in mind though that those with new personnel will eventually become more adjusted as coaches work to create the right player rotation. When that happens, teams can flip the switch from “money burners” to “money earners”.
Texas Tech (0-4 ATS, Next Game: 11/27 vs. Wake Forest) - Hiring Billy Gillispie was a good move -- for the long term. Pat Knight didn't leave much in terms of talent and the bad habits that plagued the Red Raiders during Knight's tenure are still present. The fact that Tech is an underdog to Wake Forest on a neutral court tells you just how sour oddmakers and the market currently are. They'll be catching plenty of points once Big XII play starts.
Texas (0-3 ATS, Next Game: 11/29 vs. North Texas) - Usually the market doesn't take too kindly to teams returning less than two starters but the Longhorns were given the benefit of the doubt with a strong group of recruits ready to step in. Last year's teams was one of the nation's best defensively but they've changed their identity some as a majority of their games have been of the up-tempo variety.
Nevada (3-2 ATS, Next Game: 12/2 vs. Washington) - Yesterday's "cover" against Bradley was questionable as the Wolf Pack opened -5.5 and won by five. Earlier bettors were able to at worst push as huge steam pushed the line down to -4 right before tip-off. The reason? Nevada is a dumb basketball team. They were outclassed against Missouri and BYU and barely beat non-boarded Longwood by two at home (Longwood lost to Navy by eight at home). The Wolf Pack then beat Prairie View A&M, another non-boarded team, by 13. A&M lost to BYU by 39. The betting markets seemed to have figured out that this team can't be trusted laying any type of price.
Rutgers (0-4 ATS, Next Game: 11/28 vs. Maryland-Baltimore) - A lot of hype heading into the season but so far, things look very similar to last year as the offense remains suspect. Here is a very telling stat as to why the Scarlet Knights have yet to cover a game: In four lined contests, opponents shot 73-of-99 from the free throw line while Rutgers shot 37-of-65. Not only is Rutgers foul prone (a sign of poor defense) but not being able to knock down free throws (0-for-6 vs. Miami) is a deal breaker.
UAB (0-4 ATS, Next Game: 11/27 vs. UT-Martin) - The Blazers lost a lot of talent from last year and while I like Mike Davis and his defense-first philosophy, this team will continue to struggle. The schedule thus far wasn't easy either as they faced some solid teams in Creighton, Murray State and Wichita State. Two of those losses came at home however -- a red flag of sorts considering the strong advantage Bartow Arena has provided over the years.
Detroit (0-4-1 ATS, Next Game: 12/1 vs. Youngstown State) - I could spend hours writing about how frustrating the Titans have been. The talent is there and last year, they proved they could utilize that talent with a 10-8 mark in Horizon play. They looked strong in their season opener against Notre Dame; a six-point loss and a pointspread cover for most bettors. But since then, it has been one disaster after the next. An inexperienced George Washington team shot 55% from the floor in a 13-point win. A mediocre Bowling Green team took over in the second half and went on to win by six. And despite a 13-point halftime lead over struggling Austin Peay, the Titans need overtime to win by one -- another burnt ticket. Yesterday, bettors were apparently trying to get their money back but it didn’t matter as Akron cruised to a 81-63 win as relatively cheap 4.5-point favorites. In their last four lined games, Detroit committed 68 turnovers. This team is not well coached and cannot be trusted laying points. I've learned my lesson with this group.
UCLA (1-4 ATS, Next Game: 11/28 vs. Pepperdine) - Everyone knew about UCLA's struggles (see: losses to Loyola Marymount and Middle Tennessee) but oddsmakers didn’t make enough adjustment as the Bruins were manhandled in both Maui games against Kansas and Michigan. It all started with Reeves Nelson's mysterious suspension. As for on the court, it is clear this team cannot score on a consistent basis. Note that their only spread cover came against Chaminade -- a two-point game at halftime. These types of struggles are nothing new. Last year, the Bruins lost to Montana at home and squeaked by UC Irvine and UC Davis. They did however go on to win 22 games and finish 13-5 in the PAC-10. I respect Howland, but I just don't see that type of turnaround anytime soon.