Taking a look at the money earners
By Andrew Lange
Sportsmemo.com
On Sunday, I discussed some of college basketball’s early season “money burners”. Let’s take a look at those who are cashing tickets at a high rate and see whether or not the good fortune will last.
Saint Louis (5-1 ATS, Next Game: 11/29 at Loyola Marymount) - The Bilikens took their lumps last season with a youthful roster and various suspensions/injuries. The results thus far are real with convincing wins over Washington, Villanova and Oklahoma. It will be interesting to see whether or not they can maintain their intensity and handle the hype – especially with an easy December and inflated numbers – prior to A-10 play. Check out this slate of opponents: Loyola Marymount, Portland, Vermont, Illinois-Springfield, Alabama State, Arkansas State and Texas Southern. That should be seven wins before traveling to New Mexico on December 31.
Duquesne (4-1 ATS, Next Game: 11/30 vs. Pittsburgh) - The Dukes have shown no signs of missing Bill Clark (16.2 ppg) and Damian Saunders (12.6 ppg). Once again this team can put points on the board while also playing just enough defense to get by.
St. Joe's (5-1 ATS, Next Game: 11/30 vs. Drexel) - Like Saint Louis, the Hawks took their lumps last year (329th in experience) but Phil Martelli noted in the preseason this was one of his most talented teams. Last year, St. Joe's started 5-17 but finished 6-5. During that last stretch, we saw this team start to come together and it has carried over to this season. The biggest thing I notice is the offense is much more efficient.
La Salle (4-1 ATS, Next Game: 11/30 vs. Northeastern) - Addition by subtraction as the Explorer got rid of ultra-talented, ultra-slacker Aaric Murray. No marquee victories but they've battled every night. Last year, this team was extremely frustrating with enough talent to compete with anyone but stretches of stupid play that cost them more than a handful of pointspread covers.
Georgetown (4-0 ATS, Next Game: 11/28 vs. IUPUI) - The Hoyas showed well at Maui with an overtime win over Memphis and pointspread covering loss against Kansas. Still too early to tell whether or not this team will be a consistent earner.
DePaul (3-0 ATS, Next Game: 12/1 vs. Ole Miss) - The Blue Demons got the perfect schedule to open the year: two softies, followed with a juicy +9.5 vs. an overrated Minnesota squad, and then two lower-tier power conference foes in Texas Tech and Arizona State. Oliver Purnell is a pretty good coach and has slightly more to work with this season. We'll see how they handle the success and the role of a favorite over the next few weeks.
Eastern Washington (4-0 ATS, Next Game: 11/30 at Idaho) - The Eagles fit the perfect profile of an early season "bet on" team. They got rid of their head coach, took a shot with a former DIII coach who is an offensive wiz, and returned a ton experience. They hung with both Gonzaga and Oregon but perhaps their most impressive win was a 15-point road triumph at Hawaii. No reason to stop supporting this team.
Valparaiso (4-1 ATS, Next Game: 12/3 at Butler) - The Crusaders lost of a lot of last year's production as well as longtime head coach Homer Drew but they've already posted two impressive wins over Akron and Duquesne. They were however hammered by 33 at Ohio State and a quick look at their Ken Pom page shows the defense hasn't been very good (285th in effective FG% defense).
Harvard (4-0 ATS, Next Game: 12/1 at Vermont) - A lot of experience back after last season's disappointing finish in which the Crimson dominated league play but lost to Princeton in the conference tournament. Right off the bat we saw this team favored at Loyola Marymount (won by 10). After destroying Utah by 28, they proved they could step up in class with a win over Florida State and added to it with a 10-point win over Central Florida. Keep an eye on them as an underdog for their trip to Storrs to face UConn on December 8.
Wyoming (4-1 ATS, Next Game: 11/30 vs. Utah Valley) - First-year head coach Larry Shyatt has made an obvious difference as the Cowboys have actually decided to defend the opposition. The schedule though has been extremely soft and they lost their only road trip to Wisconsin-Green Bay. Despite the hot start, I see a red flag with the Cowboys averaging only 0.97 points per possession – they jack a lot of bad shots. Perhaps a "bet against" with road trips to Colorado and Denver over the next three weeks.
Tennessee (5-0 ATS, Next Game: 11/28 vs. Oakland) - I respect Bruce Pearl but Cuonzo Martin is just as good a coach with the potential to be much better. They aren't exactly playing the type of game I expected under Martin but I see plenty of "little things" that point towards continued success. Forward Jeronne Maymon is a load down low and Martin is content to play virtually his entire bench in order to figure out exactly what he has to work with moving forward.
Middle Tennessee (6-0 ATS, Next Game: 12/1 at Tennessee State) - Introducing your mid-major darlings for 2011-12. The Blue Raiders are no fluke. The can score, defend, and are well coached. A couple more challenges before Sun Belt play starts with home tilts against Akron, Belmont (again) and Ole Miss. They also play at Vanderbilt in January. Unfortunately, they don't play the Vols. My only concern is that the offense simply won't be able to sustain its hot start. The Blue Raiders rank third nationally in effective FG (60%) and fourth in three-point shooting (46.1%). The good news is they have a very solid defense to fall back on.