Teddy's NBA Notes and Quotes: All that Jazz
By Teddy Covers
All that Jazz
There aren’t many ‘blind betting’ strategies that work across all professional sports. In fact, off the top of my head, I can only think of two. Betting on an elite level team coming off a couple of truly lousy performances is a solid money winner, year after year, whether that elite team is the Yankees, Patriots, Lakers or Red Wings. And betting on a team after they just fired their head coach is another long term, multi-sport money winner.
That was exactly the scenario we were looking at last Friday when the Jazz introduced Tyrone Corbin as their new head coach, one day after Jerry Sloan and his top assistant Phil Johnson stepped down after a remarkable 23 year run together leading the franchise. It’s worth noting that Corbin – a former player for Sloan and a longtime assistant himself -- did not have an interim tag next to his name. In other words, he’s the man already.
Teams tend to step up strong following a coaching change. The head coach was fired or walked away because of the players’ collective failures and any internal issues between players and their head coaches (most notably, the well publicized feud between Sloan and All Star point guard Deron Williams) immediately get wiped away, replaced by positive energy, hope and momentum.
Utah had gone just 4-10 SU and ATS in their last 14 ballgames before Sloan decided to walk. They lost repeatedly at Energy Solutions Arena during that span, including three straight at the hands of Chicago, Houston and Oklahoma City. This is the same Jazz team that averaged only seven home losses per season over the previous three years, enjoying one of the strongest home court edges in the league. I expected an inspired showing from the players and inspired energy from the fans against Phoenix on Friday night.
We saw an inspired effort from Utah in that game - for about 24 minutes. First half bettors cashed their Jazz tickets but the second half of that game was truly concerning for Utah supporters.
Utah looked lost on both ends of the court scoring only 27 points after halftime, turning a double-digit lead into a double-digit deficit. The offensive featured a lot of one-on-one basketball against an opponent not known for playing great team defense. The Jazz team defense was even worse, allowing dribble penetration and wide open perimeter looks. Utah was lethargic, the crowd was a non-factor, and the final minutes had a blowout feel, despite the relatively modest 12-point deficit.
So, the Jazz have stunk up the joint for weeks. A coaching change didn’t provide any sort of a spark, seemingly making things worse. At 31-24, Utah is tied for the No. 6 spot in the Western Conference, but this Corbin quote, talking about his initial challenges makes me think that this team is headed to the lottery, not the playoffs:
Corbin: I’ve got to “get them on the same page right away, to get them to understand that we still have a chance to make the playoffs and we still have a chance to do well in the playoffs….as soon as we can get everybody back on the same page, and continue to work -- or begin to work -- a little harder a little bit more at the goal of winning a championship, the better off we'll be.”
Sixers Tricks
The Philadelphia 76ers have been the single best pointspread team in the NBA this season despite starting 3-13 SU in their first 16 games. Since that time, first-year Sixers head coach Doug Collins has been throwing a pointspread party for Philly’s supporters.
Philly’s full season record might mislead bettors into thinking that they are a typical sub-.500 squad from the Eastern Conference – in other words, a ‘bet against’ team. But since that sluggish start, the Sixers have been a consistent under-the-radar juggernaut: 23-15 SU, 26-12 ATS in their last 38 ballgames. That sub .500 record has helped Philly retain their value throughout this consistent stretch of excellence.
The Sixers are getting better and better, showing no signs of stumbling as we approach the All Star break. They’ve won nine of their last 12 at the Wachovia Center, including impressive upset victories over San Antonio, Denver and Chicago. And after spending most of the season struggling to win games in SU fashion on the highway, Philly has now won four of its last five on the road after Saturday’s 20-point blowout at Minnesota.
The key to Philly’s most recent success has been their tremendous intensity on the defensive end of the court. They beat the Spurs despite scoring only 77 points.
That defensive intensity helps to explain Philly’s extreme pointspread success in short-lined games. The numbers don’t lie. The 76ers are 7-1 ATS as a favorite of less than four points and 10-4 ATS as an underdog of less than four points. There’s absolutely no reason to expect that particular angle to stop cashing tickets post-All Star break.
Dipping Clips
I hadn’t bet on the Cleveland Cavaliers once this season prior to their matchup with the L.A. Clippers last Friday night. I might not bet on Cleveland again in 2011. But that one game was a truly outstanding spot where the pointspread absolutely stood out like a sore thumb, because the Clippers were laying 4.5 points on the road. And that can’t happen against any team without me getting involved.
The Clippers are 14 games under .500 for the season. They are 4-20 SU on the road. Their best player, Eric Gordon (I know that Blake Griffin is an emerging star, and he sells tickets, but Gordon was their best player before he got hurt) has missed 13 games this year. The Clips are 3-10 SU without Gordon in the lineup and 1-9 SU on the highway without their leading scorer.
As I write this, the Clippers have won only one game on their current season-long 11 game Grammys Road Trip, at Madison Square Garden against the Knicks.
The Clips followed up that win against the Knicks with losses at Cleveland and Toronto leading point guard Baron Davis to say it’s “very humbling. We didn't play the defense we should be playing. We allowed too many easy baskets.”
Until Gordon returns, I’ll continue looking for opportunities to fade the Clips on the highway in pointspread ranges where they’ll need a win (or something pretty darn close) to cover the number.