The Big Ten Bubble
By Nelly's Sportsline
The Big Ten closed the 2009 season as one of the top rated conferences in terms of many of the computer ranking systems despite fighting the stronger reputations of the ACC and the Big East. Michigan State legitimized the strength rating of the conference with a run to the championship game as well. This year the expectations were high for the conference and the first ever victory in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge seemed to provide an early indication of success. The conference has produced four quality teams that are locks to be in the NCAA tournament but the conference has not been as deep as last season and the teams on the bubble could be facing uphill battles to get into the tournament. For the purposes of this article we are assuming there is not a major collapse in store for Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, or Wisconsin as all four of those teams can feel comfortable about their NCAA tournament position and should all be considered threats to still be playing past the first weekend of the Big Dance. These are the four teams that technically are still alive to fight for an at-large spot although it will not be an easy road for any of these teams to expand the Big Ten share of the bubble.
Illinois:
Illinois surged to the forefront of the conversation last week with a narrow win at home against Michigan State and then a shocking upset at Wisconsin, the first ever loss for the Badgers to an unranked Big Ten team in the Bo Ryan era. The Illini could not sustain that run however, losing by 19 at home to Ohio State. While Illinois can not feel secure in its NCAA tournament position, the Illini are still alive in the Big Ten title hunt for the moment with a 9-4 conference record. The schedule has been a big reason why however as the nine wins include home and road sweeps against Penn State, Iowa, and Indiana, easily the three worst teams in the conference. Illinois is just 3-4 against the rest of the league and three of the final five games will be against the top four in the conference as well as two critical games against fellow bubble teams.
The computer numbers will not do Illinois any favors at this point as its RPI sits in the low-70s. That number could improve even if Illinois has a few losses in the coming games as the overall strength of schedule will improve dramatically. Illinois has six wins against the top 100 RPI teams but also has seven losses and three shaky non-conference losses will likely haunt the team if they end up NIT bound. Early in the year Illinois lost neutral site games to Utah, Bradley, and Georgia, by a combined total of nine points. Wins at Clemson and at home against Vanderbilt help to soften that impact but Illinois will likely need another marquee win or two down the stretch, probably needing to go 3-2 in the final five games plus a respectable showing in the Big Ten tournament. 3-2 would allow Illinois to get to 12-6 in the Big Ten standings it would be nearly impossible to leave them out with that record in a well regarded league.
Northwestern:
Amazingly the Wildcats are the only BCS conference team to have never made the NCAA tournament in its current format. Actually every team other than South Florida has made the tournament at least five times and the Bulls have made it twice despite only recently joining a major conference. Last season Northwestern was very competitive and made a close run at the tournament but this year really looked like the year. An early season injury to Kevin Coble was a major blow to the team but the Wildcats still looked like a threat with a 10-1 start in the non-conference schedule. The Wildcats also had a favorable Big Ten schedule waiting with only one meeting each with powerhouses Ohio State and Purdue. Northwestern has played in plenty of close games but ultimately it will not be the close losses that keep them out of the tournament, rather stunning February losses at Iowa and at home against Penn State.
With eight losses in the conference Northwestern figures to be in tough shape as a .500 conference mark likely will not cut it among a tough field of bubble squads. The final three conference games are favorable match-ups for the Wildcats but Northwestern is at Wisconsin this weekend in what might be a game the team needs to get back into the conversation. Northwestern's profile has also been hurt by the teams that they beat early in the year as wins over Notre Dame, Iowa State, NC State, and Stanford all looked like quality wins at the time but now hold very little significance. Northwestern has a big win over Purdue under its belt and this team should be favored in its final four games hoping to get some momentum into the Big Ten tournament but they will likely need a serious run in Indianapolis to earn a potential shot in the Big Dance that also ends in Indianapolis. Northwestern's RPI currently sits in the 90s so there is no real chance for the Wildcats unless they win out and do some damage in the conference tournament to get back in the conversation.
Minnesota:
The Gophers were a tournament team last season and were regularly ranked early in the season in the national polls but the wheels have appeared to fall off for this program. The distractions have been many with the top two incoming recruits in off the court trouble, eventually leaving the program and also point guard and top defensive player Al Nolen being ruled ineligible midseason. The Gophers are just 6-7 in Big Ten games but the closing schedule would allow Minnesota to get back in the picture should they finish strong. This team looked left for dead following crippling losses at home against Michigan and at Northwestern in overtime but a convincing win over Wisconsin could spark a late push. There is tremendous talent on this team so a strong finish to get to at least 10-8 in conference play should not be ruled out.
The remaining schedule features three home games and two road games with the toughest home game coming against Purdue, a win the Gophers would absolutely need. Road games at Michigan and Illinois will be key bubble battles and Minnesota needs to take care of business against Indiana and Iowa, as the earlier upset loss to Indiana in overtime put a major dent in Minnesota's resume. A neutral site win over Butler will carry some weight but there are also losses to Portland and Miami in non-conference play. Getting back to the NCAA tournament is certainly a long shot for Minnesota given how inconsistent the team has been and considering how they have blown many games in the closing minutes but the path is there for Minnesota to have an opportunity as the schedule lines up with games that can really help the case.
Michigan:
With a 13-12 record it is hard to include Michigan on this list but the Wolverines have now won two in a row and will have the upset opportunities it needs to get back on the map. Michigan will play at Ohio State and at Michigan State, if they can win those games while taking care of business in the three remaining home games the Wolverines will be hard to ignore. Michigan has proven capable of a strong performance with three Big Ten road wins as well as a home win against Ohio State and a non-conference win against Connecticut. Losing to Kansas also helps the overall schedule ratings but ultimately there are far too many losses on the resume. Michigan has been a team that can beat anybody but can also lose to anybody so it would be too early to completely mail in the chances for this team.
There is no margin for error for Michigan but should the Wolverines win out they will finish 11-7 in conference play with wins over the likely top three teams in the conference including a sweep of Ohio State. The one-point loss to Michigan State and the blown lead at Wisconsin likely changed the trajectory of this team however as a win in either of those spots could have cancelled out a few of the ugly losses. This is a team that won a NCAA tournament game last season and could still be a threat in the Big Ten tournament should they finish well enough that there is still some hope and something to play for.
Ultimately this looks like a five-bid league with Illinois sitting in by far the best shape to be that fifth team. The Illini could be passed but it would take a miraculous run from one of the other fringe bubble teams and Illinois would not be immune to playing itself out of its tournament position as they face a brutally tough close to the regular season. The Big Ten may not be the deep league that many expected it to be this season but the top four teams all look legitimate and another Final Four team should be a strong possibility out of that group despite none of the four squads building separation as the frontrunner.