This Week's Best NBA Bets
Covers.com
Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best –and worst – basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.
For the week of Oct. 29 - Nov. 3
Hottest ATS - Philadelphia 76ers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)
Surprise, surprise. Philly was everyone's favorite tank job heading into the season but started the season with wins over the ho-hum Miami Heat, the sexy Washington Wizards and the Derrick Rose-led Chicago Bulls. The Sixers host the high-octane Golden State Warriors Monday, followed by home games against Washington and the Cleveland Cavs. Oh. Michael Carter-Williams is good.
Coldest ATS - Memphis Grizzlies (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS)
The Grizz are an overtime victory away from starting the campaign 0-3 SU. They started the season as road dogs in two games (at San Antonio, at Dallas) and failed to cover as 7.5-point home faves against the Detroit Pistons. The usually-reliable defense has sputtered out of the gate, allowing 106.7 points per game. Memphis will try to cash in for backers with a full week at home as the Celtics, Pelicans and Warriors stop by.
Best Over play - Dallas Mavericks (2-1 SU, 3-0 O/U)
The Mavs have started with a scorching offense that is averaging 111.3 points per game through the opening three games of the season. Add to that a defense that permits 107 points per game and you have a perfect formula for Overs. There is a possibility of some more Overs on tap for the Mavs as they host the Lakers Tuesday, the Thunder on Wednesday and the Timberwolves Friday.
Best Under play - Indiana Pacers (3-0 SU, 0-3 O/U)
A perfect start to season for the Pacers and a glorious start for an exceptionally good defense - both interior and perimeter. The Pacers are second best in the league, allowing 83.7 points per contest. They held the Cleveland Cavs to just 74 points in an 89-74 victory Saturday and through three games, the Pelicans are the only squad to reach 90 points against Indy thus far. The Pacers have a big week versus Eastern Conference foes with games against Detroit, Chicago, Toronto and Broolyn coming up.
Surveying the schedule:
The sharp-shooting Golden State Warriors embark on a long and grueling road trip this week. The miles could take a toll on one of the league's more uptempo offenses and fatigue could play a factor which could spell betting value. The Warriors start Monday night in Philly, followed by a trip to Minnesota Wednesday, then San Antonio Friday and Memphis Saturday. All tough opponents as well.
Coldest Offensive Starts to the Season
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The first week of the NBA season often results in some of the clunkiest, clumsiest basketball fans will see all year - and the 2013-14 campaign is no exception.
A handful of teams have had trouble generating much offense and that list includes clubs expected to rank among the highest-scoring units in the league. The sample size may be small, but further struggles may be cause for concern.
Here are four teams that could use some offensive fine-tuning:
New York Knicks (92 points per game; O/U: 2-2-0)
The Knicks are only going to go as far as their up-and-down offense will take them. And through the first four games of the season, that offense has them 1-3 and struggling for answers. Star forward Carmelo Anthony is shooting just 37.1 percent from the field and isn't getting much help from a meager supporting staff. The loss of Tyson Chandler to a fractured fibula will only hamper the Knicks further, since it forces them to either give Amar'e Stoudemire or Kenyon Martin more minutes or play (gasp) Andrea Bargnani in the middle - a move that almost certainly won't end well.
Denver Nuggets (93.3 ppg; O/U: 1-2-0)
The Nuggets look nothing like the team that led the NBA in scoring a season ago, favoring a half-court attack over the up-tempo assault they rode to a 57-win campaign. The departure of Andre Iguodala and a major injury to Danilo Gallinari has severely dampened Denver's ability to run the floor, resulting in far fewer transition baskets. The secondary scoring should improve - no player other than Ty Lawson is averaging more than 11 points per game - but fans hoping for a return to last year's triple-digit explosions will likely be disappointed.
San Antonio Spurs (99.8 ppg; O/U: 2-2-0)
While coming up just shy of 100 points per game is nothing to complain about, it pales slightly in comparison to the 103-point average the Spurs had last season. The explanation for the modest scoring drop is simpler here than in other examples: the Spurs are taking - and making - fewer 3-pointers than they did in 2012-13. San Antonio averaged better than eight 3s on 21.5 attempts last year and are at just 6.5 3-pointers on 17.3 attempts so far this season. If Danny Green (22.2 percent) can find his long-range stroke - and history says he will - the Spurs will be back over 100 soon.
Sacramento Kings (94.5 ppg; O/U: 2-2-0)
This seems more like the real Kings, as opposed to the often-dysfunctional but strangely-effective unit that boasted a Top-10 scoring average last season. With their most accurate perimeter shooter from last season (Tyreke Evans) now playing for New Orleans, guard Isaiah Thomas has actually emerged as a solid No. 1 option, averaging better than 20 points on 49 percent shooting. It's the rest of the key players - aside from all-world center DeMarcus Cousins - that have regressed, resulting in the Kings shooting just 41 percent from the field. Expect it to get worse, as Thomas isn't likely to stay hot all year.
Home Dogs Cashing In At 17-9 ATS Clip
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Home underdogs in the NBA have been off to a hot start to the season against the spread.
Through 26 games, home dogs have complied a 17-9 record ATS, which is a winning percentage of almost 66 percent.
There is one home dog in action tonight as the Dallas Mavericks head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks. The Mavericks are favored by 2.5 points, while the Bucks are 3-1 ATS through the early part of the season.
The Mavericks are 0-3 ATS on the road to start the new NBA campaign.