This Week's Best NBA Bets
Covers.com
Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best - and worst - basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.
For the week of Nov. 11-17
Hottest ATS - Chicago Bulls (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)
After a sluggish start to the season, Derrick Rose and the Chicago Bulls have seemed to shake off the rust. The Bulls started the season 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread, but since have gone on a four-game winning streak, covering the spread in each game. During the winning streak, the Bulls have done what they do best - play defense. They are holding teams to 90 ppg and just 40.3 percent shooting from the floor, ranking them third and second respectively. This week will be a tough test for the red-hot Bulls. They face the scrappy Charlotte Bobcats at home before kicking off a west coast road trip Thursday in Denver.
Coldest ATS - Orlando Magic (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS)
After a hot start to the season which saw the Orlando Magic go 3-2 SU and an impressive 5-0 ATS, the Magic have lost their touch. They have gone 1-4 in their last five games and haven't covered in that span. Last week the Magic gave up 106.3 ppg, which included 120 points in a loss to the offensively deficient Boston Celtics. This week, the Magic play a home-and-home series with the Miami Heat before ending the week against the Phoenix Suns, who are still lighting it up against the spread with a 7-1-1 record this season.
Best over play - Los Angeles Clippers (3-0 SU, 3-0 O/U)
The team formerly know as 'Lob City' returned to their high-flying ways this week, notching some big wins at home against good competition. The Clippers
defeated Western Conference contenders Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder as well as knocking off the Brooklyn Nets. The Clippers averaged 110 ppg over that span. The schedule doesn't get any easier for the Clippers though. They play five games next week, including rematches on the road against the Wolves and Thunder. They have home games against the Memphis Grizzlies, the Sacramento Kings and the Chicago Bulls. The Clippers have hit the Over in all five home games this season.
Best under play - San Antonio Spurs (3-0 SU, 0-3 O/U)
It has quietly been business as usual for the San Antonio Spurs, who are tied with the Indiana Pacers for the best record in the NBA at 9-1. They have also been a solid under play all season, hitting the Under seven times in 10 games. They have done this by playing excellent defense and being efficient on offense. The Spurs rank second and fourth, in points per game and field goal percentage respectively. They are also shooting 47.6 percent from the floor, good for fifth in the NBA. This week the Spurs take on the Boston Celtics at home, the Memphis Grizzlies on the road and finish of the week at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers. They are all ranked 24th or worse in scoring this season.
Surveying the schedule:
The Philadelphia 76ers have been a solid over play this season going 8-3. Their fast pace style of play has made them a great target for Over bettors. They rank eighth in the league in scoring at 104.5 ppg and last in the NBA in points against, giving up 111.1. The 76ers start this week at Dallas then return home to take on Toronto. Toronto and Dallas are a combined 12-8 O/U.
A look at the Chicago Bulls' recent circus road trip history
Covers.com
It's never a good time for the Chicago Bulls to spend two weeks away from the United Center, but this year's edition of the circus road trip couldn't have come at a worse point in the season.
Chicago will embark on its annual circus voyage, when the circus kicks the team out of town for a few weeks, with just one win in its first four road games. Compare that to a perfect 5-0 mark in their own building and it's easy to see why the Bulls might prefer to send Barnum and Bailey packing this year. That said, the Bulls have actually fared better during the road trip in recent years - making them an intriguing play over that two-week stretch.
Chicago opens this extended away stretch as 1-point road favorites in Denver Thursday night.
Here's a look at how the Bulls have fared on their most recent circus road trips:
2003-04 to 2006-07: 5-20 SU, 11-14 ATS
Chicago was trounced in five straight games in 2003-04 but actually covered in three of the five defeats. The Bulls went 1-6 SU the following year, but only covered three times. The 2005-06 trip saw a decent turnaround - the Bulls went 3-3 SU and ATS - but was followed by a 1-6 trek the next season, a stretch in which the Bulls covered just twice. That included losing by 10 to the L.A. Lakers as a three-point dog, and dropping a 15-point decision in Philadelphia despite being installed as a 1 1/2-point fave.
2007-08 to 2009-10: 5-14 SU, 7-12 ATS
After carrying on the tradition of struggling on the circus trip - going 1-5 SU and ATS in 2007-08 - Chicago fans had high hopes when the Bulls went on to use the first pick in the 2008 draft on standout point guard Derrick Rose. The circus trip results improved - but only barely. The Bulls went 3-4 the following season - while actually finishing 4-3 ATS - but regressed in 2009-10, losing the final five games of the six-game trek while covering just twice. Four of the five defeats were by a margin of 15 points or more.
2010-11 to 2012-12: 6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS
The most recent Bulls seasons don't provide as much value when trying to assess the team's performance during the lengthy trip. For one thing, there was no trek during the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season; the schedule didn't kick off until well after Barnum and Bailey had vacated the arena. Additionally, Rose suffered a knee injury at the end of that campaign and sat out all of 2012-13. The results do, however, tell bettors that this edition of the Bulls was far more formidable than in years past. The team went 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS in 2010-11, and was a ho-hum 2-3 SU and ATS last season.
Summary
It's difficult to know how the Bulls are going to perform. But given the steady roster improvement over the past few seasons, the fact that the roster is relatively healthy and that Rose continues to show improvement in his recovery from major knee surgery, Chicago should be a difficult opponent for all six teams it faces on its annual circus road trip. And you certainly couldn't have said that nine or 10 years ago.