This Week's Best NBA Bets
Covers.com
Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best - and worst - basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.
For the week of Dec. 1 to 7.
Hottest ATS - Detroit Pistons (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)
The Pistons have really revved up their game of late, winning four games in a row, which included a three game road trip with stops in Miami and Chicago. Detroit has now covered in six of the past eight games and are in second place in the Central Division. Andre Drummond has been an absolute monster for the Pistons during the winning streak, averaging 18.3 points and 17.5 rebounds per game. This week the Pistons host a rematch with the Heat, then they face off against Minnesota at home, before heading on the road to take on New Orleans and then Brooklyn back at home.
Coldest ATS - Philadelphia 76ers (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS)
After the 76ers impressive start to the season, they have really struggled of late, winning only once in their past seven games and they haven't covered the spread six games in a row. On defense the Sixers are giving up a league worst 110.2 points per game and are the second to last team in the league when it comes to defensive rebounding. At the offensive end the Sixers are really struggling to sink the 3-ball, only shooting 32 percent from downtown. This week the Sixers host the L.A. Clippers, then go on the road to face Minnesota and Toronto, before returning home to take on Portland.
Best Over play - Portland Trail Blazers (4-1 SU, 5-0 O/U)
The Blazers continue to play great basketball after notching wins against top contenders Oklahoma City and Indiana this week. Portland now sits atop the Northwest Division with a 17-4 record and are the second highest scoring team in the NBA, netting 106.2 points per game. In fact,they also rank in the top 10 in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, free throw percentage and offensive rebounds per game. The Blazers will look to hit the Over for the seventh time in a row this week when they take on Utah, before matchups with Houston and Philadelphia.
Best Under play - Charlotte Bobcats (1-2 SU, 1-2 O/U)
Despite the fact the Bobcats hit the over once this week, they are still the best Under play in the NBA this season and are the best Under play in Bank Shots two weeks in a row. The Bobcats have done this by going 11-1-1 O/U in their last 13 games and that trend should still be a solid play going forward thanks to their combination of good defense and lousy offense. The Bobcats are second in the league in points against per game at 91.5, but are dead last in points per game, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. This week the Bobcats face Golden State, Orlando, Indiana and the L.A. Lakers.
Surveying the Schedule:
Can we just fast forward to the Eastern Conference Final please? The Miami Heat at 15-5 and the Indiana Pacers at 18-2 are clearly the class of the conference and it would be nice if we could skip past all these needless regular season games and jump straight to the playoffs. The two teams meet on Tuesday in Miami for the first time since the Heat eliminated the Pacers in last year's conference finals. The Heat are 10-10 ATS and 11-9 O/U, while the Pacers are now a league best 15-5 ATS and 7-13 O/U.
NBA Betting: Examining Home/Away ATS Differentials
By Covers.com
Some NBA teams play the best at home while some can only seem to get it done away from the office, here is a look at some of the biggest gaps between home and away value based on this year's ATS records to date.
Toronto Raptors (2-7 home, 5-4 away)
The Toronto Raptors just haven't been able to get it done at the ACC in the early stages of 2013. Playing in the laughable Atlantic Division the Raptors are just 2-7 ATS at home. Things have been better away with a 5-4 record, but the Raptors do have their problems on the road as well so they are by no means a lock at any venue in the NBA this season, if you were to pick them to cover on the road would be the spot to do it.
The Raptors play the Lakers on the road Sunday, with Toronto boasting former USC Trojan and Compton native DeMar DeRozan, there could be value in a Sunday Raptors play.
Los Angeles Lakers (7-2-1 home, 5-4 away)
Toronto's opponent on Sunday, the Lakers are even better ATS at home then the Raptors are on the road despite not being able to carry the same ATS reputation on the road Los Angeles is money at the Staples Center. 7-2-1 without Kobe Bryant in the lineup, Lakers' backers have been rewarded for having faith in a team missing their star. All of that can change with Kobe back in the lineup, if the Black Mamba is rusty and the lines go more in the Lakers favor it could plummet back to earth.
Phoenix Suns (5-3-1 home, 9-2 away)
The rebuilding Suns have been one of the best ATS teams in the league, but they are the most solid away from the desert. A 5-3-1 home record is good, but 9-2 ATS on the road is nearly as good as you can get. It is so good it likely won't last forever, especially once the rebuilding Suns get tired of being out of the playoff race.
Atlanta Hawks (7-3 home, 6-5 away)
Despite their reputation for having low fan support, the Atlanta Hawks have been solid as hosts in the first months of the season. 7-3 at home, the Hawks are a just over .500 team ATS away from Atlanta. Perhaps it is the city nightlife that is giving the Hawks an advantage.
Charlotte Bobcats (5-6 home, 7-1-1 away)
A trend that has been so good for so long and is probably going to be ending with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's broken hand, the Charlotte Bobcats stellar away record. The Bobcats have only lost money once away from North Carolina, but without their promising guard that could change quickly.
Houston Rockets (7-4-1 home, 5-4 away)
Another city with an urban legend of having some great NBA nightlife, Houston are 7-4-1 home this season while holding a 5-4 ATS record on the road. The Rockets are a team on the rise and should be one of the teams in the Western Conference playoffs at the end of the season. 9-3 straight up at home I expect the Rockets value at home to continue.
NBA Betting Report
Sportspic.com
Looking at how NBA action has panned out for sports bettors the NBA Betting Database tells us the most profitable teams vs the betting line are Pacers cashing 15-of-20 tickets, Blazers at 15-6 and Suns sporting a 14-5-1 ATS mark. The least profitable NBA teams at this juncture are Grizzlies at 6-12-1 ATS with Bucks, Cavaliers both a cash draining 6-14 on the campaign.
Overall, favorites have been a losing cause as chalks have recorded a 140-152-5 mark against-the-oddsmaker split between 87-109-3 for home faves, 53-43-2 for roadies laying points. Inside those number, not all favorites can be painted with the same cash draining brush. The most profitable favorite vs the betting line are Pacers posting a 6-3 record on home court, a near perfect 6-1 mark when traveling. Honourable mention goes to Rockets as favorite treating backers with a 7-4-1 mark on home court, 3-2 ATS record as road favorite. The least profitable teams laying points are Cavaliers (0-7), Kings (0-6) and Nets (3-8).
On the other side of the equation, Suns lead the underdog group with a profitable 11-3 mark and as expected most gains are made on the road with desert dogs cashing 8-of-10 tickets. The Lakers (10-6-1), Bobcats (10-5-1) are two other dogs with bite. You won't get much bang for the buck (pun intended) backing Milwaukee (6-13) or Grizzlies (2-7) in an underdog roll especially in front of respective home crowds as Bucks are 2-7 in the situation, Knicks 0-4 ATS.
The NBA team that is averaging the most points per game are Rockets netting 107.9 points every time they take the floor with Bobcats at the bottom of the rung scoring a lowly 89.6 per/contest. Defensively, the Pacers lead the league surrendering a messily 88.1 per/game while Sixers are the dregs in this department allowing opponents a whopping 110.2 points/contest. No surprise Bobcats (5-14-1 O/U), Pacers (7-13 O/U) are the best 'Under' plays with Blazers (15-6 O/U), Sixers (14-7 O/U) an 'Over' bettors dream.
NBA East vs West
Sportspic.com
What is happening with teams in the NBA Eastern Conference. Entering Sunday action only three teams, the Pacers (18-2), Heat (15-5), Hawks (11-10) have a record greater than .500. On the other hand, the Western Conference has ten teams playing better than .500 hoops lead by Blazers (17-4), Spurs (15-4) and Thunder (14-4). Have the East square off against the West it's almost laughable as the East has posted a lowly 30-65 straight-up record. Include what is the great equalizer (point-spread) the East still fails miserably with it's cash draining 42.1% mark at the betting window (40-54-1 ATS). A tired East team when these two Conferences face off is a recipe for disaster as the East is just 3-19 SU in back-2-backs cashing at a 36.4% clip (8-14 ATS).